MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S/T Bull Cycle in EuroStoxx50 Futures Remains Intact

Price Signal Summary – S/T Bull Cycle in EuroStoxx50 Futures Remains Intact

• A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact. Recent gains have resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from the Jul 27 high. This breach reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards 4597.50, the Sep 1 high. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 4441.90, the 20-day EMA. A short-term bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract is holding on to this week’s highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a rising cycle and the potential for a continuation higher.
• The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair traded to a fresh short-term cycle high Thursday. This week’s gains have resulted in a break of 1.2506, the Nov 14 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend. USDJPY continues to trade above this week’s low. Tuesday’s price pattern - a dragonfly doji candle - highlights a potential reversal and the end of the recent corrective move down. If correct, it signals scope for a rally that would expose key resistance at 151.95. USDCAD traded lower again Thursday but recovered to close slighter higher on the day. Attention is on trendline support at 1.3653 - drawn from the Jul 14 low. A clear break of this line would undermine the recent bullish theme.
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and this week’s gains reinforce this condition. The latest recovery signals scope for a test of key short-term resistance at $2009.4, the Nov 7 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards $2022.2. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains in play and recent gains are considered corrective. The break lower last week marked an extension of the downtrend that started late September and this has maintained a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
• Bund futures traded lower Thursday but despite the move down, the contract maintains a firmer short-term tone. The recent breach of resistance at 130.93, the Nov 9 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 4. The move higher opens 132.13. Gilt futures traded lower Thursday. The pullback is considered corrective and a bull cycle remains in play. Key short-term support has been defined at 94.58, the Nov 13 low. Initial support lies at 95.63, the 20-day EMA.

EURUSD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 1.1081 76.4% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 downleg
• RES 3: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1005/45 High Aug 11 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.0965 High Nov 21
• PRICE: 1.0908 @ 05:46 GMT Nov 24
• SUP 1: 1.0825/0756 Low Nov 17 / High Nov 5, recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 1.0725 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0656 Low Nov 10 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2

The trend outlook in EURUSD remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Sights are on 1.1005, Aug 11 high and 1.1065, the Aug 10 high and a key resistance. MA studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting positive market sentiment. Note that recovery has resulted in the 14-day RSI crossing the 70 mark, highlighting an overbought reading. A corrective pullback would unwind this condition. Initial support is 1.0825, Nov 17 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.2720 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2686 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2589 50.0% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2564 High Nov 23
• PRICE: 1.2541 @ 06:04 GMT Nov 24
• SUP 1: 1.2449 Low Nov 22
• SUP 2: 1.2374/2349 Low Nov 17 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2266 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 1.2187 Low Nov 10 and key short-term support

The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair traded to a fresh short-term cycle high Thursday. This week’s gains have resulted in a break of 1.2506, the Nov 14 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.2589, 50.0% of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg. On the downside, initial firm support to watch has been defined at 1.2374, the Nov 17 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8768 High Nov 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8700 @ 06:16 GMT Nov 24
• SUP 1: 0.8685 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8650 Low Nov 6 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8616 Low Oct 11 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8569 Low Sep 15 and a key support

The trend outlook in EURGBP remains bullish, however, the sharp sell-off Tuesday continues to highlight a short-term corrective cycle and the cross is trading closer to this week’s lows. Attention is on support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8685. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The bull trigger has been defined at 0.8768, the Nov 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.

USDJPY TECHS: Remains Above Tuesday’s Low

• RES 4: 153.52 2.236 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 3: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 150.78/51.95 High Nov 17 / High Oct 21 ‘22 - major resistance
• RES 1: 149.96 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 149.32 @ 06:44 GMT Nov 24
• SUP 1: 147.15 Low Nov 21
• SUP 2: 146.29 Trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low
• SUP 3: 144.45 Low Sep 1
• SUP 4: 142.85 61.8% of the Jul 14 - Nov 13 bull run

USDJPY continues to trade above this week’s low. Tuesday’s price pattern - a dragonfly doji candle - highlights a potential reversal and the end of the recent corrective move down. If correct, it signals scope for a rally that would expose key resistance at 151.95, the Oct 21 2022 high. On the downside, a break of Tuesday's 147.15 low, would cancel the pattern and instead expose 146.29, trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 166.97 1.50 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 3: 165.99 1.382 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 2: 164.77 1.236 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 1: 163.56/164.30 High Nov 20 / 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 162.93 @ 06:57 GMT Nov 24
• SUP 1: 161.25 Low Nov 21
• SUP 2: 159.97 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 159.07 Low Nov 1 / 2
• SUP 4: 157.70 Low Oct 30

The primary uptrend in EURJPY remains intact and the recovery from Wednesday’s low is a positive development. The cross has this week tested support at the 20-day EMA - at 161.69. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement, and open the 50-day EMA, at 159.97. On the upside, a continuation higher would refocus attention on 164.30, the Nov 16 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.6739 High Jul 31
• RES 3: 0.6690/6723 3.0% 10-dma envelope / High Aug 1
• RES 2: 0.6656 61.8% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6589/6616 High Nov 21 / High Oct 8
• PRICE: 0.6556 @ 07:30 GMT Nov 24
• SUP 1: 0.6476 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6441/6339 50-day EMA / Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 0.6315 Low Oct 31
• SUP 4: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 nand the bear trigger

AUDUSD is unchanged. The trend needle continues to point north and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. The latest rally has resulted in a clear break of former resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. This reinforces the bullish theme and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term towards 0.6616 next, the Oct 8 high. On the downside, initial firm support is at 0.6441, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.4001 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.3977 High Oct 13 2022 and a major resistance
• RES 2: 1.3855/3899 High Nov 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3777 High Nov 16
• PRICE: 1.3696 @ 07:53 GMT Nov 24
• SUP 1: 1.3653 Trendline drawn from the Jul 14 low
• SUP 2: 1.3629 Low Nov 6 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.3591 38.2% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.3417 Low Sep 29

USDCAD traded lower again Thursday but recovered to close slighter higher on the day. Attention is on trendline support at 1.3653 - drawn from the Jul 14 low. A clear break of this line would undermine the recent bullish theme. Note that 1.3629, the Nov 6 low, also represents an important support. Clearance of this level would confirm a short-term reversal and open 1.3569, the Oct 10 low. Initial resistance to watch is at 1.3777, the Nov 16 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Bullish Despite The Latest Pullback

• RES 4: 132.97 1.618 proj of the Oct 4 - 12 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 132.78 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 132.13 1.382 proj of the Oct 4 - 12 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 131.74 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 130.52 @ 05:21 GMT Nov 24
• SUP 1: 129.96 Low 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 129.35 Low Nov 7 / 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 128.31/127.18 Low Oct 27 / 23
• SUP 4: 126.62 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger

Bund futures traded lower Thursday but despite the move down, the contract maintains a firmer short-term tone. The recent breach of resistance at 130.93, the Nov 9 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 4. The move higher opens 132.13, a 1.382 projection of the Oct 4 - 12 - 23 price swing. Firm support to watch is 129.35, the Nov 7 / 13 low. A break of this level would highlight a possible reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Approaching Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 117.751 1.618 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 117.610 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.369 1.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 117.040/230 High Nov 22 / 17 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 116.390 @ 05:41 GMT Nov 24
• SUP 1: 116.362/000 50-day EMA / Low Nov 13
• SUP 2: 115.850 Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 115.480/130 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 4: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and this week’s pullback appears - for now - to be a correction. However, the contract is approaching support at the 50-day EMA, at 116.362. A clear break of the EMA would undermine bullish conditions and signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards support at 116.000. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 117.230, the Nov 17 high. A break of this level would resume the uptrend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 3: 105.372 76.4% Fibonacci retracement Sep 1 - 21 downleg
• RES 2: 105.335 High Nov 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: 105.145/265 High Nov 22 / 17
• PRICE: 104.980 @ 05:37 GMT Nov 24
• SUP 1: 104.925 Low Nov 14 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 104.880/765 Low Oct 20 / Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

Schatz futures maintain a bullish tone despite the latest pullback from 105.265, the Nov 17 high. A bullish engulfing candle was confirmed on Nov 14. If correct, the pattern continues to signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at 105.335, the Nov 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the case for bulls. On the downside, a breach of 104.925, the Nov 14 low, would cancel the reversal signal and reinstate a bearish threat.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Bull Cycle Remains In Play Despite Pullback

• RES 4: 99.73 Low Apr 19 (cont)
• RES 3: 99.26 50.0% of the Mar 20 - Oct 23 downleg (cont)
• RES 2: 98.98 High May 22 (cont)
• RES 1: 96.96/97.99 High Nov 23 / 17
• PRICE: 95.97 @ Close Nov 24
• SUP 1: 95.63 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 94.84/58 50-day EMA / Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: 93.44 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 92.63 Low Nov 1

Gilt futures traded lower Thursday. The pullback is considered corrective and a bull cycle remains in play. Key short-term support has been defined at 94.58, the Nov 13 low. Initial support lies at 95.63, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at 96.71, the Sep 20 high, has recently been breached. This paves the way for a climb towards 98.98, the May 22 high on the continuation chart. The bull trigger is 97.99, the Nov 17 high.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 116.76 High Jul 27 (cont)
• RES 3: 116.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 115.56 High Aug 24
• RES 1: 114.89 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 113.68 @ Close Nov 24
• SUP 1: 112.64/111.90 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 110.81 Low Nov 2
• SUP 3: 109.64 Low Nov 1
• SUP 4: 108.01/107.42 Low Oct 26 / 19

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play and a short-term pullback would be considered corrective. The recent break of resistance at 113.00, the Nov 9 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started on Oct 19. Potential exists for a climb towards 115.56, Aug 24 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 111.90, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal a possible top.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 4446.00 High Aug 10
• RES 3: 4407.40 76.4% retracement of the Jul 31 - Oct 27 bear leg
• RES 2: 4388.00 High Aug 30
• RES 1: 4375.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4367.00 @ 06:45 GMT Nov 24
• SUP 1: 4263.00 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4230.90 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4185.00 Low Nov 9 and 10
• SUP 4: 4143.00 Low Nov 8

A short-term bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract is holding on to this week’s highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a rising cycle and the potential for a continuation higher. The recent breach of resistance at 4256.00, the Oct 12 high, reinforced the bullish theme. The focus is on 4388.00, the Aug 30 high. Initial firm support to watch is at 4263.00, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 4685.25 High Jul 27 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4644.75 High Aug 2
• RES 2: 4597.50 High Sep and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4580.50 High Nov 22
• PRICE: 4568.00 @ 07:08 GMT Nov 24
• SUP 1: 4501.75/4441.90 Low Nov 16 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4407.46 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4354.25 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 4257.75 Low Nov 3

A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact. Recent gains have resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from the Jul 27 high. This breach reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards 4597.50, the Sep 1 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 4441.90, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F4) Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4:$93.20 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $89.49/92.32 - High Oct 24 / 20
• RES 2: $87.80 - High Nov 3
• RES 1: $83.97 - High Nov 14 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $81.51 @ 06:57 GMT Nov 24
• SUP 1: $76.60 - Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: $75.51 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $73.82 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $71.68 - Low Jun 23

Brent futures traded in a volatile manner on Wednesday. A bearish theme remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective. Last week’s sell-off reinforced a bearish theme. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. This signals scope for $75.51 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would strengthen the bearish threat. Key short-term resistance is at $83.97, the Nov 14 high.

WTI TECHS: (F4) Moving Average Studies Remain In A Bear-Mode Set-Up

• RES 4: $83.20 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $80.39 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $79.65 - High Nov 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $78.55 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $76.51@ 07:05 GMT Nov 24
• SUP 1: $72.37 - Low Nov 16
• SUP 2: $70.96 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $69.09 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $67.28 - Jun 23

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains in play and recent gains are considered corrective. The break lower last week marked an extension of the downtrend that started late September and this has maintained a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on $70.96, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is unchanged at $79.65, Nov 14 high.

GOLD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $2063.0 - High May 4 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2048.2 - High May 10
• RES 2: $2022.2 - High May 15
• RES 1: $2009.4 - High Nov 7 / High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1992.9 @ 07:11 GMT Nov 24
• SUP 1: $1971.10/1950.2 - 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16
• SUP 4: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and this week’s gains reinforce this condition. The latest recovery signals scope for a test of key short-term resistance at $2009.4, the Nov 7 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards $2022.2, the May 15 high. Key support has been defined at $1931.7, the Nov 13 low. A break would signal a potential reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Pennant Formation

• RES 4: $25.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $24.298 - High Sep 4
• RES 1: $24.146 - High Nov 17
• PRICE: $23636@ 08:05 GMT Nov 24
• SUP 1: $23.015 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $21.883/573 - Low Nov 13 and a key support / Low Oct 9
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver is in consolidation mode and the latest pause appears to be a pennant formation - a bullish continuation signal. This reinforces the current uptrend. The metal recently cleared $23.774, the Sep 22 high and has pierced the $24.00 handle. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $25.014, the Aug 30 high. Initial support lies at $23.015, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term support has been defined at $21.883, Nov 13 low.