MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P Bull Cycle Remains In Play

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Uptrend Remains Intact And Resistance Remains Exposed       

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis traded higher again Tuesday, and the contract maintains a firmer tone. Last week’s gains highlight a bullish reversal and the end of the Sep 3 - 6 corrective cycle. Resistance at 5730.50, the Sep 3 high, remains exposed. This level has been pierced, a clear break of it would open 5785.00, the Jul 16 high and a bull trigger. First support is 5592.07, the 50-day EMA. Despite the latest recovery in EUROSTOXX 50 futures, a bear threat remains present. The sell-off between Sep 3 - 10, highlights a potential reversal and note that MA studies are in  a bear-mode set-up. A resumption of the bear leg would open 4686.53, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle. First resistance is at 4863.45, the 50-day EMA. This EMA has been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen a bullish condition and expose 4934.52, 76.4% of the Sep 3 - 10 bear leg.
• In FX, EURUSD has traded higher so far this week, marking an extension of the recovery that started Sep 11. The latest recovery exposes a key resistance at 1.1155, the Sep 6 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a recent bearish theme and open 1.1202, the Aug 26 high and a bull trigger. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.1002, the Sep 11 low. GBPUSD traded higher Monday, extending the latest recovery. The recent move down (since Aug 28) is considered corrective and this has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance and a bull trigger at 1.3266, the Aug 27 high. For bears, a stronger sell-off would instead signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.2993. USDJPY found support Tuesday, however, short-term gains are considered corrective. Bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair has once again traded to a fresh cycle low this week. Sights are on 139.00 next, 1.382 projection of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing. Firm resistance is 143.81, 20-day EMA.          
• On the commodity front, a bullish structure in Gold remains intact and the metal traded, once again, to a fresh all-time high, Monday. Last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. The focus is on $2600.0 next. Firm support lies at $2520.6, the 20-day EMA. In the oil space, the move higher since Sep 9 in WTI futures, appears - for now - to be a correction. Recent weakness reinforced a bearish condition and note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the downtrend would open $63.93 next, 1.618 projection of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing. The 20-day EMA, at $70.99, has been pierced. A clear break of it would open $73.51, the 50-day EMA.
• In the FI space, Bund futures have pulled back from their recent highs. Despite the move lower, a bullish theme remains intact. Gains last week confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Sep 2. Attention is on the key resistance and bull trigger at 135.66, the Aug 5 high. The 20-day EMA marks the initial firm support, at 134.28. A break of this EMA would highlight a potential reversal. A bull cycle in Gilt futures is still in play and the recent pullback is considered corrective. The latest round of gains have resulted in a break of 100.30, the Aug 14 high. This resumes the uptrend and opens 101.78, a 1.00 projection of the Sep 2 - 6 - 9 price swing. Firm short-term support has been defined 99.29, the Sep 9 low. Initial support is 100.01, the 20-day EMA.

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