MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Finds Support Ahead of Multi-Year Low

Price Signal Summary – Gold Finds Support Ahead of Multi-Year Low

• S&P E-Minis traded lower Thursday, extending the pullback from 3928.00, the Nov 1 high. Despite the latest retracement, a bull cycle remains in play following the recovery from 3502.00, Oct 13 low. A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact despite the pullback from Tuesday’s high of 3679.00. Recent gains have resulted in a print above resistance at 3678.00, the Sep 13 high.
• EURUSD traded in a volatile manner across both the Wednesday and Thursday sessions. This resulted in a move below a key area of support around 0.9812, marking the top of the bear channel that was breached last week. EURGBP found support Thursday and traded higher into the close. The short-term trend needle continues to point south, despite yesterday’s move higher. The recent print below 0.8579, Oct 17 low, reinforces a bearish condition. AUDUSD traded lower again Thursday, extending the pullback from its recent high of 0.6522 on Oct 27. The move lower has undermined the recent bullish theme and attention turns to the key support at 0.6170, the Oct 13 low.
• A downtrend in Gold remains intact. A bearish theme follows the reversal from $1729.5, Oct 4 high and the subsequent move lower signals the end of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 bull phase. WTI futures are trading higher today. The outlook is bullish and the continued recovery from Monday’s low reinforces this theme. The contract has defined a key short-term support at $81.30, the Oct 18 low.
• Bund futures traded lower Thursday and, in the process, breached support at 137.57, the Oct 27 low. The break of this level undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Gilt futures maintain a bullish theme. Recent consolidation appears to be a bull flag formation, reinforcing the uptrend. Price remains above the 20-day EMA and the continuation higher recently resulted in a break of key resistance at 100.92.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Has Breached Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 1.0273 1.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 1.0198 High Sep 12 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.9976/1.0094 High Nov 2 / High Oct 27
• RES 1: 0.9859 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.9779 @ 05:55 GMT Nov 04
• SUP 1: 0.9730 Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 0.9705 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 0.9633 Low Oct 13 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.9536 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger

EURUSD traded in a volatile manner across both the Wednesday and Thursday sessions. This resulted in a move below a key area of support around 0.9812, marking the top of the bear channel that was breached last week. The breach of this support undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper pullback, towards 0.9633 initially, the Oct 13 low. Firm resistance is seen at 0.9976, the Nov 2 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Support Appears Exposed

• RES 4: 1.1799 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - 12 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1738/87 High Sep 13 / 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1566/1645 High Oct 27 / High Nov 1
• RES 1: 1.1356 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1213 @ 06:01 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 1.1150 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.1061 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 1.0924 Low Oct 12 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.0763 Low Sep 29

GBPUSD traded lower Thursday, extending the pullback from 1.1645, the Nov 1 high and a key short-term resistance. Price has traded below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and Thursday’s extension lower has exposed 1.1061, the Oct 21 low. The next key support lies at 1.0924, the Oct 12 low, where a break would strengthen a developing bearish threat. For bulls, a reversal higher and a break of 1.1645, is required to reinstate the recent bull cycle.

EURGBP TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.9066/9266 High Sep 28 / High Sep 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8781/8867 High Oct 21 / 12
• RES 1: 0.8743 High Nov 03
• PRICE: 0.8717 @ 06:56 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 0.8559 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 2: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 3: 0.8471 Low Aug 28
• SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24

EURGBP found support Thursday and traded higher into the close. The short-term trend needle continues to point south, despite yesterday’s move higher. The recent print below 0.8579, Oct 17 low, reinforces a bearish condition and attention is on 0.8559 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open 0.8522, the Aug 30 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is 0.8781, Oct 21 high, where a break would reinstate a bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 153.39 3.764 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 152.30 High Jul 1990
• RES 2: 151.95 High Oct 21
• RES 1: 149.71 High Oct 24
• PRICE: 147.89 @ 06:43 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 145.68/145.11 Low Nov 2 / Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 144.66 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 143.53 Low Oct 5
• SUP 4: 141.77 Low Sep 23

USDJPY is consolidating. The pair still appears vulnerable and continues to trade below resistance at 149.71. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the 50-day EMA at 144.66 - a key support. Clearance of the average would signal scope for a deeper pullback. Momentum studies continue to trend down. For bulls, a break of 149.71 would be a positive development and this would expose the bull trigger at 151.95, Oct 21 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 149.46 1.382 proj of the May 12 - Jun 28 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 148.88 High Dec 9 2014
• RES 2: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
• RES 1: 146.80/147.75 High Nov 2 / High Oct 31
• PRICE: 144.67 @ 06:50 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 143.80 Low Oct 24 and key support
• SUP 2: 143.31 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 141.78 Low Oct 13
• SUP 4: 140.90 Low Oct 10

EURJPY maintains this week’s bearish tone and has cleared the 20-day EMA. Key support to watch lies at 143.80, Oct 24 low. A break would suggest scope for a deeper retracement and open 141.78, the Oct 13 low. Key resistance is unchanged at 148.40, the Oct 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Aug 2 and would open 149.46, a Fibonacci retracement.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 0.6682 Low Jul 14 and a recent breakout level
• RES 3: 0.6656 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 0.6600 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 0.6517/47 50-day EMA / High Oct 4 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6348 @ 06:57 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 0.6272 Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 0.6210/6170 Low Oct 21 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6133 1.382 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6099 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull cycle

AUDUSD traded lower again Thursday, extending the pullback from its recent high of 0.6522 on Oct 27. The move lower has undermined the recent bullish theme and attention turns to the key support at 0.6170, the Oct 13 low. This is the trigger for a resumption of the longer-term downtrend. On the upside, a recovery and break of 0.6522 is required to signal scope for a stronger corrective bull cycle.

USDCAD TECHS: Remains Above The Key Support Zone

• RES 4: 1.4016 3.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 1.3855/3977 High Oct 21 / 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3808 High Nov 03
• PRICE: 1.3647 @ 07:05 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 1.3499/96 50-day EMA / Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 1.3409 Low Sep 22
• SUP 3: 1.3358 Low Sep 21
• SUP 4: 1.3227 Low Sep 20

USDCAD continues to trade above 1.3496, the Oct 27 low and remains above the 50-day EMA, at 1.3499. These two chart points highlight an important support zone. If breached, the break would trigger an extension of the bear cycle that started Oct 13. On the upside, this week’s move higher has exposed 1.3855, the Oct 21 high, where a break would undermine the recent bearish tone and instead open 1.3977, the Oct 13 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Retracement Extends

• RES 4: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 3: 141.74 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 140.54/92 50-day EMA / High Oct 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 138.19/139.95 20-day EMA / High Nov 1
• PRICE: 137.41 @ 05:16 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 136.71 Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 135.65 76.4% retracement of the Oct 21 - 28 bull phase
• SUP 3: 136.46/134.02 Low Oct 25 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 133.74 0.618 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing

Bund futures traded lower Thursday and in the process breached support at 137.57, the Oct 27 low. The break of this level undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Attention turns to 136.46, the Oct 25 low. Note that key support is still far off at 134.02, the Oct 21 low. On the upside, key resistance is at the 50-day EMA, at 140.54. Clearance of the average is required to strengthen a bullish case.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Maintains A Softer Tone

• RES 4: 122.510 High Sep 12
• RES 3: 121.950 High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 121.010/330 High Oct 28 / 5
• RES 1: 119.550/120.420 20-day EMA / High Nov 1
• PRICE: 119.060 @ 05:20 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 118.730 Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 118.430 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 117.630 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 117.342 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures traded lower Thursday and breached support at 119.090, the Oct 27 low. This undermines the recent bullish theme and an extension lower would highlight the risk of a pullback towards the key support and a bear trigger at 117.630, the Oct 21 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 121.010, the Oct 28 high. A break of this level is required to confirm a resumption of bullish activity.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 107.770 High Oct 4 and the reversal trigger
• RES 3: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 107.165/400 High Nov 1 / High Oct 28
• RES 1: 106.944 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 106.710 @ 05:53 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 106.615 Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 106.350 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.00 Round number support

The continuation lower this week in Schatz futures undermines the recent bull theme. The contract has cleared initial support at 106.710, the Oct 27 low. The break strengthens a bearish threat and an extension lower would highlight potential for a test of the key support and bear trigger at 106.350, the Oct 21 low. Key resistance is at 107.400, Oct 28 high. A break would confirm a resumption of bullish activity.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Bull Flag

• RES 4: 106.84 High Sep 8
• RES 3: 106.25 High Sep 12
• RES 2: 105.34 High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 104.39 High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 102.10 @ Close Nov 3
• SUP 1: 100.38 Low Oct 25
• SUP 2: 98.15 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 95.82 Low Oct 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 94.82/92.66 Low Oct 17 / 14

Gilt futures maintain a bullish theme. Recent consolidation appears to be a bull flag formation, reinforcing the uptrend. Price remains above the 20-day EMA and the continuation higher recently resulted in a break of key resistance at 100.92, the Oct 4 high. The breach strengthens bullish conditions and opens 105.34 next, the Sep 23 high. Key support has been defined at 95.82, the Oct 21 low. A break of this level would be bearish.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Retracement Extends

• RES 4: 121.32 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 119.06 High Sep 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 116.54/117.93 High Nov 1 / High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 113.67 @ Close Nov 3
• SUP 1: 112.98 Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 112.07/110.14 Low Oct 25 / 14
• SUP 3: 108.82 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 108.13 Low Sep 28 and key support

BTP futures continue to trade below 117.93, the Oct 27 high. The short-term outlook is bullish following last week’s climb, however, the contract traded lower again Thursday. A continuation down would undermine a bull theme and expose the next support at 112.07, Oct 25 low. Key support lies at 108.82, Oct 21 low and 108.13, the Sep 28 trend low. On the upside, the contract needs to clear resistance at 117.93 to confirm a resumption of bullish activity.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Sell-Off Exposes Key Support

• RES 4: 113-30 High Oct 4
• RES 3: 113-00 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 112-22+ High Oct 6
• RES 1: 111-03/111-31 20-day EMA / High Oct 27
• PRICE: 109-28 @ 15:37 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 109-12 Low Nov 03
• SUP 2: 108-26+ Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108-06+ Low Oct 2007 (cont)
• SUP 4: 107.06 3.0% 10-dma envelope

Treasuries continue to weaken and remain below last week’s high of 111-31 on Oct 27 - a key short-term resistance. A break of this hurdle would signal scope for an extension higher near-term and expose the 50-day EMA at 112-29. However, today’s extension lower exposes the key support and bear trigger at 108-26+, the Oct 21 low. A break of this support would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Short-Term Trend Conditions Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 3810.00 High Aug 17 and key pivot point
• RES 3: 3753.00 High Aug 19
• RES 2: 3692.00 High Aug 26
• RES 1: 3678.00/79.00 High Sep 13 and key resistance / High Nov 1
• PRICE: 3614.00 @ 05:59 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 3555.00/3511.80 Low Oct 28 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3418.00 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 3352.00 Low Oct 14
• SUP 4: 3251.00/3236.00 Low Oct 13 / 3 and a key support zone

A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact despite the pullback from Tuesday’s high of 3679.00. Recent gains have resulted in a print above resistance at 3678.00, the Sep 13 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and pave the way for gains above the 3700.00 level. The next key resistance is at 3810.00, the Aug 17 high. Firm support is seen at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 3511.80.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Watching Support

• RES 4: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4023.44 61.8% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 3981.25 High Sep 14
• RES 1: 3830.59/3928.00 50-day EMA / High Nov 1
• PRICE: 3746.50 @ 06:59 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 3704.25/3641.50 Low Nov 3 / Low Oct 21
• SUP 2: 3590.50/3502.00 Low Oct 17 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3491.13 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 3453.78 1.618 proj of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing

S&P E-Minis traded lower Thursday, extending the pullback from 3928.00, the Nov 1 high. Despite the latest retracement, a bull cycle remains in play following the recovery from 3502.00, Oct 13 low. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 3928.00, where a break would confirm the bull theme and open 3981.25, Sep 14 high. Key short-term support to watch is 3641.50, the Oct 21 low. A break would strengthen any developing bearish threat.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F3) Pierces Key Resistance

• RES 4: $105.58 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 bear leg
• RES 3: $102.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $99.50 - High Aug 30
• RES 1: $97.06 - 50.0% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• PRICE: $96.85 @ 07:06 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: $92.52/91.46 - 20-day EMA / Low Oct 31 and a key support
• SUP 2: $87.52 Low Oct 18
• SUP 3: $84.67 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally
• SUP 4: $80.94 - Low Sep 26 and key support

Brent futures maintain a bullish tone and the contract is trading higher today. Price has pierced resistance at $96.75, the Oct 10 high and a key short-term resistance. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the current bullish theme and pave the way for a climb towards $99.50, the Aug 30 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $91.46, the Oct 31 low. A break of this level is required to threaten the bull cycle.

WTI TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Extension

• RES 4: $97.38 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 3: $95.55 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $92.34 - High Oct 12 / 10 and key resistance
• RES 1: $90.64 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $90.22 @ 07:16 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: $85.30/81.30 - Low Oct 31 / Low Oct 18 and key support
• SUP 2: $79.63 - 76.4% retracement points of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally
• SUP 3: $78.36 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $75.70 - Low Sep 26 and the bear trigger

WTI futures are trading higher today. The outlook is bullish and the continued recovery from Monday’s low reinforces this theme. The contract has defined a key short-term support at $81.30, the Oct 18 low and has recently cleared resistance at $88.66, the Oct 12 high. The break of this hurdle signals scope for a climb towards $92.34, the Oct 10 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $85.30, the Oct 31 low.

GOLD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $1729.5 - High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $1714.8 - High Oct 7
• RES 2: $1679.1 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1669.5 - High Nov 2
• PRICE: $1647.8 @ 07:22 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: $1615.0 - Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1610.5 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing
• SUP 3: $1600.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $1569.1 - Low Apr 1 2020

A downtrend in Gold remains intact. A bearish theme follows the reversal from $1729.5, Oct 4 high and the subsequent move lower signals the end of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 bull phase. A continuation lower would open key support and the bear trigger at $1615.0, Sep 28 low. A break of this level would resume the downtrend. On the upside, the next firm resistance is at $1679.1, the 50-day EMA. A breach of this EMA would highlight a stronger reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Monitoring Resistance

• RES 4: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 3: $21.242 - High Oct 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $20.499 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - 14 downleg
• RES 1: $20.080 - High Oct 2
• PRICE: $19.761 @ 08:01 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: $18.835/17.967 - Low Nov 3 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 4: $16.473 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 6 - Jul 14 - Aug 10 price swing

The Silver outlook remains bearish and the metal has - so far - failed to hold on to this week’s gains. Resistance has been defined at $20.080, Wednesday’s high, where a break would once again threaten the bearish theme. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the next firm support at $17.967, the Sep 28 low. Clearance of this level would open $17.562, the Sep 1 low and the bear trigger.