MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Remains in Clear ST Downtrend

Price Signal Summary – Gold Remains in Clear ST Downtrend

• S&P E-Minis resumed bearish activity Tuesday and confirmed an extension of the current bear leg. This reinforces bearish conditions and price remains below the 50-day EMA at 4082.37. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bearish following the Aug 26 sharp reversal and resumption of the current bearish cycle. The break lower paves the way for an extension and attention is on 3526.00, a Fibonacci retracement.
• EURUSD is slightly firmer but continues to trade in a range and below 1.0090, Aug 26 high. The downtrend remains intact and moving average studies still highlight a downward path. USDJPY short-term conditions are unchanged and remain bullish. The recent breach of 137.71, Aug 22 high, reinforces the bullish theme. The break confirms a resumption of the current bull cycle and exposes the next key resistance at 139.39, Jul 14 high. A bearish threat in AUDUSD remains present. Tuesday’s intraday rally swiftly reversed into the close and attention is on Monday’s low of 0.6841. A breach of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and confirm a resumption of bear leg that started Aug 11.
• Gold remains in a clear short-term downtrend and Monday’s move lower reinforces a bearish condition. Support at $1727.8, Aug 22 low has been breached to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. WTI futures reversed course Tuesday and the sharp sell-off threatens the recent bullish theme. A strong reversal pattern has appeared on the daily chart - a bearish engulfing candle.
• Bund futures remain in bear mode and price is trading at the recent lows. The contract is also trading below the 50-day EMA - the average marked a key support area and the recent breach strengthened bearish conditions. Gilt futures remain vulnerable and a bearish impulsive run continues to result in fresh lows - the contract traded down again yesterday. Support at 108.94, Aug 24 low, has been breached.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 1.0327 High Aug 12
• RES 3: 1.0220 Channel top drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 2: 1.0193 High Aug 18
• RES 1: 1.0090 High Aug 26 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.0043 @ 06:13 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 0.9982/9883 Low Aug 30 / 1.764 proj of Jun 9-15-27 swing
• SUP 2: 0.9800 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.9785 2.00 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9681 Channel base drawn from the Feb 10 high

EURUSD is slightly firmer but continues to trade in a range and below 1.0090, Aug 26 high. The downtrend remains intact and moving average studies still highlight a downward path. Recent weakness resulted in breach of former key support at 0.9952, Jul 14 low. This confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. The focus is on 0.9883 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term resistance is seen at 1.0090.

GBPUSD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: 1.2056 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2004 Low Aug 5
• RES 2: 1.1901 High Aug 26 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.1783 High Aug 29
• PRICE: 1.1693 @ 06:18 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 1.1622/1600 Low Aug 30 / Round number support
• SUP 2: 1.1503 Low Mar 24 2020
• SUP 3: 1.1447 Low Mar 23 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1412 Low Mar 20 2020 and a major support

GBPUSD traded lower again Tuesday - a bearish theme remains intact. This week’s sell-off has resulted in a break of 1.1718, Aug 23 low, to confirm a resumption of primary downtrend. Note that moving average studies are in a clear bear mode position, highlighting current sentiment. The focus is on 1.1600 next. On the upside last Friday’s 1.1901 high marks the first key short-term resistance.

EURGBP TECHS: Impulsive Rally Extends

• RES 4: 0.8679 High Jul 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8646 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8631 76.4% retracement of the Jun 15 - Aug 2 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8604 High Aug 30
• PRICE: 0.8592 @ 06:32 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 0.8512 High Aug 19 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 0.8470/8408 20-day EMA / Low Aug 23
• SUP 3: 0.8388/40 Low Aug 17 / 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8313 Low Apr 22

EURGBP traded higher Tuesday and the latest rally continues to accelerate. The cross has cleared a number of short-term resistance points recently and yesterday traded above 0.8585, the Jul 21 low. The 0.8600 handle has also been pierced to put prices at the best levels since early July. This strengthens the current bullish outlook and attention is 0.8631, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial support is seen at 0.8512, the Aug 19 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 140.86 1.764 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 3: 140.11 1.618 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 2: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 139.39 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• PRICE: 138.43 @ 06:35 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 137.37 Low Aug 29
• SUP 2: 135.82 Low Aug 23 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 135.06 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 133.91 Low Aug 17

USDJPY short-term conditions are unchanged and remain bullish. The recent breach of 137.71, Aug 22 high, reinforces the bullish theme. The break confirms a resumption of the current bull cycle and exposes the next key resistance at 139.39, Jul 14 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 135.82, the Aug 23 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Tops Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 140.69 High Jul 22
• RES 3: 140.21 76.4% retracement of the Jul 21 - Aug 2 downleg
• RES 2: 140.04 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 139.22 High Aug 29
• PRICE: 139.19 @ 17:14 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 138.93 Low Aug 30
• SUP 2: 135.52/34.95 Low Aug 24 / 16
• SUP 3: 133.40 Low Aug 2 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 132.66 Low May 12 and a key support

EURJPY traded higher again Tuesday. This week’s climb has resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA. The cross has also pierced 138.98, trendline resistance drawn from the Jun 28 high. This represents a key resistance area and a clear break would strengthen bullish conditions and highlight a stronger reversal. A break would open 140.04, 2.0% 10-dma envelope. Initial support is seen at 137.03, the Aug 29 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.7137 High Aug 11
• RES 3: 0.7040 High Aug 16
• RES 2: 0.7009 High Aug 26 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6956 50-day EMA and Tuesday’s high
• PRICE: 0.6893 @ 08:06 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 0.6841 Low Aug 29
• SUP 2: 0.6789 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 11 upleg
• SUP 3: 0.6719 Low Jul 15
• SUP 4: 0.6682 14 and the bear trigger

A bearish threat in AUDUSD remains present. Tuesday’s intraday rally swiftly reversed into the close and attention is on Monday’s low of 0.6841. A breach of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and confirm a resumption of bear leg that started Aug 11. This would pave the way for a move towards 0.6789, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.7009, Aug 26 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Extension

• RES 4: 1.3300 High Nov 4 2020
• RES 3: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3135 High Jul 15
• RES 1: 1.3108 High Aug 30
• PRICE: 1.3082 @ 08:12 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 1.2947 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2895 Low Aug 25 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 1.2828 Low Aug 17
• SUP 4: 1.2770 Low Aug 15

USDCAD traded higher again Tuesday. This confirms an extension of recent gains and maintains the current bullish theme. The latest move higher has resulted in a break above resistance at 1.3063, Aug 23 high. The move strengthens bullish conditions and opens 1.3135 next, the Jul 15 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend. Initial firm support is at 1.2895. A break would alter the picture.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 154.47 High Aug 18
• RES 3: 153.66 High Aug 19
• RES 2: 152.86 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 149.32/151.42 High Aug 30 / High Aug 25
• PRICE: 148.51 @ 05:08 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 147.94/92 61.8% of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 bull leg / Low Aug 29
• SUP 2: 146.50 Low Jun 30
• SUP 3: 144.72 Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 143.05 Low Jun 121

Bund futures remain in bear mode and price is trading at the recent lows. The contract is also trading below the 50-day EMA - the average marked a key support area and the recent breach strengthened bearish conditions. The focus is on the 147.94 next, a Fibonacci retracement that was briefly pierced on Monday. A break would open 146.50, the Jun 30 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 151.42, Aug 25 high.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Bearish Outlook Intact

• RES 4: 126.930 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 126.070 High Aug 18
• RES 2: 125.605 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 123.980/124.930 High Aug 30 / High Aug 25
• PRICE: 123.410 @ 05:06 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 123.010 Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 122.022 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 rally
• SUP 3: 120.990 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 119.940 Low Jun 16

Bobl futures remain bearish and the contract continues to trade at its recent lows. Price has moved further away from the 50-day EMA - the recent break of the average strengthened bearish conditions. The focus is on 123.010 next, the Jun 30 low. Further out, the 120.00 handle beckons. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 124.930, the Aug 25 high. A break of this level is required to ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Heading South

• RES 4: 109.830 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 109.481 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 109.330 High Aug 25 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 108.965 High Aug 30
• PRICE: 108.735 @ 05:25 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 108.650/505 Low Aug 30 / Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: 108.425 Low Jun 28
• SUP 3: 108.336 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg
• SUP 4: 108.105 Low Jun 22

Schatz futures touched a fresh low again yesterday, maintaining the current downward path. The contract remains vulnerable and further weakness is likely. The 50-day EMA has been cleared - this recent breach reinforced bearish conditions. The focus is on 108.505/425, the Jun 29 and 28 lows respectively. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 109.330, the Aug 25 high. A break would ease the current bearish pressure.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 113.32 High Aug 18
• RES 3: 112.43 High Aug 22
• RES 2: 111.54 High Aug 23
• RES 1: 109.40/110.85 High Aug 30 / 26 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 108.87 @ Close Aug 30
• SUP 1: 108.38 Low Aug 30
• SUP 2: 108.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 107.36 1.00 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.54 1.236 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing

Gilt futures remain vulnerable and a bearish impulsive run continues to result in fresh lows - the contract traded down again yesterday. Support at 108.94, Aug 24 low, has been breached. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens the 1080.00 handle next. Firm short-term resistance has been defined at 110.85, the Aug 26 high. A break of this level is required to suggest scope for a stronger correction.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 127.15 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 126.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 123.68/124.51 20- and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 123.16 High Aug 25 and ey near-term resistance
• PRICE: 120.01 @ Close Aug 30
• SUP 1: 119.57 Low Jul 21 and a key support
• SUP 2: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 3: 117.88 Low Jun 17
• SUP 4: 115.72 Low Jun 16

Bearish conditions in BTP futures remain intact - this week's fresh lows reinforce the current bear cycle. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMAs and the move through 124.07 on Aug 19, confirmed a break of trendline support drawn from the Jun 14 low. Sights are on 119.57, the Jul 21 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at 123.16, Aug 25 high. A break would ease the current bearish pressure.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 120-02+ High Aug 15
• RES 3: 119-18 High Aug 17
• RES 2: 118-25+ 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 118-00/17+ High Aug 26 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117-02+ @ 16:47 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 116-24 Low Aug 30
• SUP 2: 116-08 Low Jun 28
• SUP 3: 116-01+ 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Aug 2 bull run
• SUP 4: 114-26 Low Jun 16

The outlook for Treasuries remains bearish and the contract traded lower again Tuesday, slipping further below last week’s low of 117-06 on Aug 24/25. This highlights a resumption of the current bear cycle and opens 116-08 next, the Jun 28 low. Further out, attention is on 116-01+, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance has been defined at 118-00, Friday’s high. The 50-day EMA, at 118-25+ marks a firmer resistance.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 3822/40.00 High Aug 17 / High Jun 6 and key resistance zone
• RES 3: 3782.00 High Aug 18
• RES 2: 3705.00 High Aug 26 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 3621.00 Low Aug 23
• PRICE: 3575.00@ 05:32 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 3526.00 61.8% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 17 rally
• SUP 2: 3500.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 3456.00 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 17 rally
• SUP 4: 3386.00 Low Jul 15

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bearish following the Aug 26 sharp reversal and resumption of the current bearish cycle. The break lower paves the way for an extension and attention is on 3526.00, a Fibonacci retracement. Scope is also seen for a move towards the 3500.00 handle. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 3629.00, the Aug 30 high and a recent breakout level. Firmer resistance is at 3705.00, the Aug 26 high.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Bearish Activity Resumed

• RES 4: 4327.50 High Aug 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 4288.00 High Aug 19
• RES 2: 4217.25 High Aug 26
• RES 1: 4110.75 Low Aug 24
• PRICE: 4008.75 @ 06:46 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 3964.50 Low Aug 30
• SUP 2: 3902.01 61.8% retracement of the Jun 17 - Aug 16 upleg
• SUP 3: 3834.00 Low Jul 19
• SUP 4: 3801.49 76.4% retracement of the Jun 17 - Aug 16 upleg

S&P E-Minis resumed bearish activity Tuesday and confirmed an extension of the current bear leg. This reinforces bearish conditions and price remains below the 50-day EMA at 4082.37. The recent break of this pivot support strengthens bearish conditions and attention is on 3902.01 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 4217.25, the Aug 26 high. A break would ease the current bearish pressure.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V2) Bearish Reversal?

• RES 4: $110.72 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $108.55 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 bear leg
• RES 2: $106.50 - High Jul 29 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $105.48 - High Aug 29
• PRICE: $100.21 @ 07:06 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: $97.55 - Low Aug 30
• SUP 2: $91.22 - Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $90.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $88.31 - Low Mar 9 and a key support

Brent futures reversed course yesterday and the sharp pullback undermines the recent bullish theme. An extension lower would expose key support at $91.22, the Jul 14 low and the bear trigger. Moving average studies continue to highlight a bear cycle, so it is possible that Monday’s high represents the end of a correction between Aug 17 - 29. Key resistance has been defined at $105.48, Aug 29 high, where a break is needed to reinstate a bull theme.

WTI TECHS: (V2) Bearish Engulfing Candle

• RES 4: $108.07 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $105.00 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $99.75 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 1: $97.66 - High Aug 30
• PRICE: $92.40 @ 06:54 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: $90.54 - Low Aug 30
• SUP 2: $85.37 - Low Aug 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $84.10/00 - Low Mar 15 / Round number support
• SUP 4: $81.88 - Low Feb 25

WTI futures reversed course Tuesday and the sharp sell-off threatens the recent bullish theme. A strong reversal pattern has appeared on the daily chart - a bearish engulfing candle. If correct, this pattern suggests potential for a strong sell-off near-term that would expose key support at $91.22, the Jul 14 low. Key resistance has been defined at $97.66, yesterday’s high, where a break is required to resume bullish activity.

GOLD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $1829.8 - 38.2% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jul 21 bear leg
• RES 3: $1807.9 - High Aug 10 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $1773.5 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1765.5 - High Aug 25
• PRICE: $1723.5 @ 07:17 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: $1711.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 21 - Aug 10 upleg
• SUP 2: $1700.0 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $1681.0 - Low Jul 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021

Gold remains in a clear short-term downtrend and Monday’s move lower reinforces a bearish condition. Support at $1727.8, Aug 22 low has been breached to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. The break lower paves the way for weakness towards $1711.0, a Fibonacci retracement and $1700.00 further out. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $1765.53, high Aug 25.

SILVER TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $21.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 2: $20.876 - High Aug 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $19.395/928- 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: $18.431 @ 08:15 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: $18.352 - Low Aug 30
• SUP 2: $18.146/18.000 - Low Jul 14 / Round number support
• SUP 3: $17.312 - 3.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020

The Silver outlook remains bearish - this week’s sell-off confirms a resumption of the bear leg that started Aug 15. Scope is seen for an extension towards $18.146, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger where a break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $19.395, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level is required to ease the current bearish pressure.