MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P 500 Bulls Remain In The Driver's Seat

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• In the equity space, a broader uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback has proved to be a correction. This week’s fresh cycle highs, reinforce current trend conditions. A resumption of gains would open 4982.62 next, the 1.50 projection of the Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing. Initial support to watch lies at 4862.80, the 20-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain firm and the contract is holding on to this week’s gains. Key resistance at the Dec 14 high has recently been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and sights are on the 4700.00 handle next. Initial firm support lies at 4569.00, the 20-day EMA.
• In FX, EURUSD maintains a bearish theme and Thursday’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. The bounce from yesterday’s low is considered corrective. The recent move down confirms a resumption of the trend and maintains the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.0724, the Dec 8 low. On the upside, clearance of 1.0932, the Jan 24 high, would signal scope for a stronger recovery. GBPUSD recovered yesterday. Key resistance is unchanged at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high, and key support lies at 1.2597, the Jan 17 low. Both price points represent important directional triggers. Clearance of 1.2827 would resume the uptrend and open 1.2881, 76.4% of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg. For bears, a breach of 1.2597 would highlight a short-term reversal and open the 1.2500 handle, the Dec 13 low. The USDJPY trend outlook is unchanged and remains bullish, and the recent pullback is considered corrective - for now. Moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode set-up. This reinforces the current trend condition and highlights positive market sentiment. A resumption of gains would open 149.16, 76.4% of the Nov 13 - Dec 28 bull leg. Key short-term support is 144.36, the Jan 12 low. A break would signal a top.
• On the commodity front, Gold traded higher yesterday and the yellow metal remains above the Jan 17 low of $2001.9. Recent short-term gains have improved a bullish condition and a continuation higher would open $2088.5, the Dec 28 high and a key resistance. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on $2001.9 where a break is required to reinstate the recent bearish theme. In the oil space, WTI futures are trading just above this week’s low print of $73.70 (Feb 1). The sharp reversal undermines the recent bullish theme. A continuation lower would expose support at $70.62, the Jan 17 low, and $69.56, the Jan 3 low. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $79.29, Jan 29 high. A break of this level is required to reinstate a bullish theme.
• In the FI space, Bund futures are holding on to the bulk of their latest gains. The recent rally suggests the current bull cycle is likely to extend. The contract has breached resistance at 136.16, the Jan 5 / 8 high. A continuation higher would open 136.82, 61.8% of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg. On the downside a reversal lower would instead refocus attention on the key support at 133.55, the Jan 25 low. The trend needle in Gilt futures traded higher yesterday. The contract has this week breached resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 99.51. The break signals potential for an extension of the current corrective cycle and this has exposed resistance at 100.76, 50.0% of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 97.57, the Jan 25 low. Initial support is at 98.79, the Jan 30 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bounce Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.1077 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Jan 5 sell-off
• RES 3: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 2: 1.0932/98 High Jan 24 / 5 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 1.0883 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0881 @ 05:44 GMT Feb 2
• SUP 1: 1.0780 Low Feb 1
• SUP 2: 1.0724 Low Dec 8
• SUP 3: 1.0712 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0656 Low Nov 10

EURUSD maintains a bearish theme and Thursday’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. The bounce from yesterday’s low is considered corrective. The recent move down confirms a resumption of the trend and maintains the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.0724, the Dec 8 low. On the upside, clearance of 1.0932, the Jan 24 high, would signal scope for a stronger recovery.

GBPUSD TECHS: Directional Parameters Remain Intact

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2775 High Jan 24
• PRICE: 1.2748 @ 06:00 GMT Feb 2
• SUP 1: 1.2625/2597 Low Feb 1 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.2525 38.2% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 4: 1.2432 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase

GBPUSD recovered yesterday. Key resistance is unchanged at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high, and key support lies at 1.2597, the Jan 17 low. Both price points represent important directional triggers. Clearance of 1.2827 would resume the uptrend and open 1.2881, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a breach of 1.2597 would highlight a short-term reversal and signal scope for weakness towards the 1.2500 handle, the Dec 13 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20
• RES 3: 0.8715 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 0.8568/8603 20-and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 0.8532 @ 06:10 GMT Feb 02
• SUP 1: 0.8513 Low Jan 29
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 61.8% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

EURGBP bears remain in the driver’s seat. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low, strengthening the current bearish condition. Monday’s extension, further reinforces the downtrend. Sights are on 0.8493, the Aug 23 ‘23 low and a key support. The 50-day EMA - at 0.8603 today - is the initial firm resistance to watch. First resistance is at 0.8568, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback Still In Play

• RES 4: 150.78 High Nov 17
• RES 3: 149.75 High Nov 22
• RES 2: 149.16 76.4% retracement of the Nov 13 - Dec 28 bull leg
• RES 1: 147.93/148.80 High Jan 30 / 19 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 146.45 @ 06:39 GMT Feb 02
• SUP 1: 145.90 Low Feb 1
• SUP 2: 145.59 Low Jan 16
• SUP 3: 144.36 Low Jan 12 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: 143.42 Low Jan 9

The USDJPY trend outlook is unchanged and remains bullish, and the recent pullback is considered corrective - for now. Moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode set-up. This reinforces the current trend condition and highlights positive market sentiment. A resumption of gains would open 149.16, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at 144.36, the Jan 12 low. A break would signal a top.

EURJPY TECHS: Bear Cycle In Play

• RES 4: 163.72 High Nov 27
• RES 3: 162.25 High Nov 29
• RES 2: 160.97/161.86 High Jan 25 / 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 160.34 High Jan 30
• PRICE: 159.32 @ 07:00 GMT Feb 02
• SUP 1: 158.08 Low Feb 1
• SUP 2: 157.21 Low Jan 9 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 156.08 Low Jan 4
• SUP 4: 155.08 Low Jan 2

A bullish trend in EURJPY is intact, however, the current bear cycle remains in play. The cross has cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this signals scope for a deeper pullback. 157.21, the Jan 9 low, presents the next target for bears if the recent run of pressure extends. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 161.86, the Jan 19 high and bull trigger. A break of this level would reinstate the recent bullish theme.

AUDUSD TECHS: Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
• RES 1: 0.6621 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6595 @ 07:40 GMT Feb 02
• SUP 1: 0.6508 Low Feb 1
• SUP 2: 0.6500 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
• SUP 3: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
• SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg

From a trend perspective, a bearish theme in AUDUSD continues to dominate and Thursday’s fresh cycle low, reinforces this condition. The pair has recovered, however, S/T gains are considered corrective. Attention is on 0.6500, a Fibonacci retracement and the next objective. Clearance of this level would further strengthen the current bearish theme. Initial resistance is at 0.6621, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it would be bullish.

USDCAD TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 3: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3608 High Dec 13
• RES 1: 1.3483/3542 High Jan 26 / 17 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3378 @ 07:53 GMT Feb 02
• SUP 1: 1.3359 Low Jan 31
• SUP 2: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 3: 1.3288/3177 Low Jan 5 / Low Dec 27
• SUP 4: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support

The latest pullback in USDCAD is - for now - considered corrective. Recent gains have reinforced a bullish theme and sights are on 1.3542, the Jan 17 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 27 and open 1.3623, 61.8% of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg. The next key support to watch lies at 1.3343, the Jan 12 low. A break would be a bearish development and open 1.3288, the Jan 5 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Breaches Resistance

• RES 4: 137.96 High Jan 4
• RES 3: 137.59 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 2: 136.82 61.8% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 1: 136.29 High Feb 01
• PRICE: 135.71 @ 05:23 GMT Feb 2
• SUP 1: 134.37/133.55 Low Jan 30 / 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 133.42 Low Dec 4
• SUP 3: 132.89 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase
• SUP 4: 132.29 Low Nov 30

Bund futures are holding on to the bulk of their latest gains. The recent rally suggests the current bull cycle is likely to extend. The contract has breached resistance at 136.16, the Jan 5 / 8 high. A continuation higher would open 136.82, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside a reversal lower would instead refocus attention on the key support at 133.55, the Jan 25 low. This level is the bear trigger.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 119.228 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 3: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 118.856 61.8% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 1: 118.660 High Jan 31
• PRICE: 118.280 @ 05:39 GMT Feb 2
• SUP 1: 117.740/280 Low Jan 30 / 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 117.060 Low Dec 1
• SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 116.830 Low Nov 29

A bearish cycle in Bobl futures remains intact, however, recent gains signal potential for a continued correction higher near-term. The contract has traded above the 20-day EMA, at 118.088, and above resistance at 118.590, the Jan 12 high. A continuation higher would open 118.856, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key support has been defined at 117.280, the Jan 25 low and marks the bear trigger.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Correction Appears Likely To Extend

• RES 4: 106.432 76.4% retracement of the Dec 29 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.304 61.8% retracement of the Dec 29 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 2: 106.270 High Jan 5 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 106.215 High Jan 31
• PRICE: 106.050@ 05:48 GMT Feb 02
• SUP 1: 105.930/760 Low Jan 30 / 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 105.730 Low Nov 30
• SUP 3: 105.660 High Nov 17
• SUP 4: 105.470 Low Nov 28

A broader downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears to be a correction - for now. However, the contract has traded above the 20-day EMA. This signals scope for a continuation higher that potentially exposes resistance at 106.270, the Jan 5 high. A breach of this hurdle would highlight a stronger reversal. On the downside, weakness through support at 105.760, the Jan 25 low, would reinstate a bearish theme.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Correction Still In Play

• RES 4: 101.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 3: 101.98 High Jan 3
• RES 2: 100.76 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 1: 100.62 High Feb 1
• PRICE: 100.50 @ Close Feb 01
• SUP 1: 98.79/97.57 Low Jan 30 / 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 97.39 Low Dec 11 and a key support
• SUP 3: 96.67 Low Dec 5
• SUP 4: 96.10 Low Nov 30

Gilt futures traded higher yesterday. The contract has this week breached resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 99.51. The breach signals potential for an extension of the current corrective cycle and this has exposed resistance at 100.76, 50.0% of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 97.57, the Jan 25 low. A reversal lower and a break of this support would confirm a resumption of bearish activity.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Resistance Probed

• RES 4: 122.63 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 122.18 3.00 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 121.43 2.764 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 119.27/77 High Jan 30 / 4
• PRICE:119.14 @ Close Feb 01
• SUP 1: 117.94/116.98 Low Jan 26 / 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8
• SUP 3: 114.10 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 113.31 Low Nov 28

BTP futures have traded higher this week, extending the recovery from 116.98, Jan 25 low, before pulling back. Price has traded above the 20-day EMA and pierced the Jan 12 high of 119.23. A clear break above 119.23 would highlight a base and a potential resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, clearance of last week’s 116.98 low (Jan 25) would confirm a resumption of the recent bearish cycle.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H4) Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 114-06+ 2.00 proj of the Oct 19 - Nov 3 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: 114-00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 113-12 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 113-06+ High Feb 1
• PRICE: 111-27 @ 19:12 GMT Feb 1
• SUP 1: 111-20+/110-26 20-day EMA / Low Jan 19 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 110-16 Low Dec 13
• SUP 3: 109-31+ Low Dec 11 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 109-17 50.0% of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull phase

Treasuries traded higher again today and in the process price breached the 112-26+ resistance, the Jan 12 high. This has improved a bullish condition and attention turns to the key resistance and bull trigger at 113-12, the Dec 27 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Oct 19 last month. On the downside, key support has been defined at 110-26, the Dec 13 low. This level also represents a bear trigger.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Holding On To This Week’s Gains

• RES 4: 4753.50 1.618 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 4725.50 1.50 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 4700.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4697.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4687.00 @ 06:03 GMT Feb 02
• SUP 1: 4599.00/4569.00 High Jan 2 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4500.90 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4402.00 Low Jan 17 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 4370.00 Low Nov 28

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain firm and the contract is holding on to this week’s gains. Key resistance at the Dec 14 high has recently been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and sights are on the 4700.00 handle next. Initial firm support lies at 4569.00, the 20-day EMA. Key trend support has been defined at 4402.00, the Jan 17 low. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 5012.80 1.618 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 5000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 4982.62 1.50 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 4963.75 High Feb 1
• PRICE: 4954.75 @ 07:20 GMT Feb 02
• SUP 1: 4862.80/4764.36 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 4702.00 Low Jan 5
• SUP 3: 4594.00 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 4550.75 Low Nov 16

A broader uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback has proved to be a correction. This week’s fresh cycle highs, reinforce current trend conditions. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition, highlighting positive market sentiment. A resumption of gains would open 4982.62 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 4862.80, the 20-day EMA. Key support is 4764.36, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J4) Sharp Reversal

• RES 4: $89.08 - High Oct 20
• RES 3: $87.12 - High Oct 27
• RES 2: $86.03 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 15 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: $84.17 - High Jan 29 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $79.05 @ 06:47 GMT Feb 02
• SUP 1: $78.57 - Low Feb 1
• SUP 2: $76.13 - Low Jan 17
• SUP 3: $74.82 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 4: $72.96 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger

Brent futures have reversed course and the sharp pullback from $84.17, the Jan 29 high, has resulted in a print below the 50-day EMA, at $79.42. A continuation lower would undermine the recent bullish theme and signal scope for weakness towards $76.13, the Jan 17 low. For bulls, a break of $84.17 is required to reinstate a bullish theme. This would pave the way for a climb towards $86.03, a Fibonacci retracement point.

WTI TECHS: (H4) Pullback Undermines Recent Bullish Theme

• RES 4: $86.68 - High Sep 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $85.71 - High Oct 20
• RES 2: $82.34 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 19 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: $79.29 - High Jan 29 and a key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $74.11 @ 07:00 GMT Feb 02
• SUP 1: $70.62 - Low Jan 17
• SUP 2: $69.56 - Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: $68.28 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $65.63 - Low Jun 12

WTI futures are trading just above this week’s low print of $73.70 (Feb 1). The sharp reversal undermines the recent bullish theme. A continuation lower would expose support at $70.62, the Jan 17 low, and $69.56, the Jan 3 low. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $79.29, Jan 29 high. A break of this level is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Recovery Improves The Bullish Condition

• RES 4: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 3: $2097.1 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 2: $2088.5 - High Jan 12 / High Dec 28
• RES 1: $2065.5 - High Feb 01
• PRICE: $2055.9 @ 07:18 GMT Feb 02
• SUP 1: $2033.0/2001.9 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 17
• SUP 2: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold traded higher yesterday and the yellow metal remains above the Jan 17 low of $2001.9. Recent short-term gains have improved a bullish condition and a continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $2088.5, the Dec 28 high and a key resistance. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on $2001.9 where a break is required to reinstate the recent bearish theme.

SILVER TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $24.606/994 - High Dec 22 / 76.4% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $23.534 - High Jan 12
• PRICE: $23.179 @ 08:01 GMT Feb 02
• SUP 1: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 2: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 2023

A bearish theme in Silver remains intact and the latest recovery appears to be a correction - for now. The recent breach of support at $22.510, the Dec 13 low, signals scope for a move to $21.883, the Nov 13 low. A break of this support would further strengthen the bearish theme. On the upside, initial key short-term resistance to watch is $23.534, the Jan 12 high. A break of this level would be bullish and highlight a stronger reversal.