MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt Futures Trade Through Bear Trigger

Price Signal Summary – Gilt Futures Trade Through Bear Trigger

• Bearish conditions in the E-mini S&P contract remain intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Price is trading closer to its recent lows. Last Friday’s move lower resulted in a test of the 50-day EMA at 4464.19. A bearish threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present following the recent reversal from 4513.00, the Jul 31 high. Short-term gains are considered corrective. Price remains below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and attention is on support at 4276.00.
• A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact, with 1.2621 support, the Aug 3 low, giving way to a new pullback low on Monday. A clear break of 1.2621 would confirm a resumption of the current bear cycle and pave the way for weakness towards 1.2591. An uptrend in USDJPY remains intact and the pair has touched a fresh cycle high today of 145.85. The pair has cleared resistance at 145.07, the Jun 30 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend and maintaining the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Short-term AUDUSD trend conditions remain bearish and the cross is trading closer to its recent low. Support at 0.6458, the May 31 low and bear trigger, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and confirm an extension of the bear cycle.
• Gold remains bearish and the yellow metal traded lower yesterday, maintaining the bear cycle that started Jul 20. Sights are on key support at $1893.1, the Jun 29 low. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. Price breached resistance at $83.59, the Nov 7 2022 high.
• Bund futures maintain a bearish tone. Attention is on the key near-term support at 131.12, the Aug 4 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would reinforce current bearish conditions and open 130.60, the Jul 10 low. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and Friday’s sharp sell-off plus Monday’s extension, reinforces this condition. The contract has traded through support at 93.70, the Aug 4 low and a bear trigger.

EURUSD TECHS: Clears Support

• RES 4: 1.1229 High Jul 20
• RES 3: 1.1150 High Jul 27
• RES 2: 1.1065 High Aug 10
• RES 1: 1.0992 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0911 @ 05:41 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 1.0875 Low Aug 14
• SUP 2: 1.0834 Low Jul 6 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.0804 Low Jun 151
• SUP 4: 1.0752 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 15 low

EURUSD traded lower Monday, reinforcing bearish conditions. The pair has cleared support at 1.0912, the Aug 3 low, to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started on Jul 18. This signals scope for weakness towards 1.0834 next, the Jul 6 low and a key level. Price is also trading lower inside a bull channel drawn from Mar 15 low. The base of the channel lies at 1.0752. Key short-term resistance is at 1.1065, the Aug 10 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3142 High Jul 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 2: 1.2887/2996 High Jul 28 / 27 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2771/2819 20-day EMA / High Aug 10 and a reversal trigger
• PRICE: 1.2685 @ 05:59 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 1.2617 Low Aug 14
• SUP 2: 1.2591 Low Jun 29
• SUP 3: 1.2480 1.50 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2439 1.618 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing

A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact, with 1.2621 support, the Aug 3 low, giving way to a new pullback low on Monday. A clear break of 1.2621 would confirm a resumption of the current bear cycle and pave the way for weakness towards 1.2591, the Jun 29 low and the next important support. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.2819, the Aug 19 high. A break would signal a possible reversal.

EURGBP TECHS: Approaching Support

• RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23 and a congestion high
• RES 2: 0.8701 High Jul 19
• RES 1: 0.8667/8669 100-dma / High Aug 11
• PRICE: 0.8599 @ 06:13 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 0.8590/44 Low Aug 9 / Low Jul 27
• SUP 2: 0.8530 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8504 Low Jul 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 29 2022

Last week’s gains in EURGBP resulted in a breach of resistance at 0.8656, the Aug 3 high. However, the cross has failed to hold on to recent and traded yesterday extending the reversal from 0.8669, the Aug 11 high and the key short-term hurdle for bulls. Support to watch lies at 0.8590, the Aug 9 low. A break would signal scope for an extension lower towards 0.8544, the Jul 27 low. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver's Seat

• RES 4: 147.49 2.00 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 146.59 High Nov 10 2022
• RES 2: 146.38 1.764 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 145.69 1.618 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• PRICE: 145.47 @ 06:31 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 143.89 High Aug 3
• SUP 2: 142.76/141.39 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 138.07 Low Jul 28
• SUP 4: 137.25 Low Jul 14 and key support

An uptrend in USDJPY remains intact and the pair has touched a fresh cycle high today of 145.59. The pair has cleared resistance at 145.07, the Jun 30 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend and maintaining the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition, highlighting an uptrend. The focus is on 145.69, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 142.76, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Continues To Point North

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 159.22 High Aug 11
• PRICE: 158.68 @ Close Aug 14
• SUP 1: 156.92/155.54 20-day EMA / Low Aug 3
• SUP 2: 155.12 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 150.16 38.2% retracement of the Jan 3 - Jul 21 bull cycle

EURJPY is consolidating. Last week’s gains strengthened bullish conditions and key resistance at 158.05, the Jul 21 high, has been breached. The break confirms a continuation of the medium-term uptrend and opens 159.92, a Fibonacci projection ahead of the 160.00 psychological handle. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting a rising trend. Initial firm support lies at 156.73, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 0.6821 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 0.6739 High Jul 31
• RES 2: 0.6616/6667 High Aug 10 / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6534 High Nov 11
• PRICE: 0.6503 @ 06:45 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 0.6458/54 Low May 31 and a bear trigger / Low Aug 14
• SUP 2: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 ‘22 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10 2022
• SUP 4: 0.6285 Low Nov 4 2022

Short-term AUDUSD trend conditions remain bearish and the cross is trading closer to its recent low. Support at 0.6458, the May 31 low and bear trigger, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and confirm an extension of the bear cycle that started mid-July. This would open 0.6403, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6616, the Aug 10 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Holding On To The Bulk Of Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 1.3655 High May 26 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3585 High Jun 1
• RES 2: 1.3523 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 1: 1.3502 High Aug 8
• PRICE: 1.3450 @ 06:58 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 1.3364 Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: 1.3336 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3266 Low Aug 2
• SUP 4: 1.3151 Low Jul 31

USDCAD is consolidating. Short-term conditions remain bullish and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Last week’s climb resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at 1.3387, the Jul 7 high. The break strengthens bullish conditions and attention is on 1.3523, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key support has been defined at 1.3093, the Jul 14 low. Initial firm support to watch is 1.3336, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Pierces Support

• RES 4: 135.00 High Jun 27 and key resistance
• RES 3: 134.88 High Jul 19
• RES 2: 134.01 High Jul 24
• RES 1: 132.47/133.45 20-day EMA / High Aug 8
• PRICE: 131.174 @ 05:03 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 131.06 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 130.99 Low Jul 12
• SUP 3: 130.60 Low Jul 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 130.00 Psychological round number

Bund futures maintain a bearish tone. Attention is on the key near-term support at 131.12, the Aug 4 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would reinforce current bearish conditions and open 130.60, the Jul 10 low. Moving average studies remain in bear mode position suggesting the primary trend is down. Key resistance is at 133.45, a break of this level would be seen as a bullish development.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 116.860 High Jun 13
• RES 3: 116.600 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 115.900/116.340 50-day EMA / High Aug 8
• RES 1: 115.699 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 115.220 @ 05:09 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 115.180 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 115.034 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - 19 rally
• SUP 3: 114.730 Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: 114.550 Low Jul 7 and a key support

Bobl futures remain in a bearish mode. A key short-term resistance has been defined at 116.340, the Aug 8 high, where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme. The move lower has resulted in a test of support at 115.230, the Jul 13 and Aug 4 low. A clear break of this support would strengthen a bearish theme and open 115.034, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 105.495 High Jun 13
• RES 3: 105.376 61.8% retracement June-July downleg
• RES 2: 105.320 100-dma (cont)
• RES 1: 105.107/295 50-day EMA / High Aug 8
• PRICE: 104.940 @ 05:34 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 104.925 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 104.805 Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures traded lower yesterday, starting the week on a bearish note. The move lower cancels a recent bullish theme and support at 104.930, the Aug 4 low, has been pierced. A clear break would signal a stronger reversal and suggest scope for an extension lower towards 104.805, the Jul 17 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 105.295, the Aug 8 high. A breach would be seen as a bullish development.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Heading South

• RES 4: 97.84 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 96.19/81 High Jul 31 / 27
• RES 2: 94.92/95.82 20-day EMA / 10 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 93.75 High Aug 14
• PRICE: 93.18 @ Close Aug 14
• SUP 1: 93.00 Low Aug 14
• SUP 2: 92.82 Low Jul 12
• SUP 3: 92.09 Low Jul 7 and a key support
• SUP 4: 92.00 Round number support

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and Friday’s sharp sell-off plus Monday’s extension, reinforces this condition. The contract has traded through support at 93.70, the Aug 4 low and a bear trigger. The breach marks a continuation of the bear cycle that started Jul 19 and opens 92.82 next, the Jul 12 low, ahead of 92.09, the Jul 7 low and key support. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 95.82, the Aug 10 high.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Bearish Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.60 High Jun 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 116.86/117.48 High Jul 24 / 19
• RES 1: 116.02 High Aug 9
• PRICE: 114.38 @ Close Aug 14
• SUP 1: 113.81 Low Aug 4
• SUP 2: 112.95 Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

A bearish condition in BTP futures remains intact following the reversal that started Jul 19. The latest pullback reinforces this theme and cancels a recent short-term bullish threat. Key near-term support lies at 113.81, the Aug 4 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bearish theme and expose 112.95, the Jul 11 low. Key resistance to watch is 116.02, the Aug 9 high. A break of this level would represent a bullish development.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 4539.20 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jul 3 - 7 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 4515.00 High Nov / Dec 2007 (cont)
• RES 2: 4513.00 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4420.00 High Aug 10
• PRICE: 4360.00 @ 05:47 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 4276.00 Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: 4220.00 Low Jul 7 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 4177.40 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4122.00 Low Mar 28

A bearish threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present following the recent reversal from 4513.00, the Jul 31 high. Short-term gains are considered corrective. Price remains below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and attention is on support at 4276.00, the Aug 8 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and expose 4220.00, the Jul 7 low. Initial firm resistance is 4420.00, Aug 10 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Channel Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 4670.58 2.00 proj of the Jun 26 - 20 - Jul 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4593.50/4634.50 High Aug 2 / Jul 27
• RES 2: 4560.75 High Aug 4
• RES 1: 4521.92 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4510.50 @ 06:39 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 4459.00 Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 4456.29 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 13 low
• SUP 3: 4411.25 Low Jul 10
• SUP 4: 4368.50 Low Jun 26

Bearish conditions in the E-mini S&P contract remain intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Price is trading closer to its recent lows. Last Friday’s move lower resulted in a test of the 50-day EMA at 4464.19. A clear break of this average would expose 4456.29, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 13 low. Clearance of this support would strengthen a bearish threat. Resistance to watch is 4560.75, Aug 4 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V3) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $92.10 - 1.50 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 18 price swing
• RES 3: $90.63 - High Nov 11 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $88.10 - High Aug 10
• PRICE: $96.35 @ 06:52 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: $82.36/80.68 - Low Aug 3 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $78.10 - Low Jul 18 and key support
• SUP 3: $74.78 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $72.04 - Low Jun 28

Bullish conditions in Brent futures remain intact and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The latest pullback is considered corrective. The move higher last week confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and attention is on the psychological $90.00 handle. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position reflecting current market sentiment. First key support lies at $82.36, the Aug 3 low.

WTI TECHS: (U3) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $87.43 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 2: $85.94 - High Aug 23 2022
• RES 1: $84.89 - High Aug 10
• PRICE: $82.59 @ 06:56 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: $78.69/77.02 - Aug 3 low / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $73.78 Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: $69.82 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $66.98 - Low Jun 12 and key support

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. Price breached resistance at $83.59, the Nov 7 2022 high. The break strengthened a bullish condition and has paved the way for a climb towards $87.43, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in bull-mode condition highlighting an uptrend. Initial firm support lies at $78.69, Aug 3 low.

GOLD TECHS: Remains Soft

• RES 4: $2022.9 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 3: $1998.1 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 2: $1972.4/1987.5 - High Jul 31 / High Jul 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $1934.5/43.2 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: $1905.4 @ 07:17 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: $1902.7 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: $1893.1 - Jun 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13

Gold remains bearish and the yellow metal traded lower yesterday, maintaining the bear cycle that started Jul 20. Sights are on key support at $1893.1, the Jun 29 low. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is $1943.2, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would highlight a possible short-term reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $25.920 - High May 10
• RES 1: $23.679/25.267 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 20
• PRICE: $22.663 @ 07:23 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: $22.527 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 bull leg
• SUP 4: $20.591 - Low Mar 13

A bearish theme in Silver remains intact following last week’s extension lower and yesterday’s fresh cycle low. The continuation lower signals scope for a move towards $22.111, the Jun 23 low and a key support. A break of this level would strengthen the current bearish theme. Key resistance is at $25.267, the Jul 20 high. Initial resistance to watch is $23.679, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would signal a possible reversal.