MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Surges Results in Fresh Record Highs

Price Signal Summary – Gold Surges Results in Fresh Record Highs

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish, however, the recent move lower highlights a corrective cycle that remains in play for now, and last week's sell-off reinforces this condition. The contract has breached bull channel support drawn from the Jan 17 low and cleared the 20-day EMA. The primary uptrend in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective and is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. The break of support around the 20-day EMA - at 4968.70 - suggests potential for a deeper retracement near-term.
• Bullish conditions in USDJPY remain intact and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. A flag formation on the daily chart - a bullish pattern, continues to reinforce the uptrend and MA studies are in a bull-mode position too. AUDUSD is holding on to its recent gains. The recent bounce resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA. This marks a bullish development and suggests the recent bout of weakness between Mar 8 - Apr 1 has been a correction. A continuation higher would open 0.6635. EURUSD continues to trade closer to last week’s 1.0877 high (Apr 4). The break of resistance at 1.0864, the Mar 26 high, highlights a positive development for bulls and a resumption of gains would open 1.0943.
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the yellow metal traded higher Monday, starting the week on a bullish note. This maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition. A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and last week’s rally reinforces current conditions, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. The contract has traded through $84.87, the Sep 15 ‘23 high, paving the way for a climb towards the $90.00 handle further out.
• Bund futures traded lower Monday and a bearish threat remains present. A continuation would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started last December and open 130.60. A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present and the contract traded lower Monday. Sights are on the key short-term support at 98.05, the Mar 15 low. It was pierced yesterday, a clear break would strengthen a bearish theme and signal scope for an extension towards 97.67.

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Short-Term Outlook

• RES 4: 1.0981 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.0943 High Mar 21
• RES 2: 1.0883 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 2 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0877 High Apr 04
• PRICE: 1.0858 @ 05:36 BST Apr 9
• SUP 1: 1.0791/25 Low Apr 5 / 2
• SUP 2: 1.0695 Low Feb 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0656 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 1.0611 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull rally

EURUSD continues to trade closer to last week’s 1.0877 high (Apr 4). The break of resistance at 1.0864, the Mar 26 high, highlights a positive development for bulls and a resumption of gains would open 1.0943, the Mar 21 high. On the downside, a reversal would instead refocus attention on 1.0725, the Apr 2 low ahead of the key support at 1.0695, the Feb 14 low and bear trigger. Initial support lies at 1.0791, Friday’s low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Testing Resistance

• RES 4: 1.2803 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 1.2759 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 1 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2717 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2684 High Apr 04
• PRICE: 1.2658 @ 05:47 BST Apr 09
• SUP 1: 1.2540 Low Apr 1 / 2
• SUP 2: 1.2519 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2465 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2446 Low Nov 20 ‘23

A bearish threat in GBPUSD remains present despite the latest recovery. Resistance to watch is 1.2664, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this EMA would improve short-term conditions and signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, key support to watch lies at 1.2519, the Feb 5 low. A resumption of weakness and a clear break of this level would strengthen the bearish theme and open 1.2465, a Fibonacci retracement.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Short-Term Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8678 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.8607 23.6% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 1: 0.8586/8602 High Apr 05 / High Mar 22
• PRICE: 0.8577 @ 06:04 BST Apr 9
• SUP 1: 0.8530/8504 Low Mar 21 / 29 and Low Mar 8
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

A short-term bull cycle in EURGBP remains intact and sights are on key resistance at 0.8602, Mar 22 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the recovery that started Feb 14 and signal scope for a climb towards 0.8678, a Fibonacci retracement point. Support to watch lies at 0.8530, the Mar 21 / 29 low. A break would instead be seen as a bearish development and expose the bear trigger at 0.8493, Aug 23 ‘23 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 153.39 1.382 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 3: 153.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 152.66 1.236 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 1: 151.97 High Mar 27
• PRICE: 151.89 @ 06:39 BST Apr 9
• SUP 1: 150.93/149.80 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 147.44 Low Mar 14
• SUP 3: 146.49 Low Mar 08 / 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 145.90 Low Feb 1

Bullish conditions in USDJPY remain intact and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. A flag formation on the daily chart - a bullish pattern, continues to reinforce the uptrend and MA studies are in a bull-mode position too. A clear break of the major 151.91/95 hurdle, the Nov 13 ‘23 and Oct 1 ‘22 highs respectively, would resume the uptrend and open 152.66, a Fibonacci projection. Support is 150.93, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 167.10 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 166.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 165.35 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 164.98 Intraday high
• PRICE: 164.91 @ 06:55 BST Apr 09
• SUP 1: 163.52/162.70 20-day EMA / Trendline drawn from Dec 7 low
• SUP 2: 162.43 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 161.07 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 160.22 Low Mar 11

The trend outlook EURJPY remains bullish. The cross continues to trade above key short-term support at 162.70 - the trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. A clear break of this line is required to highlight a short-term reversal. This would also mark a break of the 50-day EMA, at 162.43. For bulls, attention is on key resistance at 165.35, the Mar 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Short-Term Trend Signal Points North

• RES 4: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 3: 0.6708 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
• RES 2: 0.6668 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.6635 High Mar 21
• PRICE: 0.6603 @ 07:30 GMT Apr 09
• SUP 1: 0.6503 Low Apr 3
• SUP 2: 0.6478 Low Mar 5
• SUP 3: 0.6443 Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg

AUDUSD is holding on to its recent gains. The recent bounce resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA. This marks a bullish development and suggests the recent bout of weakness between Mar 8 - Apr 1 has been a correction. A continuation higher would open 0.6635, Mar 21 high. For bears, a reversal lower and a break of support at 0.6478, Mar 5 low, would instead reinstate a bearish theme. This would open the bear trigger at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 1.3855 High Nov 10 2023
• RES 3: 1.3765 High Nov 22 2023
• RES 2: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3661 High Nov 27 2023
• PRICE: 1.3580 @ 08:05 BST Apr 9
• SUP 1: 1.3478/20 Low Apr 4 / Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5

A bull cycle in USDCAD remains in play and Friday’s high print reinforces this condition. The pair has pierced an important resistance and congestion at 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started late December last year. 1.3623, 61.8% of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg, has also been tested, a break would open 1.3661, the Nov 27 ‘23 high. 1.3478 is first support, the Apr 4 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 134.48 High Feb 5
• RES 3: 134.15 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 133.48/69 High Mar 27 / 12
• RES 1: 132.85 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 131.95 @ 05:14 GMT Apr 9
• SUP 1: 131.54 Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: 131.23 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 130.60 1.50 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 29 - Mar 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support

Bund futures traded lower Monday and a bearish threat remains present. A continuation would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started last December and open 130.60, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a break of 133.48, the Mar 27 high, is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Initial resistance is at 132.85, the 50-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 119.050 High Feb 8
• RES 2: 118.790 High Feb 15 and Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 118.460 High Mar 12
• RES 1: 118.310 High Mar 27
• PRICE: 117.540 @ 05:23 GMT Apr 9
• SUP 1: 117.340 Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: 117.200 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 116.740 High Mar 5 (cont)

Bobl futures traded lower Monday and the contract remains below its recent highs. Key support to watch lies at 117.200, the Feb 29 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the downtrend that started early December last year. The recovery between Mar 18 - 27, appears to be a correction. A break of 118.310, the Mar 27 high, would expose key resistance at 118.790, the Feb 15 / Mar 8 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 106.040 Low Feb 15
• RES 3: 106.010 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 105.790/875 High Mar 25 / 12
• RES 1: 105.680 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 105.515 @ 05:43 GMT Apr 9
• SUP 1: 105.490 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 105.430 High Feb 20 (cont)
• SUP 3: 105.310 High Feb 26 (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.295 1.00 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing

A downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact. Attention is on key support at 105.490, the Feb 29 low and bear trigger. A clear break of this level would resume the downtrend that started in December last year and open 105.430, the Feb 20 high (cont). Initial firm resistance is at 105.790, the Mar 25 high. A break would highlight scope for a stronger correction and expose key resistance at 106.010, the Mar 8 high. A break of this level would be bullish.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 100.73 1.764 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 3: 100.50 1.618 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 2: 100.05/100.37 High Mar 22 / 12 and a key S/T resistance
• RES 1: 99.37 High Apr 4
• PRICE: 98.28 @ Close Apr 8
• SUP 1: 98.16/97.96 Low Apr 3 / 8
• SUP 2: 97.67 76.4% retracement of the Feb 29 - Mar 12 rally
• SUP 3: 97.42 Low Mar 1
• SUP 4: 96.83 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger

A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present and the contract traded lower Monday. Sights are on the key short-term support at 98.05, the Mar 15 low. It was pierced yesterday, a clear break would strengthen a bearish theme and signal scope for an extension towards 97.67, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 100.37, Mar 12 high. Initial resistance is 99.37, the Apr 4 high.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Bearish Price Structure

• RES 4: 121.19 2.382 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 119.55/120.28 High Mar 27 / 14
• RES 1: 118.75 High Apr 5
• PRICE: 117.79 @ Close Apr 8
• SUP 1: 117.10 Low Apr 3
• SUP 2: 116.52 Low Feb 29
• SUP 3: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.00 Round number support

Price action last week in BTP futures resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and a breach of 118.33, the Mar 15 low. The break highlights a bearish threat. A continuation lower would open 116.52, the Feb 29 low and 116.15, the Feb 22 low and the key support. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 119.55, the Mar 27 high, would reinstate a bull cycle. Gains are considered corrective - for now.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 5170.50 1.50 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 5100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5043.00/79.00 High Apr 4 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4993.00 @ 06:10 GMT Apr 9
• SUP 1: 4933.00 Low Apr 5
• SUP 2: 4923.00 Low Mar 19
• SUP 3: 4872.00/4826.00 Low Mar 11 / 5
• SUP 4: 4771.00 Low Feb 22

The primary uptrend in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective and is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. The break of support around the 20-day EMA - at 4968.70 - suggests potential for a deeper retracement near-term. The next support lies at 4923.00, the Mar 19 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 5079.00, Apr 2 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Corrective Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 5434.54 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 17 low
• RES 3: 5428.25 1.00 proj of the Oct 27 - Dec 28 - May 1 price swing
• RES 2: 5400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5308.50/33.50 High Apr 4 / 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 5256.25 @ 06:58 GMT Apr 9
• SUP 1: 5191.50 Low Apr 5
• SUP 2: 5148.94 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 5100.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 5018.00 Low Feb 21

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish, however, the recent move lower highlights a corrective cycle that remains in play for now, and last week's sell-off reinforces this condition. The contract has breached bull channel support drawn from the Jan 17 low, and cleared the 20-day EMA. This has exposed the 50-day EMA, at 5148.94 and the next important support. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 5333.50, the Apr 1 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $96.16 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $94.94 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $92.96 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $91.91 - High Apr 5
• PRICE: $90.44 @ 07:03 GMT Apr 10
• SUP 1: $86.82 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $83.97 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $79.70 - Low Feb 26
• SUP 4: $76.18 - Low Feb 5 and key S/T support

A bull cycle in Brent futures remains in play and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. The recent breach of resistance at $88.51, the Sep 15 ‘23 high, reinforced bullish conditions and this has led to a break of the psychological $90.00 handle. Sights are on $92.96, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear uptrend. Initial support is $86.82, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (K4) Northbound

• RES 4: $91.15 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $89.08 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $87.63 - High Apr 5
• PRICE: $86.54 @ 07:15 GMT Apr 9
• SUP 1: $82.80 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $79.86/76.43 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 11
• SUP 3: $71.52 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $70.02 - Low Jan 3

A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and last week’s rally reinforces current conditions, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. The contract has traded through $84.87, the Sep 15 ‘23 high, paving the way for a climb towards the $90.00 handle further out. The next objective is $89.08, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $82.80, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: $2429.0 - 2.50 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2405.5 - 2.382 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2376.5 - 2.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2354.0 - High Apr 8
• PRICE: $2345.1 @ 07:22 GMT Apr 9
• SUP 1: $2267.9/2222.4 - Low Apr 5 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $2145.5 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $2088.5 - High Dec 28

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the yellow metal traded higher Monday, starting the week on a bullish note. This maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting positive market sentiment. The $2300.0 handle has been pierced. The next objective is $2376.5, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at $2222.4, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Impulsive Bull Cycle

• RES 4: $30.100 - Feb 2021 high and a key resistance
• RES 3: $29.052 - 2.382 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $28.613 - 2.236 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $28.139 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $27.891 @ 08:10 GMT Apr 9
• SUP 1: $25.556 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $24.491/328 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 27
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

Silver rallied sharply higher this week and has started this week on a firm note. The latest rally has resulted in a clear break of 25.761, the Dec 4 high, strengthening bullish conditions. Note that key resistance at $26.135, May 5 ‘23 high, has also been cleared highlighting an important technical break. Sights are on $28.613 a Fibonacci projection point. Key support lies at $24.328, the Mar 27 low.