MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Breaks Lower

Price Signal Summary – Gold Breaks Lower

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis maintain a bullish theme and sights are set on the 4300.00 handle. EUROSTOXX 50 futures found support Jun 21 at 4015.00. Attention is on the Jun 18 sell-off that in pattern terms is a bearish engulfing candle, signalling a potential S/T top. The key directional triggers are; 4015.00, Jun 21 low and 4153.00, Jun 17 and the bull trigger
• In FX, the USD remains on a bullish path despite the recent corrective pullback. The EURUSD focus is on 1.1837 next, 76.4% of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally. GBPUSD remains vulnerable. Attention is on 1.3717 next, Apr 16 low. The bear trigger is 1.3787, Jun 21 low. USDJPY needle still points north. Attention is on 111.30/64, Mar 26, 2020 high and 1.0% 10-dma envelope.
• On the commodity front, the yellow metal has broken lower and cleared support at $1761.1, Jun 18 low. The break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 1 and note the move lower has confirmed the bear flag that developed during the most recent consolidation phase. The oil market trend condition remains bullish and pullbacks are considered corrective. Brent (Q1) focus is $76.97, 1.23 projection of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing. Support lies at $73.22, the 20-day EMA. WTI (Q1) sights are set on $75.01, 1.382 projection of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing. Watch support at $70.93, the 20-day EMA.
• Within FI, Bund futures are consolidating. The contract last week probed support at 171.80, Jun 17 low. A stronger sell-off would expose 171.37, Jun 3 low and 170.99, Mar 31 low and a key short-term support. Key support to watch in Gilt futures is unchanged at 126.70, Jun 3 low and remains an important pivot level. The key resistance is at 128.39, Jun 11 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Pulls Away From Recent Highs

• RES 4: 1.2218 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 1.2147 High Jun 15
• RES 2: 1.2049 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2006/08 High Jun 17 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1900 @ 05:59 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 1.1848 Low Jun 18, 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1837 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally
• SUP 3: 1.1795 Low Apr 6
• SUP 4: 1.1738 Low Apr 5

EURUSD has traded lower this week. The outlook remains bearish. This follows sharp losses between Jun 15 - 18. Price cleared the 50-day EMA and a former support at 1.2104, Jun 4 low, highlighting a bearish tone and confirming a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Attention is on 1.1837, a Fibonacci retracement where a break would open 1.1704, Mar 31 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is 1.2006, the Jun 17 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.4203/48 High Jun 3 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.4133 High Jun 16
• RES 2: 1.4074 Low Jun 10
• RES 1: 1.3997/4001 50-day EMA / High Jun 23
• PRICE: 1.3849 @ 06:04 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 1.3787 Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3669 Low Apr 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

GBPUSD traded lower again yesterday. Bears still appear to be in charge following recent weakness that resulted in the break of S/T support levels at the 50-day EMA and 1.4006, May 13 low. Cable is once below the 100-DMA, reinforcing current bearish conditions. Scope is seen for an extension lower towards 1.3717, Apr 14 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.4001, Jun 23 high. The bear trigger is 1.3787, Jun 21 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Gains Are Likely Corrective

• RES 4: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 3: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8646/72 High Jun 1 / High May 25
• RES 1: 0.8609/29 High Jun 29 and the 50-day EMA / High Jun 15
• PRICE: 0.8592 @ 06:13 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 0.8530/31 Low June 23 / 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
• SUP 2: 0.8488 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8402 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURGBP remains above recent lows. The outlook however is bearish. Support at 0.8561, May 12 low was breached Jun 17. This highlighted the end of the recent consolidation signalling scope for a deeper pullback. The focus is on 0.8531, 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally and just above last week's low. A break would expose key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8646, Jun 1 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 112.23 High Feb 20, 2020 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 111.71 High Mar 24 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 111.30/69 High Mar 26, 2020 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 111.12 High Jun 24
• PRICE: 110.47 @ 06:25 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 110.21/109.72 Low Jun 22 / Low June 21
• SUP 2: 109.55/19 50-day EMA / Low Jun 7
• SUP 3: 108.56/34 Low May 25 / Low May 7 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger

USDJPY is lower and dips are still considered corrective. The pair traded higher last week and registered fresh 2021 highs following the print above Y110.97, Mar 31 high. This cements the uptrend, maintaining a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on 111.30/69, the Mar 26, 2020 high and 1.0% 10-dma envelope. Initial key support is unchanged at 109.72, Jun 21 low. A break would signal a top.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 134.13 High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 133.76 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 132.88 High Jun 17
• RES 1: 132.70 High Jun 23
• PRICE: 131.49 @ 06:33 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 131.22/130.04 Low Jun 22 / Low Jun 21 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 129.59 Low Apr 23
• SUP 3: 128.83 Low Mar 29
• SUP 4: 128.29 Low Mar 24 and key support

The short-term trend outlook in EURJPY remains bearish and the cross has pulled away from recent highs. A bearish theme follows the sharp move lower between Jun 15 - 21. The cross traded through the 50-day EMA and breached bull channel support drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. The break lower highlights a reversal and price has also recently probed the 100-dma. Attention is on 130.00 and 129.59, Apr 23 low. Resistance is seen at 132.88.

AUDUSD TECHS: Price Conditions Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 0.7776 High Jun 11
• RES 3: 0.7673 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.7645 High Jun 17
• RES 1: 0.7617 High Jun 25
• PRICE: 0.7521 @ 06:41 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 0.7508/7476 Low Jun 29 / Low Jun 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.7462 Low Dec 21, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.7372 1.236 proj of Feb 25 - Mar 9 - 18 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.7339 Low Nov 30, 2020

AUDUSD is trading lower this week. The outlook remains bearish following recent weakness that resulted in a break of key support at 0.7532 Apr 1 low. Price is also back below the 200-dma. The move through 0.7532 confirmed a resumption of the reversal that occurred Feb 25 and signals scope for a deeper pullback towards 0.7462 next, the Dec 21, 2020 low. Initial firm resistance is at 0.7617, the Jun 25 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.2653 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2535 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 1.2487/2501 High Jun 21 / 76.4% of Apr 21 - Jun 1 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2404 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2391 @ 06:48 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 1.2268/53 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 1.2157 Low Jun 16
• SUP 3: 1.2057 Low Jun 7
• SUP 4: 1.2007 Low May 18 and key support

USDCAD short-term conditions remain bullish. The recent break of 1.2203, May 6 high confirmed a short-term reversal and the pair has also cleared the 50-day EMA, reinforcing bullish conditions. Attention is on 1.2501, a Fibonacci retracement. A break would open 1.2653, Apr 21 high and an important resistance. Initial support is seen at 1.2253, Jun 23 low. Note the 50-day EMA at 1.2268 also marks support.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) In A Range

• RES 4: 173.79 High Apr 8
• RES 3: 173.32 76.4% retracement of the Mar 25 - May 19 sell-off
• RES 2: 173.16 High Jun 11
• RES 1: 172.46/73.03 High Jun 23 / High Jun 21
• PRICE: 172.09 @ 05:07 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 171.67 Low Jun 22
• SUP 2: 171.37 Low Jun 3
• SUP 3: 170.99 Low May 31 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 170.56 Low May 24

Bund futures are unchanged and continue to consolidate. A bearish outlook remains intact though. The contract probed 171.80, Jun 17 low last week. A clear break would signal scope for a deeper pullback and confirm a breach of the 50-day EMA. This would open 171.37, Jun 3 low ahead of a firmer support at 170.99, Mar 31 low. Key resistance is 173.16, Jun 11 high where a break would instead confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started May 19.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 134.758 1.382 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 134.663 1.236 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 134.510 1.00 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 134.120/250 High Jun 24 / High Jun 17
• PRICE: 134.000 @ 05:17 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 133.860 Low May 28, 31, Jun 22 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 133.700 76.4% retracement of the May 20 - Jun 11 rally
• SUP 3: 133.530 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 133.450 Low May 20 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures continue to consolidate above last week's low. Although the recent move lower is considered corrective, a near-term bearish risk remains present. Price is below the 20-day EMA and key support lies at 133.860, May 28, 31 and Jun 22 low. A break lower would strengthen a bearish case. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 134.510, a Fibonacci projection and the Jun 11 high. Initial firm resistance is at 134.250.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 112.210 High Jun 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 112.185 High Jun 15 and 16
• RES 2: 112.175 High Jun 17 and 18
• RES 1: 112.140/165 High Jun 23, 24 / High Jun 21
• PRICE: 112.135 @ 05:27 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 112.110 Low Apr 20, Jun 22, 23, 25 and 28
• SUP 2: 112.086 138.2% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally
• SUP 3: 112.075 150.0% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally
• SUP 4: 112.064 161.8% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally

Schatz futures are consolidating but remain vulnerable. The contract traded lower last week and breached 112.120, May 17 and Jun 21 low. Note too that price has tested the 112.110 support, Apr 20 low and the low last week. Scope is seen for a move towards 112.086 and 112.075, Fibonacci retracement extensions. Initial firm resistance is 112.165, Jun 21 high. A break would ease the bearish threat and open 112.185, Jun 15, 16 highs.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Trading Closer To Recent Highs

• RES 4: 128.92 1.236 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 3: 128.50 1.00 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 128.39 High Jun 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 128.09 High Jun 28
• PRICE: 127.96 @ Close Jun 29
• SUP 1: 127.25/126.91 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 126.70 Low Jun 23 / Low Jun 3 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 126.55 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 126.12 Low May 19

Gilt futures are trading closer to recent highs. The contract on Jun 9, breached 127.74, May 26 high. This confirmed a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and the positive price condition remains intact. The pullback between Jun 11 - 17 is considered corrective and importantly, price remains above a key S/T pivot support at 126.70, Jun 3 low. A recovery would open 128.39, Jun 11 high. A break of 126.70 would instead be bearish.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 153.40 1.236 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 152.66 1.00 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 151.68/152.47 High Jun 17 / High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 151.04 High Jun 22
• PRICE: 150.76 @ Close Jun 29
• SUP 1: 149.97 Low Jun 25
• SUP 2: 149.74 50.0% retracement of the May 19 - Jun 14 rally
• SUP 3: 149.53 Low May 28
• SUP 4: 149.09 61.8% retracement of the May 19 - Jun 14 rally

BTP futures traded lower Jun 25 and breached support at 150.11, the Jun 8 low. This signals scope for an extension of the current corrective pullback and attention turns to 149.74, a Fibonacci retracement with this week's gains likely a correction. A break of 149.74 would open 149.53, May 28 low. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 151.04, Jun 22 high. A break would ease the current bearish pressure and expose 151.68, Jun 17 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Bearish Engulfing Candle Still A Threat

• RES 4: 4265.00 High Jan 15, 2008
• RES 3: 4200.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4175.00 Nov 26, 2008 low (cont)
• RES 1: 4153.00 High Jun 17 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 4096.50 @ 05:48 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 4032.20/15.00 Channel base from Feb 26 (cont) / Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: 4014.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3914.00 Low May 20
• SUP 4: 3871.00 Low May 19

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are caught in a range and consolidating. The contract found support Jun 21 at 4015.00. Attention remains on the Jun 18 price action that in pattern terms is a bearish engulfing candle, signalling a S/T top. Trend conditions are overbought and a pullback would allow this to unwind. A resumption of weakness would expose the 50-day EMA at 4014.40 Key resistance and the bull trigger is 4153.00, Jun 17 high.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Approaching 4300.00

• RES 4: 4415.48 1.00 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 4322.15 0.764 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 4300.00 Round Number Resistance
• RES 1: 4291.00 High Jun 29
• PRICE: 4285.50 @ 06:52 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 4227.36 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4126.75 Low Jun 21 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 4100.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4020.20 Low May 13 and key short-term support

S&P E-minis traded to fresh all-time highs again yesterday maintaining the current bullish theme and bullish price sequence. The contract recently recovered from support around the 50-day EMA and this reinforces bullish conditions. The rally from the EMA on Jun 21 also confirmed an important bull signal - a bullish piercing candle pattern. Attention is on 4300.00. Key short-term trend support is 4126.75, low Jun 21.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q1) 20-Day EMA Marks Initial Support

• RES 4: $79.63 - 1.50 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 3: $78.03 - High Oct 29, 2018
• RES 2: $76.97 - 1.23 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 1: $76.60 - High Jun 28
• PRICE: $75.10 @ 06:51 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: $73.37 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $72.01 - Low Jun 17 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $69.90 - High May 18 and the recent break out level
• SUP 4: $67.75 - Low May 25

Brent crude futures traded higher Monday but stalled at the session high and is trading lower. The outlook remains bullish though. Last week's recovery resulted in fresh trend highs following the clearance of $74.96 Jun 16 high. The move confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A break below $72.01 is needed to signal a top. Initial support to watch is at $73.37, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (Q1) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: $77.35 - 1.618 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 3: $76.18 - 1.50 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $75.01 - 1.382 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 1: $74.45 - High Jun 28
• PRICE: $73.26 @ 07:04 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: $71.12/69.54 - 20-day EMA / Low Jun 17 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: $67.74 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $66.80 - High May 18
• SUP 4: $65.02 - Low May 26

WTI crude once again resumed its uptrend Monday extending last week's gains. Despite pulling back from the high, the outlook remains bullish. A positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains intact and signals scope for further upside with attention on $75.01, a Fibonacci projection. Key support has been defined at $69.54, Jun 17 low. A break is required to signal a top. Initial support is at $71.12, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Flag Confirmed

• RES 4: $1903.8/16.6 - High Jun 8 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $1877.7 - High Jun 14
• RES 2: $1825.4 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $1795.0/1813.2 - High Jun 23 / High 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1758.8 @ 07:18 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: $1750.8 - Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: $1733.5 -76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 3: $1723.8 - Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: $1700.00 - Round number support

Gold traded lower and cleared support at $1761.1, Jun 18 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 1 and note the move lower has also confirmed the bear flag that developed during the most recent period of consolidation. This opens $1733.5, a Fibonacci retracement ahead of $1723.8, Apr 13 low. On the upside, initial resistance has been defined at $1795.00, Jun 23 high.

SILVER TECHS: Probes Support

• RES 4: $28.556 - High Jun 1
• RES 3: $28.285 - High Jun 11 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $27.831 - High Jun 16
• RES 1: $26.495/27.245 - High Jun 18 / High Jun 17
• PRICE: $25.790 @ 07:24 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: $25.554/529 - Low Jun 21 / Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: $24.955 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 18 rally
• SUP 4: $24.686 - Low Apr 13

Silver traded lower yesterday and the outlook remains bearish following the recent sharp sell-off. The metal did probe support yesterday but remains in its range and what appears to be a bear flag formation. The pattern reinforces current bearish conditions. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA. Attention is on $24.955 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at $27.245, Jun 17 high.