MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Resumes Its Uptrend

Price Signal Summary - Gold Clears Key Resistance And Resumes Its Uptrend

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis maintains a bullish tone. Price has recently breached resistance at 4119.50, reinforcing bullish conditions. The move higher has also resulted in a break of 4148.48, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg. This signals scope for an extension towards 4205.50, the Feb 16 high ahead of 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and a key medium-term resistance. Firm support lies at 4036.58, the 50-day EMA. {EU} EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a firmer tone. The contract traded higher last week and is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Price has pierced resistance at 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a key hurdle for bulls. A clear break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and open 4300.00 next. Initial firm support lies at 4166.50, the 20-day EMA.
• In FX, EURUSD maintains a firmer tone. Price has breached resistance at 1.0930, the Mar 23 high. This level marked a key short-term hurdle for bulls and the clear break reinstates the recent bull theme and opens 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.0791 (20-day EMA) and 1.0723 (50-day EMA). A move through this support zone would be bearish. GBPUSD traded higher Tuesday. The pair breached a key resistance at 1.2448, the Jan 23 high and the top of a broad range, price has been trading inside since mid-December last year. The breach represents an important short and medium-term break and signals the next stage of the uptrend that started on Sep 26 last year. The focus is on a climb towards 1.2584 next, the top of a MA envelope study. Support to watch lies at 1.2260, the 20-day EMA. The trend direction in USDJPY remains down and this week’s move lower reinforces this theme. Resistance at the 50-day EMA has been tested, it intersects at 133.24 and represents a key short-term hurdle for bulls. A clear break would alter the picture and suggest scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 134.75, 61.8% of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg. The bear trigger is at 129.64, Mar 24 low. A break would resume the downtrend.
• On the commodity front, the trend condition in Gold remains bullish and Tuesday’s resumption of the uptrend reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal has cleared resistance at 2009.7, the Mar 20 high, to post fresh YTD highs and signal scope for a climb towards $2034.0 next, the 2.00 projection of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 rally from Feb 28. On the downside, key support has been defined at $1918.3, the Mar 17 low - a break would highlight a potential reversal. In the Oil space, WTI futures remain in a bull cycle and Monday’s gap higher strengthens this current condition. The contract has touched a high of $81.81, above key resistance at $81.04, the Mar 7 high. A clear break of $81.04 would signal scope for a continuation higher and open $83.04, the Jan 23 high. Key support is seen at $75.72, the Mar 31 high and the gap low on the daily chart. A pullback, if seen, would be considered corrective.
• In the FI space, Despite recent gains, Bund futures maintain a softer tone following last week’s move lower. Price has traded below the 20-day EMA which intersects at 135.72. It represents an important pivot level and a clear break would strengthen a bearish threat. 134.80, the Mar 22 low, has also been tested. A breach of this level would open 134.15, 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally. Initial resistance is at 136.77, the Mar 30 high. Gilt futures traded higher Monday and price remains above 102.74, the Mar 31 low. However, a short-term bearish threat is present - last week’s move down resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.82. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a continuation lower towards 102.31 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is seen at 105.04, 50.0% of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Clears Resistance At 1.0930

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 3: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022
• RES 2: 1.1033 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.0973 High Apr 4
• PRICE: 1.0955 @ 05:41 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 1.0883/1.0788 Low Apr 4 / 33
• SUP 2: 1.0791 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0723 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0631 Low Mar 20

EURUSD maintains a firmer tone and the pair traded higher Tuesday. Price has breached resistance at 1.0930, the Mar 23 high. This level marked a key short-term hurdle for bulls and the clear break reinstates the recent bull theme and signals scope for 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.0791 (20-day EMA) and 1.0723 (50-day EMA). A move through this support zone would be bearish.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Range Breakout

• RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27 2022
• RES 3: 1.2599 High Jun 7 2022
• RES 2: 1.2584 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.2525 High Apr 4
• PRICE: 1.2484 @ 06:10 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 1.2395 Low Apr 4
• SUP 2: 1.2275/2260 Low Apr 3 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2191 Low Mar 24
• SUP 4: 1.2171 50-day EMA

GBPUSD traded higher Tuesday. The pair breached a key resistance at 1.2448, the Jan 23 high and the top of a broad range, price has been trading inside since mid-December last year. The breach represents an important short and medium-term break and signals the next stage of the uptrend that started on Sep 26 last year. The focus is on a climb towards 1.2584 next, the top of a MA envelope study. Support to watch lies at 1.2260, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Break Lower Exposes Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 0.8925 High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8866/73 High Mar 23 / Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high
• RES 1: 0.8788/0.8829 High Apr 4 / High Mar 30
• PRICE: 0.8774 @ 06:22 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 0.8729 Low Apr 4
• SUP 2: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.8691 Low Dec 19

EURGBP traded lower Tuesday. The move down refocuses attention on support at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. A break of this level would cancel a recent bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback, exposing 0.8691, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 0.8829, the Mar 30 high where a break is required to reinstate any developing bearish threat.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 135.96 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 3: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 2: 134.75 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 1: 133.77 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• PRICE: 131.71 @ 06:31 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 130.76 Low Mar 29
• SUP 2: 129.64 Low Mar 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 128.09 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and key support

The trend direction in USDJPY remains down and this week’s move lower reinforces this theme. Resistance at the 50-day EMA has been tested, it intersects at 133.24 and represents a key S/T hurdle for bulls. A clear break would alter the picture and suggest scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 133.77, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, the bear trigger is at 129.64, Mar 24 low. A break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 3: 147.10 High Nov 9 2022
• RES 2: 146.73 High Dec 15
• RES 1: 145.80 76.4% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 3 downleg
• PRICE: 144.13 @ 07:50 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 143.63 Low Mar 4
• SUP 2: 142.84 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 141.79 Low Mar 29
• SUP 4: 141.05 Low Mar 28

EURJPY is consolidating closer to its recent highs. The cross has recently pierced key resistance at 145.57, the Mar 2 high. A clear break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and pave the way for gains above 146.00, towards 146.73, the Dec 15 high. Momentum studies remain in a bull-mode condition highlighting a likely uptrend. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 142.84, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Short-Term Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 0.6793 High Apr 4
• PRICE: 0.6728 @ 07:08 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 0.6651/25 Low Apr 3 / Low Mar 24 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 0.6590 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 0.6565/47 Low Mar 10 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

AUDUSD traded sharply higher Monday and in the process breached resistance at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 0.6752 and the break highlights a stronger short-term bullish condition. A continuation higher would open 0.6824, the Feb 24 high. On the downside, key short-term support to watch lies at 0.6625, the Mar 24 low. A break of this level would instead signal a bearish reversal.

USDCAD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 1.3745 High Mar 27
• RES 3: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 2: 1.3584/3618 50- and 20-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.3537 High Ar 3
• PRICE: 1.3454 @ 07:14 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 1.3404 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally
• SUP 2: 1.3358 Low Feb 16
• SUP 3: 1.3334 Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: 1.3262 Low Feb 2 and a key support

USDCAD remains bearish and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Last week’s bearish extension resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and 1.3562, 50% of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally. The move lower signals scope for an extension and note that 1.3491 was cleared on Monday, the 61.8% retracement. The break opens 1.3404, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3537, Monday’s high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 137.85/139.54 High Mar 27 / 24
• RES 1: 136.77 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 136.45 @ 05:18 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 134.70 Low Mar 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 134.15 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 133.33 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 132.70 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally

Despite recent gains, Bund futures maintain a softer tone following last week’s move lower. Price has traded below the 20-day EMA which intersects at 135.72. It represents an important pivot level and a clear break would strengthen a bearish threat. 134.80, the Mar 22 low, has also been tested. A breach of this level would open 134.15, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 136.77, the Mar 30 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Support Appears Exposed

• RES 4: 121.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 120.610 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 119.170/120.130 High Mar 27 / 24
• RES 1: 118.640 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 118.370 @ 05:22 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 117.200 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 116.982 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 116.370 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 116.125 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally

Bobl futures have recovered from recent lows. Despite the bounce, the contract maintains a softer tone. Price has recently traded below support at the 20-day EMA - at 117.859. Additionally, support at 117.300, the Mar 22 low, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and open 116.982, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 118.640, the Mar 30 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 107.110 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 106.955 High Mar 20 and key resistance
• RES 2: 106.315/695 High Mar 27 / 24
• RES 1: 106.095 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 105.890 @ 05:28 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 105.465 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 105.336 61.8% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally

Schatz futures have recovered from recent lows. Last week’s move lower resulted in a breach of key support at 105.731, the 20-day EMA. Price has also traded through support at 105.575, the Mar 22 low, where a clear break would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper pullback. This would open 105.336, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is seen at 106.095, the Mar 30 high.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Bear Threat Remains Present Despite Bounce

• RES 4: 107.33 High Mar 20
• RES 3: 106.25 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• RES 2: 105.62 High Mar 27
• RES 1: 105.04 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• PRICE: 104.27 @ Close Apr 4
• SUP 1: 103.82/102.74 20-day EMA / Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 102.31 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally
• SUP 3: 102.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 101.12 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally

Gilt futures traded higher Monday and price remains above last week’s low of 102.74 (Mar 31). However, a short-term bearish threat is present - last week’s move down resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.82. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a continuation lower towards 102.31 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 105.04, a Fibonacci retracement.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Testing Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.08 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 115.34 @ Close Apr 4
• SUP 1: 114.04 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 113.71 50.0% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 113.22 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 112.89 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally

BTP futures continue to trade below 117.17, the Mar 24 high. The short-term outlook appears bullish and the recent pullback corrective. However, price has recently traded through support at 114.87, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would instead signal scope for a continuation lower and open 113.71, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 116.08, the Mar 30 high.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: Recovery Extends

• RES 4: 117-29+ High Aug 26 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 117-14+ High Aug 29 / 30 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 117-01+ High Mar 24 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 116-09 High Apr 4
• PRICE: 116-03 @ 19:23 BST Apr 4
• SUP 1: 115-02+ Low Apr 4
• SUP 2: 114-13/07 20-day EMA / Low Mar 29 and 30
• SUP 3: 113-29+ 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 113-26 Low Mar 22

Treasury futures started the week on a firmer note and have traded higher again today, as the contract extends the recovery from last week’s low. The strong bounce undermines recent bearish signals and price has pierced resistance at 116-06+, the Mar 27 high. A continuation higher would signal scope for gains towards 117-01+, the Mar 24 high and a key short-term resistance. Key support has been defined at 114-07, the Mar 29 and 30 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 4381.50 High Jan 5
• RES 3: 4324.50 High Jan 13 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4293.00 High Apr 4
• PRICE: 4254.00 @ 06:28 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 4221.00 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 4166.50 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4124.60 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4034.00 Low Mar 24

Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a firmer tone. The contract traded higher last week and is holding on to its latest gain. Price has pierced resistance at 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a key hurdle for bulls. A clear break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and open 4300.00 next. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a broader uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 4166.50, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 2: 4205.50 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 4171.75 High Apr 4
• PRICE: 4128.50 @ 06:52 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 4078.00 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 4036.58 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3980.75 Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: 3937.00 Low Mar 24

S&P E-minis maintains a bullish tone. Price has recently breached resistance at 4119.50, reinforcing bullish conditions. The move higher has also resulted in a break of 4148.48, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg. This signals scope for an extension towards 4205.50, the Feb 16 high ahead of 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and a key medium-term resistance. Firm support lies at 4036.58, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M3) Bullish Condition Remains Intact

• RES 4: $90.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $88.35 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $87.87 - High Jan 27
• RES 1: $86.44 - High Apr 3
• PRICE: $85.37 @ 06:48 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: $82.57 - 23.6% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 3 uptrend
• SUP 2: $79.95 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $78.25 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 3 uptrend
• SUP 4: $76.32 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 3 uptrend

Brent futures remain firm following Monday’s gap higher and print above resistance at $86.17, the Mar 7 high. The move confirms an extension of the recent recovery that started from the Mar 20 low. A clear break of $86.17 would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a climb towards $88.35, the Jan 23 high. A large gap has appeared on the daily chart - key support lies at $79.95, the Mar 31 high and the gap low.

WTI TECHS: (K3) Heading North

• RES 4: $87.48 - High Nov 7 2022
• RES 3: $85.01 - High Nov 14
• RES 2: $83.04 - High Jan 23 and key resistance
• RES 1: $81.81 - High Apr 4
• PRICE: $80.96 @ 07:00 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: $77.60 - 23.6% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 3 rally
• SUP 2: $75.72 - High Mar 31 and a gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $72.19 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $70.98 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 3 rally

WTI futures remain in a bull cycle and Monday’s gap higher strengthens this current condition. The contract has touched a high of $81.81, above key resistance at $81.04, the Mar 7 high. A clear break of $81.04 would signal scope for a continuation higher and open $83.04, the Jan 23 high. Key support is seen at $75.72, the Mar 31 high and the gap low on the daily chart. A pullback, if seen, would be considered corrective.

GOLD TECHS: Fresh YTD Highs As Uptrend Resumes

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $2034.0 - 2.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 rally from Feb 28
• RES 1: $2028.4 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $2023.2 @ 10:07 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: $1977.0/1948.8 - Low Apr 4 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1918.3 - Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: $1904.6 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and Tuesday’s resumption of the uptrend reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal has cleared resistance at 2009.7, the Mar 20 high, to post fresh YTD highs and signal scope for a climb towards $2034.0 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key support has been defined at $1918.3, the Mar 17 low - a break would highlight a potential reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.002 - High Apr 19 2022
• RES 2: $25.293 - High Apr 20 2022
• RES 1: $25.137 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $23.030 @ 07:25 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: $23.826 - Low Apr 4
• SUP 2: $22.982 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $22.4951 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $21.474 - Low Mar 16

Silver remains firm and Tuesday’s strong gains reinforce current conditions. The break of resistance at $24.637, the Feb 2 high confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started early September 2022. This signals scope for a climb towards $25.293 next, the Apr 20 2022 high. On the downside, a key support is seen at $22.982, the 20-day EMA. The trend is overbought, a pullback would be considered corrective.