MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBPUSD Retains Bullish Theme, Cycle Highs in View

Price Signal Summary – GBPUSD Retains Bullish Theme, Cycle Highs in View

• S&P E-minis remain above the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4103.05. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4206.25, the May 1 high. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the bull trend that started Mar 13. Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding on to the bulk of its most recent gains and price remains above support at 4231.60, the 50-day EMA. The recent move down is considered corrective and the broader uptrend remains intact. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of 4363.00, the Apr 21 high and bull trigger.
• The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Recent cycle highs maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 1.2767 next, a Fibonacci retracement. USDJPY short-term conditions appear bearish despite the latest recovery. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and price pierced support at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 134.00. A clear breach of this EMA would undermine the recent bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback. AUDUSD maintains a short-term positive tone following recent gains above the 50-day EMA. The focus is on key resistance at 0.6806, Apr 14 high. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bullish case and open 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement.
• Gold remains in an uptrend despite last Friday’s move lower. The yellow metal has breached resistance at $2048.7, the Apr 13 high to confirm a resumption of the broader bull cycle. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up. WTI futures remain bearish despite the strong recovery from $63.64, the May 4. The trend condition was oversold last week and the recovery is allowing this to unwind. Initial resistance is at $73.93, the Apr 28 low ahead of $76.92, the Apr 28 high.
• Bund futures continue to correct and retrace the upleg between Apr 19 - May 4. Trend conditions remain bullish. A resumption of gains would open 137.55, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would expose 138.09, the Apr 6 high. Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday and breached support at 100.37, the May 2 low. The move exposes key support at 99.73, the Apr 19 low. A break of this level would cancel recent bullish developments and highlight a resumption of the downtrend that started on Mar 20.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.1225 1.236 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 2: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1054/95 High May 8 / High Apr 26 and key resistance
• PRICE: 1.0976 @ 05:37 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 1.0941 Low May 9
• SUP 2: 1.0909 Low Apr 17
• SUP 3: 1.0890/31 50-day EMA / Low Apr 10
• SUP 4: 1.0788 Low Apr 3

EURUSD traded lower Tuesday and pierced support at 1.0942, the Apr 26 low. A continuation lower and a clear break of 1.0942 would signal scope for a deeper correction and open 1.0890, the 50-day EMA. The uptrend remains intact and a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.1095, the Apr 26 high and a bull trigger. A break of this level would resume the uptrend and open 1.1127, a Fibonacci projection.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.2877 High Apr 25 2022
• RES 3: 1.2780 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2767 61.8% of the Jun 1 ‘21 - Sep 26 ‘22 downtrend
• RES 1: 1.2669 High May 8
• PRICE: 1.2622 @ 05:56 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 1.2548/2504 Low May 4 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2436 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10
• SUP 4: 1.2275 Low Apr 3

The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Recent cycle highs maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 1.2767 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode set-up and this highlights a clear uptrend. Support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 1.2504.

EURGBP TECHS: Fresh YTD Lows

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 0.8798 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8803 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8725/68 High May 9 / 5
• PRICE: 0.8692 @ 06:10 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 0.8678 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.8649 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 0.8593 Low Dec 15 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8562 Low Dec 13 2022

EURGBP maintains a bearish tone and printed fresh YTD lows Tuesday. The cross has cleared key support at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low, strengthening bearish conditions. This confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 3 and opens 0.8649, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8835, the May 3 high. A break would ease a bearish threat. Key short-term resistance is far off at 0.8875, the Apr 25 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present Despite Recent Bounce

• RES 4: 139.59 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Jan bear cycle
• RES 3: 138.17 High Dec 15
• RES 2: 136.63/137.91 High May 3 / High Mar 8 and key resistance
• RES 1: 135.64 50.0% retracement of the May 2 - 4 bear leg
• PRICE: 135.33 @ 06:23 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 134.58/133.50 Low May 9 / 5
• SUP 2: 133.02 Low Apr 26 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 132.75 61.8% retracement of the Mar 24 - May 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: 132.02 Low Apr 13

USDJPY short-term conditions appear bearish despite the latest recovery. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and price pierced support at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 134.00. A clear breach of this EMA would undermine the recent bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback. Key resistance is unchanged at 137.91, the Mar 8 high. Initial firm resistance is at 136.63, the May 3 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 152.81 1.50 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 149.27/150.39 High May 8 / 3
• PRICE: 148.39 @ 06:55 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 147.13 Low May 4
• SUP 2: 146.92 Low Apr 28
• SUP 3: 146.29 Low Apr 25 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 145.82 50-day EMA

The Recent move lower in EURJPY resulted in a print below the 20-day EMA, currently at 147.76. A continuation lower and a clear break of this average would expose key support at 146.29, the Apr 25 low, ahead of the 50-day EMA which intersects at 145.92. The move lower is considered corrective and trend signals continue to highlight an uptrend. Key resistance is at 151.61, May 2 high. Initial resistance is 149.27, Monday’s high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bulls Eyeing Key Resistance

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 0.6806 High Apr 14 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6766 @ 07:58 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 0.6697 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6640/6565 Low May 4
• SUP 3: 0.6565 Low Mar 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6547 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

AUDUSD maintains a short-term positive tone following recent gains above the 50-day EMA. The focus is on key resistance at 0.6806, Apr 14 high. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bullish case and open 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support to watch lies at 0.6565, Mar 10 low. Clearance of this level would be bearish and would instead resume the downtrend that started Feb 2.

USDCAD TECHS: Key S/T Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3525/3640 50-day EMA / High May 3
• RES 1: 1.3473 Low Apr 21
• PRICE: 1.3378 @ 08:01 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 1.3315 Low May 8
• SUP 2: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 1.3275 Low Feb 14
• SUP 4: 1.3262 Low Feb 2

USDCAD remains soft following last week’s sell-off and the bearish acceleration on Friday. Price has recently breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this suggests scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on 1.3302, the Apr 14 low where a break would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.3275, the Feb 14 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 1.3525, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 138.09 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 137.55 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 136.21/137.22 High May 8 / 4
• PRICE: 135.08 @ 07:50 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 135.02 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 134.35 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 133.64 Low Apr 28
• SUP 4: 133.10 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger

Bund futures continue to correct and retrace the upleg between Apr 19 - May 4. Trend conditions remain bullish. A resumption of gains would open 137.55, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would expose 138.09, the Apr 6 high. On the downside, the next support to watch lies at 134.35, the May 2 low. A break of this level would expose key support at 133.10 instead, the Apr 19 low.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 120.130 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 119.621 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 downleg
• RES 2: 119.190 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 118.530/119.120 High May 8 / 4
• PRICE: 118.000 @ 07:51 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 117.930 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 117.871 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 117.370 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 116.890/420 Low Apr 28 / 19 and the bear trigger

A bullish theme in Bobl futures remains intact and the most recent pullback is considered corrective. The contract last week cleared 118.030, the Apr 26 high, and this confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Apr 19. The focus is on a climb towards 119.190 next, the Apr 6 high and 119.621, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support has been defined at 116.420, the Apr 19 low. Initial firm support is at 117.871, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 106.533 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.271 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 106.190 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 105.905/106.120 High May 8 / 4
• PRICE: 105.735 @ 05:30 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 105.669/475 20-day EMA / Low May 2
• SUP 2: 105.350 Low Apr 28
• SUP 3: 105.165 Low Apr 19 / 24 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 105.030 Low Mar 15

Schatz futures bullish conditions remain intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The focus is on a climb towards 106.190, the Apr 6 high and 106.271, a Fibonacci retracement point. Price has recently cleared resistance at the 20-day EMA, reinforcing bullish conditions. Key support has been defined at 105.165, the Apr 24 / 19 low. Initial firm support lies at 105.669, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 103.53 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 102.99 High Apr 14
• RES 2: 102.63 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 101.62/102.46 20-day EMA / High May 3
• PRICE: 100.33 @ Close May 9
• SUP 1: 100.12 Low May 9
• SUP 2: 99.73 Low Apr 19 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 99.55 Low Mar 8
• SUP 4: 99.20 Low Feb 28 and key support

Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday and breached support at 100.37, the May 2 low. The move exposes key support at 99.73, the Apr 19 low. A break of this level would cancel recent bullish developments and highlight a resumption of the downtrend that started on Mar 20. This would open 99.20, the Feb 28 low. On the upside, the contract needs to clear 102.46, the May 3 high to reinstate a bullish theme.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 116.97 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 116.17 76.4% retracement of the Mar 24 - Apr 24 downleg
• RES 1: 115.19/84 High May 8 / 4
• PRICE: 114.20 @ Close May 9
• SUP 1: 113.98 Low May 8
• SUP 2: 113.70 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 112.93/89 Low Apr 24 / 61.8% of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 4: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally

BTP futures remain in a short-term bull cycle and the latest pullback is still considered corrective. The next support to watch lies at 113.70, the May 2 low. A resumption of gains would open 116.17 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would expose 116.97, the Apr 6 high ahead of key resistance at 117.17, the Mar 24 high. Key support has been defined at 112.93, the Apr 24 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4520.00 High June 2001 (cont)
• RES 3: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4363.00 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4313.00 @ 06:24 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 4233.00 Low May 4
• SUP 2: 4231.60 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding on to the bulk of its most recent gains and price remains above support at 4231.60, the 50-day EMA. The recent move down is considered corrective and the broader uptrend remains intact. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of 4363.00, the Apr 21 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to signal a top.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Key Short-Term Support Still Intact

• RES 4: 4288.00 High Aug 19 2022
• RES 3: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 2: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 1: 4163.25/4206.25 High May 5 / 1
• PRICE: 4135.50 @ 06:50 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 4062.25 Low May 4 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 4052.50 Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: 4022.75 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - May 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4006.00 Low Mar 29

S&P E-minis remain above the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4103.05. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4206.25, the May 1 high. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the bull trend that started Mar 13. Key support has been defined at 4062.25, the May 4 low. A move through this support would be bearish.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N3) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $82.88 - High Apr 25
• RES 3: $79.95 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $78.49 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $77.50 - High May 9
• PRICE: $76.96 @ 06:55 BST May 10
• SUP 1: $74.95/71.28 - Low May 4
• SUP 2: $70.10 - Low May 8 / Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

Recent gains in Brent futures are considered corrective and this recent recovery is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. The impulsive bearish wave that started Apr 12 signals scope for a test of key support at $70.10, the Mar 20 low. A break of this level would reinforce bearish conditions. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at $78.49, the 20-day EMA ahead of $79.95, the 50-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (M3) Latest Recovery Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $81.24 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.18 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.92 - High Apr 28 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $73.93 - Low Apr 28
• PRICE: $73.16 @ 07:03 BST May 10
• SUP 1: $68.48/63.64 - Low May 5 / 4
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021
• SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $57.63 - Low Apr 5 2021

WTI futures remain bearish despite the strong recovery from $63.64, the May 4. The trend condition was oversold last week and the recovery is allowing this to unwind. Initial resistance is at $73.93, the Apr 28 low ahead of $76.92, the Apr 28 high. On the downside, the recent print below $64.58, the Mar 20 low and a key support, reinforces a bearish theme. A clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend.

GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $2100.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 2: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $2063.0 - High May 4
• PRICE: $2029 1 07:15 BST May 10
• SUP 1: $1999.6 - Low May 5
• SUP 2: $1969.3/1964.2 - Low Apr 19 and key support / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1934.3 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: $1900.0 - Round number support

Gold remains in an uptrend despite last Friday’s move lower. The yellow metal has breached resistance at $2048.7, the Apr 13 high to confirm a resumption of the broader bull cycle. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up. The focus is on $2070.4, the Mar 8 high ahead of the all-time high at $2075.5. Key support is 1969.3, the Apr 19 low.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $26.943 - High Mar 8 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $26.135 - High May 5
• PRICE: $25.552 @ 07:25 BST May 10
• SUP 1: $24.492 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: $24.264 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.572 - Low Apr 3
• SUP 4: $22.828 - Low Mar 28

Silver is consolidating but remains in an uptrend and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The metal has traded above resistance at $26.088, the Apr 14 high. A continuation higher would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open $26.222, the Apr 18 2022 high. On the downside, a key near-term support to watch is $24.492, the Apr 25 low. A clear breach would signal scope for a deeper (corrective) pullback.