MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P Bull Cycle Remains In Play
Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Uptrend Remains Intact And Resistance Remains Exposed
- In the equity space, S&P E-Minis traded higher again Tuesday, and the contract maintains a firmer tone. Last week’s gains highlight a bullish reversal and the end of the Sep 3 - 6 corrective cycle. Resistance at 5730.50, the Sep 3 high, remains exposed. This level has been pierced, a clear break of it would open 5785.00, the Jul 16 high and a bull trigger. First support is 5592.07, the 50-day EMA. Despite the latest recovery in EUROSTOXX 50 futures, a bear threat remains present. The sell-off between Sep 3 - 10, highlights a potential reversal and note that MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up. A resumption of the bear leg would open 4686.53, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle. First resistance is at 4863.45, the 50-day EMA. This EMA has been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen a bullish condition and expose 4934.52, 76.4% of the Sep 3 - 10 bear leg.
- In FX, EURUSD has traded higher so far this week, marking an extension of the recovery that started Sep 11. The latest recovery exposes a key resistance at 1.1155, the Sep 6 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a recent bearish theme and open 1.1202, the Aug 26 high and a bull trigger. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.1002, the Sep 11 low. GBPUSD traded higher Monday, extending the latest recovery. The recent move down (since Aug 28) is considered corrective and this has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance and a bull trigger at 1.3266, the Aug 27 high. For bears, a stronger sell-off would instead signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.2993. USDJPY found support Tuesday, however, short-term gains are considered corrective. Bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair has once again traded to a fresh cycle low this week. Sights are on 139.00 next, 1.382 projection of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing. Firm resistance is 143.81, 20-day EMA.
- On the commodity front, a bullish structure in Gold remains intact and the metal traded, once again, to a fresh all-time high, Monday. Last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. The focus is on $2600.0 next. Firm support lies at $2520.6, the 20-day EMA. In the oil space, the move higher since Sep 9 in WTI futures, appears - for now - to be a correction. Recent weakness reinforced a bearish condition and note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the downtrend would open $63.93 next, 1.618 projection of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing. The 20-day EMA, at $70.99, has been pierced. A clear break of it would open $73.51, the 50-day EMA.
- In the FI space, Bund futures have pulled back from their recent highs. Despite the move lower, a bullish theme remains intact. Gains last week confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Sep 2. Attention is on the key resistance and bull trigger at 135.66, the Aug 5 high. The 20-day EMA marks the initial firm support, at 134.28. A break of this EMA would highlight a potential reversal. A bull cycle in Gilt futures is still in play and the recent pullback is considered corrective. The latest round of gains have resulted in a break of 100.30, the Aug 14 high. This resumes the uptrend and opens 101.78, a 1.00 projection of the Sep 2 - 6 - 9 price swing. Firm short-term support has been defined 99.29, the Sep 9 low. Initial support is 100.01, the 20-day EMA.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Recovery Intact
- RES 4: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
- RES 3: 1.1234 1.618 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- RES 2: 1.1202 High Aug 26 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.1155 High Sep 6
- PRICE: 1.1122 @ 05:47 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 1.1067/1002 20-day EMA / Low Sep 11
- SUP 2: 1.0998 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.0940 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.0878 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
EURUSD has traded higher so far this week, marking an extension of the recovery that started Sep 11. The latest recovery exposes a key resistance at 1.1155, the Sep 6 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a recent bearish theme and highlight scope for a stronger recovery towards 1.1202, the Aug 26 high and a bull trigger. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.1002, the Sep 11 low.
GBPUSD TECHS: Sights Are On Key Resistance
- RES 4: 1.3362 1.618 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3328 76.4% retrace of the Jun 2021 - Sep 2022 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3266 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3238 High Sep 6
- PRICE: 1.3159 @ 05:57 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 1.3101/3002 20-day EMA / Low Sep 11
- SUP 2: 1.2993 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2895 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - 27 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.2852 Low Aug 16
GBPUSD traded higher Monday, extending the latest recovery, but has since pulled back. The recent move down (since Aug 28) is considered corrective and this has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance and a bull trigger at 1.3266, the Aug 27 high. For bears, a stronger sell-off would instead signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.2993.
EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 0.8623 High Aug 22
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 2: 0.8465 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8464 High Sep 12
- PRICE: 0.8451 @ 06:18 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 0.8400 Low Aug 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8383 Low Jul 17 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8311 3.00 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
A bearish theme in EURGBP remains intact and the cross continues to trade closer to its most recent lows. The latest move higher remains a shallow correction and still appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern that reinforces current bearish conditions. A break lower would resume the downtrend and open 0.8383, the Jul 17 low and the next key support. Resistance to watch is 0.8465, the 50-day EMA.
USDJPY TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 147.72 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 147.21 High Sep 3
- RES 2: 143.81/145.57 20-day EMA / High Sep 4
- RES 1: 142.06 High Sep 17
- PRICE: 141.41 @ 06:28 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 139.58 Low Sep 16
- SUP 2: 139.00 1.382 proj of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing
- SUP 3: 138.30 1.50 proj of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Jul 28 2023
USDJPY found support Tuesday, however, short-term gains are considered corrective. Bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair has once again traded to a fresh cycle low this week. The recent breach of key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 139.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is 143.81, 20-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 162.89 High Sep 2 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 160.89 High Sep 4
- RES 2: 159.14 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 158.64 High Sep 10
- PRICE: 157.20 @ 06:41 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 155.15 Low Monday 16
- SUP 2: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 154.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
A bear cycle in EURJPY remains intact despite the recovery from Monday’s low. All key retracement points of the rally between Aug 5 - 15, have been cleared and this exposes the key support and bear trigger at 154.42, the Aug 5 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and resume the downtrend. Initial firm resistance is seen at 159.14, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains are considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trading Higher
- RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 ‘23
- RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.6839 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 0.6824 High Aug 29 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6766 @ 07:50 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 0.6683/6622 50-day EMA / Low Sep 11 and key support
- SUP 2: 0.6608 Low Aug 16
- SUP 3: 0.6587 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5- 29 rally
- SUP 4: 0.6565 Low Aug 12
AUDUSD remains firm - for now. Recent gains undermine a bearish theme and key resistance to watch is 0.6824, the Aug 29 high. Clearance of this level would resume the bull cycle that started Aug 5. Initial key near-term resistance is at 0.6767, the Sep 6 high (pierced). A clear break would be a bullish development. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on key short-term support at 0.6622, the Sep 11 low.
USDCAD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 1.3739 High Aug 15
- RES 3: 1.3693 High Aug 19
- RES 2: 1.3625 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3623 High Sep 11
- PRICE: 1.3590 @ 07:54 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 1.3547/3441 Low Sep 9 / Aug 28 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3420 Low Mar 08
- SUP 3: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Aug 5 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 05
USDCAD is in consolidation mode and is trading closer to its latest highs. Recent strength appears to be corrective. Attention is on resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3625. This level remains intact - for now. However, a breach of the EMA would signal scope for a stronger bull cycle. For bears, a clear reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.3441, Aug 28 low and the bear trigger.A break of this level resumes the downtrend that started Aug 5.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bull Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 136.37 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 2 bear leg
- RES 3: 136.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 135.66 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 135.49 High Sep 11
- PRICE: 134.80 @ 05:29 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 134.28/133.52 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 132.65 Low Sep 2 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 132.25 Low Jul 29
- SUP 4: 131.66 Low Jul 26
Bund futures have pulled back from their recent highs. Despite the move lower, a bullish theme remains intact. Gains last week confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Sep 2. Attention is on the key resistance and bull trigger at 135.66, the Aug 5 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. The 20-day EMA marks the initial firm support, at 134.28. A break of this EMA would highlight a potential reversal.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 120.905 1.50 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 3: 120.722 1.382 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.496 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 120.230 High Sep 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 119.700 @ 05:38 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 119.465 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 119.405 50.0% retracement of the Sep 3 - 11 rally
- SUP 3: 119.030 Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and key support
A bullish condition in Bobl futures remains intact, despite the latest pullback. The move higher on Sep 11 resulted in a print above key resistance and the bull trigger at 120.130, the Aug 5 high. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 120.496, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is 119.465, the 20-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 107.474 1.382 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 3: 107.373 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 107.210 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 107.155 High Sep 11
- PRICE: 106.920 @ 05:24 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 106.836/765 20-day EMA / Low Sep 6
- SUP 2: 106.675 Low Sep 4
- SUP 3: 106.520 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 105.975 High Jun 14 (cont)
A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains intact despite the latest pullback. The move higher last week resulted in a break of 107.047, 76.4% of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 107.210, the Aug 5 high. Clearance of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Initial support lies at 106.836, the 20-day EMA.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Trend Direction Remains Up
- RES 4: 102.37 1.236 proj of the Sep 2 - 6 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 102.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 101.78 1.00 proj of the Sep 2 - 6 - 9 price swing
- RES 1: 101.54 High Sep 17
- PRICE: 101.04 @ Close Sep 17
- SUP 1: 100.64 High Sep 10 and a gap low on the daily chart
- SUP 2: 99.83 Low Sep 10
- SUP 3: 99.91 20-day EMA
- SUP 4: 99.29 Low Sep 9
A bull cycle in Gilt futures is still in play and the recent pullback is considered corrective. The latest round of gains have resulted in a break of 100.30, the Aug 14 high. This resumes the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. 101.78 marks the next objective, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term support has been defined 99.29, the Sep 9 low. Initial support is 100.64, the Sep 10 high.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 122.22 3.00 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 121.66 2.764 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- PRICE: 121.02 @ Close Sep 17
- SUP 1: 119.93/118.16 20-day EMA / Low Sep 2 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 118.00 Low Jul 29
- SUP 3: 116.21 Low Jul 9
- SUP 4: 115.14 Low Jul 1
The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish and this week’s trend high reinforces this condition. The contract has breached 121.43, the Dec 27 ‘23 high (cont) and a key resistance. This strengthens the uptrend and confirms an extension of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 122.00 handle. Initial firm support lies at 119.93, the 20-day EMA. The latest pullback is considered corrective.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z4) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 116-07 1.764 proj of the Aug 8 - 21 - Sep 3
- RES 3: 116-00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 115-31 1.618 proj of the Aug 8 - 21 - Sep 3
- RES 1: 115-23+ High Sep 11
- PRICE: 115-12+ @ 19:46 BST Sep 17
- SUP 1: 114-31+/19 Low Sep 12 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 114-00+ Low Sep 4
- SUP 3: 113-12 Low Sep 3
- SUP 4: 113-06+ 50-day EMA
Treasuries maintain a bullish theme and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. Last Wednesday’s push higher resulted in a print above key resistance and the bull trigger at 115-19, the Aug 5 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards the 116.00 handle. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear medium-term uptrend. Firm support is seen at 114-19, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 5087.00 High Jul 12 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 5012.00 High Jul 16
- RES 2: 4998.00 High Sep 3 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 4863.47/4934.52 50-day EMA / 76.4% of Sep 3 - 10 bear leg
- PRICE: 4856.00 @ 06:09 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 4729.00 Low Sep 10
- SUP 2: 4686.53 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 4612.94 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4558.00 Low Aug 6
Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding on to their recent gains. Despite the latest recovery, a bear threat remains present. The sell-off between Sep 3 - 10, highlights a potential reversal and note that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up. A resumption of the bear leg would signal scope for weakness towards 4686.53, a Fibonacci retracement point. First resistance is at 4863.45, the 50-day EMA. This EMA has been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen a bullish condition.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Testing Resistance
- RES 4: 5868.50 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5785.00 High Jul 16 and key resistance
- RES 1: 5730.50/5737.00 High Sep 3 / 17
- PRICE: 5709.50 @ 07:22 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 5592.07/5451.25 50-day EMA / Low Sep 6 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 5424.75 Low Aug 13
- SUP 3: 5383.49 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5301.51 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull leg
S&P E-Minis traded higher again Tuesday, and the contract maintains a firmer tone. Last week’s gains highlight a bullish reversal and the end of the Sep 3 - 6 corrective cycle. The contract is trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs and resistance at 5730.50, the Sep 3 high, remains exposed. This level has been pierced, a clear break of it would open 5785.00, the Jul 16 high and a bull trigger. First support is 5592.07, the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (X4) Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: $83.74 - High Jul 18
- RES 3: $80.53/81.46 - High Aug 26 / 12 and key resistance
- RES 2: $76.83 - 50-day EMA
- RES 1: $74.11/28 - 20-day EMA / High Oct
- PRICE: $73.26 @ 07:01 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: $68.68 - Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $67.63 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 3: $65.95 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.24 - 2.00 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures remain in a downtrend and, despite trading higher this week, the latest recovery appears to be a correction. Recent weakness confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on $67.63, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the downtrend is oversold. A stronger recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance is at $74.11, the 20-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (V4) Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: $78.54 - High Aug 12 and key resistance
- RES 3: $77.60 - High Aug 26
- RES 2: $73.51 - 50-day EMA
- RES 1: $71.92 - High Sep 17
- PRICE: $70.79 @ 07:18 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: $65.27 - Low Sep 10
- SUP 2: $63.93 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $56.79 - 2.318 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
WTI futures are holding on to their latest gains. The move higher since Sep 9, appears - for now - to be a correction. Recent weakness reinforced a bearish condition and note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the downtrend would open $63.93 next, a Fibonacci projection point. The 20-day EMA, at $70.99, has been pierced. A clear break of it would open $73.51, the 50-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: $2660.9 - 2.382 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2642.7 - 2.236 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 2: $2613.3.0 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2600.0 - Round number resistance
- PRICE: $2567.7 @ 07:18 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 2556.8 - Low Sep 13
- SUP 2: $2520.6/2472.0 - 20-day EMA / Low Sep 4
- SUP 3: $2470.9 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $2417.0 - Low Sep 8
A bullish structure in Gold remains intact and the metal traded, once again, to a fresh all-time high, Monday. Last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and marked the end of the recent period of consolidation - a pause in the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. The focus is on $2600.0 next. Firm support lies at $2520.6, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Theme
- RES 4: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: $32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $31.754 - High Jul 11
- RES 1: $31.097 - High Sep 16
- PRICE: $30.599 @ 08:03 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: $29.079 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $27.686/26.451 - Low Sep 6 / Low Aug 8
- SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
- SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
Silver traded sharply higher last week and the metal is holding on to its recent gains. This undermines a recent bearish theme and note that key short-term resistance at $30.192, the Aug 26 high, has been cleared. The break strengthens a bullish theme and signals scope for an extension towards $31.754, Jul 11 high. Key short-term support has been defined at $27.686, Sep 6 low. A breach of this level is required to reinstate a bearish theme.