MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Breaks to Fresh Trend Highs​

Tech Focus: Gold Breaks To Fresh Trend Highs
- The yellow metal has rallied over the past two sessions to clear resistance at $1797.9, Apr 22 high.
- This week's gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started early August where a reversal pattern in the shape of a double bottom began. This pattern was confirmed on Apr 8.
- On the downside, key support has been defined at $1756.2. Initial support is seen at $1722.2, the 20-day EMA.
- Key resistance levels to watch:
* RES 1: $1830.8 - High Feb 12
* RES 2: $1851.5 - 50.0% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off
* RES 3: $1855.5 - High Feb 10

Price Signal Summary - E-mini S&P Holding Above Support

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis have pulled back from recent highs. Support levels to watch are 4110.50, Apr 20 low and trendline support that intersects at 4108.75, drawn off the Mar 4 low. This support zone will likely determine the outcome of this correction - will it be a shallow one if support holds or develop into a deeper pullback on a break?
• In FX, EURUSD is firmer today however a near-term bearish risk remains present. Last week the pair failed to confirm a clear break of the bear channel resistance drawn off the Jan 6 high. The subsequent sell-off is bearish. Watch support at, 1.2013/1989, the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This support zone has been probed, a clear break would open 1.1943, Apr 19 low. GBPUSD is consolidating. The pair remains below 1.4009, Apr 20 high. The break on Apr 30 of support at 1.3824, Apr 22 low highlights a bearish risk. The focus is on 1.3717, Apr 16 low. USDJPY maintains a bullish tone following last week's gains. Attention is on 109.96 next, Apr 9 high.
• On the commodity front, the Gold outlook is bullish and the focus is on $1805.7, Feb 25 high. Watch key short-term support at $1756.2, Apr 29 low. The Brent (N1) uptrend remains intact. The focus is on the psychological $70.00 level and $71.75, Jan 8 2020 high (cont). WTI bulls are eyeing the key resistance at $67.29, Mar 8 high.
• In the FI space, Bunds (M1) have recently breached 170.05, 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Mar 25 rally. This opens 169.24, Feb 25 low. Short-term gains are considered corrective. Short-term risk in Gilts is skewed to the downside. The next support and intraday bear trigger is at 127.32, Apr 1 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bounce Appears Corrective

• RES 4: 1.2243 High Feb 25 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2184 High Feb 26
• RES 2: 1.2150 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2089 High May 7
• PRICE: 1.2065 @ 06:02 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 1.1992/86 50-day EMA / Low May 5
• SUP 2: 1.1943 Low Apr 19
• SUP 3: 1.1861 Low Apr 7 and 8
• SUP 4: 1.1795 Low Apr 6

EURUSD is bouncing early Friday. Short-term gains appear to be a correction though and a bearish theme remains in place following the recent move lower from 1.2150, Apr 29 high. This highlighted a failed attempt to confirm a clear break of a bear channel top drawn off the Jan 6 high. A firm support is at 1.2018/1992, the 20 and 50-day EMAs. This zone has been probed, a breach would trigger a stronger sell-off. Clearance of 1.2150 reinstates the uptrend.

GBPUSD TECHS: Consolidating With Resistance Intact

• RES 4: 1.4176 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4103 76.4% retracement of the Feb 24 - Apr 12 downleg
• RES 2: 1.4009/17 High Apr 20 / High Mar 4
• RES 1: 1.3977 High Apr 29
• PRICE: 1.3908 @ 06:05 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 1.3801 Low May 3
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3670/69 Low Mar 25 / Low Apr 12 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

GBPUSD is unchanged and still consolidating. The outlook is bearish though. The pair traded sharply lower Apr 30 breaching support at 1.3824, Apr 22 low. The move through 1.3824 and the recent failure to tackle resistance at 1.4009, Apr 20 high, highlights the risk of a pullback towards 1.3669, Apr 12 low. Clearance of this support level would strengthen a bearish case. Cable needs to clear resistance at 1.4009 to reinstate a bullish theme.

EURGBP TECHS: Attention Is On Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8840 High Feb 4
• RES 3: 0.8791/8857 High Feb 12 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 0.8721 High Apr 26 and the bull Trigger
• PRICE: 0.8676 @ 06:16 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 0.8624 Low May 5
• SUP 2: 0.8589 Low Apr 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020

EURGBP bounced Thursday, countering some of the weakness seen earlier in the week. Attention is on the resistance at 0.8721, Apr 26 high. The recovery from 0.8589, Apr 19 low signals scope for an extension higher and a clear breach of 0.8721 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 4. This would open 0.8731, Feb 26 high and 0.8762, a retracement. Key support is at 0.8589, Apr 19 low. A break would be bearish.

USDJPY TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
• RES 3: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 110.55 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 109.70/96 High May 3 / High Apr 9
• PRICE: 109.07 @ 06:21 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 108.44 Low Apr 29 and trendline support drawn off Jan 6 low
• SUP 2: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.97 Low Mar 4
• SUP 4: 106.78 50.0% retracement of the Jan - Mar rally

USDJPY is slightly weaker. The outlook is unchanged though and remains bullish. This theme follows the recent recovery from 107.48, Apr 23 low and the failure to confirm a clear break of trendline support drawn the Jan 6 low. With the trendline intact and MA studies in bull mode, further gains are likely. Attention is on 109.96, Apr 9 high. Initial support is at 108.44, Apr 29 low. A break of 107.48 though is required to reinstate a bearish theme.

EURJPY TECHS: Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 133.50/77 Bull channel top / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 133.13 High Sep 21, 2018 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 132.68 High Sep 27, 2018
• RES 1: 132 36/37 2.236 of Jun-Sep-Oct 2020 swing/High Apr 29
• PRICE: 131.59 @ 06:26 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 130.97 High Apr 20 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 130.87 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 130.57 Low Apr 27
• SUP 4: 129.99 Bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low

EURJPY outlook remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. The cross recently cleared 130.97, Apr 20 high and attention is on 132.36, a Fibonacci projection. This level has recently been tested, a clear break would signal scope for an extension higher within the bull channel drawn off the Oct 30 2020 low. Moving average studies are in a bull mode reinforcing current conditions. Support is at 130.57, Apr 27 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Holding Above Support

• RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7895 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 2: 0.7849 High Mar 18 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 0.7816/18 High Apr 20 / 29
• PRICE: 0.7775 @ 06:32 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 0.7675 Low May 4
• SUP 2: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 0.7586 Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: 0.7532/17 Low Apr 1 and the bear trigger / Low Dec 22

AUDUSD earlier this week traded below first support at 0.7691, Apr 22 low. This threatens the bullish price structure that has dominated since the recent break of a trendline resistance drawn off the Feb 25 high. A move below 0.7691 would open losses toward 0.7635 and the 0.7586 key near-term support. Resistance is unchanged at 0.7816/18 the 18 Apr 29 highs. A clear break of this hurdle would be bullish and open 0.7849 instead, Mar 18 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Major Support

• RES 4: 1.2419 High Apr 27
• RES 3: 1.2388 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.2351 High May 4 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.2288 High May 7
• PRICE: 1.2167 @ 06:46 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 1.2143 Low May 7
• SUP 2: 1.2129 1.50 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2070 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2062 Low Sep 2017 and a major support

USDCAD traded sharply lower Thursday, hitting new cycle lows of 1.2143 and cleared a number of supports in the process. This keeps the pair solidly in bear mode and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. MA studies also highlight a downside bias, reinforcing current trend conditions. The pair is approaching a major support at 1.2062, the Sep 2017 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at 1.2288, yesterday's high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Trading Closer To The Week's Highs

• RES 4: 171.62 High Apr 14
• RES 3: 171.34 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 171.27 High Apr 22
• RES 1: 170.88 High Apr 6
• PRICE: 170.46 @ 05:00 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 169.89 Low Apr 4
• SUP 2: 169.47/24 Low Apr 3 / Low Feb 24 and major support
• SUP 3: 168.96 0.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 168.52 Low Mar 20, 2020 (cont)

Bund futures are largely unchanged and continue to trade close to recent highs. Despite this week's gains, a downtrend remains intact. The downleg that started Mar 25 has opened the key support at 169.24, Feb 25 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and expose 169.00 and below. Initial resistance is seen at 170.88, Apr 6 high. The area around the 50-day EMA at 171.34 represents a key resistance.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Remains Below The 50-day EMA

• RES 4: 135.350 High Apr 8
• RES 3: 135.180 High Apr 14
• RES 2: 135.050/52 High Apr 22 / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 135.040 High May 6
• PRICE: 134.920 @ 05:10 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 134.690 Low May 4
• SUP 2: 134.560 Low May 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 134.466 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 4: 134.140 Low Feb 26 and key support

Bobl futures have traded higher. Despite these gains, a downtrend remains intact and gains are considered corrective. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA. The area around the 50-day EMA at 135.052 marks a key near-term resistance area. A resumption of weakness would again open 134.466, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of the 50-day EMA however would alter the picture and highlight a stronger short-term bullish outlook.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 112.165 High Mar 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 112.150 High Apr 8
• RES 2: 112.120 High Apr 22 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 112.110 High May 4, 5 and 6
• PRICE: 112.095 @ 05:17 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 112.060/055 Congestion support in Mar and Apr / Low Apr 3
• SUP 2: 112.053 50.0% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 3: 112.026 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 4: 111.993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Schatz futures, while firmer this week, remain below the 112.120 resistance, Apr 22 high and recent gains are still considered a correction. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support at 112.060, a level that provided support in March and April but was probed Monday. A clear break would strengthen a bearish case and open 112.053 and 112.026, Fibonacci retracements. On the upside, a breach of 112.120 alters the picture.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Corrective Gains

• RES 4: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 3: 129.09/27 High Apr 23 and the reversal trigger / High Mar 2
• RES 2: 128.66/128.72 High Apr 26 / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 128.51 High May 4
• PRICE: 128.27 @ Close May 6
• SUP 1: 127.40 Low Apr 29
• SUP 2: 127.32 Low Apr 1
• SUP 3: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)

Gilt futures traded higher yesterday. Despite this week's gains a bearish theme remains intact after the breach on Apr 28/29 of support at 127.81, Apr 14 low. This move strengthens a bearish case following the recent pullback from 129.09, Apr 23 high and the area of resistance around the 50-day EMA. An extension lower would open 127.32, Apr 1 low ahead of the key support at 126.79, Mar 18 low. Key resistance is unchanged at 129.09.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Needle Points South

• RES 4: 149.47 High Apr 8
• RES 3: 148.85 High Apr 15
• RES 2: 148.65 High Apr 22
• RES 1: 147.79/87 High May 4 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 147.18 @ Close May 6
• SUP 1: 146.70 Low May 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 146.54 0.764 proj of the Feb 12 - 26 - Mar 11 price swing
• SUP 3: 146.16 Low Sep 21, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 145.56 Low Sep 15, 2020 (cont)

BTP futures outlook is unchanged and remains bearish following the move lower since Mar 25. The contract has recently probed key support at 146.84, Feb 26 low and the bear trigger. A clear breach would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that has been in place since Feb 12. This would open 146.54 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 148.65, Apr 22 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (M1) Testing Key Resistance At 4000

• RES 4: 4200.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4099.00 1.00 proj of of the Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 2: 4023.00 Low Aug 16, 2007
• RES 1: 4000.00 High Apr 16, intraday high and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 3998.00 @ 05:48 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 3882.00 Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 2: 3859.34 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3821.00 High Mar 18 and recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 3788.00 Low Mar 26

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are trading at the week's high and against key resistance at 4000.00, Apr 16 high and the bull trigger. A breach of this hurdle would confirm the end of a recent shallow correction and importantly a resumption of the underlying uptrend. This would open 4023.00, Aug 16 low, 2007. On the downside, a key support has been defined at 3882.00, May 4 low. A break would signal a top and the start of a deeper correction.

E-MINI S&P (M1): Stable Above Support

• RES 4: 4298.20 Bull channel top drawn off the Apr 4 low
• RES 3: 4254.99 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 4239.26 1.764 proj of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing
• RES 1: 4211.00 High Apr 29
• PRICE: 4196.50 @ 09:28 BST May 7
• SUP 1: 4120.50 Low May 4
• SUP 2: 4110.50 Low Apr 20 and key support
• SUP 3: 4108.50 Bull channel base drawn off the Apr 4 low
• SUP 4: 4039.77 50-day EMA

The e-mini S&P is consolidating and remains below Tuesday's high. The recovery from the Tuesday low provides further evidence that dip buyers remain a key driver for markets. Furthermore, key support at 4110.50, May 4 low and 4108.75, a bull channel base remain intact. This keeps the outlook bullish with the focus on 4211.00, Apr 29 high and the bull trigger. A break would open 4239.96, a Fibonacci projection.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N1) Bulls Eyeing $70.00

• RES 4: $71.95 - High Sep 16, 2019 (cont)
• RES 3: $71.75 - High Jan 8 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $69.95 - High May 5
• PRICE: $68.62 @ 06:42 BST May 7
• SUP 1: $67.37 - Low May 4
• SUP 2: $66.10 - Low May 3
• SUP 3: $64.28/13 - 50-day EMA / Low Apr 26
• SUP 4: $61.97 - Low Apr 5

Brent crude futures maintain a bullish tone and have this week resumed their upleg. Price Wednesday probed key resistance at $69.73, Mar 8 high. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend and extend the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This would open $71.75, the Jan 8, 2020 high (cont). On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at $66.10.

WTI TECHS: (M1) Bullish Price Structure

• RES 4: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $67.95 - High Oct 29, 2018
• RES 2: $67.29 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $66.76 - High May 5
• PRICE: $65.06 @ 08:01 BST May 7
• SUP 1: $64.29 - Low May 4
• SUP 2: $62.91 - Low May 3 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $60.61 - Low Apr 22 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $58.77 - Low Apr 12

WTI futures maintain a bullish tone, having resumed their climb this week. The contract has probed resistance at $66.15, Mar 15 high where a clear break would pave the way for a test of the key hurdle for bulls at $67.29, Mar 8 high. Clearance of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. On the downside, firm near-term support has been defined at $62.91, May 3 low.

GOLD TECHS: Uptrend Extends

• RES 4: $1875.7 - High Jan 29
• RES 3: $1855.5 - High Feb 10
• RES 2: $1851.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off
• RES 1: $1830.8 - High Feb 12
• PRICE: $1819.6 @ 07:09 BST May 7
• SUP 1: $1799.1 - High May 4 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: $1778.8 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1756.2 - Low Apr 29 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $1734.5 - Low Apr 15

Gold rallied yesterday and cleared resistance at $1797.9, Apr 22 high. The gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started early August where a reversal pattern in the shape of a double bottom began. This pattern was confirmed on Apr 8. The move higher paves the way for a climb towards $1851.5, the 61.8% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off. On the downside, ket support has been defined at $1756.2.

SILVER TECHS: Trades To Fresh Highs

• RES 4: $28.609 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 1 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 3: $28.328 - High Feb 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $27.686 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 1 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 1: $27.547 - High May 6
• PRICE: $27.282 @ 07:15 BST May 7
• SUP 1: $26.169 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $25.718 - Low Apr 29 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $25.636 - Low Apr 19
• SUP 4: $25.199 - Low Apr 14

Silver remains bullish. The metal rallied Monday and again yesterday, extending the current upleg. This strengthens a bullish case and confirms a resumption of the recovery from Mar 31. With moving average signals also in a bull mode, further gains are likely towards $27.686 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $25.718, Apr 29 low. A break is required to dampen the current bullish mood.