MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Touches New Cycle High

Price Signal Summary - Gold Touches New Cycle High

• S&P E-Minis traded higher Monday and breached resistance at 4035.25, the Jan 17 high. The break cancels a recent bearish threat and resumes short-term bullish conditions. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode condition and this reinforces current trend conditions. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower last Thursday but prices have since recovered. The trend outlook is bullish, however, the cycle is overbought and this warns of the potential for a short-term pullback.
• GBPUSD bullish conditions remain intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. The pair on Monday, pierced resistance at 1.2446, the Dec 14 high. The move higher reinforces bullish conditions and a clear break of 1.2446 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started late September 2022. USDJPY trend conditions remain bearish. The pair is trading below last week’s high of 131.58 and the 20-day EMA, at 130.98. Recent activity appears to be a bear flag formation, reinforcing the downtrend. AUDUSD traded higher Monday but remains below last Wednesday’s high of 0.7063. Recent short-term weakness is considered corrective and the 3-month uptrend remains intact.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal has traded to a fresh cycle high today. This confirms an extension on the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. WTI futures traded higher Monday and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Key short-term resistance is located at $82.66, the Jan 18 high. Clearance of this hurdle would reinstate the recent bullish theme and expose $83.14, the Dec 1 high and $85.33, a Fibonacci retracement.
• Bund futures remain in an uptrend despite the latest pullback - the move lower is considered corrective and the contract remains above support. Last week’s trend highs confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle and this maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Gilt futures traded lower Monday, but remain in an uptrend. The recent bullish extension confirmed a resumption of the short-term uptrend and resulted in a break of 105.20, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 24 - Dec 28 bear leg.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.1054 High Apr 4 2022
• RES 3: 1.1022 3.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - Oct 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0954 High Apr 11, 2022
• RES 1: 1.0927 High Jan 23
• PRICE: 1.0879 @ 05:35 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 1.0767/40 Low Jan 18 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0634 Low Jan 9
• SUP 3: 1.0569/1.0484 50-day EMA / Low Jan 6
• SUP 4: 1.0410 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band

EURUSD remains in an uptrend and the pair traded slightly higher Monday to confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. The trend extension maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies continue to highlight bullish market sentiment. The focus is on 1.0954, the Apr 11 2022 high. Initial firm support is at 1.0740, the 20-day EMA. A break of the average would signal the start of a correction.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.2599 High Jun 7
• RES 3: 1.2558 High Jub 9, 2022
• RES 2: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2448 High Jan 23
• PRICE: 1.2390 @ 06:14 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 1.2313 Low Jan 19
• SUP 2: 1.2215/2083 20-day EMA / Low Jan 9
• SUP 3: 1.2071 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD bullish conditions remain intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. The pair on Monday, pierced resistance at 1.2446, the Dec 14 high. The move higher reinforces bullish conditions and a clear break of 1.2446 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started late September 2022. This would open 1.2506, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is seen at 1.2215, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.8992 61.8% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8907 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8815/97 High Jan 23 / 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8777 @ 06:43 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 0.8722 Low Jan 19
• SUP 2: 0.8691 Low Dec 19
• SUP 3: 0.8630 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Jan 13 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.8593 Low Dec 15

EURGBP is consolidating and trading closer to its recent lows. A bearish threat remains present following last week’s move lower. The cross has traded below the 50-day EMA, at 0.8756. The average represents a key support and a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 0.8691 initially, Dec 19 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8897, Jan 13 high. A break would resume bullish activity.

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 134.77/81 High Jan 6 / 23.6% Oct - Jan downleg
• RES 3: 134.28 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 132.87 High Jan 11
• RES 1: 130.98/58 20-day EMA / High Jan 18
• PRICE: 130.11 @ 06:47 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.81 1.382 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 126.36 Low May 24 and a key support
• SUP 4: 125.49 1.50 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing

USDJPY trend conditions remain bearish. The pair is trading below last week’s high of 131.58 and the 20-day EMA, at 130.98. Recent activity appears to be a bear flag formation, reinforcing the downtrend. A break lower would open 126.81, a Fibonacci projection - the bear trigger is 127.23, the Jan 16 low. On the upside, clearance of 131.58, the Jan 18 high, would be a bullish development and signal scope for a stronger correction.

EURJPY TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 144.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 143.16 61.8% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 142.86/94 High Jan 11 / High Dec 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 142.08 High Jan 24
• PRICE: 141.68 @ 06:52 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 140.47/137.92 Low Jan 23 / Low Jan 19
• SUP 2: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 137.03 Low Aug 29
• SUP 4: 136.02 Low Aug 25

EURJPY traded firmer Monday as the cross extended the bounce from last week’s low of 137.92 on Jan 19. The 50-day EMA, at 141.78, has been pierced. A clear break of the EMA would expose key short-term resistance at 142.86, the Jan 11 high. The broader trend direction is down. A reversal would again refocus attention on the bear trigger at 137.39, the Jan 3 low. Clearance of this level resumes the downtrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence Intact

• RES 4: 0.7200 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 0.7137 High Aug 11
• RES 2: 0.7063 High Jan 18
• RES 1: 0.7063 High Jan 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.7037@ 07:55 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 0.6891 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6792 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6688 Low Jan 3 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.6650 Low Dec 22

AUDUSD traded higher Monday but remains below last Wednesday’s high of 0.7063. Recent short-term weakness is considered corrective and the 3-month uptrend remains intact. Support to watch lies at 0.6891, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback and potentially open 0.6792, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of resistance at 0.7063 would confirm a resumption of recent bullish activity.

USDCAD TECHS: Appears Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
• RES 1: 1.3460/3521 20-day EMA / High Jan 19
• PRICE: 1.3357 @ 08:03 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 1.3342 Low Jan 23
• SUP 2: 1.3317 Low Nov 24 / 25
• SUP 3: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD is trading closer to its recent lows. A bearish threat remains present following the pullback from 1.3521 last week, the Jan 19 high. A continuation lower would expose support at 1.3322, the Jan 13 low, where a break would signal scope for an extension towards 1.3226, the Nov 13 low and a bear trigger. On the upside, the price needs to break above 1.3521 to signal a reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 142.91 High Dec 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: 142.55 High Dec 8
• RES 2: 141.70 High Dec 13
• RES 1: 139.55/140.73 High Jan 20 / 19 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 137.75 @ 04:59 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 137.53 Low Jan 16 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: 136.46 Low Jan 11
• SUP 3: 136.04 Low Jan 10
• SUP 4: 135.71 61.8% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run

Bund futures remain in an uptrend despite the latest pullback - the move lower is considered corrective and the contract remains above support. Last week’s trend highs confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle and this maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Potential is seen for a climb towards 141.70, the Dec 13 high. Initial firm support is at 137.53, the Jan 16 low. A break would threaten the bullish theme.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Testing Support

• RES 4: 119.490 High Dec 13
• RES 3: 119.310 High Dec 14
• RES 2: 119.086 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 1: 118.240/880 High Jan 20 / 19 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 117.530 @ 05:13 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 117.510 Low Jan 23 and intraday low
• SUP 2: 117.170 Low Jan 11
• SUP 3: 116.950 Low Jan 10
• SUP 4: 116.740 Low Jan 6

Bobl futures remain in a S/T corrective cycle and the contract has tested support at 117.560, Jan 16 low. The primary trend condition remains bullish. Last week’s climb reinforces a positive outlook and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A resumption of gains would open 119.086, a Fibonacci retracement level. A clear break of 117.560 support would undermine the bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 106.517 76.4% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.370 Low Dec 12
• RES 2: 106.296 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 1: 105.955/106.155 High Jan 20 / 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 105.780 @ 05:22 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 105.760 Low Jan 23
• SUP 2: 105.735 Low Jan 16 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 105.375 Low Jan 11
• SUP 4: 105.625 Low Jan 10

Schatz futures trend conditions remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Last week’s extension reinforced a bullish theme and signals potential for a climb towards 106.296, 61.8% of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg. On the downside, the firm support to watch lies at 105.735, the Jan 16 low. A break would alter the picture and instead signal potential for a deeper retracement.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 107.06 High Nov 24 and key resistance
• RES 3: 106.18 High Dec 12
• RES 2: 106.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 105.71 High Jan 18
• PRICE: 104.24 @ Close Jan 23
• SUP 1: 103.40 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 103.21/102.78 Low Jan 17 and key S/T support / High Jan 6
• SUP 3: 102.19/101.40 Low Jan 11 / 10
• SUP 4: 99.97 Low Jan 3

Gilt futures traded lower Monday, but remain in an uptrend. The recent bullish extension confirmed a resumption of the short-term uptrend and resulted in a break of 105.20, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 24 - Dec 28 bear leg. This paves the way for gains towards 107.06, the Nov 24 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at 103.21, the Jan 17 low. A break would threaten the recent recovery.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 120.73 0.764 proj of the Dec 30 - Jan 12 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 120.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 118.96 High Dec 7 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 117.53/118.56 High Jan 20 / 19
• PRICE: 115.36 @ Close Jan 23
• SUP 1: 114.88 Low Jan 121
• SUP 2: 114.59/46 20-day EMA / Low Jan 16
• SUP 3: 113.50 Low Nov 11
• SUP 4: 111.59 Low Jan 6

The current bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Last week’s gains reinforce the short-term bullish condition and scope is seen for a test of key resistance at 118.96, the Dec 7 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the case for bulls. On the downside, key short-term support to watch has been defined at 114.46, the Jan 16 low. A break would alter the picture.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Monitoring The Overbought Trend Condition

• RES 4: 4269.50 2.236 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 3: 4230.50 High Feb 10, 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4215.00 2.00 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 1: 4206.00 High Jan 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4173.00 @ 05:50 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 4057.20 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3940.10 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3720.00 Low Nov 10

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower last Thursday but prices have since recovered. The trend outlook is bullish, however, the cycle is overbought and this warns of the potential for a short-term pullback. A move lower would allow the overbought reading to unwind and would open 4057.20, the 20-day EMA and a key near-term support. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 4206.00, the Jan 18 high. A break would resume the uptrend.

E-MINI S&P (H3): North of Last Week’s Highs

• RES 4: 4194.25 High Sep 13
• RES 3: 4180.00 High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4090.75 High Dec 14
• RES 1: 4056.75 High Jan 23
• PRICE: 4037.25 @ 06:54 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 3901.75/3891.50 Low Jan 19 / Low Jan 10
• SUP 2: 3788.50/78.45 Low Dec 22 / 61.8% of Oct 13-Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 3: 3735.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3670.00 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 uptrend

S&P E-Minis traded higher Monday and breached resistance at 4035.25, the Jan 17 high. The break cancels a recent bearish threat and resumes short-term bullish conditions. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode condition and this reinforces current trend conditions. The focus is on 4090.75 - last seen in mid-December. Key short-term support lies at 3901.75, the Jan 19 low. A break would reinstate a bearish threat.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H3) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $93.97 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $92.43 - High Nov 16
• RES 2: $91.39 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 9 bear leg
• RES 1: $89.18 - High Dec 1
• PRICE: $88.06 @ 05:51 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: $84.07/77.61 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $75.64 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $73.73 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures traded higher Monday and the contract remains closer to its recent highs. The move through resistance at $87.85, the Jan 18 high, cancels a recent bearish threat and attention turns to resistance at $89.18, the Dec 1 high. A break of this level would strengthen the case for bulls and pave the way for a climb towards $90.49, the Nov 17 high. Key short-term support to watch lies at $84.07, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (H3) Short-Term Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $87.00 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $85.33 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 9 bear leg
• RES 2: $83.14 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $82.66 - High Jan 18
• PRICE: $81.48 @ 07:04 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: $78.45/72.74 - Low Jan 19 / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $70.56 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $67.44 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

WTI futures traded higher Monday and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Key short-term resistance is located at $82.66, the Jan 18 high. Clearance of this hurdle would reinstate the recent bullish theme and expose $83.14, the Dec 1 high and $85.33, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, the support to watch lies at $78.45, the Jan 19 low. A breach of this level would signal a potential reversal.

GOLD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: $1998.4 - High Apr 18, 2022
• RES 3: $1982.0 - High Apr 19, 2022
• RES 2: $1963.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 1: $1940.7 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $1939.0 @ 07:19 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: $1896.7/78.5 - Low Jan 12 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1825.2 - Low Jan 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $1797.1 - Low Dec 28
• SUP 4: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal has traded to a fresh cycle high today. This confirms an extension on the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position - reflecting the uptrend. The focus is on $1963.0 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch lies at $1878.5, the 20-day EMA. Short-term pullbacks are considered corrective.

SILVER TECHS: Uptrend Intact

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 2: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $24.548 - High Jan 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $23.652 @ 07:24 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: $22.879 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $22.557 - Low Dec 16 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $20.872 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: $20.585 - Low Nov 21

Silver is trading in a range. The trend direction remains up and moving average studies are in a bull mode position. Fresh trend highs in December reinforced the positive theme. Furthermore, the move higher has maintained the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $24.729, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support is at $22.557, the Dec 16 low.