MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBPUSD Weakness Marks Resumption of Downtrend

Price Signal Summary – GBPUSD Weakness Marks Resumption of Downtrend

• S&P E-Minis traded lower again Thursday but did find support at the day low of 3723.75 and closed near the session high. The outlook remains bearish, following the reversal from 3950.00, the Jun 28 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to trade above 3343.00, Jul 5 low. The primary trend direction is down and any short-term gains would be considered corrective. The recent breach of 3384.00, Jun 16 low, reinforced bearish conditions and highlights a resumption of the downtrend, opening 3321.30.
• EURUSD trend conditions remain bearish and the pair resumed its slide Thursday. Support at parity and 0.9973, the base of the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high, were breached Thursday. GBPUSD traded lower Thursday and delivered another fresh trend low, at 1.1760. This marks an extension of last week’s move lower that resulted in a break of a recent bear trigger at 1.1934, Jun 14 low. USDJPY traded higher once again Thursday. The break confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• Gold remains in a downtrend and traded to a fresh trend low on Thursday. This marks a continuation of the recent sell-off that has resulted in the break of a key S/T support and bear trigger at $1787.00, May 16 low. WTI futures traded lower Thursday to confirm a resumption of the current downtrend. Price however did recover from the low of the day and yesterday’s close was near the session high.
• Bund futures are trading closer to recent highs and remain in an uptrend, following Tuesday’s high print above resistance at 152.92, the Jul 6 high. This confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures is unchanged and remains bullish. The most recent pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16 - price cleared resistance at 114.55, the Jun 24 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 1.0512 Bull channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 3: 1.0449 High Jul 5
• RES 2: 1.0290/0359 20-day EMA / Low Jun 15
• RES 1: 1.0122/0191 High Jul 13 / High Jul 8
• PRICE: 1.0028 @ 06:07 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 2: 0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.9863 Dec 2002 low
• SUP 4: 0.9785 2.00 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD trend conditions remain bearish and the pair resumed its slide Thursday. Support at parity and 0.9973, the base of the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high, were breached Thursday. This strengthens the current bearish case and attention turns to 0.9944, a Fibonacci projection. Clearance of this level would open 0.9883. Initial resistance has been defined at 1.0122, the Jul 13 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Trend Intact

• RES 4: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 3: 1.2213 High Jun 29
• RES 2: 1.2056/2069 High Jul 8 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1967 High Jul 13
• PRICE: 1.1824 @ 06:21 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 1.1760 Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1640 Low Mar 25 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1503 Low Mar 24 2020

GBPUSD traded lower Thursday and delivered another fresh trend low, at 1.1760. This marks an extension of last week’s move lower that resulted in a break of a recent bear trigger at 1.1934, Jun 14 low. It also maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The focus shifts to 1.1673 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is seen at 1.2069, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 3: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Jun 15 / bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8627/79 High Jul 4 / High Jul 1
• RES 1: 0.8519 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8475 @ 06:29 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 0.8403 Low Jul 13
• SUP 2: 0.8393 Low May 17 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8367 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 0.8313 Low Apr 22

EURGBP conditions still appear bearish and the cross remains below the 50-day EMA. Wednesday’s move lower reinforces the current bearish threat. Scope is seen for a deeper retracement and attention is on support at 0.8393, the May 17 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish case. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 0.8519, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a possible reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Bull Trend Extends

• RES 4: 141.47 1.382 proj of the Jun 16 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 140.71 1.236 proj of the Jun 16 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 2: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 139.48 1.00 proj of the Jun 16 - 22 - 23 price swing
• PRICE: 138.96 @ 06:43 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 137.28 Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 135.88/134.27 20-day EMA / Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: 133.70 Bull channel base from the Mar 4 low
• SUP 4: 132.92 50-day EMA

USDJPY traded higher once again Thursday. The break confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies remain in bull mode condition and this clearly highlights current market sentiment. The focus is on 139.48, a Fibonacci projection ahead of the psychological 140.00 handle. On the downside, the 20-day EMA, at 135.88, marks initial firm support.

EURJPY TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 144.28 High Jun 28 and key resistance
• RES 3: 142.37 High Jul 5
• RES 2: 141.40 Low Jun 24
• RES 1: 139.79 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 139.34 @ 06:52 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 136.87 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 136.25 Low May 30
• SUP 3: 135.40 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 28 climb
• SUP 4: 134.81 3.0% 10-dma envelope

EURJPY remains above its recent lows. The cross still appears vulnerable following the reversal from 144.28, the Jun 28 high. Price remains below the 20- and 50-day EMAs and has recently traded below support at 137.85. A clear breach of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and open 136.25, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 139.79, the 20-day EMA ahead of 142.37, the July 5 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh Trend Low

• RES 4: 0.7003 High Jun 16
• RES 3: 0.6977 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6874 High Jul 8
• RES 1: 0.6858 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6733 @ 07:18 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 0.6682 Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6588 Low May 28 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6538 Low May 26 2020

AUDUSD traded to a fresh trend low Thursday. The pair remains bearish and this week’s move lower reinforces bearish conditions. Support at 0.6762, the Jul 5 / 6 low and 0.6759, 50.0% of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 bull cycle, have been breached. The break sets the scene for a move towards 0.6647 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 0.6858, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Fresh YTD High

• RES 4: 1.3300 High Nov 4 2020
• RES 3: 1.3247 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3224 High Jul 14
• RES 1: 1.3166 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• PRICE: 1.3126 @ 08:14 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 1.2936/32 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 1.2868 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2819 Low Jun 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.2763 Low Jun 13

USDCAD surged Thursday and in the process confirmed a clear break of resistance at 1.3084, the Jul 5 high. The break confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend, paving the way for gains towards a vol band based resistance of 1.3247 and the 1.3300 handle further out. Moving average studies remain a bull mode condition, reinforcing the current positive outlook. Key support has been defined at 1.2936, the Jul 8 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 155.01 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 154.65 High May 27
• RES 2: 154.00 Round number
• RES 1: 153.48 High Jul 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 152.87 @ 05:01 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 150.85/149.75 50-day EMA / Low Jul 11
• SUP 2: 148.24 Low Jul 1
• SUP 3: 146.50 Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 144.72 Low Jun 28 and a key support

Bund futures are trading closer to recent highs and remain in an uptrend, following Tuesday’s high print above resistance at 152.92, the Jul 6 high. This confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The break higher also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and attention is on the 154.00 handle next ahead of 154.65, the May 27 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 149.75, the July 11 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 127.160 High May 12
• RES 3: 126.879 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 126.710 High May 26
• RES 1: 126.560 High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 126.010 @ 05:08 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 124.648 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 123.010 Low Jun 30
• SUP 3: 121.910 Low Jun 28 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 120.990 Low Jun 21

A bull cycle in Bobl futures still appears to be in play and attention is on resistance at 126.560, the Jul 6 high and the next bull trigger. The recent breach of 123.960, the Jun 24 high, confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend and price has established a positive sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 126.710, the May 26 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 121.190, Jun 28 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 110.412 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 110.256 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 110.063 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 110.005 High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 109.680 @ 05:24 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 109.270 Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 108.760/425 Low Jun 30 / Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: 108.025 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 107.705 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger

Schatz futures remain below recent highs. The short-term outlook however is unchanged and the trend needle points north. The contract has recently cleared 109.030, the Jun 24 high. This marked an extension of a corrective cycle and price has established a bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 110.063, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 108.425, Jun 28 low.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 118.63 High May 24
• RES 3: 118.16 1.382 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 2: 117.48 1.236 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 1: 117.09 High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 115.63 @ Close Jul 14
• SUP 1: 114.08/113.03 Low Jul 8 / Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 111.72 Low Jun 29 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 110.57 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 109.89 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger

The short-term outlook in Gilt futures is unchanged and remains bullish. The most recent pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16 - price cleared resistance at 114.55, the Jun 24 high. A resumption of strength would open 117.48 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 111.72, the Jun 29 low. A break of this level would be bearish.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Bull Flag

• RES 4: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.00 High May 12
• RES 2: 127.79 High May 26
• RES 1: 126.41 High Jul 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 123.22 @ Close Jul 14
• SUP 1: 121.96 Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 119.81 Low Jun 28 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 4: 115.72 Low Jun 16

BTP futures traded lower Thursday but did find support at the session low and price remains inside the recent range. The current consolidation appears to be a bull flag formation. The short-term trend condition is bullish - resistance at 122.80, the Jun 24 high, has recently been breached. The break suggests potential for a stronger correction and attention is on 127.79, the May 26 high. Initial key support to watch is 119.81, Jun 28 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Remains Above The Jul 5 Low

• RES 4: 3774.00 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 3689.00 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 3584.00 High Jun 27 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 3504.00/3559.20 High Jul 8 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3423.00 @ 06:10 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3321.30 50.0% retracement the major 2020 - 2021 upleg
• SUP 3: 3300.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3241.70 1.382 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to trade above 3343.00, Jul 5 low. The primary trend direction is down and any short-term gains would be considered corrective. The recent breach of 3384.00, Jun 16 low, reinforced bearish conditions and highlights a resumption of the downtrend, opening 3321.30, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is at 3504.00, Jul 8 high. A break would signal scope for a stronger bounce.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Berish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 4308.50 High Apr 28
• RES 3: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 3960.58 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3950.00 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 3798.75 @ 06:48 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: 3723.75/3639.00 Low Jul 14 / Low Jun 17 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 3500.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3384.75 0.764 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis traded lower again Thursday but did find support at the day low of 3723.75 and closed near the session high. The outlook remains bearish, following the reversal from 3950.00, the Jun 28 high. A resumption of weakness would open key support at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 3950.00 is required to reinstate a bullish theme. This would expose the 50-day EMA, currently at 3960.58.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U2) Doji Reversal Signal?

• RES 4: $118.12 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $116.24 - High Jun 29 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $107.86/114.75 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 5
• RES 1: $101.21/107.70 High Jul 13 / 8
• PRICE: $100.09 @ 05:40 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: $94.15 - Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: $90.33 - Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: $89.60 - Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: $86.74 - Low Feb 25

Brent futures traded lower Thursday to confirm a resumption of the current downtrend. Price however recovered for the session low to close near the top of the day’s range. In pattern terms, yesterday is a long legged doji candle pattern and this highlights the possibility of a short-term corrective reversal. Gains would open the $105.00 handle. A resumption of weakness and a break of $94.15, yesterday’s low, would resume the downtrend.

WTI TECHS: (Q2) Hammer Reversal?

• RES 4: $116.58 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $114.05 - High Jun 29 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: $105.34/111.45 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 5
• RES 1: $97.96/105.24 - High Jul 13 / High Jul 8
• PRICE: $96.35 @ 07:01 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: $90.56 - Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: $90.13 - 1.236 projection of the Jun 14 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 3: $86.81 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $85.03 - 1.50 projection of the Jun 14 - 22 - 29 price swing

WTI futures traded lower Thursday to confirm a resumption of the current downtrend. Price however did recover from the low of the day and yesterday’s close was near the session high. In pattern terms, yesterday was a hammer candle formation - a potential short-term reversal signal. Gains would be considered corrective. On the downside, a resumption of weakness and a break of $90.56, yesterday’s low, would resume the downtrend.

GOLD TECHS: Path Of Least Resistance Remains Down

• RES 4: $1839.4 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 3: $1818.0 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $1787.0 - Low May 16, recent breakout level
• RES 1: $1745.4/76.2 - High Jul 8 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1705.5 @ 07:24 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: $1697.7 - Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: $1690.6 - Low Aug 9 2021
• SUP 3: $1680.5 - 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021

Gold remains in a downtrend and traded to a fresh trend low on Thursday. This marks a continuation of the recent sell-off that has resulted in the break of a key S/T support and bear trigger at $1787.00, May 16 low. The break marks a resumption of the broader downtrend. The focus is on $1690.6 next, the Aug 9 2021 low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition, highlighting current bearish sentiment. Initial firm resistance is at $1776.2.

SILVER TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $21.967 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $21.112 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $20.464 - Low May 13 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: $19.959 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $18. 228 @ 08:03 BST Jul 15
• SUP 1: $18.000 - Round number support
• SUP 2: $17.312 - 3.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 4: $16.735 - Low May 22 2020

The Silver outlook remains bearish following a resumption of the downtrend last week, and this week’s extension lower. This marks a continuation of the current bear cycle that started Jun 6 and an extension of the broader downtrend that has been in place since early February 2021. Sights are on $18.693 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The 20-day EMA, at $20.216, marks a key short-term resistance.