MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P Back Above 50-Day EMA

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Climbs Above The 50-Day EMA

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis traded higher yesterday, extending the reversal of Monday's sharp sell-off and the bounce from that day's 4293.75 low. The contract has cleared a key short-term resistance at 4418.00, Sep 20 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded down to 3974.00 on Sep 20. The contract has since recovered though and continues to push higher.
• In FX, EURUSD maintains a bearish theme despite yesterday's corrective bounce. The bear leg that started Sep 9 has cleared 1.1770, Sep 13 low and 1.1758, 61.8% of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally. GBPUSD reversed higher Thursday. The strong bounce leaves a key support at 1.3602 unchallenged, Aug 20 low. Recent gains in the USD Index (DXY) have exposed key resistance at 93.73, Aug 20 high and the bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started May 25.
• On the commodity front, Gold traded lower yesterday confirming a print below former support at $1742.3, Sep 20 low. This also confirms a resumption of the current S/T bear cycle and signals scope for a move towards $1742.5, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally. WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook. Tuesday's price pattern was a bullish doji candle, reinforcing current bull trend conditions.
• In FI, Bund futures resumed their downtrend yesterday breaking below former support at 170.81, Sep 17 low. This maintains the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs and signals scope for an extension lower. Gilt futures traded sharply lower Thursday following the BOE announcement. The contract has cleared support at 126.83, 2.00 projection of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing and 126.70, Jun 3 low (cont).

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Eyeing Key Support

• RES 4: 1.1909 High Jul 30 / Sep 03 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.1879 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1846 High Sep 14
• RES 1: 1.1772 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1737 @ 06:13 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 1.1684 Low Sep 23
• SUP 2: 1.1664 Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1621 1.00 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD maintains a bearish theme despite yesterday's corrective bounce. The bear leg that started Sep 9 has cleared 1.1770, Sep 13 low and 1.1758, 61.8% of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally. This week's extension lower has also resulted in a breach of 1.1722, the 76.4% retracement and opens key support at 1.1664, Aug 20 low and an important bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.1772, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bounce Leaves Triangle Base Intact

• RES 4: 1.3983/90 High Jul 30 / 61.8% of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
• RES 3: 1.3958 High Aug 4
• RES 2: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and the intraday bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3755 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3720 @ 06:16 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 1.3635/02 Triangle base drawn from Jul 20 low / Low Aug 20
• SUP 2: 1.3572 Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3520 Low Jan 18
• SUP 4: 1.3462 50.0% retracement of the Sep '20 - Jun rally

GBPUSD reversed higher Thursday. The strong bounce leaves a key support at 1.3602 unchallenged, Aug 20 low. Furthermore, it also means triangle support at 1.3635 remains intact despite being probed Wednesday and Thursday. The move higher opens resistance at 1.3755, the 20-day EMA. On the downside, a clear break of 1.3635-02 is required to reinstate bearish pressure.

EURGBP TECHS: Stalls Ahead Of key Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8659 High Jul 21
• RES 2: 0.8614/18 High Sep 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 20 - Aug 10 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.8613 High Sep 22 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8555 @ 06:20 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 0.8530 Sep 20 low
• SUP 2: 0.8502/01 76.4% of the Aug 10 - Sep 7 rally / Low Sep 16
• SUP 3: 0.8484 Low Aug 16
• SUP 4: 0.8467/50 1.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Aug 10

EURGBP traded lower yesterday. The cross has failed to challenge key resistance at 0.8614, Sep 7 high. Further weakness would open initial support at 0.8530, Sep 20 low ahead of the key short-term support at 0.8501, the Sep 16 low. A breach of this level would open 0.8484, Aug 16 low and 0.8450, Aug 10 low and the bear trigger. For bulls, clearance of 0.8614 is required to highlight a firmer bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 111.66 High Jul 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 111.19 High Jul 5
• RES 2: 110.80 High Aug 11 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 110.45/46 High Sep 8 / High Aug 13
• PRICE: 110.45 @ 06:28 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 109.82/11 20-day EMA / Low Aug 16 / Sep 15
• SUP 2: 108.72 Low Aug 04 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 4: 108.47 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally

USDJPY is firmer and is holding onto the strong reversal from Wednesday's low. The pair is testing resistance at 110.45/46, the Sep 8 and Aug 9 high respectively. A break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish case and expose a firmer resistance at 110.80, Aug 11 high. Clearance of 110.80 would signal scope for a stronger recovery near-term. Key short-term support is unchanged at 109.11, Aug 16 / Sep 15.

EURJPY TECHS: Strong Bounce

• RES 4: 131.09 High Jul 13
• RES 3: 130.37/75 1.0% 10-dma envelope / High Sep 3 bull trigger
• RES 2: 130.20 High Sep 14 high
• RES 1: 129.71 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 129.65 @ 06:34 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 127.94/93 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger / Intrada low
• SUP 2: 127.88 50.0% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jan rally
• SUP 3: 127.50 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 126.40 61.8% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jun rally

EURJPY traded sharply higher yesterday following a failure Wednesday to confirm a clear break of support at 127.94, Aug 19 low. An extension higher would signal scope for gains above the 130.00 handle and expose key short-term resistance at 130.75, Sep 3 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, the cross needs to clear support at 127.94/93 to highlight a resumption of the downtrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Holding Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: 0.7478 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7410 High Sep 10
• RES 2: 0.7356 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7316 High Sep 23 and intraday high
• PRICE: 0.7294 @ 06:48 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 0.7220 Low Sep 20
• SUP 2: 0.7194 76.4% retracement of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 3: 0.7106 Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.7053 38.2% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb uptrend

AUDUSD rebounded Thursday and is testing the 20-day EMA. This bounce needs to stick to reverse the near-term downtrend which for now remains intact and continues to target 0.7220 ahead of Fibonacci support at 0.7194. The bear trigger rests below at 0.7106, Aug 20 low - a break would confirm a resumption of the bear trend that started late February. Firm resistance is seen at 0.7356, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.2976 1.00 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2957 High Dec 21, 2020
• RES 2: 1.2949 High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2796/2896 High Sep 23 / High Sep 20
• PRICE: 1.2673 @ 06:51 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 1.2607 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2583 Low Sep 10
• SUP 3: 1.2494 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2422 Jul 30 low and a key support

USDCAD traded lower yesterday and has moved further away from its recent Sep 20 high of 1.2896. A bullish price structure remains intact despite this pullback and the move lower is considered corrective. Support at the 50-day EMA intersects at 1.2607, a clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback. For bulls, a reversal higher and a resumption of gains would again refocus attention on the key resistance at 1.2949, Aug 20 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Bear Trend Resumes

• RES 4: 172.76 High Sep 2 and 3
• RES 3: 172.48 High Sep 9
• RES 2: 172.12 High Sep 14
• RES 1: 171.96 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 170.44 @ 05:22 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 170.29 100 proj of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing
• SUP 2: 170.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 169.90 1.236 proj of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 169.46 1.382 proj of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing

Bund futures resumed their downtrend yesterday breaking below former support at 170.81, Sep 17 low. This maintains the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs and signals scope for an extension lower. The focus is on 170.29, a Fibonacci projection ahead of the 170.00 handle. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 171.96, Sep 21 high. A break of this level is required to ease bearish pressure.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Trades Through Recent Support

• RES 4: 135.870 High Sep 3
• RES 4: 135.660 High Sep 7 / 9
• RES 3: 135.540 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.200 Low Sep 17 and recent breakout level
• PRICE: 135.030 @ 05:32 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 135.000 Round number support
• SUP 2: 134.983 2.618 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 134.924 2.764 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 134.830 3.00 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing

Bobl futures resumed bearish activity yesterday as a sharp sell-off saw price trade through former support at 135.200, Sep 17 low. This maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that defines a downtrend and signals scope for an extension lower. The focus is on 134.983 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 135.540, Sep 21 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Price Sequence

• RES 4: 112.340 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 112.305 High Sep 3
• RES 2: 112.290 High Sep 20 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 112.264 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 112.195 @ 05:32 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 112.190 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 2: 112.183 2.618 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 112.174 2.764 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 112.159 61.8% retracement of the May - Aug rally (cont)

Schatz futures resumed bearish activity yesterday. The contract has traded below former support at 112.215, Sep 9 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that defines a downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension lower with the focus on 112.190 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key S/T resistance has been defined at 112.290, Sep 20 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Heavy!

• RES 4: 128.42 High Sep 7
• RES 3: 128.18 High Sep 10, 14
• RES 2: 127.69 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 126.84 Low Sep 17 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 126.45 @ Close Sep 23
• SUP 1: 126.28 2.50 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 2: 126.14 2.618 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 125.98 2.764 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing

Gilt futures traded sharply lower Thursday following the BOE announcement. The contract has cleared support at 126.83, 2.00 projection of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing and 126.70, Jun 3 low (cont). The move lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started early August. The focus is on 126.28 and 126.14 next, Fibonacci projections. A firm short-term resistance has been established at 127.69, Sep 21 high.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 155.71 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger (cont)
• RES 3: 155.68 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 155.14 High Aug 31 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23
• PRICE: 153.74 @ Close Sep 23
• SUP 1: 153.36 Low Sep 17
• SUP 2: 152.94/84 Low Sep 9 / 50.0% of Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)
• SUP 3: 152.66 Low Jul 15 (cont)
• SUP 4: 152.16 61.8% retracement of the Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)

BTP futures trend conditions remain bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. A price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that highlights a bearish theme is intact and the focus is on 152.84 next, a Fibonacci retracement and below. On the upside, a resumption of gains would open resistance at 155.14, Aug 31 high. The bear trigger is unchanged at 152.94, Sep 7 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Approaching The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4223.00 High Sep 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4234.50 0.764 projection of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: 4200.50 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4169.50 @ 06:08 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 4116.30 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3974.00 Low Sep 20
• SUP 3: 3962.50 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 rally
• SUP 4: 3941.50 Low Jul 21

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded down to 3974.00 on Sep 20. The contract has since recovered though and continues to push higher. Importantly, price has traded above resistance at 4184.00 Sep 17 high paving the way for a test and a break of key resistance at 4223.00, Sep 6 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend. Key support is unchanged at 3974.00.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Trades Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4539.50 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4519.75 High Sep 9
• RES 3: 4478.50 High Sep 16
• RES 1: 4455.00 High Sep 23
• PRICE: 4436.75 @ 07:09 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 4293.75 Low Sep 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4243.50 Low Jul 20
• SUP 3: 4214.50 Low Jul 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: 4117.00 Low Jun 21

S&P E-minis traded higher yesterday, extending the reversal of Monday's sharp sell-off and the bounce from that day's 4293.75 low. The contract has cleared a key short-term resistance at 4418.00, Sep 20 high. The break suggests the tide has turned and signals scope for a stronger recovery. Note too that the price is back above the 50-day day EMA and this is a positive development. 4293.75 remains the key support and bear trigger.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X1) Trending Higher

• RES 4: $80.37 1.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 3: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $78.13 - 0.764 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 1: $77.74 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $77.51 @ 07:05 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: $75.60 Low Sep 23
• SUP 2: $73.26 - Low Sep 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $70.88 Low Sep 9
• SUP 4: $69.77/$68.13 - Low Aug 26 / Low Aug 24

Brent futures continue to trend higher. Tuesday's price formation was a doji candle, signalling scope for a resumption of gains and the contract has this week breached 76.13, Sep 15 high to resume its uptrend. The move higher paves the way for a climb towards $78.13 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at $73.26, Sep 21 low. A break would signal a short-term top.

WTI TECHS: (X1) Probes The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: $76.16 - 0.764 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 3: $75.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $74.08 - 0.764 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 1: $73.66 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $73.38@ 07:12 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: $71.61 - Low sep 21
• SUP 2: $69.39 - Low Sep 21 and key support
• SUP 3: $67.35 - Low Sep 9 and key support
• SUP 4: $67.15 - Low Aug 24

WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook. Tuesday's price pattern was a bullish doji candle, reinforcing current bull trend conditions. The subsequent rally has resulted in a print above resistance at $73.58, the Jul 6 high and a bull trigger. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for gains towards $74.08 initially, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is unchanged at $67.35, Sep 9 low.

GOLD TECHS: Resumes The Current Bear Cycle

• RES 4: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
• RES 3: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $1808.7 - High Sep 14
• RES 1: $1787.4 - High Sep 22 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: $1755.7 @ 07:22 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: $1738.0 - Low Sep 23
• SUP 2: $1724.5 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 3: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1678.00 Low Mar 31

Gold traded lower yesterday confirming a print below former support at $1742.3, Sep 20 low. This also confirms a resumption of the current S/T bear cycle and signals scope for a move towards $1742.5, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally. A breach of this level would open the key support at $1690.6 further out, Aug 9 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $1787.4, Sep 22 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

SILVER TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: $25.206 - High Jun 8
• RES 3: $24.867 - High Sep 3 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: $24.411 - High Sep 8
• RES 1: $23.349 - 20-Day EMA
• PRICE: $22.697 @ 07:51 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: $22.039 - Low Sep 20
• SUP 2: $21.899 - Low Nov 30, 2020
• SUP 3: $21.677 - Low Sep 24
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

Silver is consolidating. Trend conditions remain bearish following recent sharp losses that resulted in a breach of support at $22.626, Aug 9 low. The metal traded lower again Monday and note that a bearish theme was also recently reinforced following the failure to clear the 50-day EMA that continues to provide resistance. The focus is on $21.899 next, Nov 30, 2020 low. Key trend resistance has been defined at $24.867, Sep 3 high.