MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Oil Sell-Off Signals Scope for Continuation

Price Signal Summary – Oil Sell-Off Signals Scope for Continuation

• S&P E-Minis remains above recent lows. The contract remains vulnerable though following last week’s bearish cycle and reversal from 3950.00, the Jun 28 high. The next support lies at 3735.00, the Jun 23 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have recovered from Tuesday’s low. Gains are likely corrective and the trend outlook remains bearish. This week’s breach of support at 3384.00, the Jun 16 low, reinforces bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend.
• EURUSD traded lower once again yesterday and conditions remain bearish. Tuesday's impulsive sell-off resulted in a break of 1.0350, May 13 low, to confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend. USDJPY continues to consolidate inside its recent range. The outlook remains bullish. A fresh cycle high last week confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and this maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. AUDUSD continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The pair remains vulnerable following the recent breach of 0.6829, the May 12 low. The break strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started February 2021.
• Gold has traded sharply lower this week and in the process confirmed a breach of key short-term support and the bear trigger at $1787.00, the May 16 low. The break lower confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend and sets the scene for weakness towards $1706.3 next, a Fibonacci projection. A sharp sell-off in WTI futures this week reinforces current bearish conditions and signals scope for a continuation lower. The sell-off resulted in a break of support at $101.53, the Jun 22 low and a short-term bear trigger.
• Bund futures traded higher again yesterday and the contract maintains a short-term bullish tone. This follows the recent breach of resistance at 149.00 that has established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. Gilt futures outlook remains bullish. Gains last week confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16 - price has cleared resistance at 114.55, the Jun 24 high. Last Friday’s rally also signals an acceleration of the current uptrend and the contract has crossed the 116.00 handle.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.0787 High May 30 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 1.0774 High Jun 9
• RES 2: 1.0615 High Jun 27 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.0359/0467 Low Jun 15 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0214 @ 06:15 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 1.0162 Low Jul 06
• SUP 2: 1.0102 1.236 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0027 Bear channel base drawn from the Feb 10 high
• SUP 4: 1.0000 Parity and a key psychological support

EURUSD traded lower once again yesterday and conditions remain bearish. Tuesday's impulsive sell-off resulted in a break of 1.0350, May 13 low, to confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend. This week’s move also highlights an acceleration of the trend and the pair is touching the lowest levels in 20 years. The focus shifts to 1.0102, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is seen at 1.0467, 20-day EMA. Initial resistance is at 1.0359.

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.2495 76.4% retracement of the May 27 - Jun 14 downleg
• RES 3: 1.2406 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 1: 1.2125/2198 High Jul 5 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1961 @ 06:20 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 1.1846 0.764 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.1795 0.764 proj of the Mar 23 - May 13 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1777 Low Mar 26 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing

GBPUSD trend conditions remain bearish. This week’s move lower has resulted in a break of the key support and bear trigger at 1.1934, the Jun 14 low. The move through this level reinforces bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The focus is 1.1795 next, a Fibonacci projection. Weakness through here would open the Mar 26 2020 lows of 1.1777. First key resistance is at 1.2198, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Arrives At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.8852 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Mar ‘22 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Jun 15 / bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8627/79 High Jul 4 / High Jul 1
• PRICE: 0.8537 @ 06:29 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 0.8536/33 50-day EMA / Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: 0.8486 Low Jun 9
• SUP 3: 0.8433 Low May 23
• SUP 4: 0.8393 Low May 17 and a key support

EURGBP traded lower Wednesday and remains at the bottom of this week’s range. The cross is testing a key support area at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 0.8536. A clear break of this EMA would undermine recent bullish conditions and signal scope for a pullback towards 0.8486, the Jun 9 low. On the upside, a reversal higher would refocus attention on resistance at 0.8679, Jul 1 high and the bull trigger at 0.8721.

USDJPY TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 138.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 137.30 1.50 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 137.00 High Jun 29 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 135.73 @ 06:37 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 134.27 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 132.49 Bull channel base from the Mar 4 low
• SUP 3: 131.50 Low Jun 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support

USDJPY continues to consolidate inside its recent range. The outlook remains bullish. A fresh cycle high last week confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and this maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 137.30, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch is unchanged at 134.27, the Jun 23 low. A break would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback towards the bull channel support at 132.49.

EURJPY TECHS: Key Short-Term Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 144.28 High Jun 28 and key resistance
• RES 3: 142.37 High Jul 5
• RES 2: 141.03 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 139.50 High Jul 6
• PRICE: 138.50 @ 06:44 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 137.27 Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: 137.10 61.8% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 28 climb
• SUP 3: 136.25 Low May 30
• SUP 4: 135.40 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 28 climb

EURJPY maintains a short-term bearish tone following the recent reversal from 144.28, the Jun 28 high. This has resulted in a move below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and yesterday, the cross delivered a print below 137.85, the Jun 16 low and a key short-term support. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 142.37, the July 5 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 0.7138 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 0.7069 High Jun 16 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6924/6964 20-day EMA / High Jun 28
• PRICE: 0.6817 @ 07:14 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 0.6762 Low Jul 5 / 6
• SUP 2: 0.6759 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘ 21 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 0.6685 High Mar 9 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The pair remains vulnerable following the recent breach of 0.6829, the May 12 low. The break strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started February 2021. The move lower also maintains a broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 0.6759 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.6964, high Jun 28.

USDCAD TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3300 High Nov 4 2020
• RES 3: 1.3192 1.00 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3113 High Nov 23 2020
• RES 1: 1.3084 High Jul 5
• PRICE: 1.3013 @ 07:19 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 1.2966 High Jul 1
• SUP 2: 1.2898 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2830/19 50-day EMA / Low Jun 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.2763 Low Jun 13

USDCAD is bullish. The pair rallied sharply higher Tuesday, reinforcing short-term bullish conditions. Key support around the 50-day EMA has remained intact - the average intersects at 1.2830. Tuesday’s gains also delivered a print above resistance at 1.3079, the May 17 high and a bull trigger. A clear break would strengthen bullish conditions and open 1.3113, Nov 23 2020 high. A break of support at 1.2819, Jun 28 low alters the picture.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 155.02 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 154.65 High May 27
• RES 2: 153.36 High May 31
• RES 1: 152.92 High Jul 6
• PRICE: 151.46 @ 05:04 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 148.48/146.50 20-day EMA / Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 144.72 Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: 142.56 Low Jun 17
• SUP 4: 140.67 Low Jun 16 and bear trigger

Bund futures traded higher again yesterday and the contract maintains a short-term bullish tone. This follows the recent breach of resistance at 149.00 that has established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. The contract has also cleared the 50-day EMA. The focus is on 153.36, the May 31 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 144.72, the Jun 28 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Northbound

• RES 4: 127.160 High May 12
• RES 3: 126.879 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 126.710 High May 26
• RES 1: 126.560 High Jul 6
• PRICE: 125.640 @ 05:14 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 123.847 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 123.010 Low Jun 30
• SUP 3: 121.910 Low Jun 28
• SUP 4: 120.990 Low Jun 21

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and the contract traded higher again yesterday. The recent breach of resistance at 123.960, the Jun 24 high, confirmed a resumption of the current bullish corrective cycle and price has established a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 126.710, the May 26 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 121.190, Jun 28 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Bullish Price Activity

• RES 4: 110.412 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 110.256 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 110.063 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 110.005 High Jul 6
• PRICE: 109.665 @ 05:19 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 109.009 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 108.760/425 Low Jun 30 / Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: 108.025 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 107.705 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger

Bullish short-term conditions in Schatz futures remain intact and the contract traded higher again yesterday. Resistance at 109.030, the Jun 24 high, has recently been cleared This marks an extension of a corrective cycle and price has established a bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 110.063, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 108.425, the Jun 28 low.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 118.63 High May 24
• RES 3: 118.16 1.382 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 2: 117.48 1.236 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 1: 117.09 High Jul 6
• PRICE: 115.95 @ Close Jul 6
• SUP 1: 114.28/113.03 20-day EMA / Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 111.72 Low Jun 29 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 110.57 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 109.89 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures outlook remains bullish. Gains last week confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16 - price has cleared resistance at 114.55, the Jun 24 high. Last Friday’s rally also signals an acceleration of the current uptrend and the contract has crossed the 116.00 handle. This opens 117.48 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 111.72, the Jun 29 low.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.00 High May 12
• RES 2: 127.79 High May 26
• RES 1: 126.41 High Jul 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 125.17 @ Close Jul 6
• SUP 1: 122.47/119.81 20-day EMA / Low Jun 28 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 3: 115.72 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 113.78 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger

BTP futures short-term trend conditions remain bullish Last week’s gains reinforce this theme - price breached resistance at 122.80, the Jun 24 high. The break suggests potential for a stronger short-term correction and attention is on 127.79 the May 26 high. Initial key support to watch is at 119.81, the Jun 28 low. A break of this level would instead signal a potential short-term top and the end of the current corrective cycle.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Bear Trigger Cleared

• RES 4: 3774.00 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 3689.00 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 3586.90 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3494.20/3584.00 20-day EMA / High Jun 27
• PRICE: 3446.00 @ 05:54 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3321.30 50.0% retracement the major 2020 - 2021 upleg
• SUP 3: 3300.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3241.70 1.382 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures have recovered from Tuesday’s low. Gains are likely corrective and the trend outlook remains bearish. This week’s breach of support at 3384.00, the Jun 16 low, reinforces bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend. This has opened 3321.30, 50.0% of the major 2020 - 2021 upleg. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 3584.00, the Jun 27 high.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 4308.50 High Apr 28
• RES 3: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 3991.94 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3950.00 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 3859.50 @ 07:00 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 3735.00/3639.00 Low Jun 23 / 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 3500.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3384.75 0.764 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis remains above recent lows. The contract remains vulnerable though following last week’s bearish cycle and reversal from 3950.00, the Jun 28 high. The next support lies at 3735.00, the Jun 23 low. A breach of this level would expose key support at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 3950.00 is required to reinstate a bullish theme. This would open the 50-day EMA, currently at 3991.94.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U2) Conditions Remain Bearish

• RES 4: $118.12 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $116.24 - High Jun 29
• RES 2: $109.28/114.75 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 5
• RES 1: $104.35 Low Jun 22
• PRICE: $101.18 @ 05:36 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: $98.50 - Low Jul 6 and the intraday low
• SUP 2: $97.25 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 3: $95.92 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: $95.13 - Low Mar 29

Brent futures have faced strong selling pressure this week and conditions remain bearish. Support at $104.35, the Jun 22 low and a short-term bear trigger, has been cleared. This has strengthened bearish conditions and established a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs on the daily chart. The focus is on $97.25 next, the Apr 25 low low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $116.24, the Jun 29 high.

WTI TECHS: (Q2) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: $116.58 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $114.05 - High Jun 29 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: $106.88 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 5
• RES 1: $102.14 - High Jul 6
• PRICE: $98.72 @ 06:49 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: $95.10 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: $93.45 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 3: $90.13 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 14 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 4: $86.81 - Low Mar 15

A sharp sell-off in WTI futures this week reinforces current bearish conditions and signals scope for a continuation lower. The sell-off resulted in a break of support at $101.53, the Jun 22 low and a short-term bear trigger. This signals scope for weakness towards $93.45 next, the Apr 25 low and beyond. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $114.05, the Jun 29 high.

GOLD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: $1878.4 - High Jun 13
• RES 3: $1854.3 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 2: $1814.4/41.6 - 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $17787.0 - Low May 16 and recent breakout level
• PRICE: $1765.3@ 09:44 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: $1732.3 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 2021
• SUP 3: $1706.3 - 1.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $1680.5 - 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Gold has traded sharply lower this week and in the process confirmed a breach of key short-term support and the bear trigger at $1787.00, the May 16 low. The break lower confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend and sets the scene for weakness towards $1706.3 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in bear mode, reinforcing the current trend direction. Initial resistance is at $1787.0.

SILVER TECHS: Path Of Least Resistance Remains Down

• RES 4: $21.967 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $21.678 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $20.747 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $20.464 - Low May 13 and recent breakout level
• PRICE: $19.345 @ 07:24 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: $18.928 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: $18.693 - 61.8% retracement of Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $18.447 - 2.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $18.250 - Low Jul 8 2020

The Silver outlook remains bearish and the metal has resumed its bear leg this week. This marks an extension of the current bearcycle that started Jun 6 and an extension of the downtrend that has been in place since early February 2021. The metal has also cleared the $20.00 handle and sights are on $18.693 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The 20-day EMA, at $20.747 marks a key short-term resistance.