MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - JPY Downtrend Remains Firmly Intact
Price Signal Summary - JPY Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- In the equity space, the short-term trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and the latest recovery appears - for now - to be a correction. The contract has recently cleared the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower. Sights are on 4907.57 next, 50.0% of the Oct 27 ‘23 - Apr 1 bull leg. Firm resistance is 5138.90, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal a possible reversal. {EU} EUROSTOXX 50 futures are holding on to the bulk of the recovery from 4762.00, the Apr 19 low. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and resistance at 4990.00, Apr 15 high. This highlights a potentially stronger reversal. A continuation higher would expose the bull trigger at 5079.00, Apr 2 high. Initial support to watch is 4869.70, the 50-day EMA.
- In FX, EURUSD is trading higher today. The pair has pierced resistance at 1.0726, the 20-day EMA. The move higher appears to be a correction that is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. A resumption of the downtrend would open 1.0568 next, the Nov 2 2023 low, and 1.0534, the base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high. A clear break of the 20-day EMA would instead signal scope for a stronger recovery towards 1.0780, the 50-day EMA. The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and this week’s recovery appears to be a correction - for now. The move higher is allowing an oversold condition to unwind. The recent break lower, maintains the downward price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of weakness would open 1.2266, the Nov 14 2023 low. Resistance to watch is 1.2583, the 50-day EMA. The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish and the pair continues to appreciate. This week’s move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. Sights are on 157.65 next, the 2.236 projection of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing. On the downside, support to watch lies at 153.56, the 20-day EMA.
- On the commodity front, Gold has this week pierced the 20-day EMA and this highlights the start of a possible corrective cycle. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for an extension towards $2229.4, the 50-day EMA. Note that a short-term bear cycle would allow a significant overbought condition to unwind. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $2431.5, the recent Apr 12 high. In the oil space, WTI futures have recovered from their recent lows and price continues to trade above key support at $81.03, the 50-day EMA. The recent move lower highlights a corrective phase and a clear break of the 50-day average would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards $76.07, the Mar 11 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $86.97, the Apr 12 high.
- In the FI space, the trend outlook in Bund futures is unchanged and remains bearish. The contract has traded to fresh cycle lows this week, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 129.26, the 1.618 projection of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing. On the upside, firm resistance is at 133.05, the Apr 12 high. First resistance is at 131.48, the 20-day EMA. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact. Wednesday’s break of support at 96.01, the Apr 17 low, and yesterday’s extension confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards the 95.00 handle next. Initial firm resistance is 97.35, the 20-day EMA.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 1.0943 High Mar 21
- RES 3: 1.0885 High Apr 09
- RES 2: 1.0780 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0726/53 20-day EMA / Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.0723 @ 05:51 BST Apr 26
- SUP 1: 1.0601 Low Apr 16
- SUP 2: 1.0568 Low Nov 2 ‘23
- SUP 3: 1.0537 Base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high
- SUP 4: 1.0517 Low Nov 1 ‘23
EURUSD is trading higher today. The pair has pierced resistance at 1.0726, the 20-day EMA. The move higher appears to be a correction that is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. A resumption of the downtrend would signal scope for weakness towards 1.0568 next, the Nov 2 2023 low, and 1.0534, the base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high. A clear break of the 20-day EMA would instead signal scope for a stronger recovery.
GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 1.2803 High Mar 21
- RES 3: 1.2709 High Apr 09
- RES 2: 1.2583 50-day EMA values
- RES 1: 1.2541 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.2500 @ 06:09 BST Apr 26
- SUP 1: 1.2423/2300 Low Apr 24 / 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.2266 Low Nov 14 ‘23
- SUP 3: 1.2239 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.2187 Low Nov 10
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and this week’s recovery appears to be a correction - for now. The move higher is allowing an oversold condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up and the recent break lower, maintains the downward price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of weakness would open 1.2266, the Nov 14 2023 low. Resistance to watch is 1.2583, the 50-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.8704 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
- RES 3: 0.8683 High Jan 2
- RES 2: 0.8665 61.8% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
- RES 1: 0.860045 High Apr 24 / 23
- PRICE: 0.8577 @ 06:37 BST Apr 26
- SUP 1: 0.8567/65 50-day EMA / Low Apr 25
- SUP 2: 0.8521/8504 Low Apr 17 / Low Mar 8
- SUP 3: 0.8498/93 Low Feb 14 / Low Aug 23 2023 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
The S/T trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. A strong rally on Apr 19, resulted in a break of 0.8602, Mar 22 high and a key resistance. This confirmed a range breakout and a resumption of the bull cycle that started Feb 14. This has opened 0.8665, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial key support to watch lies at 0.8567, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would be bearish.
USDJPY TECHS: Heading North
- RES 4: 158.38 2.382 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
- RES 3: 157.65 2.236 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
- RES 2: 157.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 156.82 Intraday high
- PRICE: 156.20 @ 05:59 BST Apr 26
- SUP 1: 154.46 Low Apr 22
- SUP 2: 153.56/151.65 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 150.81 Low Apr 5
- SUP 4: 150.27 Low Mar 21
The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish and the pair continues to appreciate. This week’s move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are on 157.65 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, support to watch lies at 153.56, the 20-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 170.04 1.764 proj of the Jan 1 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
- RES 3: 169.96 High Jul 2008 and a major resistance
- RES 2: 169.05 1.618 proj of the Jan 1 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
- RES 1: 168.35 Intraday high
- PRICE: 167.44 @ 06:54 BST Apr 26
- SUP 1: 165.95 Low Apr 25
- SUP 2: 164.70 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 164.11 Trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low
- SUP 4: 163.46 50-day EMA
The EURJPY trend condition remains bullish. This week’s gains have resulted in a breach of 165.35, the Mar 20 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. The break higher opens 169.05 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key trendline support at 164.11 remains intact. The line is drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low and a clear break of it is required to signal a short-term reversal. MA studies remain in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a clear uptrend.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trades Through Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6668 High Mar 8
- RES 3: 0.6644 High Apr 9 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.6617 50.0% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6557 38.2% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
- PRICE: 0.6542 @ 08:07 BST Apr 26
- SUP 1: 0.6441/6363 Low Apr 23 / 19 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.6315 Low Oct 31 ‘23
- SUP 4: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 ‘23 and a key support
AUDUSD maintains this week’s bullish phase and the pair is trading higher today. Resistance at 0.6526, the 50-day EMA, has been breached and a clear break would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a cimb towards 0.6644, the Apr 9 high. A bearish trend theme remains intact and a reversal lower would refocus attention on 0.6363, the Apr 19 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this support would resume the downtrend.
USDCAD TECHS: Trading At This Week’s Lows
- RES 4: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3855 High Nov 10 2023
- RES 2: 1.3804/46 High Apr 19 / 16
- RES 1: 1.3763 High Apr 22
- PRICE: 1.3649 @ 08:10 BST Apr 26
- SUP 1: 1.3637 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.3604 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
- SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4
USDCAD is trading at this week’s lows. A bullish trend condition remains intact and the most recent pullback appears to be a correction - for now. The pair has recently cleared resistance at 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 high. This opens 1.3855 next, the Nov 10 ‘23 high. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear rising trend. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3604 today.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (M4) Fresh Trend Low
- RES 4: 134.15 High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 133.48 High Mar 27
- RES 2: 133.05 High Apr 12
- RES 1: 131.48 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 129.78 @ 05:32 BST Apr 26
- SUP 1: 129.53 Low Apr 25
- SUP 2: 129.26 1.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
- SUP 3: 129.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 128.88 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
The trend outlook in Bund futures is unchanged and remains bearish. The contract has traded to fresh cycle lows this week, confirming once again a resumption of the downtrend. Key support at 131.23, the Feb 29 low, has recently been cleared. Sights are on 129.26, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, firm resistance is at 133.05, the Apr 12 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective. First resistance is at 131.48, the 20-day EMA.
BOBL TECHS: (M4) Southbound
- RES 4: 118.790 High Feb 15 and Mar 8 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 118.460 High Mar 12
- RES 3: 118.100/118.310 High Apr 12 / High Mar 27
- RES 1: 117.301 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 116.380 @ 05:34 BST Apr 26
- SUP 1: 116.270 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 116.135 1.50 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
- SUP 3: 115.964 1.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
- SUP 4: 115.752 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
The downtrend in Bobl futures remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle low again yesterday. Key support at 117.200, the Feb 29 low, has recently been cleared, strengthening the bearish theme. Fresh trend lows this week confirm a continuation of the downtrend. Sights are on 116.135, a Fibonacci projection. For bulls, a break of resistance at 118.310, Mar 27 high, would instead highlight a reversal. First resistance is 117.301, 20-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 106.040 Low Feb 15
- RES 3: 106.010 High Mar 8
- RES 2: 105.790/875 High Mar 25 and key resistance / High Mar 12
- RES 1: 105.458/680 20-day EMA / High Apr 12
- PRICE: 105.160 @ 05:46 BST Apr 26
- SUP 1: 105.140 Low Apr 25
- SUP 2: 105.106 1.382 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 25 price swing
- SUP 3: 105.047 1.50 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing
- SUP 4: 105.000 Round number support
The trend condition in Schatz futures is unchanged and remains bearish. The recent break of support at 105.490, the Feb 29 low and bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. This week’s fresh trend lows reinforce current conditions and sights are on 105.106, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance has been defined at 105.790, the Mar 25 high. Initial firm resistance is 105.458, the 20-day EMA.
GILT TECHS: (M4) Bearish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: 100.05 High Mar 22
- RES 3: 99.37 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 99.10 High Apr 10
- RES 1: 97.35/98.23 20-day EMA / High Apr 12
- PRICE: 95.72 @ Close Apr 25
- SUP 1: 95.36 Low Apr 25
- SUP 2: 95.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 94.86 2.236 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
- SUP 4: 94.52 2.382 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact. Wednesday’s break of support at 96.01, the Apr 17 low, and yesterday’s extension confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, moving average studies have recently crossed, highlighting a bear-mode set-up. Scope is seen for a move towards the 95.00 handle next. Initial firm resistance is 97.35, the 20-day EMA.
BTP TECHS: (M4) Trades Through Key SUpport
- RES 4: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 120.28 High Mar 14
- RES 2: 119.55 High Mar 27
- RES 1: 117.72/119.10 50-day EMA / High Apr 10
- PRICE: 116.25 @ Close Apr 25
- SUP 1: 115.76 Low Apr 25
- SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8 ‘23 (cont)
- SUP 3: 114.74 1.236 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 22 - Mar 14 price swing
- SUP 4: 114.09 1.382 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 22 - Mar 14 price swing
A bearish threat in BTP futures remains present and yesterday’s move lower reinforces this theme. The break lower has resulted in a breach of key support at 116.15, the Feb 22 low and bear trigger. A clear break of this level would highlight an important bearish development and signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 115.70 initially, the Dec 8 2023 low (cont). Key short-term resistance to watch is 119.10, the Mar 27 high.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M4) Resumes Its Downtrend
- RES 4: 110-06 High Apr 4
- RES 3: 109-26+ High Apr 10
- RES 2: 109-22+ 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 108-22+ High Apr 19 and the 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 107-12+ @ 16:40 BST Apr 25
- SUP 1: 107-07+ 76.4% of the Oct - Dec ‘23 bull leg (cont)
- SUP 2: 106-27 2.764 proj of Dec 27 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 106-18 Base of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 1 low
- SUP 4: 106-08 3.00 proj of Dec 27 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing
The trend outlook in Treasuries is unchanged and the direction is down. The contract has traded to a fresh cycle low Thursday at 107-04. MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up too, highlighting a clear downtrend. Note that the recent consolidation appears to have been a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern. Sights are on 107.07+ (tested), a Fibonacci retracement. A break would open 106-27, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is 108-22+, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Short-Term Bull Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
- RES 3: 5079.00 High Apr 2 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 5043.00 High Apr 4
- RES 1: 5003.00 High Apr 24
- PRICE: 4942.00 @ 07:09 BST Apr 25
- SUP 1: 4869.70/4862.00 50-day EMA / Low Apr 24
- SUP 2: 4762.00 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 4711.00 Low Feb 19
- SUP 4: 4700.00 Round number support
Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding on to the bulk of the recovery from 4762.00, the Apr 19 low. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and resistance at 4990.00, Apr 15 high. This highlights a potentially stronger reversal and signals the end of the correction between Apr 2 - 19. A continuation higher would expose the bull trigger at 5079.00, Apr 2 high. Key support lies at 4762.00. Initial support to watch is 4869.70, the 50-day EMA.
E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Short-Term Key Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 5333.50 High Apr 1 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 5285.00 High Apr 10
- RES 2: 5213.25 High Apr 15
- RES 1: 5138.90 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 5125.50 @ 07:20 BST Apr 26
- SUP 1: 4963.50 Low Apr 19
- SUP 2: 4907.57 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 ‘23 - Apr 1 bull leg
- SUP 3: 4863.75 Low Jan 19
- SUP 4: 4799.50 Low Jan 17
The short-term trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and the latest recovery appears - for now - to be a correction. Last week’s bearish extension reinforced current short-term conditions. The contract has recently cleared the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower. Sights are on 4907.57 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm resistance is 5138.90, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal a possible reversal.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (M4) Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: $96.16 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 3: $94.94 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 2: $92.96 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 1: $92.18 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $89.52 @ 07:05 BST Apr 26
- SUP 1: $85.88 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $80.56 - 61.8% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $76.18 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 4: $72.38 Low Dec 13 and a key support
Brent futures have traded higher today and remain above recent lows and key support at $85.88, the 50-day EMA. The recent move down highlights the start of a corrective cycle. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to suggest scope for a deeper retracement that would open $80.56, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $92.18, the Apr 12 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.
WTI TECHS: (M4) Pivot Support Stays Intact For Now
- RES 4: $91.24 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
- RES 2: $88.07 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 1: $86.97 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $83.99 @ 07:15 BST Apr 26
- SUP 1: $81.03 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $76.07 - Low Mar 11
- SUP 3: $71.47 Low Feb 5
- SUP 4: $70.11 - Low Jan 3
WTI futures have recovered from their recent lows and price continues to trade above key short-term support at $81.03, the 50-day EMA. The recent move lower highlights a corrective phase and a clear break of the 50-day average would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards $76.07, the Mar 11 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $86.97, the Apr 12 high. A break would resume the uptrend.
GOLD TECHS: Short-Term Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: $2500.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $2481.5 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 2: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 1: $2431.5 High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $2339.6 @ 07:22 BST Apr 26
- SUP 1: $2291.6 - Low Apr 23
- SUP 2: $2229.4 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
- SUP 4: $2088.5 - High Dec 28
Gold is in consolidation mode and trading closer to its recent lows. The precious metal has this week pierced the 20-day EMA and this highlights the start of a possible corrective cycle. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards $2229.4, the 50-day EMA. Note that a S/T bear cycle would allow a significant overbought condition to unwind. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $2431.5, the recent Apr 12 high.
SILVER TECHS: Corrective Phase
- RES 4: $30.912 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 3: $30.100 - Feb 2021 high and a key resistance
- RES 2: $30.000 - Psychological round number
- RES 1: $28.936/29.797 - High Apr 19 / 12
- PRICE: $27.634 @ 08:18 BST Apr 26
- SUP 1: $26.668 - Low Apr 23
- SUP 2: $25.883/24.328 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 27
- SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
- SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support
A sharp sell-off in Silver on Monday highlights the start of a corrective cycle. The metal has traded through the 20-day EMA and an extension lower would signal scope for a move towards $25.883, the 50-day EMA. Note that a pullback is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. A break of the 50-day EMA is required to strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at $29.797, the Apr 12 high.