MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Sixth Session of Lower Lows for Gold

Price Signal Summary – Sixth Session of Lower Lows for Gold

• Further slippage Friday put the S&P E-Minis to fresh February lows, with weakness extending through the close. Last week’s price action put prices below first support at the 50-day EMA at 4024.94 and tilts the near-term view lower. Eurostoxx 50 futures finished near the lows of the week, with the 4175 level the lowest print since early February. Last week, dip buyers emerged on Wednesday to contain any break lower, but the shallow bounce off the Friday lows suggests a lower range to begin the week.
• The short-term trend remains tilted lower for EURUSD despite recent evidence of dip-buying on pullbacks. Prices have extended losses below the 50-day EMA at 1.0663, signalling that the current correction could have room to run lower. USDJPY rallied sharply into the Friday close, making for a solid bullish break. The new high at 136.46 holds just shy of vol band resistance at 136.67 and 136.98, which could contain a persistent rally this week. Further strength will open 136.67, the Fibonacci retracement for the Oct - Jan bear leg. AUDUSD’s February downtrend accelerated early Monday, with the pair hitting a new pullback low at 0.6698. This makes for a clean break of the 200-dma and 100-dma at 0.6799 and 0.6730 respectively.
• Trend conditions in Gold are bearish for now, with prices trading heavy on the resumption of trade. This marks an extension of the pullback after the strong sell-off on Feb 2 / 3 as well as the break of support at the 50-day EMA. WTI futures drifted lower into the Wednesday close, returning the outlook to neutral for now. Prices now sit back below the 50-day EMA, at $77.97, however the medium-term view remains unchanged.
• Bund futures printed a fresh low Wednesday, extending the mini downtrend posted since the beginning of February. 133.63 marks the new February low, with weakness initially gathering pace on the break below 135.08, opening 132.60 in the short-term. Gilt futures printed another pullback low just ahead of the Friday close, marking an extension of the bearish break for the contract. This confirms a reversal of the late January bullish theme.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Downtrend Firms

• RES 4: 1.1076 High Apr 1, 2022
• RES 3: 1.1054 1.236 proj of the Oct 13 -27 rally from the Jan 6 low
• RES 2: 1.0940/1.1033 High Feb 3 / High Feb 2
• RES 1: 1.0793 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0549 @ 07:50 GMT Feb 27
• SUP 1: 1.0533 Low Feb 27
• SUP 2: 1.0484 Low Jan 6 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.0461 38.2% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0448 1.0% 10-dma envelope

The short-term trend remains tilted lower for EUR/USD despite recent evidence of dip-buying on pullbacks. Prices have extended losses below the 50-day EMA at 1.0663, signalling that the current correction could have room to run lower. The clear break of the 50-day EMA strengthens the bearish cycle and exposes 1.0484, the Jan 6 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Sell-on-Rallies Theme Dominates

• RES 4: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2401/2448 High Feb 2 / High Jan 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2265 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 1.2269 / 99 High Feb 14 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1958 @ 07:52 GMT Feb 27
• SUP 1: 1.1923/15 Low Feb 27/17
• SUP 2: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1859 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.1800 Round number support

GBPUSD has printed a lower pullback low early Monday, extending the losses seen into the Friday close. Prices failed to retain upside momentum after the recent 1.2269 print and displayed similar price action off the 1.2147 print last week. Recent weakness reinforces a S/T bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation. A break of 1.1842 would highlight a potential trend reversal and a double top. Firm resistance is 1.2265, Feb 3 high. Key resistance is 1.2448, Jan 23 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Reverses Recent Recovery

• RES 4: 0.9097 76.4% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.9047 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8992 61.8% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8979 High Feb 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8826 @ 07:55 GMT Feb 27
• SUP 1: 0.8784 Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 0.8762 Low Jan 30
• SUP 3: 0.8755 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8722 Low Jan 19 and a reversal trigger

EURGBP reversed lower into the Tuesday close last week, harming the recent bullish outlook. The break of 0.8804 is bearish, and a close below the handle opens further weakness. 0.8762 could provide initial support ahead of the 1.0% 10-dma envelope at 0.8755. Nonetheless, moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an underlying uptrend.

USDJPY TECHS: Solid Friday Rally

• RES 4: 136.67 38.2% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 136.98 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 136.67 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 1: 136.46 High Feb 24
• PRICE: 136.25 @ 08:01 GMT Feb 27
• SUP 1: 134.06 Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: 134.35 23.6% Fib retracement for Jan - Feb Upleg
• SUP 3: 132.96 Uptrendline Drawn Off Feb 2 Low
• SUP 4: 128.47 2.0% Lower Bollinger Band

USDJPY rallied sharply into the Friday close, making for a solid bullish break. The new high at 136.46 holds just shy of vol band resistance at 136.67 and 136.98, which could contain a persistent rally this week. Further strength will open 136.67, the Fibonacci retracement for the Oct - Jan bear leg. For now, firm support to watch is at 128.09, the Feb 2 low. The bear trigger is at 127.23, the Jan 16 low - a break would resume the downtrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Solid Weekly Close

• RES 4: 145.83 High Dec 20
• RES 3: 145.69 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 144.53 76.4% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 144.16 High Feb 21
• PRICE: 143.64 @ 08:04 GMT Feb 27
• SUP 1: 140.44 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: 139.56/06 Low Feb 10 and a key support / Low Jan 20
• SUP 3: 137.92 Low Jan 19
• SUP 4: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger

EURJPY traded stronger into the Friday close, but prices held just below the midweek highs at 144.16. This further firms the outlook for the cross, and extends the winning streak posted last week. The recent break of 142.99 confirms a continuation of the recovery that started on Jan 3. The next upside level sits at 144.53, ahead of vol-band resistance at 2.0% 10-dma envelope. Firmer support is expected at 139.94, the Feb 3 low and the outlook remains bullish.

AUDUSD TECHS: Flips Bearish

• RES 4: 0.7245 2.00 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 2: 0.7172 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 1: 0.7082/0.7158 High Feb 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6719 @ 08:06 GMT Feb 27
• SUP 1: 0.6698 Low Feb 27
• SUP 2: 0.6688 Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: 0.6664 50% retracement Oct - Feb Upleg
• SUP 4: 0.6629 Low Dec 20

AUDUSD’s February downtrend accelerated early Monday, with the pair hitting a new pullback low at 0.6698. This makes for a clean break of the 200-dma and 100-dma at 0.6799 and 0.6730 respectively. The break below the DMAs opens fresh losses toward Dec lows at 0.6629. Technical conditions are yet to hit oversold, leaving a lower likelihood of a corrective recovery at this stage.

USDCAD TECHS: Building Base for Recovery

• RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3742 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3665 High Feb 24
• PRICE: 1.3595 @ 08:10 GMT Feb 27
• SUP 1: 1.3275/3262 Low Feb 14 / 2
• SUP 2: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3131 0.764 proj of the Oct 13 - Nov 15 - Dec 16 price swing

USDCAD rallied solidly Friday, topping the recent high of 1.3537. This defies the view that the recent bounce was corrective, as the pair builds a base for further gains. The bull trigger is still someway off at 1.3705, but a weekly close above the 1.3500 would prove constructive. A break of 1.3262, Feb 2 low, would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.3226, the Nov 15 low and the bear trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Pullback Lows Still Under Pressure

• RES 4: 142.59 0.764 proj of the Jan 2 - 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 141.70 High Dec 13
• RES 2: 140.73 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 137.71/139.86 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• PRICE: 133.94 @ 15:04 GMT Feb 24
• SUP 1: 133.63 Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 133.51 Lower 2.0% Bollinger Band
• SUP 3: 133.03 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 132.60 Low Jan 2

Bund futures printed a fresh low Wednesday, extending the mini downtrend posted since the beginning of February. 133.63 marks the new February low, with weakness initially gathering pace on the break below 135.08, opening 132.60 in the short-term. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. On the upside, resistance to watch is at 137.71, the 50-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Cracks to YTD Lows

• RES 4: 119.086 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 3: 118.880 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 117.161/118.670 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• RES 1: 117.460 High Feb 9
• PRICE: 115.590 @ 15:07 GMT Feb 24
• SUP 1: 115.440 Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: 115.248 2.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 3: 115.000 Handle support
• SUP 4: 114.954 1.0% 10-dma envelope

Bobl futures extended recent weakness to hit fresh YTD lows at 115.440 on Friday. Key short-term support at 115.640, the Jan 2 low has given way, opening further losses for the contract, as well as vol band support at 115.248, the 2.0% lower Bollinger Band. On the upside, the resistance to watch is at 117.161, the 50-day EMA. A break above this average would ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Multi-Decade Lows

• RES 4: 106.296 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.130/106.155 High Feb 2 / High Jan 18 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 105.978 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.850 High Feb 7
• PRICE: 105.135 @ 15:14 GMT Feb 24
• SUP 1: 105.065 Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: 104.970 Low Oct 20 2008
• SUP 3: 104.786 Lower 3.0% Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 104.269 1.0% 10-dma Envelope

Schatz futures started the week softer and retained the downside bias well into the Friday close. Further multi-decade low prices were the result, with Schatz futures hitting the lowest levels since 2008. This leaves 104.970 as next downside level, but support is seen scant into vol bands at 104.786 and 104.269. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 106.130, the Feb 2 high and 106.155, the Jan 18 high. Clearance of this resistance zone would reinstate a bullish condition.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Bearish Break Persists

• RES 4: 108.96 2.236 proj of the Jan 23 - 25 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 108.44 2.00 proj of the Jan 23 - 25 - 30 price swing
• RES 2: 107.78 High Feb 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 105.67/106.88 High Feb 9 / 6
• PRICE: 101.27 @ 15:24 GMT Feb 24
• SUP 1: 100.93 Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: 100.53 2.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 3: 100.44 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 99.18 Low Dec 28

Gilt futures printed another pullback low just ahead of the Friday close, marking an extension of the bearish break for the contract. This confirms a reversal of the late January bullish theme, and opens next support at 100.53 initially, vol band support. Initial resistance remains at 105.67, the Feb 9 high, but markets have opened a decent gap with that next upside level.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Stabilises Off Lows

• RES 4: 121.26 0.764 proj of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 120.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 118.56/96 High Jan 19 / Dec 7 and a key resistance zone
• RES 1: 116.33/118.18 High Feb 9 / High Feb 2
• PRICE: 112.87 @ 15:27 GMT Feb 24
• SUP 1: 112.08 Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 111.59 Low Jan 6
• SUP 3: 111.48 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 110.77 Low Jan 4 and 76.4% of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally

BTP futures slipped further early Wednesday, printing a fresh pullback low at 112.08. While prices have stabilised somewhat, the near-term picture remains bearish for now. The next downside levels to watch cross at 111.67, the 2.0% 10-dma envelope. A break would be a bearish development. A reversal higher would signal scope for a test of firm resistance at 118.56, the Jan 19 high and 118.96, the Dec 7 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Bearish Weekly Close

• RES 4: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021
• RES 3: 4335.50 High Jan 6 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4324.50 High Jan 13 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4315.00 High Feb 16
• PRICE: 4211.00 @ 07:41 GMT Feb 27
• SUP 1: 4097.00 Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 2: 4062.40 Bull channel base drawn from the Oct 13 low
• SUP 3: 3890.00 Low Jan 4
• SUP 4: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger

Eurostoxx 50 futures finished near the lows of the week, with the 4175 level the lowest print since early February. Last week, dip buyers emerged on Wednesday to contain any break lower, but the shallow bounce off the Friday lows suggests a lower range to begin the week. Key support remains at 4097.00, the Jan 19 low. Major resistance holds at 4303.20, the 2.382 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Hits February Pullback Low

• RES 4: 4361.00 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4250.00 High Aug 26, 2022
• RES 1: 4208.50 High Feb 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 3983.25 @ 07:47 GMT Feb 27
• SUP 1: 3974.50 Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: 3954.84 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 3901.75 Low Jan 19
• SUP 4: 3788.50 Low Dec 22 and a key support

Further slippage Friday put the S&P E-Minis to fresh February lows, with weakness extending through the close. Last week’s price action put prices below first support at the 50-day EMA at 4024.94 and tilts the near-term view lower. 3901.75 marks next support, the Jan 19 low, although vol band support at 3940.3 could slow any decline. For the outlook to improve, bulls look for a close above the mid-week high at 4034.25.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J3) More Neutral Short-term View

• RES 4: $92.64 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $90.34 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 12 bear leg
• RES 2: $89.00 - High Jan 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $86.95 - High Feb 14
• PRICE: $82.58 @ 07:20 GMT Feb 27
• SUP 1: $80.40/79.10 - Low Feb 23 / 6
• SUP 2: $77.77 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 3: $75.89 - Low Dec 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $73.48 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - Dec 12 - Jan 23 price swing

Brent futures bounced into the Thursday close, erasing the bulk of the mid-week losses. For now, the recent break of $84.00 handle support marks the outlook as more neutral, with a move below $79.10, Feb 6 low, required to reinstate a bearish theme. For bulls to recoup any sway over markets, prices need to top the Feb 13 highs at 86.95.

WTI TECHS: (J3) Recovery Fades, But Medium-Term View Unchanged

• RES 4: $87.00 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $85.33 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 9 bear leg
• RES 2: $83.14 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $80.62 - High Feb 13
• PRICE: $75.83 @ 07:22 GMT Feb 27
• SUP 1: $73.80 - Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: $72.25 - Low Feb 6
• SUP 3: $70.56 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $70.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures drifted lower into the Wednesday close, returning the outlook to neutral for now. Prices now sit back below the 50-day EMA, at $77.97, however the medium-term view remains unchanged. Key resistance remains at $82.66, the Jan 18 high. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at $72.25, the Feb 6 low for the continuation contract.

GOLD TECHS: Envelope Support Contains Break Lower

• RES 4: $1998.4 - High Apr 18, 2022
• RES 3: $1982.0 - High Apr 19, 2022
• RES 2: $1963.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 1: $1892.1/1959.7 - 20-day EMA / High Feb 2
• PRICE: $1809.0 @ 07:25 GMT Feb 27
• SUP 1: $1806.8 - Low Feb 27
• SUP 2: $1797.1 - Low Dec 28
• SUP 3: $1794.7 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: $1787.3 - 50.0% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg

Trend conditions in Gold are bearish for now, with prices trading heavy on the resumption of trade. This marks an extension of the pullback after the strong sell-off on Feb 2 / 3 as well as the break of support at the 50-day EMA. The clear break strengthens the bearish case and suggests scope for a deeper pullback. Vol band support (the 2.0% 10-dma envelope), successfully contained prices so far, keeping the focus on the level this week.

SILVER TECHS: YTD Lows to Start the Week

• RES 4: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 3: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $24.637 - High Feb 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $22.331 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $20.662 @ 07:32 GMT Feb 27
• SUP 1: $20.573 - Low Feb 27
• SUP 2: $20.375 - 2.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 3: $20.265 - 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: $20.058 - Weekly Candle Uptrendline Drawn off 2022 Low

The sharp sell-off in Silver accelerated last week, with Friday marking the first close below the 200-dma since November last year. Moving averages have similarly started to tilt lower, with the mid-February turn in 50-dma underlining the turn lower in momentum. Next major support crosses at the 20.265 Fib retracement for the Sep - Feb upleg, a break below which opens the uptrendline on the weekly candle chart drawn off the 2022 lows.