MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Parity Within Reach for EUR/USD

Price Signal Summary – Parity Within Reach for EUR/USD

• S&P E-Minis traded higher last week and price remains above recent lows. The outlook is bearish though following the reversal from 3950.00, the Jun 28 high. The next support lies at 3735.00, the Jun 23 low. A breach of this level would expose key support at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures recovered last week from 3343.00, the Jul 5 low. Gains are considered corrective and the trend outlook remains bearish. Last week’s breach of support at 3384.00, Jun 16 low, reinforces bearish conditions
• EURUSD trend conditions remain bearish and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent lows. Weakness last week resulted in a break of 1.0350, May 13 low, to confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend. USDJPY has traded higher today and breached resistance at 137.00, the Jun 29 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and signals scope for an extension. AUDUSD remains closer to its recent lows and trend conditions remain bearish This follows the recent breach of 0.6829, May 12 low. The break strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started February 2021.
• Gold traded sharply lower last week and in the process confirmed a breach of key short-term support and the bear trigger at $1787.00, the May 16 low. The break marks a resumption of the broader downtrend and sets the scene for weakness towards $1706.8 next, a Fibonacci projection. A sharp sell-off in WTI futures last week strengthens current bearish conditions and signals scope for a continuation lower. The move lower resulted in a break of support at $101.53, Jun 22 low and a short-term bear trigger.
• Bund futures continue to trade below recent highs but maintain a short-term bullish tone. This follows recent gains that resulted in a breach of resistance at 149.00, establishing a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching Parity

• RES 4: 1.0615 High Jun 27 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0556 Bull channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 2: 1.0359/0414 Low Jun 15 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0221 High Jul 7
• PRICE: 1.0149 @ 06:02 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: 1.0072 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 1.0009 Bear channel base drawn from the Feb 10 high
• SUP 3: 1.0000 Parity and a key psychological support
• SUP 4: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD trend conditions remain bearish and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent lows. Weakness last week resulted in a break of 1.0350, May 13 low, to confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend. The move lower also highlights an acceleration of the bear cycle. The focus is on 1.0009, the base of a channel drawn from the Feb 10 high, just ahead of parity. Firm resistance is seen at 1.0414, 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.2495 76.4% retracement of the May 27 - Jun 14 downleg
• RES 3: 1.2406 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 1: 1.2125/2167 High Jul 5 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1989 @ 06:25 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: 1.1846 0.764 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.1795 0.764 proj of the Mar 23 - May 13 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1777 Low Mar 26 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing

Trend conditions in GBPUSD remain bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of a bear trigger at 1.1934, Jun 14 low. The breach of this support reinforces bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The focus is on 1.1795 next, a Fibonacci projection. Weakness through here would open the Mar 26 2020 lows of 1.1777. Firm resistance is at 1.2167, 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 3: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Jun 15 / bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8627/79 High Jul 4 / High Jul 1
• RES 1: 0.8530 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8467 @ 06:30 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: 0.8441 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 0.8393 Low May 17 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8367 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 0.8313 Low Apr 22

EURGBP traded sharply lower on Jul 7 and in the process, cleared a key support area around the 50-day EMA. The move lower reverses a recent bullish theme and short-term bearish conditions suggest scope for a deeper retracement. Potential is seen for a move towards support at 0.8393, the May 17 low. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 0.8530, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA is required to ease the current bearish threat.

USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 138.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 138.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 137.30 1.50 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• PRICE: 137.04 @ 06:40 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: 135.92/134.27 Intraday low / Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 132.90 Bull channel base from the Mar 4 low
• SUP 3: 131.50 Low Jun 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support

USDJPY has traded higher today and breached resistance at 137.00, the Jun 29 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and signals scope for an extension. The fresh cycle high also highlights the fact that corrections remain shallow, reinforcing underlying bullish conditions. The focus is on 137.30 and 138.56, Fibonacci projections. Firm short-term support lies at 134.27, the Jun 23 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 144.28 High Jun 28 and key resistance
• RES 3: 142.37 High Jul 5
• RES 2: 140.55 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 139.50 High Jul 6
• PRICE: 139.12 @ 06:45 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: 136.87 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 136.63 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 136.25 Low May 30
• SUP 4: 135.40 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 28 climb

The EURJPY outlook remains bearish following the recent reversal from 144.28, the Jun 28 high. The sell-off resulted in a move below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and delivered a print below support at 137.85. A clear breach of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and open 136.25, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 140.55, the 20-day EMA ahead of 142.37, the July 5 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 0.7138 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 0.0.7017/69 50-day EMA / High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6910/6964 20-day EMA / High Jun 28
• PRICE: 0.6812 @ 06:57 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: 0.6762 Low Jul 5 / 6
• SUP 2: 0.6759 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘ 21 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 0.6685 High Mar 9 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD remains closer to its recent lows and trend conditions remain bearish This follows the recent breach of 0.6829, May 12 low. The break strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started February 2021. The move lower also maintains a broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 0.6759 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.6964, high Jun 28.

USDCAD TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3300 High Nov 4 2020
• RES 3: 1.3192 1.00 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3113 High Nov 23 2020
• RES 1: 1.3084 High Jul 5
• PRICE: 1.2983 @ 07:03 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: 1.2936 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 1.2908 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2840/19 50-day EMA / Low Jun 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.2763 Low Jun 13

USDCAD remains bullish despite last week’s pullback. The pair rallied sharply higher on Jul 5 and this reinforced short-term bullish conditions. Key support around the 50-day EMA has remained intact - the average intersects at 1.2840. Last week’s climb resulted in a print above resistance at 1.3079, the May 17 high and a bull trigger. A clear break would strengthen bullish conditions and open 1.3113, Nov 23 2020 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 155.01 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 154.65 High May 27
• RES 2: 153.36 High May 31
• RES 1: 152.92 High Jul 6
• PRICE: 149.91 @ 05:07 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: 148.81/146.50 20-day EMA / Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 144.72 Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: 142.56 Low Jun 17
• SUP 4: 140.67 Low Jun 16 and bear trigger

Bund futures continue to trade below recent highs but maintain a short-term bullish tone. This follows recent gains that resulted in a breach of resistance at 149.00, establishing a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. The contract has also cleared the 50-day EMA. A resumption of gains would open 153.36, the May 31 high. On the downside, key short-term support is unchanged at 144.72, the Jun 28 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 127.160 High May 12
• RES 3: 126.879 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 126.710 High May 26
• RES 1: 126.560 High Jul 6
• PRICE: 124.970 @ 05:12 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: 124.069 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 123.010 Low Jun 30
• SUP 3: 121.910 Low Jun 28 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 120.990 Low Jun 21

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The recent breach of resistance at 123.960, the Jun 24 high, confirmed a resumption of the current bullish corrective cycle and price has established a positive sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 126.710, the May 26 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 121.190, Jun 28 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 110.412 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 110.256 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 110.063 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 110.005 High Jul 6
• PRICE: 109.455 @ 05:22 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: 109.092 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 108.760/425 Low Jun 30 / Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: 108.025 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 107.705 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger

Bullish short-term conditions in Schatz futures remain intact and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. Resistance at 109.030, Jun 24 high, has recently been cleared This marks an extension of a corrective cycle and price has established a bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 110.063, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 108.425, the Jun 28 low.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 118.63 High May 24
• RES 3: 118.16 1.382 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 2: 117.48 1.236 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 1: 115.65/117.09 High Jul 7 / High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 114.44 @ Close Jul 8
• SUP 1: 114.08/113.03 Low Jul 8 / Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 111.72 Low Jun 29 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 110.57 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 109.89 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger

The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16 - price has cleared resistance at 114.55, the Jun 24 high. A resumption of gains would open 117.48 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 111.72, the Jun 29 low.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.00 High May 12
• RES 2: 127.79 High May 26
• RES 1: 126.41 High Jul 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 124.01 @ Close Jul 8
• SUP 1: 122.73/119.81 20-day EMA / Low Jun 28 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 3: 115.72 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 113.78 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger

BTP futures are in consolidation mode. The short-term trend condition remains bullish. Recent gains resulted in a breach of resistance at 122.80, the Jun 24 high. The break suggests potential for a stronger short-term correction and attention is on 127.79, the May 26 high. Initial key support to watch is 119.81, the Jun 28 low. A break of this level would instead signal a potential short-term top and the end of the current corrective cycle.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Remains Above Last week’s Low

• RES 4: 3774.00 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 3689.00 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 3584.00 High Jun 27 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 3504.00/3579.30 High Jul 8 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3456.00 @ 05:34 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3321.30 50.0% retracement the major 2020 - 2021 upleg
• SUP 3: 3300.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3241.70 1.382 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures recovered last week from 3343.00, the Jul 5 low. Gains are considered corrective and the trend outlook remains bearish. Last week’s breach of support at 3384.00, Jun 16 low, reinforces bearish conditions and highlights a resumption of the broader downtrend, opening 3321.30, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance is at 3584.00, the Jun 27 high. A break would alter the picture.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Bear Trend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4308.50 High Apr 28
• RES 3: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 3985.11 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3950.00 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 3873.25 @ 06:56 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: 3735.00/3639.00 Low Jun 23 / 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 3500.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3384.75 0.764 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis traded higher last week and price remains above recent lows. The outlook is bearish though following the reversal from 3950.00, the Jun 28 high. The next support lies at 3735.00, the Jun 23 low. A breach of this level would expose key support at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 3950.00 is required to reinstate a bullish theme. This would open the 50-day EMA, currently at 3985.11.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U2) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $118.12 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $116.24 - High Jun 29
• RES 2: $109.02/114.75 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 5
• RES 1: $107.70 Intraday high
• PRICE: $105.83 @ 06:59 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: $98.50 - Low Jul 6 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $97.25 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 3: $95.92 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: $95.13 - Low Mar 29

Brent futures remain vulnerable despite last week’s gains. The contract has recently cleared support at $104.35, the Jun 22 low and a short-term bear trigger. This has strengthened bearish conditions and established a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs on the daily chart. The focus is on $97.25 next, the Apr 25 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $116.24, the Jun 29 high.

WTI TECHS: (Q2) Bear Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: $116.58 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $114.05 - High Jun 29 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: $106.64/111.45 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 5
• RES 1: $105.24 - High Jul 8
• PRICE: $103.23 @ 07:08 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: $95.10 - Low Jul 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $93.45 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 3: $90.13 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 14 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 4: $86.81 - Low Mar 15

A sharp sell-off in WTI futures last week strengthens current bearish conditions and signals scope for a continuation lower. The move lower resulted in a break of support at $101.53, Jun 22 low and a short-term bear trigger. This signals scope for weakness towards $93.45 next, the Apr 25 low and beyond. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $114.05, the Jun 29 high. Short-term gains are considered corrective.

GOLD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: $1878.4 - High Jun 13
• RES 3: $1849.3 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 2: $1801.2/33.9- 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1787.0 - Low May 16 and recent breakout level
• PRICE: $1739.8 @ 07:14 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: $1732.3 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 2021
• SUP 3: $1706.8 - 1.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $1680.5 - 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Gold traded sharply lower last week and in the process confirmed a breach of key short-term support and the bear trigger at $1787.00, the May 16 low. The break marks a resumption of the broader downtrend and sets the scene for weakness towards $1706.8 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition, reinforcing the current trend direction. Initial resistance is at $1787.0.

SILVER TECHS: Path Of Least Resistance Still Down

• RES 4: $21.967 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $21.493 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $20.479 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $20.464 - Low May 13 and recent breakout level
• PRICE: $19.185 @ 07:21 BST Jul 11
• SUP 1: $18.928 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: $18.693 - 61.8% retracement of Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $18.447 - 2.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $18.250 - Low Jul 8 2020

Silver is consolidating. The outlook remains bearish following a resumption of the downtrend last week. This marks an extension of the current bear cycle that started Jun 6 and an extension of the broader downtrend that has been in place since early February 2021. The metal has also cleared the $20.00 handle and sights are on $18.693 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The 20-day EMA, at $20.602 marks a key short-term resistance.