MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt Trend Remains Bearish

Price Signal Summary – Gilt Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• S&P E-Minis remain in a downtrend. Friday’s sell-off has reinforced bearish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle. Attention is on 4094.25, the Feb 24 low and a major support. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a bear mode and recent gains are considered corrective. A bearish theme follows a reversal from the Apr 21 high of 3883.00.
• The EURUSD trend direction is unchanged and conditions remain bearish. The pair has recently probed 1.0494, Feb 22 2017 low. The move to fresh trend lows last week, confirms an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. No change in USDJPY, and the outlook remains bullish. The rally last Thursday confirmed a resumption of the uptrend, following the breach of 129.40, the Apr 20 high. AUDUSD remains bearish and the pair continues to head south. Price has recently cleared support at 0.7165, Mar 15 low and a former key short-term bear trigger. The break reinforces bearish conditions and last Thursday’s move lower resulted in a breach of 0.7095, the Feb 24 low.
• Gold remains vulnerable. The yellow metal has recently cleared support at the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, the pullback from the $1998.4 high (Apr 18 high), continues to highlight a bearish threat. WTI futures remain above last Monday’s low of $95.28. A triangle pattern has appeared on the daily chart, drawn from the Mar 15 low. This is a bearish pattern.
• Bund futures maintain a bearish tone. Recent gains were considered corrective. Fresh cycle lows in April, reinforce a bearish theme. The move lower confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The broader trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. This week’s breach of the 20-day EMA and a trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 1 high, appeared to be a bullish development.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Path of Least Resistance Remains Down

• RES 4: 1.0936 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0852 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 1.0767 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0655/0758 High Apr 27 / Low Apr 14 - recent breakout level
• PRICE: 1.0517 @ 06:13 BST May 2
• SUP 1: 1.0472/54 Low Apr 28 / Low Jan 1 2017
• SUP 2: 1.0390 Low Jan 4 2017
• SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0333 1.236 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing

The EURUSD trend direction is unchanged and conditions remain bearish. The pair has recently probed 1.0494, Feb 22 2017 low. The move to fresh trend lows last week, confirms an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Further weakness is likely and the focus is on 1.0454 next, the Feb 22 2017 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.0936, the Apr 21 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.0758.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Despite The Oversold Condition

• RES 4: 1.3090 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 1.2974 Low Apr 13 and a recent breakout level
• RES 2: 1.2772/2865 High Apr 26 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2614 High Apr 29
• PRICE: 1.2546 @ 06:21 BST May 2
• SUP 1: 1.2412 Low Apr 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2375 2.382 proj of the Mar 23 - Apr 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2252 Low Jun 29 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2162 Low May 22 2020

GBPUSD gains are considered corrective and the pair remains soft following last week’s acceleration of the downtrend. Price has cleared 1.2974, Apr 13 low and 1.2676, last printed in September 2020. The trend remains in oversold territory. However a reversal pattern is still required to signal a short-term base and possible reversal. The focus is 1.2423 next, a Fibonacci projection. Friday’s high of 1.2614 marks initial resistance.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 0.8600 High Dec 8 2021
• RES 3: 0.8553 High Dec 14 2020
• RES 2: 0.8512/39 High Mar 31 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.8433/68 High Apr 29 / High Apr 27
• PRICE: 0.8383 @ 06:28 BST May 2
• SUP 1: 0.8368 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger

EURGBP maintains a bullish tone despite the recent pullback. The cross breached resistance at 0.8405, the Apr 11 high, during its most recent bull cycle. The breach of this level highlights a bullish development and has also resulted in a move above 0.8435, the Apr 4 high. An extension would open 0.8512, the Mar 31 high and the next key resistance point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8368, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: 133.11 High Apr 4 2002
• RES 3: 132.39 High Apr 15 2002
• RES 2: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 131.25 High Apr 28
• PRICE: 130.37 @ 06:42 BST May 2
• SUP 1: 128.34/126.95 Low Apr 28 / Low Apr 27 and a key support
• SUP 2: 126.68 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 125.09 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 124.01 Low Apr 11

No change in USDJPY, and the outlook remains bullish. The rally last Thursday confirmed a resumption of the uptrend, following the breach of 129.40, the Apr 20 high. The psychological 130.00 handle has also been cleared and 131.00 remains exposed. The focus is on 131.96 next, a Fibonacci projection. 126.95, the Apr 27 low, represents a key short-term support. A break would signal a possible short-term top.

EURJPY TECHS: Holding Above Support

• RES 4: 141.63 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 140.93 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 8 price swing
• RES 1: 138.00/140.00 High Apr 28 / High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 137.18 @ 06:49 BST May 2
• SUP 1: 134.79/77 Low Apr 27 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: 134.30/26 Low Apr 5 and a key support / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 132.95 Low Mar 24
• SUP 4: 132.33 Low Mar 23

Recent weakness in EURJPY is considered corrective. The cross has remained above an important support area around the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 134.26, just below an important support at 134.30, Apr 5 low. While this 134.26-30 zone holds, the broader uptrend remains intact. Initial resistance is at 138.00, Thursday’s high. The bull trigger is unchanged at 140.00, Apr 21 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 0.7493 Apr 12 high and key intraday resistance
• RES 3: 0.7458 High Apr 20/21
• RES 2: 0.7320 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7180/261 High Apr 29 / High Apr 25
• PRICE: 0.7044 @ 06:58 BST May 2
• SUP 1: 0.7033 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6985 Low Jan 31
• SUP 3: 0.6968 Low Jan 28 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6921 Low Jul 14 2020

AUDUSD remains bearish and the pair continues to head south. Price has recently cleared support at 0.7165, Mar 15 low and a former key short-term bear trigger. The break reinforces bearish conditions and last Thursday’s move lower resulted in a breach of 0.7095, the Feb 24 low. This opens 0.6968 next, the Jan 28 low. Resistance is seen at 0.7261, Apr 5 high. Firmer resistance however is set at 0.7331, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Eyeing Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3024 38.2% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jun ‘21 downleg
• RES 3: 1.2960/64 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Dec 20 2021
• RES 2: 1.2901 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 1.2880 High Apr 28
• PRICE: 1.2858 @ 08:02 BST May 2
• SUP 1: 1.2719/2656 Low Apr 29 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2568 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 1.2459 Low Apr 21
• SUP 4: 1.2403 Low Apr 5 and a key support

USDCAD remains bullish and the strong recovery from Friday’s low of 1.2719 reinforces this theme. Price action also remains above a key support defined by the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 1.2656. Attention on 1.2901, the Mar 8 high and an important bull trigger. A break would set the scene for a climb towards the Dec 20 2021 high of 1.2964. On the downside, first support lies at 1.2719.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 158.85 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 157.87 High Apr 7
• RES 2: 156.17 High Apr 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 155.78 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 153.62 @ 05:09 BST May 2
• SUP 1: 153.05/153.00 Low Apr 22 / Round number support
• SUP 2: 152.65 Low Sep 1 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 151.99 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 150.15 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing

Bunds futures maintain a bearish tone. Recent gains were considered corrective. Fresh cycle lows in April, reinforce a bearish theme. The move lower confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, moving average studies remain in a bear mode. The focus is on 153.00 next ahead of 152.65, the Sep 1 2015 low (cont). Firm resistance is at 156.17, the Apr 14 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Bearish Theme

• RES 4: 129.373 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 129.350 High Apr 4 and a reversal point
• RES 2: 128.830 High Apr 7
• RES 1: 128.310 High Apr 8/28 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 127.170 @ 05:19 BST May 2
• SUP 1: 126.660 Low Apr 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.480 Low Jun 5 2014 (cont)
• SUP 3: 126.196 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

Bobl futures stalled at 128.310 last week and the pullback signals the end of the recent correction. Fresh cycle lows in April reinforce the primary downtrend, maintaining the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving averages continue to point south. An extension lower would open 126.480 next, Jun 5 2014 low (cont). Key short-term trend resistance is at 128.310, the Apr 14/28 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 110.904 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 110.855 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 110.660 High Apr 14 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 110.514 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 110.275 @ 04:46 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 110.060 Low Apr 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 110.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 109.983 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 109.777 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend and last week’s initial recovery is likely a correction. The contract traded to fresh cycle lows recently, confirming a resumption of the primary downtrend and an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode. The focus is on 109.983 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance at 110.660, the Apr 14 high, remains intact.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Fails To Hold On To Recent Highs

• RES 4: 122.35 High Apr 4
• RES 3: 120.96 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 120.47 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 119.79 High Apr 25 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 118.85 @ Close Apr 28
• SUP 1: 118.27/117.22 Low Apr 25 / Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 117.04 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 116.35 Low Dec 30 2015
• SUP 4: 115.40 1.00 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing

The broader trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. This week’s breach of the 20-day EMA and a trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 1 high, appeared to be a bullish development. Price has instead failed to hold on to recent highs, signalling the end of the recent correction. Resistance has been defined at 119.79, the Apr 26 high where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme. An extension lower would expose the 117.22 bear trigger.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Fresh Trend Low Print

• RES 4: 137.19 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 136.12 High Apr 7
• RES 2: 135.23 High Apr 14
• RES 1: 133.53/77 High Apr 28 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.34 @ Close Apr 29
• SUP 1: 130.22 Low Apr 29
• SUP 2: 130.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 128.08 2.00 proj of the Mar 31 - Feb 16 - Mar 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 127.63 1.00 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing

The trend condition in BTP futures remains bearish - Friday’s move lower resulted in another fresh trend low print. This once again confirms a continuation of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that defines a downtrend. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode too. The focus is on the 130.00 handle next and a firm short-term resistance has been defined at 133.53, Apr 28 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Bearish Price Structure

• RES 4: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 3: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 3803.90/3883.00 20-day EMA / High Apr 21
• PRICE: 3690.00 @ 05:45 BST May 2
• SUP 1: 3608.00 Low Apr 27
• SUP 2: 3551 60 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 3: 3523.00 Low Mar 11
• SUP 4: 3458.90 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a bear mode and recent gains are considered corrective. A bearish theme follows a reversal from the Apr 21 high of 3883.00. Price is trading below the 50-day EMA and last week’s move lower resulted in a break of support at 3684.00, Apr 12 low and a bear trigger, reinforcing a bearish condition. A resumption of weakness would open 3551.60, a Fibonacci retracement. Resistance is at 3883.00, Apr 21 high.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 4631.00 High Mar 29 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4588.75 High Apr 5
• RES 2: 4509.00 High Apr 21 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4303.50/4355.50 High Apr 26/28 / Low Apr 18
• PRICE: 4138.00 @ 06:59 BST May 2
• SUP 1: 4116.75 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 4094.25 Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4063.24 1.618 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 4029.25 High May 13 2021

S&P E-Minis remain in a downtrend. Friday’s sell-off has reinforced bearish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle. Attention is on 4094.25, the Feb 24 low and a major support. A breach of this level would further strengthen bearish conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear mode once again, highlighting current sentiment. Firm short-term resistance is at 4303.5.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N2) Trading Inside A Triangle

• RES 4: $121.13 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 3: $115.76 - High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $113.61 - High Apr 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: $110.00/112.27 - High Apr 29 / Triangle resistance
• PRICE: $105.88 @ 07:06 BST May 2
• SUP 1: $99.25 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: $97.18 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 3: $92.59 - Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: $89.01 - Low Feb 25

Brent futures are trading closer to recent highs and remain above the recent low of $99.25 (Apr 25). A bearish threat remains present despite recent gains. The contract appears to be trading inside a triangle, drawn from the Mar 15 low. This is a bearish pattern. A break below $99.25 would highlight a triangle breakout and expose $97.18, Apr 11 low, and $92.59, the Mar 15 low. Triangle resistance intersects at $112.27 today.

WTI TECHS: (M2) Triangle Still Highlights Bearish Threat

• RES 4: $118.13 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $113.51/113.90 - High Mar 24 / 76.4% of Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $109.20 - High Apr 18
• RES 1: $106.51/107.99 - Triangle resistance / High Apr 29
• PRICE: $103.39 @ 07:16 BST May 2
• SUP 1: $99.80/95.28 - Low Apr 27Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: $92.60 - Low Apr 11 and a key support
• SUP 3: $90.37 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $86.67 - Low Feb 25

WTI futures remain above last Monday’s low of $95.28. A triangle pattern has appeared on the daily chart, drawn from the Mar 15 low. This is a bearish pattern and a break of $95.28 would confirm a resumption of weakness and expose $92.60, Apr 11 low, and $90.37, the Mar 15 low and a key bear trigger. Triangle resistance intersects at $106.51 ahead of a key resistance at $109.20, Apr 18 high. Clearance of these hurdles would be bullish.

GOLD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: $2007.9 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 3: $2001.6 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 2: $1998.4 - High Apr 18 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $1928.7 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1885.3 @ 07:20 BST May 2
• SUP 1: $1872.2 - Low Apr 28
• SUP 2: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11
• SUP 4: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28

Gold remains vulnerable. The yellow metal has recently cleared support at the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, the pullback from the $1998.4 high (Apr 18 high), continues to highlight a bearish threat. This was reinforced last week by the break of support at $1890.2, the Mar 29 low. The move lower opens $1848.8, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, $1928.7, the 20-day EMA is seen as a firm short-term resistance.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Theme Intact

• RES 4: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 3: $26.943 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $24.482 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $22.731 @ 08:08 BST May 2
• SUP 1: $22.568 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $22.008 - Low Feb 3 and a key support
• SUP 3: $21.949 - Low Jan 7 2022
• SUP 4: $21.427 - Low Dec 15

Silver remains soft following the recent reversal from $26.222, the Apr 18 high, and last week’s continuation lower has also reinforced bearish conditions. Support at $23.974, Mar 29 low and $23.173, 76.4% of the Feb 3 - Mar 8 rally, have been cleared. The clear break of the latter has opened $22.008, the Feb 3 low and the next key support. The 50-day EMA, at $24.482, marks resistance.