MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - JPY Under Pressure

Price Signal Summary - Yen On The Back Foot

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis continue to move from strength to strength, with the e-mini S&P this morning showing above 4,200 to top 4195.50, 1.618 projection of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing. Key support is unchanged at 4110.50, Apr 21 low.
• In FX, EURUSD has cleared bear channel resistance drawn off the Jan 6 high to confirm a resumption of the current uptrend and maintain a recovery toward the 1.2184 Feb 26 high. Key short-term support remains 1.1994, Apr 22 low. GBPUSD remains below 1.4009, Apr 20 high. A bearish risk dominates while this level remains intact. Support to watch is at 1.3824, Apr 22 low. The Yen is under pressure:
  • USDJPY has found support at 107.48. Just below trendline support drawn off the Jan 6 low. This week's recovery highlights a developing bullish theme while support at 107.48 remains intact.
  • The EURJPY rally is persisting this morning, confirming the resumption of the underlying uptrend. This opens 132.36, 2.236 projection of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing. The cross remains within its bull channel, drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold is softer. The outlook remains bullish and the focus is on $1805.7, Feb 25 high. Watch support at $1763.4 - 50-day EMA. Brent (M1) remains below last week's high. Key support to watch is $63.62, the 50-day EMA. WTI (M1) found resistance last week at $64.38 on Apr 20. The 50-day EMA at $60.26 is seen as a firm intraday support.

In the FI space, Bunds (M1) are trading lower and approaching support at 170.05, 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Mar 25 rally. A break would open 169.24, Feb 25 low. Gilts (M1) are lower this morning and have breached support at 127.81, Apr 14 low. A clear break would open 127.32, Apr 1 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Clears The Bear Channel Resistance

• RES 4: 1.2285/88 High Jan 8 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2243 High Feb 25 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2184 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 1.2150 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2133 @ 06:01 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 1.2056 Low Apr 28
• SUP 2: 1.1994/43 Low Apr 22 / Low Apr 19
• SUP 3: 1.1861 Low Apr 7 and 8
• SUP 4: 1.1795 Low Apr 6

EURUSD traded higher Wednesday and importantly cleared the bear channel top drawn off the Jan 6 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and maintains a recovery towards 1.2184, Feb 26 high and the next key resistance at 1.2243, Feb 25 high. Moving average studies are again in a bull mode and this reinforces the bullish theme. Initial support lies at 1.2056, Apr 28 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Attention Is On Resistance At 1.4009

• RES 4: 1.4171 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4103 76.4% retracement of the Feb 24 - Apr 12 downleg
• RES 2: 1.4009/17 High Apr 20 / High Mar 4
• RES 1: 1.3977 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3955 @ 06:09 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 1.3824 Low Apr 22 and key intraday support
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3670/69 Low Mar 25 / Low Apr 12 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

GBPUSD recovered from yesterday's session low and has resumed its recent recovery. The pair however remains below recent highs of 1.4009. This marks the Apr 20 high and the recent pullback from this resistance highlights a bearish threat. Cable needs to clear 1.4009 to offset these concerns. A break higher would reinstate a bullish theme and open 1.4103, a Fibonacci retracement. Short-term support has been defined at 1.3824, Apr 22 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Consolidating Close To Recent Highs

• RES 4: 0.8840 High Feb 4
• RES 3: 0.8791/8843 High Feb 12 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 0.8721 High Apr 26
• PRICE: 0.8696 @ 06:20 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 0.8654 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8589 Low Apr 19
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8446/30 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band / Low Feb 27, 2020

EURGBP is consolidating and remains close to recent highs. The cross on Monday probed former resistance at 0.8719, Apr 16 high. Last week's strong gains signal scope for an extension higher and a clear break of 0.8719 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 4. This would open 0.8731, Feb 26 high and 0.8762, a retracement level. Key support to watch has been defined at 0.8589, Apr 19 low. A break would be bearish.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 110.55 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 109.96 High Apr 9
• RES 1: 109.23 50.0% retracement of the Mar 31 - Apr 23 sell-off
• PRICE: 108.60 @ 06:25 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 108.08/107.48 Low Apr 27 / Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 106.97 Low Mar 4
• SUP 3: 106.78 50.0% retracement of the Jan - Mar rally
• SUP 4: 106.37 Low Mar 1

The USDJPY outlook is bullish. The pair traded below pivot support last week at 107.77, a trendline drawn off the Jan 6 low. This week's recovery though suggests the trendline has remained intact and a bullish theme appears to be developing. Price has traded above the 20-day EMA and further gains would open 109.96, Apr 9 high. On the downside, 107.48, Apr 23 low marks the key support. A break would resume the recent bearish pressure.

EURJPY TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 133.13 High Sep 21, 2018 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 132.68 High Sep 27, 2018
• RES 2: 132 36 2.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 1: 131.84 Intraday high
• PRICE: 131.77 @ 06:35 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 130.97 High Apr 20 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 130.57 Low Apr 27
• SUP 3: 130.36 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 129.61 Bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low

EURJPY maintains a bullish focus following this week's gains that have confirmed a resumption of its uptrend. The cross has cleared former resistance at 130.97, Apr 20 high. The focus is on 132.36, a Fibonacci projection as the price climbs within its bull channel, drawn off the Oct 30 2020 low. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position too, reinforcing current conditions. Support is seen at Tuesday's low of 130.57.

AUDUSD TECHS: Tests Initial Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7895 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 2: 0.7849 High Mar 18 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 0.7816/18 High Apr 20/ Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.7792 @ 06:46 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 0.7691 Low Apr 22 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 0.7586 Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: 0.7532/17 Low Apr 1 and the bear trigger / Low Dec 22

AUDUSD remains within its recent range and above 0.7691, Apr 22 low. A bullish price structure dominates following the recent break of a trendline resistance drawn off the Feb 25 high and a climb back above the neckline of a recent head and shoulders reversal pattern. Resistance is at 0.7816, Apr 20 high has been probed. A clear break would open 0.7849, the Mar 18 high. Key S/T support is unchanged at 0.7691, a breach would be bearish.

USDCAD TECHS: New Cycle Lows

• RES 4: 1.2700 High Mar 8
• RES 3: 1.2653 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2491/96 High Apr 26 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2419 High Apr 27
• PRICE: 1.2304 @ 06:56 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 1.2288/51 Intraday low / Low Jan 31 2018
• SUP 2: 1.2239 1.236 proj of Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2229 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2178 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing

USDCAD maintains a softer tone and has traded lower hitting new cycle lows this week. The break of 1.2365, Mar 18 low confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend that has been in place since March 2020. MA studies remain in a bear mode reinforcing current trend conditions. The focus is on 1.2239, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial resistance is 1.2419, Apr 27 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Probes Support

• RES 4: 172.34 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 172.12 High Apr 8 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 171.62 High Apr 14
• RES 1: 171.05/27 20-day EMA / High Apr 22
• PRICE: 170.50 @ 05:01 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 170.05/04 76.4% of Feb 25 - Mar 25 rally / Low Apr 28
• SUP 2: 170.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 169.24 Low Feb 24 and major support
• SUP 4: 168.96 0.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing

Bund futures remain below resistance at 171.27, Apr 22 high and just above the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average and of 171.27 is required to signal scope for a stronger bullish theme and a recovery. This would open 171.62, Apr 14 high. Attention is on the downside though and yesterday price probed support at 170.05, a Fibonacci retracement. A break would resume bearish pressure and open 169.24, the major support.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 135.440 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 135.350 High Apr 8 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.180 High Apr 14
• RES 1: 134.983/050 20-day EMA / High Apr 22
• PRICE: 134.830 @ 05:07 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 134.660 Low Apr 20 / 28 and intraday bear trigger
• SUP 2: 134.466 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 3: 134.140 Low Feb 26 and key support
• SUP 4: 134.000 Round number support

Bobl futures traded in a choppy manner yesterday. Recently on Apr 22, the contract tested its 20-day EMA. Clearance of this average at 134.983, is needed to strengthen any bullish theme and pave the way for gains towards 135.180, Apr 14 high. The outlook remains bearish though and attention is on support at 134.660, Apr 20 low. A break would reinstate the recent bearish focus and the current downward cycle that started Mar 25.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Focus Is On Support

• RES 4: 112.174 0.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 3: 112.165 High Mar 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 112.150 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 112.103/120 20-day EMA / High Apr 22
• PRICE: 112.085 @ 05:19 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 112.060 Low Mar 10, Apr 20 and 28
• SUP 2: 112.053 50.0% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 3: 112.026 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 4: 111.993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Schatz futures remain below resistance. The contract recovered last week from 112.060, Apr 20 low. The 20-day EMA was probed however a clear break is still needed to strengthen a S/T bullish theme. This would signal scope for gains towards 112.150, Apr 8 high. 112.060 is the key near-term support. Clearance of this level would reinstate the recent bearish focus and would open 112.053, a Fibonacci retracement and below.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Trades Through Support

• RES 4: 130.38 High Feb 17 and 18
• RES 3: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 2: 129.27 High Mar 2
• RES 1: 128.45/129.09 20-day EMA / High Apr 23 and reversal trigger
• PRICE: 128.12 @ Close Apr 28
• SUP 1: 127.62 Low Apr 28
• SUP 2: 127.32 Low Apr 1
• SUP 3: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)

Gilt futures traded lower yesterday and through support at 127.81, Apr 14 low. Despite recovering from the session low, yesterday's move down strengthens a bearish case following the recent pullback from 129.09, Apr 23 high and the area of resistance around the 50-day EMA. An extension lower would open 127.32, Apr 1 low ahead of the key support at 126.79, Mar 18 low. Key resistance is at 129.09.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 150.39 High Mar 11 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 149.88 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 149.47 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 148.33/65 20-day EMA / High Apr 22
• PRICE: 147.45 @ Close Apr 28
• SUP 1: 147.05 Low Apr 28
• SUP 2: 146.84 Low Feb 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 146.16 Low Sep 21, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 145.56 Low Sep 15, 2020 (cont)

BTP futures remain bearish and the contract drifted lower again yesterday. Further downside is likely. The break on Apr 13 of support at 148.36, Mar 18 low reinforced a bearish theme. Furthermore. yesterday's move through 147.56, Mar 5 low strengthens the bearish case. Attention is on key support and the bear trigger at 146.84, Feb 26 low. Firm resistance is at 148.65.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (M1) Still Trading Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: 4099.00 1.00 proj of of the Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 3: 4023.00 Low Aug 16, 2007
• RES 2: 4000.00 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 3985.00 High Apr 28
• PRICE: 3978.00 @ 05:49 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 3919.87 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3889.00 Low Apr 20
• SUP 3: 3855.00 Low Mar 31
• SUP 4: 3814.65 50-day EMA

EUROSTOXX 50 is largely unchanged. Recent gains found resistance at 4000.00 and a sell-off dominated the Apr 20 session. The trend is overbought and any S/T corrective pullback would allow this to unwind. The 20-day EMA is at 3919.87. A clear break, together with a move below 3889.00, Apr 20 low would signal scope for a deeper sell-off towards the 50-day EMA at 3814.65. For bulls, a break of 4000.00, Apr 16 high resumes the uptrend.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M1) Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: $71.75 - High Jan 8 2020
• RES 3: $70.67 - High Mar 8 and the key bull trigger
• RES 2: $69.50 - High Mar 15
• RES 1: $67.85/68.08 - High Apr 28 / High Apr 20
• PRICE: $67 58 06:51 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: $65.47 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $64.58/63.91 - Low Apr 22 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $62.41 - Low Apr 12
• SUP 4: $61.25 - Low Apr 5

Brent crude futures maintain this week's firmer tone. The contract found resistance last week at $68.08, Apr 20 high and price remains below this key S/T resistance. A recent bullish focus is on hold following the pullback from $68.08 and price has recently probed the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper pullback. For bulls, clearance of $68.08 would reinstate a bullish focus and open $69.50, Mar 15 high.

WTI TECHS: (M1) Holding Onto This Week's Gains

• RES 4: $67.29 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $66.15 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $64.68 - High Mar 18
• RES 1: $64.53 - High Apr 28
• PRICE: $63.18 @ 06:40 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: $61.90 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $60.61 - Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: $60.40 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $58.77 - Low Apr 12

WTI futures continue to push higher and have extended this week's recovery. Price yesterday probed resistance at $64.38, Apr 20 high. A clear break of this level would strengthen a short-term bullish case and negate recent bearish signals. This would open $66.15, Mar 15 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $60.61, Apr 22 low. A break would be bearish.

GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: $1818.1 - 50.0% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off
• RES 3: $1816.0 - High Feb 23
• RES 2: $1805.7 - High Feb 25
• RES 1: $1797.9 - High Apr 22
• PRICE: $1780.4 @ 07:18 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: $1764.1/62.7 - 50-day EMA / Low Apr 28
• SUP 2: $1721.4 - Low Apr 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $1705.9 - Low Apr 1
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger

Gold remains above support and underlying conditions remain bullish. The yellow metal recently cleared resistance at $1758.8, Apr 8 high and importantly remains above the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, the recent break higher confirmed a double bottom reversal. Attention is on $1805.7, Feb 25 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $1721.4, Apr 5 low. Initial support is at $1764.1/62.70.

SILVER TECHS: Holds Above Support

• RES 4: $28.328 - High Feb 23
• RES 3: $27.686 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 1 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 2: $26.941 - 50.0% retracement of the Feb 1 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 1: $26.645 - High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $26.355 @ 09:20 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: $25.636 - Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: $24.686 - Low Apr 13 and a key support handle
• SUP 4: $23.781 - Low Mar 31

Silver short-term bullish conditions remain intact following recent gains and following yesterday's recovery from the session low. The break higher on Apr 21 resulted in a probe of resistance at $26.636, Mar 18 high and a key near-term hurdle for bulls. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bullish case and open $26.941, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at $24.686, Apr 13 low. Initial support is at $25.636.