MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt Weakness Breaches Support

Price Signal Summary – Gilt Weakness Breaches Support

• A bullish theme S&P E-Minis is intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high Monday. Price has recently cleared 5600.75, Aug 1 high, signalling scope for an extension towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 5721.25, the Jul 16 high. Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding on to their latest gains. The contract has recently pierced the 50-day EMA, at 4877.69. An extension higher would undermine the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal.
• Bullish conditions in GBPUSD remain intact and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Price has recently traded through two important resistance points; 1.3142 and 1.3149, the Jul 14 ’23 high and the top of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 4 ‘23 low. USDJPY continues to trade below the Aug 15 high and the 20-day EMA. The trend structure remains bearish and moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up. A stronger reversal lower would open key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair is trading at this week’s highs. This latest climb has resulted in a print above 0.6799, the Jul 11 / Aug 23 high and a bull trigger.
• Trend conditions in Gold are unchanged and remain bullish. The recent breach of $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are still in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a dominant uptrend.WTI futures have recovered from their recent lows and the contract traded sharply higher Monday. However, price has pulled back from its latest highs and again traded lower yesterday. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at $78.54, the Aug 12 high.
• Bund futures traded lower Tuesday resulting in a break of the 20-day EMA. Short-term weakness still appears to be corrective and this is allowing the recent overbought condition to unwind. The next support to watch lies at 133.37, the 50-day EMA.Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday and this resulted in a breach of support at 98.79, the Aug 12 low. The break lower highlights scope for a deeper retracement near-term that opens 98.37, a Fibonacci projection.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback   

• RES 4: 1.1300 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
• RES 2: 1.1234 1.618 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1202 High Aug 26 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 1.1136 @ 06:02 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 1.1098/1044 Low Aug 22 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0943 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0778 Low Aug 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0736 Low Jul 3 

Short-term pullbacks in EURUSD appear corrective and a bullish theme remains intact. Last week’s appreciation reinforces a bullish set-up and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a rising trend. Sights are on 1.1234 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is overbought, a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Key short-term support to watch is 1.1044, the 20-day EMA.    

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North   

• RES 4: 1.3425 1.764 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing  
• RES 3: 1.3362 1.618 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing  
• RES 2: 1.3328 76.4% retrace of the Jun 2021 - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3266 High Aug 27 
• PRICE: 1.3210 @ 06:13 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 1.3168 Low Aug 28  
• SUP 2: 1.3077 Low Aug 22
• SUP 3: 1.3023 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2888 50-day EMA

Bullish conditions in GBPUSD remain intact and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Price has recently traded through two important resistance points; 1.3142 and 1.3149, the Jul 14 ’23 high and the top of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 4 ‘23 low. This strengthens bullish conditions and maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.3328, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm support is at 1.3004, the 20-day EMA.               

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play   

• RES 4: 0.8625 High Aug 8 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: 0.8593 High Aug 14  
• RES 2: 0.8545 High Aug 21 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.8468/8494 High Aug 27 / 20-Day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.8426 @ 06:47 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 0.8410 Low Aug 28 
• SUP 2: 0.8383 Low Jul 17 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 ‘22
• SUP 4: 0.8311 3.00 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing  

EURGBP remains in a bear-mode condition following recent weakness. The extension down reinforces the bearish significance of the recent break of the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, the cross has cleared all key retracement points of the rally between Jul 17 - Aug 8. This undermines a recent bullish theme and exposes 0.8383, the Jul 17 low and a key support. Firm resistance is seen at 0.8494, the 20-day EMA.       

USDJPY TECHS: Trading Below The 20-Day EMA        

• RES 4: 153.88 High Jul 31   
• RES 3: 150.84 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 149.39 High Aug 15     
• RES 1: 147.11 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 144.78 @ 06:27 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 143.45 Low Aug 26    
• SUP 2: 141.70/140.82 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger / Low Jan 2
• SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28   

USDJPY continues to trade below the Aug 15 high and the 20-day EMA. The trend structure remains bearish and moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up. A stronger reversal lower would open key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear trend. Key near-term resistance is seen at 147.11, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a stronger correction.    

EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 167.53 Low Jun 14  
• RES 3: 164.99 50-day EMA   
• RES 2: 164.07 200 DMA      
• RES 1: 163.89 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 160.88 @ 07:26 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 159.79 Low Aug 12   
• SUP 2: 157.30/154.42 Low Aug 6 / 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
• SUP 4: 153.23 Low Dec 7 ‘23 and a key support

Despite the latest pullback, EURJPY continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The trend outlook is bearish, and recent gains appear to have been a correction. The move higher has allowed an oversold condition to unwind. The cross has pierced resistance at 162.44, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would expose the 50-day EMA, at 164.99. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would signal the end of the correction and open 154.42, the Aug 5 low.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Northbound 

• RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 ‘23       
• RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance                  
• RES 2: 0.6839 High Jan 2
• RES 1: 0.6813 High Aug 28
• PRICE: 0.6810 @ 07:56 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 0.6689/6650 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: 0.6571 Low Aug 15 
• SUP 3: 0.6508/6350 Low Aug 8/ 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10’23

A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair is trading at this week’s highs. This latest climb has resulted in a print above 0.6799, the Jul 11 / Aug 23 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and pave the way for an extension towards 0.6871, the Dec 28 ‘23 high and the next key resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.6689, the 20-day EMA.      

USDCAD TECHS: Southbound    

• RES 4: 1.3856/3946 High Aug 6 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.3791 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 1.3646 20-day EMA  
• RES 1: 1.3519/3617 High August 26 / 23
• PRICE: 1.3460 @ 16:35 BST Aug 28
• SUP 1: 1.3441 Low Aug 28
• SUP 2: 1.3420 Low Mar 8
• SUP 3: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Aug 5 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5

USDCAD traded lower again in overnight Wednesday trade, marking an extension once again of the bear cycle that started Aug 5. The move down reinforces the current bearish condition. 1.3589, the Jul 11 low, has recently been cleared, strengthening a bearish theme. This sets the scene for an extension towards 1.3358, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 1.3617, last Friday’s intraday high.    

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA 

• RES 4: 136.99 3.382 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing        
• RES 3: 136.45 76.4% of the Dec 27 - May 31 downleg (cont)
• RES 2: 136.28 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger  
• RES 1: 135.17/135.59 High Aug 14 / 6                     
• PRICE: 133.97 @ 05:41 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 133.66 Low Aug 27           
• SUP 2: 133.37 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 132.08 Low Jul 26   
• SUP 4: 131.62 Low Jul 22 and a key support 

Bund futures traded lower Tuesday resulting in a break of the 20-day EMA. Short-term weakness still appears to be corrective and this is allowing the recent overbought condition to unwind. The next support to watch lies at 133.37, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 136.45, a Fibonacci retracement. First resistance is 135.17, the Aug 14 high.     

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 119.730 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
• RES 3: 119.234 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing 
• RES 2:  119.090 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger     
• RES 1: 118.300/118.530 High Aug 14 / 6                
• PRICE: 117.670 @ 05:51 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 117.550 Low Aug 27       
• SUP 2: 117.310/116.700 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26   
• SUP 3: 116.320 Low Jul 22 
• SUP 4: 115.980 Low Jul 10 / 11

Bobl futures traded to a fresh short-term low Tuesday, however price is again trading inside its range. The uptrend is intact and the pullback from the Aug 5 high appears to be a correction. The move down has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains resulted in a breach of a key resistance at 117.160, Jun 14 high. This break reinforces the bull theme. First resistance is 118.300, the Aug 14 high. Firm support is 117.310 the 50-day EMA.             

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Trading Above Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 107.120 2.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing 
• RES 3: 106.916 1.764 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
• RES 2: 106.500/106.810 High Aug 6 / 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 106.360 High Aug 22   
• PRICE: 106.230 @ 05:45 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 106.204 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 106.031/105.820 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26  
• SUP 3: 105.630/495 Low Jul 22 / 11 
• SUP 4: 105.390 Low Jul 5 and a key support 

Schatz futures remain in consolidation mode. An uptrend is intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. For now, the contract continues to trade above a firm support at 106.204, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this EMA would be seen as an early bearish threat. Support at the 50-day EMA, lies at 106.031. A resumption of gains would signal the end of the corrective cycle and open 106.916, a Fibonacci projection.                       

GILT TECHS: (Z4) Retracement Mode                                          

• RES 4: 101.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 100.30 High Aug 14
• RES 2: 99.85 High Aug 22
• RES 1: 99.21 High Aug 27    
• PRICE: 98.71 @ Close Aug 28
• SUP 1: 98.54 Low Aug 27        
• SUP 2: 98.37 1.236 proj of the Aug 14 - 16 - 22 price swing    
• SUP 3: 98.19 1.382 proj of the Aug 14 - 16 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 98.00 Round number support 

Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday and this resulted in a breach of support at 98.79, the Aug 12 low. The break lower highlights scope for a deeper retracement near-term that opens 98.37, a Fibonacci projection. The trend condition remains up and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. A reversal higher would signal the end of the corrective phase. First key resistance to monitor is 99.85, Aug 22 high.       

BTP TECHS: (U4) Pullback Considered Corrective     

• RES 4: 121.25 2.382 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 3: 120.85 2.236 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 2: 120.20 2.00 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 1: 120.00/06 Psychological round number / High Aug 22
• PRICE: 118.90 @ 07:02 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 118.37 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 117.36 Low Jul 26 
• SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8
• SUP 4: 114.72 Low Jul 2

The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and a bullish trend sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact. The latest pullback has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA. A firmer support lies at 118.37, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 120.06, the Aug 22 high.                           

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Bullish Outlook           

• RES 4: 5087.00 High Jul 12   
• RES 3: 4997.00 High Jul 17     
• RES 2: 4951.00 High Jul 31 and a key near-term resistance 
• RES 1: 4947.00 High Aug 28   
• PRICE: 492.00 @ 06:15 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 4854.57 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 4742.00 Low Aug 15  
• SUP 3: 4665.00/4494.00 Low Aug 9 / 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4478.81 2.236 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing

Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding on to their latest gains. The contract has recently pierced the 50-day EMA, at 4877.69. An extension higher would undermine the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. Sights are on 4951.00 next, the Jul 31 high. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 4494.00, the Aug 5 low. Initial support lies at 4854.57, the 20-day EMA.             

E-MINI S&P: (U4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat          

• RES 4: 5821.25 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing  
• RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and Key resistance
• RES 1: 5669.00 High Aug 26        
• PRICE: 5595.50 @ 07:23 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 5508.99 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 5438.75/5319.50 Low Aug 14 / 9 
• SUP 3: 5182.00 Low Aug 8 
• SUP 4: 5120.00 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger

A bullish theme S&P E-Minis is intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high Monday. Price has recently cleared 5600.75, Aug 1 high, signalling scope for an extension towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 5721.25, the Jul 16 high. A break would resume the primary uptrend. Support to watch lies at 5508.99, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it is required to instead highlight a potential bearish threat. The latest move lower appears corrective.   

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X4) Key Resistance Remains Exposed     

• RES 4: $87.64 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 3: $86.24 - High Jul 5 
• RES 2: $83.50 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 5 bear leg 
• RES 1: $81.46 - High Aug 12 and key resistance     
• PRICE: $77.80 @ 07:05 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: $74.62 - Low Aug 5 and a key support  
• SUP 2: $74.64 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $73.16 - Low Dec 13 2023 and a key support
• SUP 4: $70.35 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing   

Brent futures traded sharply higher Monday, marking an extension of the rebound from the Aug 21 low. The contract has since pulled back. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $81.46, the Aug 12 high. A break would highlight a stronger reversal. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would instead expose $74.62, the Aug 5 low and key support.    

WTI TECHS: (V4) Trading Below Its Recent Highs     

• RES 4: $83.45 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 3: $82.62 - High Jul 5 
• RES 2: $80.82 - High Jul 18  
• RES 1: $78.54 - High Aug 12 and key resistance     
• PRICE: $74.77 @ 07:19 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: $73.82/70.88 - Low Aug 28 / Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: $70.43 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $68.92 - Low Dec 13 2023
• SUP 4: $66.66 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing 

WTI futures have recovered from their recent lows and the contract traded sharply higher Monday. However, price has pulled back from its latest highs and again traded lower yesterday. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at $78.54, the Aug 12 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger bullish reversal. For bears, an extension lower would once again expose the $70.88 key support.      

GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat   

• RES 4: $2600.0 - Round number resistance    
• RES 3: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 ‘23 price swing
• RES 2: $2536.4 - 1.50 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing 
• RES 1: $2531.8 - High Aug 20                 
• PRICE: $2520.5 @ 07:21 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: $2475.3 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $2427.3/2353.2 50-day EMA / Low Jul 25 
• SUP 3: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7 
• SUP 4: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support

Trend conditions in Gold are unchanged and remain bullish. The recent breach of $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are still in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a dominant uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards $2536.4 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $2475.3, the 20-day EMA. Short-term weakness would be considered corrective.       

SILVER TECHS: Watching Support The 50-Day EMA   

• RES 4: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg        
• RES 3: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: $31.754/32.518 - High Jul 11 / High May 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $30.502 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 8 bear leg                
• PRICE: $29.539 @ 08:11 BST Aug 28
• SUP 1: $28.979/26.451- 50-day EMA / Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
• SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27 
• SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28 

A medium-term bearish cycle in Silver remains intact and recent gains appear to be a correction - for now. The metal on Aug 8, traded to a fresh cycle low (before rebounding) and this exposed key support at $26.018, May 2 low. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme. Note that the 50-day EMA has been cleared and is a concern for bears. A continuation higher would cancel the bearish theme and expose $30.502 next, a Fibonacci retracement.  

MNI (LONDON)