MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Oil Price Confirms Resumption of ST Downtrend

Price Signal Summary – Oil Price Action Confirms Resumption of ST Downtrend

• S&P E-Minis continues to trade above recent lows. The outlook is unchanged and bearish, following the reversal from 3950.00, the Jun 28 high. The next support lies at 3735.00, the Jun 23 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to trade above 3343.00, the Jul 5 low. Short-term gains are still considered corrective and the primary trend direction remains down.
• EURUSD trend conditions remain bearish. The pair traded lower yesterday and touched parity, a key psychological support. Trend signals suggest scope for a continuation lower and a clear break of 1.00 would open 0.9944, a Fibonacci projection. USDJPY remains bullish. This week’s fresh cycle high confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and signals scope for an extension higher. The move higher also highlights the fact that corrections remain shallow, reinforcing underlying bullish conditions. AUDUSD maintains a bearish tone and has traded to a fresh trend low this week. The move lower on Monday resulted in a break of support at 0.6762, the Jul 5 / 6 low and 0.6759, 50.0% of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 bull cycle.
• Gold traded sharply lower last week and in the process confirmed a breach of key short-term support and the bear trigger at $1787.00, May 16 low. The break marks a resumption of the broader downtrend and this week’s extension reinforces bearish conditions. A sharp sell-off in WTI futures yesterday and a move lower today have confirmed a resumption of the short-term downtrend and the end of the recent corrective recovery. The contract has traded below $95.10, the Jul 6 low.
• Bund futures traded higher Tuesday and confirmed a resumption of the short-term uptrend - resistance at 152.92, the Jul 6 high, has been breached. The break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and attention is on the 154.00 handle. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures is unchanged and remains bullish. The latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16 - price has cleared resistance at 114.55, the Jun 24 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Downtrend Intact

• RES 4: 1.0530 Bull channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 3: 1.0449 High Jul 5
• RES 2: 1.0346/59 20-day EMA / Low Jun 15
• RES 1: 1.0191 High Jul 8
• PRICE: 1.0058 @ 16:16 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 1.0000/9991 Low Jul 12 / Bear channel base
• SUP 2: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9785 2.00 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD trend conditions remain bearish. The pair traded lower yesterday and touched parity, a key psychological support. Trend signals suggest scope for a continuation lower and a clear break of 1.00 would open 0.9944, a Fibonacci projection. Note that there is a firm support at 0.9991 - the bear channel base drawn from the Feb 10 high. Initial resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 1.0191. Gains would be considered corrective.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Price Activity

• RES 4: 1.2406 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 2: 1.2213 High Jun 29
• RES 1: 1.2056/2117 High Jul 8 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1904 @ 06:29 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 1.1807 Low Jul 12
• SUP 2: 1.1795 0.764 proj of the Mar 23 - May 13 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1777 Low Mar 26 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing

Trend conditions in GBPUSD remain bearish - Cable traded to a fresh trend low Tuesday of 1.1807 to confirm a resumption of its downtrend. This marks an extension of last week’s move lower that resulted in a break of a bear trigger at 1.1934, Jun 14 low. The focus is on 1.1795 next, a Fibonacci projection. Clearance of this level would open the Mar 26 2020 lows of 1.1777. Firm resistance is at 1.2117, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Key Short-Term Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 3: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Jun 15 / bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8627/79 High Jul 4 / High Jul 1
• RES 1: 0.8523 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8433 @ 06:49 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 0.8426 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.8393 Low May 17 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8367 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 0.8313 Low Apr 22

EURGBP short-term conditions remain bearish and the cross continues to trade at levels below the 50-day EMA. Scope is seen for a deeper retracement towards support at 0.8393, the May 17 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish case. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 0.8523, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal a possible reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 139.48 1.00 proj of the Jun 16 - 22 - 23
• RES 2: 138.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 137.75/138.00 High Jul 8 / Round number resistance
• PRICE: 137.01 @ 06:57 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 135.37/134.27 20-day EMA / Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 133.30 Bull channel base from the Mar 4 low
• SUP 3: 131.50 Low Jun 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support

USDJPY remains bullish. This week’s fresh cycle high confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and signals scope for an extension higher. The move higher also highlights the fact that corrections remain shallow, reinforcing underlying bullish conditions. The focus is on the 138.00 handle and 138.56 further out, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term support lies at 134.27, the Jun 23 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 144.28 High Jun 28 and key resistance
• RES 3: 142.37 High Jul 5
• RES 2: 140.03 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 139.17 High Jul 11
• PRICE: 137.58 @ 07:05 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 136.87 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 136.25 Low May 30
• SUP 3: 135.54 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 135.40 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 28 climb

EURJPY is trading closer to its recent lows. The cross remains vulnerable following the reversal from 144.28, the Jun 28 high. The sell-off resulted in a break below the 20- and 50-day EMAs and price has traded below support at 137.85. A clear breach of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and open 136.25, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 140.03, the 20-day EMA ahead of 142.37, the July 5 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 0.7138 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 0.0.6996/7069 50-day EMA / High Jun 16 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6881/6964 20-day EMA / High Jun 28
• PRICE: 0.6758 @ 07:14 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 0.6685 High Mar 9 2020
• SUP 2: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6588 Low May 28 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6538 Low May 26 2020

AUDUSD maintains a bearish tone and has traded to a fresh trend low this week. The move lower on Monday resulted in a break of support at 0.6762, the Jul 5 / 6 low and 0.6759, 50.0% of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 bull cycle. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend and sets the scene for a move towards 0.6685, the Mar 9 2020 high. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 0.6881, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3300 High Nov 4 2020
• RES 3: 1.3192 1.00 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3113 High Nov 23 2020
• RES 1: 1.3084 High Jul 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3029 @ 07:26 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 1.2936 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 1.2928 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2853/19 50-day EMA / Low Jun 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.2763 Low Jun 13

USDCAD trend conditions are bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. The pair rallied sharply higher on Jul 5, reinforcing short-term bullish conditions. Key support around the 50-day EMA has remained intact - the average intersects at 1.2853. Recent gains have resulted in a print above resistance at 1.3079, May 17 high and a bull trigger. A clear break would strengthen bullish conditions and open 1.3113, Nov 23 ‘20 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Resumes Its Short-Term Uptrend

• RES 4: 155.01 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 154.65 High May 27
• RES 2: 154.00 Round number
• RES 1: 153.48 High Jul 12
• PRICE: 152.58 @ 05:11 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 149.75 Low Jul 11
• SUP 2: 148.24 Low Jul 1
• SUP 3: 146.50 Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 144.72 Low Jun 28 and a key support

Bund futures traded higher Tuesday and confirmed a resumption of the short-term uptrend - resistance at 152.92, the Jul 6 high, has been breached. The break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and attention is on the 154.00 handle next ahead of 154.65, the May 27 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 149.75, the July 11 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 127.160 High May 12
• RES 3: 126.879 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 126.710 High May 26
• RES 1: 126.560 High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 126.050 @ 05:19 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 124.420 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 123.010 Low Jun 30
• SUP 3: 121.910 Low Jun 28 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 120.990 Low Jun 21

Bobl futures traded higher again yesterday. A bull cycle remains in play and attention is on resistance at 126.560, the Jul 6 high. The recent breach of 123.960, the Jun 24 high, confirmed a resumption of the current bullish corrective cycle and price has established a positive sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 126.710, the May 26 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 121.190, Jun 28 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Short-Term Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 110.412 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 110.256 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 110.063 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 110.005 High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 109.805 @ 05:28 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 109.219 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 108.760/425 Low Jun 30 / Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: 108.025 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 107.705 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger

Short-term trend conditions in Schatz futures are unchanged and the outlook is bullish. Resistance at 109.030, Jun 24 high, has recently been cleared. This marked an extension of a corrective cycle and price has established a bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 110.063, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 108.425, the Jun 28 low.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 118.63 High May 24
• RES 3: 118.16 1.382 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 2: 117.48 1.236 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 1: 117.09 High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 116.05 @ Close Jul 12
• SUP 1: 114.08/113.03 Low Jul 8 / Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 111.72 Low Jun 29 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 110.57 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 109.89 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger

The short-term outlook in Gilt futures is unchanged and remains bullish. The latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16 - price has cleared resistance at 114.55, the Jun 24 high. A resumption of gains would open 117.48 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 111.72, the Jun 29 low. A break of this level would be bearish.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.00 High May 12
• RES 2: 127.79 High May 26
• RES 1: 126.41 High Jul 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 125.66 @ Close Jul 12
• SUP 1: 123.17/121.56 20-day EMA / Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 119.81 Low Jun 28 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 4: 115.72 Low Jun 16

BTP futures traded higher yesterday but remain below recent highs. The short-term trend condition is bullish - resistance at 122.80, the Jun 24 high, has been breached. The break suggests potential for a stronger short-term correction and attention is on 127.79, the May 26 high. Initial key support to watch is 119.81, the Jun 28 low. A break of this level would instead signal a potential short-term top and the end of the current corrective cycle.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Remains Above Last Week’s Low

• RES 4: 3774.00 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 3689.00 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 3584.00 High Jun 27 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 3504.00/3571.00 High Jul 8 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3465.00 @ 05:51 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3321.30 50.0% retracement the major 2020 - 2021 upleg
• SUP 3: 3300.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3241.70 1.382 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to trade above 3343.00, the Jul 5 low. Short-term gains are still considered corrective and the primary trend direction remains down. Last week’s breach of support at 3384.00, Jun 16 low, reinforces bearish conditions and highlights a resumption of the broader downtrend, opening 3321.30, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 3504.00, the Jul 8 high. A break would signal scope for a stronger recovery.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Key Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4308.50 High Apr 28
• RES 3: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 3974.01 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3950.00 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 3828.75 @ 06:58 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 3735.00/3639.00 Low Jun 23 / 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 3500.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3384.75 0.764 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis continues to trade above recent lows. The outlook is unchanged and bearish, following the reversal from 3950.00, the Jun 28 high. The next support lies at 3735.00, the Jun 23 low. A breach of this level would expose key support at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 3950.00 is required to reinstate a bullish theme. This would open the 50-day EMA, currently at 3974.01.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U2) Trades Below The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: $118.12 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $116.24 - High Jun 29 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $108.94/114.75 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 5
• RES 1: $107.70 High Jul 8
• PRICE: $99.48 @ 05:41 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: $98.30 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $97.25 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 3: $95.92 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: $95.13 - Low Mar 29

Brent futures traded sharply lower yesterday. This marks the end of the recent corrective bounce and a resumption of the current bear cycle. Price has traded below $98.50, the Jul 6/7 low and a bear trigger. A continuation lower would reinforce the current downtrend and scope is seen for weakness towards $97.25 next, the Apr 25 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $107.70, the Jul 11 high.

WTI TECHS: (Q2) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: $116.58 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $114.05 - High Jun 29 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: $106.54/111.45 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 5
• RES 1: $105.24 - High Jul 8
• PRICE: $95.66 @ 06:13 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: $93.67- Intraday low
• SUP 2: $93.45 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 3: $90.13 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 14 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 4: $86.81 - Low Mar 15

A sharp sell-off in WTI futures yesterday and a move lower today have confirmed a resumption of the short-term downtrend and the end of the recent corrective recovery. The contract has traded below $95.10, the Jul 6 low. This marks an extension of the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $93.45 next, Apr 25 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $105.24, the Jul 8 high.

GOLD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: $1878.4 - High Jun 13
• RES 3: $1844.3 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 2: $1788.2/25.9 - 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1752.3/87.0 - High Jul 8 / Low May 16, recent breakout level
• PRICE: $1723.8 @ 07:19 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 2021
• SUP 2: $1706.8 - 1.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $1690.6 - Low Aug 9 2021
• SUP 4: $1680.5 - 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Gold traded sharply lower last week and in the process confirmed a breach of key short-term support and the bear trigger at $1787.00, May 16 low. The break marks a resumption of the broader downtrend and this week’s extension reinforces bearish conditions. The focus is on $1706.8 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition highlighting current bearish sentiment. Initial firm resistance is at $1787.0.

SILVER TECHS: Fresh Trend Low

• RES 4: $21.967 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $21.303 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $20.464 - Low May 13 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: $20.216 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $19.014 @ 08:00 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: $18.746 - Low Jul 12
• SUP 2: $18.693 - 61.8% retracement of Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $18.447 - 2.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $18.250 - Low Jul 8 2020

The Silver outlook remains bearish following a resumption of the downtrend last week, and yesterday’s fresh trend low. This marks an extension of the current bear cycle that started Jun 6 and an extension of the broader downtrend that has been in place since early February 2021. The metal has also cleared the $20.00 handle and sights are on $18.693 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The 20-day EMA, at $20.216 marks a key short-term resistance.