MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S-T Bullish Tone Strengthens for Stocks

Price Signal Summary – Short-Term Bullish Tone Strengthens for Stocks

• S&P E-Minis maintain a firmer tone and the short-term focus is on a move higher. The contract has tested the 50-day EMA, at 4181.33 today. A clear breach of this EMA would strengthen current bullish conditions and signal scope for a climb towards a key resistance at 4303.50, the Apr 26/28 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a bullish short-term tone and are trading closer to recent highs and above the 50-day EMA. Attention is on resistance at 3883.00, Apr 21 high high and a key resistance at 3944.00, Mar 29 high.
• EURUSD has stabilised and is trading closer to its recent highs. Attention remains on a key short-term resistance and the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. Channel resistance intersects at 1.0769 today and a break would strengthen bullish conditions. USDJPY is holding on to last week’s gains and maintains a bullish tone. Recent gains have highlighted the importance of the 50-day EMA as support and the pair has also defined a key support at 126.36, May 24 low. The focus is on key short-term resistance at 131.35, May 9 high and the bull trigger. USDCAD maintains a softer tone following last week’s bearish extension. Price has arrived at 1.2562, the 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 uptrend. A clear breach of the level would strengthen current bearish conditions and pave the way for weakness towards 1.2459, Apr 21 low.
• Gold traded higher last week. Recent gains suggest potential for a test of the 50-day EMA at $1875.6, where a break is required to signal scope for a stronger short-term upleg. Recent gains are still considered corrective though and the primary trend direction is down. WTI futures remain in an uptrend. The contract last week breached resistance at $116.43, the Mar 7 high and the former contract high. This confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and paves the way for an extension higher.
• Bund futures traded lower last week and remain soft. Price has cleared support at 150.97, May 9 low and a recent bear trigger. The contract has also breached the 150.00 handle. Gilt futures traded sharply lower last week to extend the pullback from its recent highs in May. The contract has traded below its key near-term support of 115.70, the May 9 low and a bear trigger.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Still Trading Below The Bear Channel Top

• RES 4: 1.0954 High Apr 11
• RES 3: 1.0936 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0852 High Apr 22
• RES 1: 1.0769/87 Bear channel top from Feb 10 high / High May 30
• PRICE: 1.0733 @ 06:07 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 1.0627/0533 Low Jun 1 / Low May 20
• SUP 2: 1.0461 Low May 18 and19
• SUP 3: 1.0350 Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support

EURUSD has stabilised and is trading closer to its recent highs. Attention remains on a key short-term resistance and the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. Channel resistance intersects at 1.0769 today and a break would strengthen bullish conditions and highlight a stronger short-term reversal. Note that the primary trend remains down. An extension lower would reinforce this theme and open 1.0533 initially, May 20 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2877 High Apr 25
• RES 3: 1.2772 High Apr 26
• RES 2: 1.2696 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2667 High May 27 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.2506 @ 06:16 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 1.2459/38 Low Jun 1 / Low May 20
• SUP 2: 1.2317 Low May 17
• SUP 3: 1.2277 76.4% retracement of the May 13 - 27 upleg
• SUP 4: 1.2156 Low May 13 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD continues to trade above last Wednesday’s low of 1.2459. For bulls, a resumption of strength would signal scope for a test of key resistance at the 50-day EMA that intersects at 1.2696. Clearance of this average is required to strengthen short-term bullish conditions. The broader trend direction is down though and the trigger for a resumption of the downtrend is 1.2156, May 13 low. Initial support lies at 1.2459/38.

EURGBP TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8658 High Sep 29 2021
• RES 3: 0.8643 High Sep 30 2021
• RES 2: 0.8619 High May 12 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8590 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.8584 @ 06:31 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 0.8506/8433 20-day EMA / Low May 23
• SUP 2: 0.8393/ 0.8391 Low May 17 / 61.8% of Apr 14 - May 12 upleg
• SUP 3: 0.8367 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 0.8337 76.4% retracement of the Apr 14 - May 12 upleg

EURGBP has traded higher today and delivered a print above resistance at 0..8587, May 24 high. This maintains the current bullish theme and attention is on 0.8619, May 12 high and the next hurdle for bulls. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend that started Mar 7. Initial support is at 0.8506, the 20-day EMA ahead of a firmer short-term at 0.8433, May 23 low. Key short-term support is unchanged at 0.8393, May 17 low and a bear trigger.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Theme

• RES 4: 132.39 High Apr 15 2002
• RES 3: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 131.35 High May 9 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 130.81 High May 11
• PRICE: 130.69 @ 06:38 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 128.63 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 126.66/36 50-day EMA / Low May 24 and key support
• SUP 3: 125.09 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 124.01 Low Apr 11

USDJPY is holding on to last week’s gains and maintains a bullish tone. Recent gains have highlighted the importance of the 50-day EMA as support and the pair has also defined a key support at 126.36, May 24 low. The focus is on key short-term resistance at 131.35, May 9 high and the bull trigger A break would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and open 131.96, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is at 128.63, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Trades Above Its Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 141.72 High Jan 8 2015
• RES 3: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 140.87 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 1: 140.50 Intraday high
• PRICE: 140.22 @ 06:48 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 138.32/37.47 High May 9 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 135.90/133.93 50-day EMA / Low May 19
• SUP 3: 133.27 100-dma
• SUP 4: 132.66 Low May 12 and the bear trigger

EURJPY climbed further into the Friday close and triggered the bull trigger at Y140.00 in the process. This strengthens bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 7. The move higher opens 140.87, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, the 20-day EMA at 137.18, is seen as a firm short-term support. A move lower would be viewed as a short-term corrective pullback.

AUDUSD TECHS: Outlook Is Bullish

• RES 4: 0.7465 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.7400 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 0.7343 61.8% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.7283 High Jun 3
• PRICE: 0.7199 @ 06:52 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 0.7134/7036 20-day EMA / Low May 25
• SUP 2: 0.6950 Low May 18
• SUP 3: 0.6829 Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020

AUDUSD remains below last week’s highs however short-term conditions are bullish. The pair has breached key resistance at 0.7266, the May 4/5 high. This strengthens bullish conditions and signal scope for a climb towards 0.7343, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that the current bull cycle is still considered corrective. A reversal lower would again refocus attention on the bear trigger at 0.6829, May 12 low. Initial firm support to watch is at 0.7036.

USDCAD TECHS: Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.3077 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2982 High May 16
• RES 2: 1.2896 High May 18 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2686/2739 High Jun 2 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2582 @ 07:10 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 1.2551 Low Jun 3
• SUP 2: 1.2459 Low Apr 21
• SUP 3: 1.2448 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2403 Low Apr 5 and key support

USDCAD maintains a softer tone following last week’s bearish extension. Price has arrived at 1.2562, the 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 uptrend. A clear breach of the level would strengthen current bearish conditions and pave the way for weakness towards 1.2459, Apr 21 low and potentially 1.2403 further out, the Apr 5 low and a key support. Key short-term resistance is seen at 1.2739, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Remains Soft

• RES 4: 158.87 High May 12
• RES 3: 155.27 High May 26
• RES 2: 153.05 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 152.34 Low May 18
• PRICE: 150.11 @ 04:58 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 149.78/49 Low Jun 3 / Low Jul 13, 2015 (cont)
• SUP 2: 148.85 1.236 proj of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 148.23 Low Jun 10, 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 148.02 1.382 proj of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing

Bund futures traded lower last week and remain soft. Price has cleared support at 150.97, May 9 low and a recent bear trigger. The contract has also breached the 150.00 handle. This highlights a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A continuation lower would open 148.85, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 153.05, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 127.160 High May 12
• RES 3: 126.710 High May 26
• RES 2: 125.658 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 125.380 Low May 18
• PRICE: 124.220 @ 05:03 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 124.110 Low Jun 3
• SUP 2: 124.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 123.830 1.618 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 123.570 1.764 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing

Bobl futures traded lower again Friday, extending last week’s bearish price action. Price has traded through former support at 124.840, the May 6 low. The fresh cycle lows confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintain the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on the 124.00 handle next. Initial resistance is seen at 125.380, the May 18 low. Gains would be considered corrective.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Bear Cycle Extension

• RES 4: 110.070 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 109.850 High May 26
• RES 2: 109.554 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 109.445 Low May 18
• PRICE: 109.080 @ 05:05 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 109.055 Low Jun 3
• SUP 2: 109.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 108.912 1.50 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 108.618 1.618 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing

Schatz futures remain soft and the contract resumed its primary downtrend last week. Support at 109.330, the May 6 low, has been cleared and this signals potential for a continuation lower with the focus on the 109.00 handle next. The break lower maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs - the definition of a downtrend. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 109.445, the May 18 low.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 119.25 High May 19
• RES 3: 118.63 High May 24 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 118.51 High May 26
• RES 1: 117.49 High May 31
• PRICE: 115.80 @ Close Jun 1
• SUP 1: 115.51 Low Jun 1
• SUP 2: 115.54 1.50 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.31 1.618 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 115.00 Round number support

Gilt futures traded sharply lower last week to extend the pullback from its recent highs in May. The contract has traded below its key near-term support of 115.70, the May 9 low and a bear trigger. The primary trend direction remains down and a clear break of 115.70 would confirm a resumption of the bear current cycle. This would open the 115.00 handle next. Initial resistance is seen at 117.49, May 31 high.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Bearish Price Structure

• RES 4: 129.00 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 127.79 High May 26
• RES 2: 125.89 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 123.86/125.13 High Jun 2 / Low May 24
• PRICE: 121.86 @ Close Jun 3
• SUP 1: 121.53 1.618 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 2: 120.96 1.764 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 120.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 119.14 2.236 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is bearish and the contract traded lower once again Friday. Last week’s bear leg confirmed a break of 123.88, May 9 low and the bear trigger. This also confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. 122.00 has been breached, the focus is on 121.53, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at 123.86 Jun 2 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Trading Closer To Recent Highs

• RES 4: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 3888.00 High Apr 5
• RES 2: 3883.00 High Apr 21
• RES 1: 3850.00 High May 30
• PRICE: 3807.00 @ 05:27 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 3725.80 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3628.00 Low May 25
• SUP 3: 3576.00/3466.00 Low May 19 / Low May 10 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3458.90 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally

EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a bullish short-term tone and are trading closer to recent highs and above the 50-day EMA. Attention is on resistance at 3883.00, Apr 21 high high and a key resistance at 3944.00, Mar 29 high. A break of the latter would strengthen current bullish conditions. Firm short-term support has been defined at 3576.00, May 19 low. A reversal lower would signal a resumption of the broader downtrend.

E-MINI S&P (M2): 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 4509.00 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 4393.25 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 4303.50 High Apr 26/28 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4181.33/4202.25 50-day EMA / High May 31
• PRICE: 4128.75 @ 06:47 BST June 6
• SUP 1: 3960.50/3807.50 Low May 26 / Low May 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3801.97 38.2% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 bull leg (cont)
• SUP 3: 3787.74 2.618 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 3747.52 2.764 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing

S&P E-Minis maintain a firmer tone and the short-term focus is on a move higher. The contract has tested the 50-day EMA, at 4181.33 today. A clear breach of this EMA would strengthen current bullish conditions and signal scope for a climb towards a key resistance at 4303.50, the Apr 26/28 high. Recent gains however are still considered corrective and the primary trend is down. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 3807.50, the bear trigger.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q2) Approaching Its Bull Trigger

• RES 4: $125.04 - 1.618 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: $124.42 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $123.49 - 1.50 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $121.95 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $120.46 @ 05:45 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: $112.61 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $112.45 - Low Jun 2
• SUP 3: $107.53 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $103.84 - Low May 19 and a key support

Brent futures resumed their upleg Friday and cleared 120.80, May 31 high. Trend conditions are bullish and price maintains a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for an extension towards the contract high of 124.42, Mar 7 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, the 20-day EMA, at $112.61, is seen as initial support. A break would suggest scope for a deeper corrective pullback.

WTI TECHS: (N2) Trades Above The $120.00 Handle

• RES 4: $125.73 - 1.382 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 3: $123.35 - 1.236 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 2: $122.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $120.99 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $119.42 @ 07:11 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: $111.01 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $103.24 - Low May 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: $100.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $96.93 - Low May 11

WTI futures remain in an uptrend. The contract last week breached resistance at $116.43, the Mar 7 high and the former contract high. This confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and paves the way for an extension higher. The contract has traded above the psychological $120.00 handle. A clear break of this level would further strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, firm support is seen at $111.01, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Watching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1919.9 - High Apr 29 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 2: $1875.6 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1874.1 - High May 24
• PRICE: $1855.3 @ 07:15 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: $1828.6 - Low Jun 1
• SUP 2: $1807.5/1787.0 - Low May 18 / Low May 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021

Gold traded higher last week. Recent gains suggest potential for a test of the 50-day EMA at $1875.6, where a break is required to signal scope for a stronger short-term upleg. Recent gains are still considered corrective though and the primary trend direction is down. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on the May 16 $1787.0 low. Clearance of the 50-day EMA on the other hand, would strengthen bullish conditions.

SILVER TECHS: Tests Levels Above Resistance

• RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
• RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• RES 2: $22.838 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $22.483 - High Jun 3
• PRICE: $22.252 @ 08:01 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: $21.435/20.464 - Low Jun 1 / Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Silver on Friday, briefly tested levels above resistance at $22.446, May 27 high. A clear break above this level is required to suggest scope for an extension higher that would open the 50-day EMA at $22.838. For bears, a resumption of weakness would signal potential for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $20.464, the May 13 low. Initial support to watch is $21.435, the Jun 1 low.