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MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P E Minis Firm Above 4,000

Price Signal Summary - S&P E Minis Firm Above 4000

In the equity space:

  • S&P E-minis needle continues to point north. The contract traded higher again Friday and is approaching 4124.75, 1.382 projection of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing.
  • EUROSTOXX 50 is consolidating but maintains a bullish tone with the focus on 4000.00. A break would open 4047.72, 2.236 projection of the Dec 21 - Jan 8 - Jan 28 price swing.

In the FX world, EURUSD maintains a short-term bullish tone despite pulling back from recent highs. The focus is on 1.1939, the 50-day EMA and a key resistance area. A clear break is required to suggest scope for an extension higher. The GBPUSD outlook remains bearish. Last week, the pair stalled at the former bull channel base drawn off the Nov 2 low. Resistance has been defined at 1.3919, Apr 6 high. The key support to watch and bear trigger is 1.3670, Mar 25 low. A brief test of this support this morning failed to result in a clear break. EURGBP maintains a short-term bull tone. Last week's gains resulted in the break of a key resistance zone at 0.8646, Mar 24 high and 0.8653, the 50-day EMA. This opens 0.8731, Feb 26 high. USDJPY traded lower last week as a corrective cycle extends. Support at 109.38, the 20-day EMA has been probed. A clear break would open 109.13, Mar 26 low.

On the commodity front:

Gold is holding onto the bulk of recent gains. Key resistance at $1755.5, Mar 18 high has been probed. The yellow metal also needs to clear $1759.2, the 50-day EMA to suggest scope for a stronger bounce.

  • Brent (M1) key directional triggers are unchanged. Resistance is at $65.39, Mar 29 high with key support at $60.33, Mar 23 low and the bear trigger.
  • WTI (K1) directional triggers are: Resistance at $62.27, Mar 30 high and support at $57.25, Mar 23 low and the bear trigger

In the FI space, key support to watch in Bunds (M1) remains 170.52, Mar 18 low. Key resistance is 172.66, Mar 25 high. The key support and bear trigger in Gilts (M1) is unchanged at 126.79, Mar 18 low. Initial firm resistance is at 128.93, Mar 25 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Consolidating Ahead Of Its 50-day EMA

  • RES 4: 1.2063 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 3: 1.1990 High Mar 11 and a key resistance
  • RES 2: 1.1938 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: 1.1927 High Apr 8
  • PRICE: 1.1888 @ 05:52 BST Apr 13
  • SUP 1: 1.1861 Low Apr 8
  • SUP 2: 1.1795 Low Apr 6
  • SUP 3: 1.1738 Low Apr 5
  • SUP 4: 1.1704/1695 Low Mar 31 / 38.2% of the Mar 2020 - Jan rally

EURUSD is consolidating. The pair moved higher last week and is once again trading within its bear channel range drawn off this year's Jan 6 high - the channel base was breached in March. Recent gains are still considered corrective though with the next firm resistance at 1.1938, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for an extension higher. Initial support is 1.1861, Apr 8 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Key Support Still Exposed

  • RES 4: 1.3959 Former channel bull channel
  • RES 3: 1.3953 50% Retracement Feb - Mar Downleg
  • RES 2: 1.3919/49 High Apr 6
  • RES 1: 1.3840 High Apr 7
  • PRICE: 1.3727 @ 06:00 BST Apr 13
  • SUP 1: 1.3670/69 Low Mar 25 / Low Apr 12
  • SUP 2: 1.3663 Low Low Feb 5
  • SUP 3: 1.3641 38.2% retracement of the Sep 23 - Feb 24 bull cycle
  • SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Feb 4

GBPUSD maintains a softer tone and is trading closer to the lower end of its recent range. Firm resistance is at 1.3919, Apr 6 high. Also, a former bull channel drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low highlights a key resistance at 1.3959. Clearance of 1.3919 and 1.3959 is required to strengthen a bullish argument. Attention is on key support 1.3670, Mar 25 low. A clean break would resume the downtrend and open 1.3641, a Fibonacci retracement.

EURGBP TECHS: Consolidating Near Recent Highs

  • RES 4: 0.8791 High Feb 12
  • RES 3: 0.8731/53 High Feb 26 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 2: 0.8705 High Mar 1
  • RES 1: 0.8698 High Apr 9
  • PRICE: 0.8659 @ 06:08 BST Apr 13
  • SUP 1: 0.8582 Low Apr 7
  • SUP 2: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 0.8430/12 Low Feb 27, 2020 / 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
  • SUP 4: 0.8356 Low Feb 26

A bullish short-term EURGBP outlook remains intact with the cross holding onto recent gains. Last week's gains reinforce the current bullish theme following the bullish engulfing reversal pattern on Mar 6. Recent gains have seen prices top the key resistance at 0.8646, Mar 24 high and the 50-day EMA. An extension higher would open 0.8731, Feb 26 high where a break would strengthen the current bull cycle. Initial support is at 0.8582, Apr 7 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Short-Term Bearish Risk Still Present

  • RES 4: 111.71 High Mar 24
  • RES 3: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
  • RES 2: 110.55/97 High Apr 6 / High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: 109.94 High Apr 7
  • PRICE: 109.39 @ 06:19 BST Apr 13
  • SUP 1: 109.00 Low Apr 8
  • SUP 2: 108.41 Low Mar 23 and key support
  • SUP 3: 107.99 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 106.97 Low Mar 4

USDJPY still appears vulnerable following the recent pullback from the Mar 31 high. The pair last week breached support highlighted by the 20-day EMA, at 109.38 today. A clear break of the average would suggest scope for a deeper pullback towards the 109.00 handle and 108.41, Mar 23 low. The current pullback is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Initial resistance 109.96, Apr 9 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

  • RES 4: 132.36 1.382 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
  • RES 3: 131.58 High Oct 4, 2018
  • RES 2: 131.22 1.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
  • RES 1: 130.69 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 130.43 @ 06:33 BST Apr 13
  • SUP 1: 129.57/13 Low Apr 8 / Low Mar 30
  • SUP 2: 128.89/87 50-day EMA / Trendline drawn off Oct 30, 2020 low
  • SUP 3: 128.29 Low Mar 24
  • SUP 4: 127.50 Low Feb 22

EURJPY is consolidating. The cross traded below 130.00 last week but did find support at 129.57. Price also tested the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would suggest scope for a deeper pullback and expose key support around the 50-day EMA at 128.89 and trendline support at 128.87, drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. While this support zone holds, the uptrend remains intact. The trigger for a resumption of gains is 130.69., Apr 7 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present

  • RES 4: 0.7849 High Mar 18 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: 0.7774 High Mar 19
  • RES 2: 0.7750 High Mar 23
  • RES 1: 0.7659/77 trendline drawn off the Feb 25 high / High Apr 7
  • PRICE: 0.7599 @ 06:40 BST Apr 13
  • SUP 1: 0.7588 Low Apr 9
  • SUP 2: 0.7532/17 Low Apr 1 and the bear trigger / Low Dec 22
  • SUP 3: 0.7462 Low Dec 21
  • SUP 4: 0.7418 23.6% retracement of the Mar 2020 - Feb rally

AUDUSD remains within its recent range and above the early April low. Key support is at 0.7532, Apr 1 low and the outlook is bearish. The pair has recently breached 0.7563, Mar 25 low and the Feb 2 low of 0.7564. This reinforces a bearish theme following the confirmation of a head and shoulders reversal pattern on Mar 23. The focus is on 0.7517, Dec 22 low. Initial resistance is seen at 0.7677, Apr 7 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Focus

  • RES 4: 1.2763 High Feb 12
  • RES 3: 1.2749 High Feb 26 and key resistance
  • RES 2: 1.2700 High Mar 8
  • RES 1: 1.2647 High Mar 30 and the short-term bull trigger
  • PRICE: 1.2583 @ 06:45 BST Apr 13
  • SUP 1: 1.2502 Low Apr 5 and key near-term support
  • SUP 2: 1.2462 Low Mar 19
  • SUP 3: 1.2365 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 1.2336 1.00 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing

The USDCAD outlook remains bullish following the recent recovery from 1.2502, Apr 5 low. Short-term trend signals continue to point north and attention is on resistance at 1.2647, Mar 30 high and the bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the recovery that started Mar 18 and would open 1.2749, Feb 26 high. Key near-term support is 1.2502 where a break would instead signal the resumption of bearish activity.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Remains Below Resistance At 172.12

  • RES 4: 172.78 0.764 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 11 - Mar 18 price swing
  • RES 3: 172.66 High Mar 25
  • RES 2: 172.34 High Mar 29
  • RES 1: 172.12 High Apr 8
  • PRICE: 171.20 @ 05:08 BST Apr 13
  • SUP 1: 171.15 Low Apr 9
  • SUP 2: 170.71/52 Low Mar 30 / Low Mar 18 and key support
  • SUP 3: 170.00 Round number support
  • SUP 4: 169.24 Low Feb 24 and major support

Bund futures remain vulnerable with initial resistance recently defined at 172.12, Apr 8 high. A bearish focus remains intact with attention on key S/T support at 170.52, Mar 18 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish case and signal scope for a deeper sell-off. The move lower from 172.66, Mar 25 low suggests the recovery between Feb 25 - Mar 25 was a correction and that this correction is possibly over. Bearish!

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Bearish Risk Remains Present

  • RES 4: 135.544 0.764 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 9 price swing
  • RES 3: 135.520 High Mar 25
  • RES 2: 135.440 High Mar 29
  • RES 1: 135.350 High Apr 8
  • PRICE: 135.050 @ 05:17 BST Apr 13
  • SUP 1: 135.010 Low Apr 9
  • SUP 2: 134.940/870 Low Mar 30 / Low Mar 19 and key S/T support
  • SUP 3: 134.780 Low Mar 8 and 9
  • SUP 4: 134.670 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Bobl futures maintain a bearish focus and recent gains have likely been a correction. The Apr 9 sell-off refocuses attention on support at 134.870, Mar 18 low where a break would strengthen a bearish argument and suggest scope for a deeper pullback. This would open 134.780, the Mar 8 and 9 lows and potentially below. For bulls, key resistance has been defined at 135.520, Mar 25 high. Initial resistance is at 135.350.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Bearish Theme

  • RES 4: 112.173 0.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
  • RES 3: 112.172 50-day EMA (cont)
  • RES 2: 112.165 High Mar 25 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: 112.150 High Apr 8
  • PRICE: 112.120 @ 05:26 BST Apr 13
  • SUP 1: 112.100 Low Apr 9
  • SUP 2: 112.070 Low Mar 18 and a key near-term support
  • SUP 3: 112.060 Low Mar 10
  • SUP 4: 112.026 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Initial Schatz futures resistance has been defined at 112.150, Mar 25 high. The contract also remains below the key resistance at 112.165, Mar 25 high. Recent gains are considered corrective and a bearish focus remains intact. A move lower would expose support at 112.070, Mar 18 low where a break would strengthen a bearish argument and open 112.060, Mar 10 low and potentially below. Clearance of 112.165 would reinstate a bullish theme.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Downtrend Remains Intact

  • RES 4: 129.75 High Feb 19
  • RES 3: 129.27 High Mar 2 and the reversal trigger
  • RES 2: 128.93 High Mar 25
  • RES 1: 128.66 High Apr 8
  • PRICE: 128.12 @ Close Apr 12
  • SUP 1: 127.32 Low Apr 1
  • SUP 2: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)
  • SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

Gilt futures are still trading closer to recent highs. Despite last week's gains, the downtrend remains intact. Attention is on key support at 126.79, Mar 18 low and the trigger for a resumption of the trend. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a test of the 126.00 handle. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 128.93, Mar 25 high. A break of this level would expose the key hurdle for bulls at 129.27, Mar 2 high.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Testing Key Support

  • RES 4: 150.69 76.4% retracement of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off
  • RES 3: 150.39 High Mar 11 and key short-term resistance
  • RES 2: 149.88 High Apr 6
  • RES 1: 149.47 High Apr 8
  • PRICE: 148.44 @ Close Apr 12
  • SUP 1: 148.32 Low Apr 9
  • SUP 2: 148.20 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 rally
  • SUP 3: 147.68 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 rally
  • SUP 4: 147.56 Low Mar 5

Recent price action in BTP futures have defined resistance at 150.39, Mar 11 high and support at 148.36, Mar 18 low as key short-term directional triggers. A bearish theme continues to dominate though and Friday's sell-off resulted in a test of 148.36. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish argument and open 147.56, Mar 5 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at 149.47, Apr 8 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 Techs: Attention Is On The 4000 Handle

  • RES 4: 4110.24 High Jan 18, 2008
  • RES 3: 4047.72 2.236 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
  • RES 2: 4000.00 Psychological round number
  • RES 1: 3988.10 High Apr 7
  • PRICE: 3961.90 @ Close Apr 12
  • SUP 1: 3950.18 Low Apr 6
  • SUP 2: 3910.90 Low Mar 31
  • SUP 3: 3891.59 20-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 3841.46 Low Mar 26

EUROSTOXX 50 remains bullish. The index registered a fresh trend high on Apr 6 of 3988.10. The recovery from 3784.09, Mar 25 low, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend, extending the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on the psychological 4000.00 handle next. On the downside, key trend support is at 3784.09. A break is required to signal a potential short-term top. Bullish!

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M1) Still Trading Sideways

  • RES 4: $70.67 - High Mar 8 and the key bull trigger
  • RES 3: $69.50 - High Mar 15
  • RES 2: $67.76 - High Mar 18
  • RES 1: $65.39 - High Mar 29 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: $63.58 @ 06:41 BST Apr 13
  • SUP 1: $61.25 - Low Apr 5
  • SUP 2: $60.33 - Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: $58.27 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally
  • SUP 4: $56.80 - High Jan 13

Brent crude futures are unchanged and still consolidating with price remaining below recent highs. The Mar 30 break higher through $64.97, Mar 22 high failed to deliver any bullish follow through despite signalling scope for a recovery. Price would need to trade above $65.39, Mar 30 high to again suggest scope for an extension higher. This would open $67.76, Mar 18 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger is at $60.33, low Mar 23.

WTI TECHS: (K1) Consolidating

  • RES 4: $67.79 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
  • RES 3: $66.44 - High Mar 15
  • RES 2: $64.88 - High Mar 18 and a key near-term resistance
  • RES 1: $62.27 - High Mar 30
  • PRICE: $59.99 @ 06:49 BST Apr 13
  • SUP 1: $57.63 - Low Apr 5
  • SUP 2: $57.25 - Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: $55.65 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally
  • SUP 4: $53.68 - High Jan 13

WTI futures continue to consolidate. The Mar 30 break above resistance at $62.04, Mar 22 high, failed to deliver any bullish follow through despite signalling scope for a recovery. Price needs to clear $62.27, Mar 30 high to once again suggest scope for gains. This would open $64.88, Mar 18 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at $57.25, Mar 23 low. A break would resume bearish pressure.

GOLD TECHS: Pulls Away From Recent Highs

  • RES 4: $1816.0 - High Feb 23
  • RES 3: $1805.7 - High Feb 25
  • RES 2: $1775.9 - High Feb 26
  • RES 1: $1758.3/58.8 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 8
  • PRICE: $1727.3 @ 07:16 BST Apr 13
  • SUP 1: $1721.4 - Low Apr 5
  • SUP 2: $1705.9 - Low Apr 1
  • SUP 3: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: $1671.0 - Low Jun 5, 2020

Gold is pulling away from recent highs. Resistance has been defined at $1758.8, Apr 8 high. A break is required to strengthen a bullish case and note this would also highlight a break of the 50-day EMA. While resistance remains intact, the short-term risk is for a deeper pullback and attention is on initial support at $1721.4, Apr 5 low. A break would suggest scope for weakness towards the key support at $1676.9, Mar 8 low.

SILVER TECHS: Off Recent Highs

  • RES 4: $26.636 - High Mar 18 and firm near-term resistance
  • RES 3: $26.318 - High Mar 19
  • RES 2: $25.668 - 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: $25.617 - High Apr 8
  • PRICE: $24.876 @ 07:23 BST Apr 13
  • SUP 1: $24.617 - Low Apr 5
  • SUP 2: $23.781 - Low Mar 31
  • SUP 3: $23.524 - Low Dec 7 and key near-term support
  • SUP 4: $22.591 - Low Dec 12

Silver is pulling away from recent highs and resistance has been defined at $25.617, Apr 8 high. Despite recent gains, the outlook remains bearish and upticks are considered corrective. Recent bearish activity has opened $23.524, Dec 7 low and a key near-term support. On the upside, the 20-day EMA has been probed. An extension higher would expose $25.668, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of the average would be a bullish development.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

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