MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt Outlook Remains Bullish Through S/T Volatility

Price Signal Summary – Gilt Outlook Remains Bullish Through S/T Volatility

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. Price recently cleared a key short-term support at 3960.75, Mar 2 low to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that has been in place since Feb 2. The Eurostoxx 50 futures outlook remains bearish following recent weakness and Wednesday’s strong sell-off reinforces the current bear cycle. Short-term gains are considered corrective.
• The recent move lower in USDCAD appears to be a correction and this is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains strengthened a bullish theme. Price has cleared the Dec 16 high of 1.3705 and traded above 1.3800. Scope is seen for gains towards 1.3977, the Oct 13 high. Recent weakness in USDJPY highlights potential for a deeper corrective pullback and the pair is trading closer to this week’s lows. 132.29, the Mar 13 low, represents an important short-term support. It has been pierced, a clear break would resume the bear leg and open 131.31, a Fibonacci retracement. GBPUSD remains below Tuesday's high of 1.2204. Clearance of 1.2204 is required to reinstate a bullish theme and this would open 1.2269, the Feb 14 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.2011, the Mar 15 low.
• Gold remains bullish and the metal is trading at its recent highs. Resistance at $1858.3, the Mar 6 high, has recently been cleared and the latest rally signals scope for an extension towards $1959.7, the Feb 2 high and a key near-term resistance. WTI futures remain vulnerable. Wednesday’s move lower resulted in the break of key support at $70.86, the Dec 9 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the medium-term downtrend and reinforces current bearish conditions.
• Bund futures have pulled back from Wednesday’s high of 137.97. The near-term outlook remains bullish following this week’s volatile session. A continuation higher would pave the way for strength towards 138.00 next. Gilt futures remain volatile and the contract remains above 103.12, the Mar low. For now, the outlook is bullish and a resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 106.88, the Feb 6 high on the continuation chart.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 1.0836 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 8 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0803 High Feb 14 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0775 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0760 High Mar 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.0648 @ 05:42 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 1.0516 Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 1.0484 Low Jan 6 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.0446 Trendline support drawn from the Sep 28 2022 low
• SUP 4: 1.0394 Low Dec 1

EURUSD is trading slightly higher today. Wednesday’s sell-off resulted in a brief test below key short-term support at 1.0525, the Mar 8 low. A clear break of this level is required to reinstate a bearish theme that would open 1.0484, the Jan 6 low and 1.0446, a trendline support drawn from the Sep 28 2022 low. Wednesday’s high of 1.0760 marks a key short-term resistance - a break of this level is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

GBPUSD TECHS:Watching Resistance At 1.2204

• RES 4: 1.2401 High Feb 2
• RES 3: 1.2296 76.4% retracement of the Jan 23 - Mar 8 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2269 High Feb 14
• RES 1: 1.2204 High Mar 14 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2156 @ 06:14 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 1.2011/1908 Low Mar 15 / 10
• SUP 2: 1.1893 200-dma
• SUP 3: 1.1804 Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1779 2.0% 10-dma envelope

GBPUSD remains below Tuesday's high of 1.2204. Clearance of 1.2204 is required to reinstate a bullish theme and this would open 1.2269, the Feb 14 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.2011, the Mar 15 low. A breach of this level would strengthen a bearish case and instead signal scope for a deeper retracement. The key support lies at 1.1804, the Mar 8 low and it marks the bear trigger.

EURGBP TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8925 High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8905 Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high
• RES 2: 0.8890 High Mar 10
• RES 1: 0.8844 High Mar 15
• PRICE: 0.8760 @ 06:20 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 2: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.8691 Low Dec 19
• SUP 4: 0.8649 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg

EURGBP appears vulnerable near-term and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. The cross has breached support at 0.8755, the Feb 28 low and pierced 0.8722, the Jan 19 low. Clearance of 0.8722 would leave the 0.8700 handle exposed. Initial firm resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 0.8844. A breach of this resistance is required to ease bearish pressure and allow for a move towards 0.8905, a trendline resistance.

USDJPY TECHS: Short-Term Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 137.91 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 136.99 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 1: 134.64 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 132.99 @ 06:37 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 131.72 Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 131.31 61.8% retracement of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: 129.81 Low Feb 10
• SUP 4: 128.09 Low Feb 2

Recent weakness in USDJPY highlights potential for a deeper corrective pullback and the pair is trading closer to this week’s lows. 132.29, the Mar 13 low, represents an important short-term support. It has been pierced, a clear break would resume the bear leg and open 131.31, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of strength would instead open the 136.00 handle and signal scope for a test of the bull trigger at 137.91, the Mar 8 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 143.31 20-day EMA
• RES 3: 142.84 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 142.15 Low Feb 24
• RES 1: 142.01 High Mar 16
• PRICE: 141.61 @ 06:49 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 139.13 Low Mar 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 139.06 Low Jan 20
• SUP 3: 137.92 Low Jan 19
• SUP 4: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and a key support

EURJPY traded lower Thursday but the cross has recovered from yesterday’s session low. Short-term gains are considered corrective and this week’s move signals scope for a continuation of the bear cycle. A resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards the 138.00 handle. The short-term bear trigger lies at 139.13, the Mar 16 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 142.15, the Feb 24 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
• RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 2: 0.6784/87 High Mar 1 and a key resistance / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6748 High Mar 7
• PRICE: 0.6713 @ 06:59 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 0.6590/47 Low Mar 15 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 2: 0.6500 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.6425 2.00 projection of the Feb 2 - 6 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish despite the recent recovery - a shallow correction. The Mar 7 sell-off reinforced a bearish theme. The break lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and price has breached key support at 0.6629, the Dec 20 low. This signals potential for weakness towards 0.6547, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6784, the Mar 1 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 1.3977 High Oct 13
• RES 2: 1.3898 High Oct 14
• RES 1: 1.3814/3862 High Mar 15 / 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3684 @ 07:58 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 1.3652 Low Mar 14
• SUP 2: 1.3562 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3515 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21

The recent move lower in USDCAD appears to be a correction and this is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains strengthened a bullish theme. Price has cleared the Dec 16 high of 1.3705 and traded above 1.3800. Scope is seen for gains towards 1.3977, the Oct 13 high. Initial support is seen at 1.3652, Tuesday’s low. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.3862, the Mar 10 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Bullish Theme

• RES 4: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 139.40 High Jan 18
• RES 2: 138.40 High Feb 2
• RES 1: 138.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 135.86 @ 05:12 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 135.65 50.0% retracement of Wednesday’s rally
• SUP 2: 135.45 High Feb 14
• SUP 3: 134.30 High Feb 24
• SUP 4: 133.89/33 20-day EMA / Low Mar 15

Bund futures have pulled back from Wednesday’s high of 137.97. The near-term outlook remains bullish following this week’s volatile session. A continuation higher would pave the way for strength towards 138.00 next. Wednesday’s gains leave support 133.89 intact, the 20-day EMA. A reversal lower and a break of this support is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 120.220 Low Dec 6 2022
• RES 3: 120.00 Psychological resistance
• RES 2: 119.580 High Dec 9 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 119.190 High Mar 15
• PRICE: 117.950 @ 05:19 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 117.490 38.2% retracement of the Mar 6 - 15 rally
• SUP 2: 116.965 50.0% retracement of the Mar 6 - 15 rally
• SUP 3: 116.708 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 116.370 Low Mar 15 and key support

Bobl futures have pulled back from Wednesday’s high of 119.190. The outlook remains bullish following this week’s volatile price action. A continuation higher would pave the way for gains towards 119.580, the Dec 9 2022 high on the continuation chart. Further out, scope would be seen for a climb to the 120.00 handle. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 116.708.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Holding Above Support

• RES 4: 107.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 106.800 Low Dec 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 106.680 High Dec 13 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 106.360 High Mar 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 105.845 @ 05:37GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 105.578 Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 105.353 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - 15 rally
• SUP 3: 105.231 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 105.030 Low Mar 15 and key support

Schatz futures rallied higher Wednesday but prices have since pulled back and remain below this week’s highs. The outlook - for now - remains bullish in a volatile environment. A continuation higher would open 106.680, the Dec 5 2022 high on the continuation chart. Further out, scope would be seen for a climb to the 107.00 handle. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at the 20-day EMA. The average intersects at 105.231.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Key Support Lies At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 108.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 107.78 High Feb 2 and a key resistance (cont)
• RES 2: 106.88 High Feb 6 (cont)
• RES 1: 106.23 High Mar 15
• PRICE: 105.08@ Close Mar 16
• SUP 1: 104.12 Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 103.54 38.2% retracement of the entire rally from Feb 28
• SUP 3: 103.12 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 102.32 20-day EMA

Gilt futures remain volatile and the contract remains above 103.12, the Mar low. For now, the outlook is bullish and a resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 106.88, the Feb 6 high on the continuation chart. On the downside, firm support is seen at the 20-day EMA, where a break would strengthen any developing bearish threat. The average intersects at 102.32.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 116.49 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 2 downleg (cont)
• RES 2: 116.33 High Feb 9 (cont)
• RES 1: 116.23 High Mar 16
• PRICE: 115.26 @ Close Mar 16
• SUP 1: 113.02 High Mar 9 and a gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 2: 111.79 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 110.79 Low Mar 7
• SUP 4: 110.25 Low Mar 2 and the bear trigger

BTP futures traded higher yesterday to extend the reversal from 110.25, the Mar 2 low. The short-term outlook remains bullish following recent gains and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. A continuation higher would open 116.49, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch lies at 113.02, the Mar 9 high and a gap low on the daily chart. Short-term pullbacks would be considered corrective.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4268.00 High Mar 6 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4193.20 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 4143.60 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 4109.50 50.0% retracement of the Mar 6 - 15 bear leg
• PRICE: 4087.00 @ 05:51 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 3951.00 Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 3865.00 Low Jan 4
• SUP 3: 3800.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3750.00 Low Dec 30

The Eurostoxx 50 futures outlook remains bearish following recent weakness and Wednesday’s strong sell-off reinforces the current bear cycle. Short-term gains are considered corrective. The break of the 4000.00 handle signals scope for weakness towards 3865.00, the Jan 4 low and further out towards the 3800.00 handle. Initial resistance is seen at 4143.60, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance has been defined at 4268.00, the Mar 6 high.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Prices Remain Below Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4200.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4119.50 High Mar 6
• RES 1: 4030.01 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3996.25 @ 06:52 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 3839.25 Low Mar 13
• SUP 2: 3822.00 Low Dec 22 and a key support
• SUP 3: 3778.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3724.86 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 - Feb 2 bull cycle

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. Price recently cleared a key short-term support at 3960.75, Mar 2 low to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that has been in place since Feb 2. The move lower signals scope for an extension towards 3822.00 next, the Dec 22 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 4030.01, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K3) Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: $88.78 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $84.00/86.75 - High Mar 9 / 7 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $81.17 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $78.84 - Low Feb 6
• PRICE: $75.12 @ 06:56 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: $71.67 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: $71.30 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - Dec 12 - Jan 23 price swing
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

Brent futures remain vulnerable following this week’s impulsive bearish wave. Price has breached a key support at $76.04, the Dec 12 low and a key medium term chart point. The break confirms a resumption of the medium-term downtrend and paves the way for weakness towards $71.30, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is $78.84, the Feb 6 low. Gains would be considered corrective.

WTI TECHS: (J3) Key Medium-Term Support Cleared

• RES 4: $82.89 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $78.06/80.94 - High Mar 9 / 7 and key resistance
• RES 2: $75.06 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $72.56 - High Mar 15
• PRICE: $68.65 @ 07:02 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: $65.60 - Low Dec 3 2021 (cont)
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: $60.44 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 - Mar 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $58.02 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 - Mar 7 price swing

WTI futures remain vulnerable. Wednesday’s move lower resulted in the break of key support at $70.86, the Dec 9 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the medium-term downtrend and reinforces current bearish conditions. Note too that price has also cleared the psychological $70.00 handle. Attention is on $65.60, the Dec 3 2021 low (cont). Initial resistance is at $72.56, Wednesday’s high.

GOLD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $2000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: $1987.4 - 3.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 2: $1959.7 - High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $1937.4 - High Mar 15
• PRICE: $19310 @ 07:16 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 2: $1854.6 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1804.9 - Low Feb 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1787.3 - 50.0% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg

Gold remains bullish and the metal is trading at its recent highs. Resistance at $1858.3, the Mar 6 high, has recently been cleared and the latest rally signals scope for an extension towards $1959.7, the Feb 2 high and a key near-term resistance. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at $1854.6, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level is required to signal a top - this would expose the bear trigger at $1804.9, the Feb 28 low.

SILVER TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $23.520 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 downleg
• RES 3: $23.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $22.829 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 downleg
• RES 1: $22.385 - High Mar 15
• PRICE: $21.932 @ 07:19 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: $20.591/19.904 - Low Mar 13 / 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 3: $19.232 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: $18.835 - Low Nov 3 2022

Silver remains firm having reversed sharply higher from $19.904, the Mar 10 low. The metal is testing resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at $21.840. A clear breach of the average would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a climb towards $22.829, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, Monday’s low at $20.591 marks initial firm support ahead of the bear trigger at $19.904.