MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Reversal Threat in Stocks
Price Signal Summary – Reversal Threat Still Present in Stocks
- Price action on Feb 3 in the S&P E-Minis contract continues to highlight a possible short-term reversal threat. If correct, it suggests that the latest bounce is a correction. A resumption of weakness would open 5892.37, a Fibonacci retracement point. The Eurostoxx 50 futures contract continues to appreciate. The move higher confirms once again, a resumption of the uptrend that started on Nov 21 ‘24. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up too, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
- GBPUSD has recovered from Tuesday’s low and attention is on 1.2550, the Feb 5 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a clear break of the 20- and 50-day EMAs and strengthen a bullish theme. USDJPY is holding on to this week’s gains. The move higher appears to be a correction - for now -and this is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 154.51, the 50-day EMA.USDCAD is trading in a tight range and at its recent lows. For now, the latest move down appears corrective and the primary uptrend remains intact. However, the pair has pierced a key support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low.
- A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal is trading closer to its recent highs. Recent gains once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. WTI futures have pulled back from Tuesday high and price is again trading below the 50-day EMA - at $72.17. Attention is on $70.43, the Feb 6 low. A clear break of this support would undermine a bullish theme and confirm a clear breach of the 50-day EMA.
- Bund futures traded lower Wednesday as the contract extends the pullback from the Feb 5 high. Price has traded through support at the 20-day EMA - at 132.63. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and sights are on 131.90. A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and the latest pullback appears corrective. Last week’s extension has reinforced current conditions. The contract has traded through 93.09, the Dec 20 high, and breached 93.64.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 6
- RES 3: 1.0594 Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 1.0442 High Feb 5
- PRICE: 1.0437 @ 06:08 GMT Feb 13
- SUP 1: 1.0272/0141 Low Feb 4 / 3 and the bear trigger.,
- SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0031 2.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.9947 76.4% of the Sep 28 ‘22 - Jul 18 ’23 bull leg
A short-term bull theme in EURUSD remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce this set-up. A candle formation on Feb 3 - a hammer - continues to signal a possible reversal. The pair has pierced a key resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.0426. A clear breach of the average would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for stronger recovery and open 1.0533, the Jan 27 high. Initial firm support lies at 1.0272, the Feb 4 low.
GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching Resistance
- RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19
- RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2550 High Feb 5 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.2496 @ 06:24 GMT Feb 13
- SUP 1: 1.2333/2249 Low Feb 11 / 3 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
- SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
GBPUSD has recovered from Tuesday’s low and attention is on 1.2550, the Feb 5 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a clear break of the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and strengthen a bullish theme. This would signal scope for a climb towards 1.2610, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support to watch has been defined at 1.2249, the Feb 3 low. Initial support lies at 1.2333, the Feb 11 low.
EURGBP TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8420 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8388 61.8% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8378 High Jan 6
- PRICE: 0.8352 @ 06:35 GMT Feb 13
- SUP 1: 0.8297/8248 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
- SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg
The recent move higher in EURGBP still appears to have undermined a bearish threat, however, the pullback from the Feb 6 high also highlights a developing bearish threat. 0.8378, the Jan 6 high, has been defined as a key short-term pivot resistance. Clearance of it would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a continuation lower would open 0.8248, the Feb 3 low and bear trigger.
USDJPY TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 156.75 High Jan 23
- RES 2: 155.89 High Feb 3
- RES 1: 154.51/80 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance / High Feb 12
- PRICE: 154.04 @ 07:06 GMT Feb 13
- SUP 1: 152.38/150.93 Low Feb 12 / Low Feb 07
- SUP 2: 149.69 Low Dec 9
- SUP 3: 148.65 Low Dec 3 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 4: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24
USDJPY is holding on to this week’s gains. The move higher appears to be a correction - for now -and this is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 154.51, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear breach of the average would highlight a stronger reversal of the Jan 10 - Feb 7 bear leg. This would open 155.89, the Feb 3 high. Key support and bear trigger is unchanged at 150.93, the Feb 7 low.
EURJPY TECHS: Testing Key Resistance
- RES 4: 164.08 High Jan 24
- RES 3: 162.71 76.4% retracement of the Dec 30 - Feb 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 162.49 High Jan 29
- RES 1: 161.06/09 50-day EMA / Intraday high
- PRICE: 160.80@ 07:36 GMT Feb 13
- SUP 1: 157.90/155.61 Low Feb 12 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY has traded sharply higher this week. The recovery appears corrective for now and has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key near-term resistance is 161.06, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension towards 162.71, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, reversal lower would refocus attention on 155.61, the Feb 10 low and bear trigger.
AUDUSD TECHS: Key Resistance Levels Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 0.6331 High Jan 24 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6300/09 50-day EMA / High Feb 12
- PRICE: 0.6282 @ 07:55 GMT Feb 13
- SUP 1: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6000 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.5931 1.764 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD is unchanged and continues to trade in a tight range. Despite recent gains, the trend structure remains bearish. Key resistance is at 0.6300 (pierced), the 50-day EMA, and 0.6331, the Jan 24 high. A clear break of both levels is required to highlight a stronger reversal. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 0.6088, the Feb 3 low, and the bear trigger.
USDCAD TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 1.5000 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
- RES 2: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
- RES 1: 1.4600/1.4793 Round number resistance / High Feb 3
- PRICE: 1.4284 @ 08:12 GMT Feb 13
- SUP 1: 1.4255 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.4178 High Nov 6 ‘24
- SUP 3: 1.4107 38.2% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
USDCAD is trading in a tight range and at its recent lows. For now, the latest move down appears corrective and the primary uptrend remains intact. However, the pair has pierced a key support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. A clear break of this level would undermine a bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 1.4178, the Nov 26 ‘24 high. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 1.4793, the Feb 3 high.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (H5) Retracement Extends
- RES 4: 134.94 High Dec 17
- RES 3: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 134.29 High Dec 20
- RES 1: 133.00/71 50-day EMA / High Feb 5
- PRICE: 132.36 @ 05:46 GMT Feb 13
- SUP 1: 131.90/62 Trendine drawn from the Jan 15 low / Low Jan 31
- SUP 2: 131.00 Low Jan 16 / 24
- SUP 3: 131.00/130.28 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)
Bund futures traded lower Wednesday as the contract extends the pullback from the Feb 5 high. Price has traded through support at the 20-day EMA - at 132.63. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and sights are on 131.90, a trendline drawn from the Jan 15 low. A key support lies at 131.00, the Jan 16 / 24 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 133.71, the Feb 5 high. A break of it would resume the recent bull cycle.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Pullback Extends
- RES 4: 118.310 High Dec 20
- RES 3: 118.27 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 118.100 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 117.578/980 50-day EMA / High Feb 3 / 5
- PRICE: 117.310 @ 06:03 GMT Feb 13
- SUP 1: 117.190 Low Feb 12
- SUP 2: 116.952 Trendline drawn from Jan 15 low
- SUP 3: 116.550 Low Jan 24
- SUP 4: 116.280 Low Jan 14 / 15 and key support
Bobl futures remain in a short-term bull cycle despite this week’s pullback. However, the contract has traded through support at the 20-day EMA - at 117.412. A continuation lower would expose a trendline support, drawn from the Jan 15 low, at 116.952. Clearance of the trendline would strengthen a bearish threat. The bull trigger has been defined at 117.980, the Feb 3 / 5 high. A breach of this level resumes the recent uptrend.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Pullback Appears Corrective
- RES 4: 107.170 High Dec 20
- RES 3: 107.081 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 15 bear leg
- RES 2: 107.045 High Jan 3
- RES 1: 106.857/975 50-day EMA / High Feb 10
- PRICE: 106.765 @ 06:14 GMT Feb 13
- SUP 1: 106.705 Low Feb 12
- SUP 2: 106.600 Low Jan 31
- SUP 3: 106.515 Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: 106.435 Low Jan 15 and key support
A bull cycle that began Jan 15 in Schatz futures remains in play, and the pullback from the early February highs appears corrective - for now. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 107.045, the Feb 3 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the short-term uptrend. On the downside, a continuation lower would instead open 106.600 next, the Jan 31 low.
GILT TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 95.57 High Dec 11 ‘24
- RES 3: 95.11 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 2: 94.75 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 94.35 High Feb 6 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 92.45 @ Close Feb 13
- SUP 1: 91.96/91.52 Low Jan 29 / 24
- SUP 2: 91.10 Low Jan 20
- SUP 3: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 88.87 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and the latest pullback appears corrective. Last week’s extension has reinforced current conditions. The contract has traded through 93.09, the Dec 20 high, and breached 93.64, the 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg. Sights are on the 94.75, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm support at 92.61, the 20-day EMA, has been breached. The next firm support to watch lies at 91.52, the Jan 24 low.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Corrective Pullback Extends
- RES 4: 123.34 High Dec 11
- RES 3: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 120.98/121.00 61.8% of Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg / High Feb 7
- PRICE: 119.69 @ Close Feb 12
- SUP 1: 119.59 Low Feb 3
- SUP 2: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 4: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
A bullish cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. Price has recently traded above both the 20- and 50- day EMAs. This signals scope for an extension of the upleg and sights are on 120.98 (pierced) and 121.88, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would highlight a reversal and the end of the corrective bull cycle.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Approaching The All-Time High
- RES 4: 5528.87 2.236 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
- RES 3: 5525.00 March 2000 all-time high
- RES 2: 5500.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5483.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 5480.00 @ 06:30 GMT Feb 13
- SUP 1: 5371.00/5259.86 Low Feb 12 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5129.27 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 4991.00 Low Jan 15
- SUP 4: 4931.00 Low Jan 13 and a key short-term support
The Eurostoxx 50 futures contract continues to appreciate. The move higher confirms once again, a resumption of the uptrend that started on Nov 21 ‘24. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on a major resistance at 5525.00, the March 2000 all-time high. Clearance of this level would highlight a key bullish break. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5243.32, the 20-day EMA.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6162.25 High Jan 24
- RES 2: 6147.75 High Jan 31
- RES 1: 6123.25 High Feb 7
- PRICE: 6083.00 @ 07:17 GMT Feb 13
- SUP 1: 6014.00/5935.50 Low Feb 10 / 3
- SUP 2: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5842.50 Low Jan 14
- SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a key resistance
Price action on Feb 3 in the S&P E-Minis contract continues to highlight a possible short-term reversal threat. If correct, it suggests that the latest bounce is a correction. A resumption of weakness would open 5892.37, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, a stronger rally would expose key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (J5) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $85.20 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 9 - Oct 7 - 29 price swing
- RES 3: $83.97 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 2: $83.28 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $77.34/81.20 - High Feb 3 / 15 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $74.44 @ 07:06 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: $74.10 - Low Feb 6
- SUP 2: $71.25 - Low Dec 20
- SUP 3: $70.26 - Low Dec 6
- SUP 4: $69.65 - Low Oct 29 and a key support
Brent futures have reversed lower and the contract is once again trading below the 50-day EMA, and approaching support at $74.10, the Feb 6 low. A clear break of this level would undermine a bullish theme and instead highlight a stronger reversal, signalling scope for a deeper pullback, towards $71.25, the Dec 20 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $77.34, the Feb 3 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a bullish development.
WTI TECHS: (H5) Bear Threat
- RES 4: $83.40 - 76.4% retrace of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg (cont)
- RES 3: $81.26 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 2: $80.63 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 1: $75.18/79.48 - High Feb 3 / High Apr 12 ‘24
- PRICE: $70.69 @ 07:15 GMT Feb 13
- SUP 1: $70.43 - Low Feb 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $68.05 - Low Dec 20 ‘24
- SUP 3: $66.55 - Low Dec 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $65.80 - Low Oct 29 ‘24 and a key support
WTI futures have pulled back from Tuesday high and price is again trading below the 50-day EMA - at $72.17. Attention is on $70.43, the Feb 6 low. A clear break of this support would undermine a bullish theme and confirm a clear breach of the 50-day EMA. This would strengthen a bearish threat and open $68.05, the Dec 20 ‘24 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $75.18. A move above this level is required to reinstate a bull theme.
GOLD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 2: $2955.7 - 4.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: $2942.7 - High Feb 11
- PRICE: $2916.0 @ 07:20 GMT Feb 13
- SUP 1: $2852.7 - Low Feb 7
- SUP 2: $2809.2 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2737.9 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $2689.5 - Low Jan 20
A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal is trading closer to its recent highs. Recent gains once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2809.2, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.450 - 76.4% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 2: $33.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $32.652 - High Feb 7
- PRICE: $32.254 @ 08:14 GMT Feb 13
- SUP 1: $30.951 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $29.704 - Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
Key resistance in Silver at $32.338, the Dec 12 high, has recently been pierced. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight a stronger reversal and cancel a recent bearish theme. This would open the $33.00 handle and expose $33.450, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support lies at $30.951, the 50-day EMA and a pivot level. A clear break of the EMA would reinstate the recent bearish theme.