MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P E-Minis At Fresh All-Time Highs

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis At Fresh All-Time Highs

• On the equity front, S&P E-minis have extended their recovery and traded at fresh all-time highs. This confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and attention turns to the 4500.00 handle. EUROSTOXX 50 key support has been defined at 4078.00, Aug 19 low.
• In the FX space, the USD remains in an uptrend and current weakness is considered corrective. EURUSD last week cleared 1.1704, Mar 31 low. This signals scope for a move to 1.1621 next, 1.00 projection of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing. Firm resistance is at 1.1805, Aug 13 high. GBPUSD remains vulnerable despite yesterday's strong bounce. The focus is on the bear trigger at 1.3572, Jul 20 low. Resistance is at 1.3786, Aug 18 high. USDCAD stalled last week at 1.2949, Aug 20 high. Friday's price pattern is a bearish shooting star candle and yesterday's weak close reinforces the bearish pattern. An extension would expose 1.2603, the 20-day EMA and potentially 1.2509, the 50-day EMA.
• On the commodity front, Gold has cleared its 50-day EMA at $1796.50. The break signals scope for a climb towards $1834.1, Jul 15 high and a bull trigger. WTI futures support has been defined at $61.74, Aug 23 low. Note, yesterday's price action is a bullish engulfing reversal. Further gains would open $68.15, the 50-day EMA.
• In FI, Bunds support to watch is unchanged at 176.21, Aug 11 low. Trend conditions remain bullish. The bull trigger is 177.61, Aug 05 high. The Gilt futures outlook is bullish too and attention is on 130.72, Aug 4 high and the bull trigger. The support to watch is at 129.16, the 50-day EMA.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.1909 High Jul 30
• RES 3: 1.1839 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.11805/ High Aug 13 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.1764 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1741 @ 05:55 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 1.1664 Low Aug 20
• SUP 2: 1.1621 1.00 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1495 High Mar 9, 2020

EURUSD traded higher Monday starting the week on a firmer note. Gains however are considered corrective and trend conditions remain bearish. Last week saw the pair clear1.1704, Mar 31 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 1.1603 next, the Nov 4, 2020 low. Below here, the immediate post pandemic highs at 1.1495 would attract and also likely act as strong psychological and pivot support. Key S/T resistance is 1.1805.

GBPUSD TECHS: Holding Onto Recent Gains

• RES 4: 1.3983/90 High Jul 30 / 61.8% of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
• RES 3: 1.3916 High Aug 9
• RES 2: 1.3847 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3786 High Aug 18
• PRICE: 1.3724 @ 06:09 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 1.3602 Low Aug 20
• SUP 2: 1.3572 Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3520 Low Jan 18
• SUP 4: 1.3452 Low Jan 11

GBPUSD traded sharply higher Monday. Despite these gains, a bearish theme still dominates. This follows last week's sell-off that reinforced a bearish condition. Price remains below the 50-day EMA and attention is on the next key key support at 1.3572, Jul 20 low. For bulls, a convincing recovery back above the 50-day EMA at 1.3847 is required to ease the current bearish pressure. Initial resistance is at 1.3786, Aug 18 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Recent Gains Still Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8659 High Jul 21
• RES 2: 0.8618 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 10 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.8593/94 100-dma / High Aug 23
• PRICE: 0.8548 @ 06:15 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 0.8530/06 20-day EMA / Low Jul 19
• SUP 2: 0.8484/50 Low Aug 16 / Low Aug 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8433 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020

Last week EURGBP traded back above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The move signals scope for further gains near-term with the focus on the 100-dma next at 0.8593. The average was tested Monday. Gains are still considered corrective though and from a trend perspective, the outlook is bearish. A return lower and a break of initial firm support at 0.8506, Aug 19 low would signal a resumption of bearish pressure.

USDJPY TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: 111.66 High Jul 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 110.82 High Jul 7
• RES 2: 110.80 High Aug 11 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 110.46 High Aug 13
• PRICE: 109.79 @ 06:17 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 109.48 Low Aug 18 / 19
• SUP 2: 109.11/108.72 Low Aug 16 / Low Aug 04 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 4: 108.47 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally

USDJPY traded lower Monday but remains in a range. Despite a recent move higher, the pair still appears vulnerable and attention is on the key support at 108.72, Aug 4 low. A breach of this level would strengthen a bearish case and expose the 108.47 Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, key near-term resistance is unchanged at 110.80, Aug 11 high. A break would ease bearish concerns and instead open key resistance at 111.66, Jul 2 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Reading Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 131.09 High Jul 13
• RES 3: 130.56 High Jul 29
• RES 2: 129.71/130.01 High Aug 16 / High Aug 5
• RES 1: 129.14 Low Aug 8 / High Aug 23
• PRICE: 128.94 @ 06:21 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 127.94 Low Aug 19
• SUP 2: 127.88 38.2% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jun rally
• SUP 3: 127.31 Low Feb 17
• SUP 4: 126.44 Low Feb 9

EURJPY remains in a downtrend. Last week's key technical development was the break of 128.60, Jul 20 low. This confirms a resumption of the current downtrend paving the way for an extension of the bearish cycle. Note too that the move lower also confirmed a clear breach of the 200-dma. This signals scope for a move to 127.88, 38.2% of the Oct '20 - Jun rally. Initial firm resistance is at 129.71.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 0.7389 High Aug 11
• RES 3: 0.7341 High Aug 17
• RES 2: 0.7290 Low Jul 21 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 0.7250 High Aug 19
• PRICE: 0.7226 @ 06:25 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 0.7106 Low Aug 20
• SUP 2: 0.7053 38.2% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb uptrend
• SUP 3: 0.6991 Low Nov 2, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6921 Low Jul 14, 2020

AUDUSD traded higher Monday, starting the week on a firm note. Gains however are considered corrective. The breach of 0.7290 last week confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, reinforcing the current downward cycle. Price has also cleared 0.7200 and this opens 0.7053 further out, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is at 0.7290, low Jul 21.

USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Reversal

• RES 4: 1.3029 High Nov 25, 2020
• RES 3: 1.2976 1.00 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2957 High Dec 21, 2020
• RES 1: 1.2834/ 2949 High Aug 23 / High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2648 @ 06:27 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 1.2603 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2509 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2422 Jul 30 low
• SUP 4: 1.2303 Low Jul 6

USDCAD traded sharply lower Monday extending the pullback from Friday's high of 1.2949. From a pattern perspective, Friday's activity is a bearish shooting star candle. Monday's sell-off and particularly the weak close, reinforces this pattern and highlights a short-term reversal. An extension would expose 1.2603, the 20-day EMA and potentially 1.2509, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance has been defined at 1.2949.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 178.37 High Jan 4 (cont)
• RES 3: 178.12 High Jan 27
• RES 2: 177.69 1.764 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 1: 177.61 High Aug 05 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 176.87 @ 05:07 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 176.21 Low Aug 11
• SUP 2: 175.82/24 Low Jul 27 / Low Jul 22
• SUP 3: 175.28 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 174.77/45 High Jul 8 / Low Jul 15

Bund futures are still trading closer to recent highs. From a trend perspective, the outlook remains bullish with MA studies in a bull mode. Momentum has been in overbought territory recently however this does not appear to be a concern for bulls at this stage of the uptrend. Support is located at 176.21, Aug 11 low and a break would be bearish. The bull trigger is 177.61, Aug 5 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Support Intact

• RES 4: 136.642 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 4: 136.041 61.8% retracement of the March 2020 downleg
• RES 3: 135.700 High Dec 11, 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: 135.640 High Aug 05 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 135.340 @ 05:21 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 135.140 Low Aug 13
• SUP 2: 134.941 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 134.570 Low Jul 15
• SUP 4: 134.410 Low Jul 13 and a key support

Bobl futures are unchanged. The recent pullback between Aug 5 - 13 is considered corrective. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode and a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows continues to dominate, highlighting a bullish trend condition. Attention is on the Dec 11 2020 highs of 135.700 and the 136.041 Fibonacci retracement. Initial support is at 135.140, Aug 13 low. The bull trigger is unchanged 135.640, Aug 5 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 112.450 High Dec 11, 2020 (cont)
• RES 3: 112.425 2.618 proj of the Jun 22 - Jul 8 - Jul 13 price swing
• RES 2: 112.415 High Aug 05 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 112.360 High Aug 9
• PRICE: 112.330 @ 05:23 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 112.295 Low Aug 13 and 16
• SUP 2: 112.279 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 112.245 Low Jul 21
• SUP 4: 112.210 Low Jul 20

Schatz futures are unchanged and remain above recent lows. The contract recently probed the 20-day EMA and further weakness would open the 50-day EMA at 112.279. The broader uptrend remains intact though with moving average studies holding a bullish position and a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows intact. A resumption of strength would open the bull trigger at 112.415, Aug 8 high.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Eyeing The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 131.72 38.2% retracement of the Mar'20 - Jun'21 sell-off
• RES 3: 131.37 38.2% retracement of the Aug '20 - Jun sell-off
• RES 2: 130.72 High Aug 3 / 2.236 of the May 13-26-Jun 3 price swing
• RES 1: 130.46 200-dma (cont)
• PRICE: 130.13 @ Close Aug 23
• SUP 1: 129.22/129.19 Low Aug 6 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 128.54/39 Low Jul 14 / High Jun 11
• SUP 3: 128.03 Jul 6
• SUP 4: 127.87 Low Jul 1

Gilt futures outlook remains bullish. Recent gains stalled ahead of the 200-dma and the contract touched a high of 130.72 on Aug 4. The pullback that followed from 130.72 is considered corrective with key support at the 50-day EMA, currently at 129.19. The bull trigger is unchanged at 130.72 with the 200 dma at 130.46 (cont) also representing a key hurdle for bulls. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would alter the picture.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 157.53 1.382 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 3: 156.73 1.236 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 2: 156.02 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 1: 155.71 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 154.84 @ Close Aug 24
• SUP 1: 154.54 Low Aug 11
• SUP 2: 154.42 Bull channel base drawn off the May 19 low
• SUP 3: 153.54 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 151.93 High Jul 8

BTP futures traded lower yesterday but remains in its recent range. The trend is up with moving average studies holding a bull position. Furthermore, a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows continues to dominate. The recent high of 155.71 on Aug 5 marks the bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 156.02, a Bollinger band ceiling. Initial support lies at 154.54, the Aug 11 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Extending The Current Bounce

• RES 4: 4294.20 1.236 proj of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4271.30 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 4238.50 High Aug 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4200.60 76.4% retracement of the Aug 13 - 19 sell-off
• PRICE: 4178.50 @ 05:52 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 4078.00 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4026.20 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Aug 13 rally
• SUP 3: 3944.00 Low Jul 21
• SUP 4: 3895.00 Low Jul 19

EUROSTOXX 50 continues to retrace the recent sharp sell-off. At this stage, gains since Aug 19 suggest the sell-off between Aug 13 - 19 has been a correction and that this correction is over. A key support has been defined at 4078.00, Aug 19 low. While it holds, scope is seen for further short-term gains and a retest of 4238.50, the Aug 13 high and bull trigger. On the downside, a break of 4078.00 would instead be bearish.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Uptrend Resumes

• RES 4: 4580.21 1.382 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4542.58 1.236 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: 4500.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4492.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4486.50 @ 09:25 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: 4418.60 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4352.48 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4347.75 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4224.00 Low Jul 19 and key support

S&P E-minis outlook is bullish and the contract traded to a fresh all-time high yesterday of 4485.75. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The contract's recent recovery from 4347.75, Aug 19 low means the 50-day EMA remains intact. This average intersects at 4352.48 and represents a key support area. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to signal a short-term reversal. Bullish.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V1) Bullish Engulfing Candle

• RES 4: $75.65 - High Jul 30
• RES 3: $73.55 - High Aug 3
• RES 2: $70.73/71.90 - 50-day EMA / High Aug 12
• RES 1: $69.98 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $69.12 @ 06:48 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: $64.60 - Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: $63.89 - Low May 21 and a key support
• SUP 3: $63.43 - 1.236 proj of the Jul 6 - 20 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4: $62.71 - Low Apr 22

Brent futures rallied yesterday and have extended the climb today. The recovery has defined a key short-term support at $64.60, Aug 23 low where a break is required to reinstate a bearish theme. Short-term, the outlook appears bullish and yesterday's price pattern is a bullish engulfing candle. Further gains would open the 50-day EMA at $70.73. A break of the average would strengthen bullish conditions.

WTI TECHS: (V1) Reversal Higher

• RES 4: $71.29 - High Aug 3
• RES 3: $69.39 - High Aug 12 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: $68.15 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $67.35 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $5.91 @ 06:58 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: $61.74 - Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: $60.81 - 1.236 proj of the Jul 6 - 20 - 30 price swing
• SUP 3: $60.68 - Low May 21
• SUP 4: $59.56 - Low Apr 22

WTI futures rallied yesterday and are firmer today. The recovery from yesterday's low has defined a key short-term support at $61.74, Aug 23 low where a break is required to reinstate a bearish theme. Short-term, the outlook appears bullish and yesterday's price pattern is a bullish engulfing candle. Further gains would open the 50-day EMA at $68.15. A break of the average would strengthen bullish conditions.

GOLD TECHS: Clears The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1863.3 - High Jun 16
• RES 3: $1853.3 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 2: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $1806.5 - High Aug 23
• PRICE: $1803.7 @ 07:17 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: $1774.5 - Low Aug 19
• SUP 2: $1751.7 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 3: $1717.8 - Low Aug 10
• SUP 4: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger

Gold traded higher yesterday and in the process cleared the 50-day EMA at $1796.50. The break higher confirms a resumption of the upleg that started Aug 9. This signals scope for a climb towards resistance at $1834.1, Jul 15 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, initial support has been defined at $1774.5, Aug 19 low. A break of this level would be bearish and signal a short-term reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Bear Flag

• RES 4: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 3: $26.002 - High Aug 04 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.043 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $24.106 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $23.639 @ 07:22 BST Aug 24
• SUP 1: $22.626 - Low Aug 09 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $21.899 - Low Nov 30, 2020
• SUP 3: $20.871 - 50% retracement of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 rally
• SUP 4: $20.000 - Psychological round number

Silver traded higher yesterday but remains vulnerable. Moving average conditions continue to highlight a bearish theme and note too that price action since Aug 9, still appears to be a flag - a bearish formation. A break and close below the Aug 9 low of $22.626 would confirm a resumption of bearish pressure and open a key Fibonacci support at 20.871, 50% of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 range. The 20-day EMA at $24.106 marks resistance.