MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P E-Minis Rebound Extends

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Rebound Extends

• In the FX space, the USD remains in an uptrend and current weakness is considered corrective. EURUSD last week cleared 1.1704, Mar 31 low. This signals scope for a move to 1.1621 next, 1.00 projection of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing. Firm resistance is at 1.1805, Aug 13 high. GBPUSD remains bearish and the focus is on key support and the bear trigger at 1.3572, Jul 20 low. USDCAD resumed its uptrend last week but did stall at 1.2949, the Aug 20 high. The trend remains bullish with the focus on 1.2976, 1.00 projection of the Jun 23 - Jul 19 - 30 price swing. Friday's price pattern is a bearish shooting star candle though and is a concern for bulls - watch support at 1.2649, Aug 19 low.
• On the equity front, {US} S&P E-minis have recovered from recent lows of 4347.75, Aug 19 low. Importantly, last week's low and rebound, means the 50-day EMA remains intact. This average intersects at 4347.46 and represents a key support area. Attention is on the bull trigger at 4476.50, the Aug 16 high. {EU} EUROSTOXX 50 last week probed its 50-day EMA. Key support has been defined at 4078.00, Aug 19 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains firm with the focus on the next important resistance at $1796.5, the 50-day EMA. A break would strengthen bullish conditions. WTI futures support at $64.49, Jul 20 low was cleared last week. This strengthens the bearish theme and opens $60.81, 1.236 projection of the Jul 6 - 20 - 30 swing. Resistance is at $65.00, Aug 9 low.
• In FI, support to watch in Bunds is unchanged at 176.21, the Aug 11 low. Trend conditions remain bullish. The bull trigger is 177.61, Aug 05 high. Gilt futures outlook is bullish too and attention is on 130.72, Aug 4 high and the bull trigger. The support to watch is unchanged at 129.16, the 50-day EMA.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 1.1909 High Jul 30
• RES 3: 1.1843 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.1766/1805 20-day EMA / High Aug 13
• RES 1: 1.1742 High Aug 18
• PRICE: 1.1718 @ 06:01 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 1.1664 Low Aug 20
• SUP 2: 1.1621 1.00 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1495 High Mar 9, 2020

EURUSD maintains a bearish tone but has recovered from recent lows. Last week saw the pair slip through 1.1704, Mar 31 low and 1.1700. The break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend, reinforcing the prevailing bearish theme. This opens 1.1603 next, the Nov 4, 2020 low. Below here, the immediate post pandemic highs at 1.1495 would attract and also likely act as strong psychological and pivot support. Resistance is 1.1742.

GBPUSD TECHS: Key Support Still Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3983/90 High Jul 30 / 61.8% of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
• RES 3: 1.3916 High Aug 9
• RES 2: 1.3850/52 High Aug 17 / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3726/86 Low Aug 17 / High Aug 18
• PRICE: 1.3651 @ 06:07 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 1.3591 Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 1.3572 Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3520 Low Jan 18
• SUP 4: 1.3452 Low Jan 11

GBPUSD resumed the pullback from 1.3983, Jul 30 high on Friday. The move lower last week reinforces a bearish condition and confirms the end of the corrective bounce in late July. Price remains below the 50-day EMA and has breached a minor support at 1.3691, the Jul 22 low. The next key support is located at 1.3572, Jul 20 low. A convincing recovery back above the 50-day EMA at 1.3852 is required to ease the current bearish pressure.

EURGBP TECHS: Holding Onto Recent Gains

• RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8659 High Jul 21
• RES 2: 0.8618 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 10 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.8593 100-dma
• PRICE: 0.8583 @ 06:15 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 0.8553/06 Low Aug 20 / Low Jul 19
• SUP 2: 0.8484/50 Low Aug 16 / Low Aug 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.8414 1.0% 10-dma envelope

EURGBP is trading near recent highs. Last week, the cross moved back above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The move higher signals scope for further gains near-term with the focus on the 100-dma next at 0.8593. Current gains are still considered corrective though and from a trend perspective, the outlook is bearish. A return lower and a break of initial firm support at 0.8506, Aug 19 low would signal a resumption of bearish pressure.

USDJPY TECHS: Consolidating Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: 111.66 High Jul 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 110.82 High Jul 7
• RES 2: 110.80 High Aug 11 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 110.46 High Aug 13
• PRICE: 109.89 @ 06:25 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 109.48 Low Aug 18 / 19
• SUP 2: 109.11/108.72 Low Aug 16 / Low Aug 04 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 4: 108.47/34 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally / Low May 7

USDJPY is consolidating and remains above recent lows. Despite a move higher, the pair still appears vulnerable and attention is on the key support at 108.72, Aug 4 low. A breach of this level would strengthen a bearish case and expose the 108.47 Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, key near-term resistance is unchanged at 110.80, Aug 11 high. A break would ease bearish concerns and instead open key resistance at 111.66, Jul 2 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 131.09 High Jul 13
• RES 3: 130.56 High Jul 29
• RES 2: 129.71/130.01 High Aug 16 / High Aug 5
• RES 1: 129.14 Low Aug 8
• PRICE: 128.80 @ 06:29 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 127.94 Low Aug 19
• SUP 2: 127.88 38.2% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jun rally
• SUP 3: 127.31 Low Feb 17
• SUP 4: 126.44 Low Feb 9

EURJPY maintains a weaker tone. Last week's key technical development was the break of 128.60, Jul 20 low. The break confirms a resumption of the current downtrend paving the way for an extension of this bearish cycle. Note too that the move lower has also confirmed a clear breach of the 200-dma. Potential is for a move to 127.88, 38.2% of the Oct '20 - Jun rally. Initial firm resistance is at 129.71.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.7389 High Aug 11
• RES 3: 0.7341 High Aug 17
• RES 2: 0.7290 Low Jul 21 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 0.7250 High Aug 19
• PRICE: 0.7163 @ 06:38 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 0.7106 Low Aug 20
• SUP 2: 0.7053 38.2% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb uptrend
• SUP 3: 0.6991 Low Nov 2, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6921 Low Jul 14, 2020

AUDUSD traded to fresh trend lows once again Friday as bearish conditions strengthened. The breach of 0.7290 last week confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, reinforcing the current downward cycle. Price has also cleared 0.7200 and this opens 0.7053 further out, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is at 0.7290, low Jul 21. Gains are considered corrective.

USDCAD TECHS: Shooting Star Candle

• RES 4: 1.3029 High Nov 25, 2020
• RES 3: 1.2976 1.00 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2957 High Dec 21, 2020
• RES 1: 1.2949 High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2766 @ 06:46 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 1.2649 Low Aug 19
• SUP 2: 1.2597 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2503 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2422 Jul 30 low

USDCAD traded higher Friday and touched 1.2949 before finding resistance. The outlook remains bullish following last week's strong gains that resulted in a breach of the 1.2807 bull trigger, Jul 19 high. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens1.2976, a Fibonacci projection. Note though that Friday's price pattern is a bearish shooting star candle and is a concern for bulls. We will monitor this pattern as it is a reversal threat.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Holding Onto Recent Gains

• RES 4: 178.37 High Jan 4 (cont)
• RES 3: 178.12 High Jan 27
• RES 2: 177.69 1.764 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 1: 177.61 High Aug 05 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 177.00 @ 05:11 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 176.21 Low Aug 11
• SUP 2: 175.82/24 Low Jul 27 / Low Jul 22
• SUP 3: 175.21 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 174.77/45 High Jul 8 / Low Jul 15

Bund futures are trading closer to recent highs. From a trend perspective, the outlook is bullish with MA studies still in a bull mode. Momentum studies have been in overbought territory recently however this does not appear to be a concern for bulls at this stage of the uptrend. Support is located at 176.21, Aug 11 low and a break would be bearish. The bull trigger is 177.61, Aug 5 high. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the uptrend.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 136.642 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 4: 136.041 61.8% retracement of the March 2020 downleg
• RES 3: 135.700 High Dec 11, 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: 135.640 High Aug 05 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 135.340 @ 05:11 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 135.140/134.900 Low Aug 13 / Low Jul 22
• SUP 2: 134.924/710 50-day EMA / High Jul 8
• SUP 3: 134.570 Low Jul 15
• SUP 4: 134.410 Low Jul 13 and a key support

Bobl futures continue to trade below recent highs. The recent pullback is considered corrective. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode and a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows continues to dominate, highlighting a bullish trend condition. Attention is on the Dec 11 2020 highs of 135.700 and the 136.041 Fibonacci retracement. Initial support is at 135.140, Aug 13 low. The bull trigger is unchanged 135.640, Aug 5 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 112.450 High Dec 11, 2020 (cont)
• RES 3: 112.425 2.618 proj of the Jun 22 - Jul 8 - Jul 13 price swing
• RES 2: 112.415 High Aug 05 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 112.360 High Aug 9
• PRICE: 112.335 @ 05:20 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 112.295 Low Aug 13 and 16
• SUP 2: 112.277 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 112.245 Low Jul 21
• SUP 4: 112.210 Low Jul 20

Schatz futures remain above recent lows. The contract has recently probed the 20-day EMA and further weakness would open the 50-day EMA at 112.277. The broader uptrend remains intact though with moving average studies holding a bullish position and a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows intact. A resumption of strength would open the bull trigger at 112.415, Aug 8 high.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Eyeing The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 131.72 38.2% retracement of the Mar'20 - Jun'21 sell-off
• RES 3: 131.37 38.2% retracement of the Aug '20 - Jun sell-off
• RES 2: 130.72 High Aug 3 / 2.236 of the May 13-26-Jun 3 price swing
• RES 1: 130.48 200-dma (cont)
• PRICE: 130.29 @ Close Aug 20
• SUP 1: 129.22/129.16 Low Aug 6 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 128.54/39 Low Jul 14 / High Jun 11
• SUP 3: 128.03 Jul 6
• SUP 4: 127.87 Low Jul 1

Gilt futures traded higher Friday. Recent gains stalled ahead of the 200-dma - the contract achieved a high print of 130.72 on Aug 4. The pullback that followed from 130.72 is considered corrective with key support seen at the 50-day EMA, currently at 129.16. The trend remains up and the bull trigger is unchanged at 130.72 with the 200 dma at 130.48 (cont) also marking a key hurdle for bulls. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would alter the picture.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 156.73 1.236 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 3: 156.11 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 156.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 155.71 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 155.33 @ Close Aug 23
• SUP 1: 154.54 Low Aug 11
• SUP 2: 154.31 Bull channel base drawn off the May 19 low
• SUP 3: 153.48 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 151.93 High Jul 8

BTP futures are unchanged and still in a consolidation mode. The trend remains up with moving average studies holding a bull position. Furthermore, a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows continues to dominate. The recent high of 155.71 on Aug 5 marks the bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 156.11, a Bollinger band ceiling. Initial support lies at 154.54, the Aug 11 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Retracing Recent Sell-Off

• RES 4: 4294.20 1.236 proj of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4271.30 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 4238.50 High Aug 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4177.20 61.8% retracement of the Aug 13 - 19 sell-off
• PRICE: 4168.50 @ 05:50 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 4078.00 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4026.20 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Aug 13 rally
• SUP 3: 3944.00 Low Jul 21
• SUP 4: 3895.00 Low Jul 19

EUROSTOXX 50 is retracing the recent sharp sell-off. At this stage, gains since Aug 19 suggest the sell-off between Aug 13 - 19 has been a correction and that this correction is over. A key support has been defined at 4078.00, Aug 19 low. While it holds, scope is seen for further short-term gains that coulds ultimately result in a retest of 4238.50, the Aug 13 high and bull trigger. A break of 4078.00 would instead be bearish.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Approaching The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 4542.58 1.236 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4500.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4481 75.1.00 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4476.50 High Aug 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4452.00 @ 06:58 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 4347.75 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4347.46 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4320.46 61.8% retracement of the Jul 19 - Aug 16 rally
• SUP 4: 4224.00 Low Jul 19 and key support

S&P E-minis outlook is bullish and recent weakness has likely been a correction. The contract has recovered from recent lows of 4347.75, Aug 19 low. Importantly, last week's low and rebound, means the 50-day EMA remains intact. This average intersects at 4347.46 and represents a key support area. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would signal a short-term reversal. Attention is on the bull trigger at 4476.50, the Aug 16 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V1) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $75.65 - High Jul 30
• RES 3: $73.55 - High Aug 3
• RES 2: $71.90 - High Aug 12 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $68.14/70.04 - Low Aug 16 / High Aug 18
• PRICE: $66.46 @ 06:54 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: $64.60 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $63.89 - Low May 21 and a key support
• SUP 3: $63.43 - 1.236 proj of the Jul 6 - 20 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4: $62.71 - Low Apr 22

Brent futures remain in a downtrend despite today's gains. The contract last week cleared key former support at $66.91, the Jul 20 low. The breach of this bear trigger strengthens a bearish case and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Moving averages have reversed their condition from bullish to bearish, highlighting a stronger bearish threat. The focus is on $63.89, May 21 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is $70.04, Aug 18 high.

WTI TECHS: (V1) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $71.29 - High Aug 3
• RES 3: $69.39 - High Aug 12 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: $67.53 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $65.00 - Aug 9 low
• PRICE: $63.22 @ 07:02 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: $61.74 - Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: $60.81 - 1.236 proj of the Jul 6 - 20 - 30 price swing
• SUP 3: $60.68 - Low May 21
• SUP 4: $59.56 - Low Apr 22

WTI futures remain bearish and gains are considered corrective. The contract has cleared former key support at $64.49, Jul 20 low. The break of this bear trigger strengthens a bearish case and signals scope for a deeper retracement. MA studies remain in bull mode, however a confirmed switch to bearish would highlight a stronger bearish threat. Key resistance has been defined at $69.39, Aug 12 high. Initial resistance is at $65.00, Aug 9 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bull Flag

• RES 4: $1863.3 - High Jun 16
• RES 3: $1853.3 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 2: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $1796.50 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1785.5 @ 07:18 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: $1751.7 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 2: $1717.8 - Low Aug 10
• SUP 3: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1689.9 - 61.8% retracement of the 2020 Range

Gold is consolidating and remains closer to recent highs. This consolidation appears to be a bull flag and reinforces a bullish theme. The yellow metal last week traded through the 20-day EMA and sights are set on the 50-day EMA that intersects at $1796.50 today. A breach of this average would strengthen a bullish chase and open the key resistance at $1834.1, Jul 15 high. On the downside, initial support is seen at $1751.7, the Aug 13 low.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish

• RES 4: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 3: $26.002 - High Aug 04 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.101 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $24.157 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $23.247 @ 07:22 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: $22.626 - Low Aug 09 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $21.775 - 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 3: $21.899 - Low Nov 30, 2020
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50% retracement of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 rally

Silver remains vulnerable. Moving average conditions continue to highlight a bearish theme and note too that price action since Aug 9, still appears to be a flag - a bearish formation. A break and close below the Aug 9 low of $22.626 would confirm a resumption of bearish pressure and open a key Fibonacci support at 20.871, 50% of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 range. The 20-day EMA at $24.157 marks resistance.