MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Stocks Fail at Key Resistance

Price Signal Summary – Stocks Fail at Key Resistance

• S&P E-Minis have failed to overcome resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 4169.30. The pullback signals the potential end of a corrective cycle between May 20 - 31. A deeper pullback would pave the way for weakness towards the key support and bear trigger at 3807.50, the May 20 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have weakened and price is once again trading below the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 3744.50 today. The move lower threatens a recent bull theme, and an extension lower would open support at 3576.00, the May 19 low.
• EURUSD gains on Thursday were short lived and the pair reversed course from the session high. This resulted in a print below support at 1.0627, the Jun 1 low. The move lower also means channel resistance at 1.0733 remains intact. EURJPY has drifted off this week’s highs. A move lower however is considered corrective The latest rally, above 140.00, confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 7. Moving average studies continue to point north, reinforcing current conditions and signalling potential for a continuation higher. A sharp rally in USDCAD Thursday highlights a potential short-term reversal. Key near-term support has been defined at 1.2518, the Jun 8 low. An extension higher would signal potential for a climb towards resistance at 1.2896, the May 19 high.
• The short-term outlook in Gold is bullish and attention remains on the 50-day EMA, at $1871.7. A break of this EMA is required to signal scope for a stronger rally. Note that recent gains are still considered corrective and the primary trend direction remains down. WTI futures remain in an uptrend and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Futures on May 31, breached resistance at $116.43, Mar 7 high and a former contract high.
• A bearish theme and strong downward price pressure continued to deliver fresh lows again yesterday in Bund futures. Price has recently cleared support at 150.97, May 9 low. Gilt futures traded lower Thursday. The move down this week confirms a resumption of the downtrend and an extension of the latest bear leg that began May 19.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Channel Top Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.0936 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0852 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 1.0787 High May 30
• RES 1: 1.0733/74 Bear channel top from Feb 10 high / High Jun 9
• PRICE: 1.0637 @ 06:15 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 1.0611/0533 Low Jun 9 and intraday low / Low May 20
• SUP 2: 1.0461 Low May 18 and19
• SUP 3: 1.0350 Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support

EURUSD gains on Thursday were short lived and the pair reversed course from the session high. This resulted in a print below support at 1.0627, the Jun 1 low. The move lower also means channel resistance at 1.0733 remains intact. The channel is drawn from the Feb 10 high and the top remains a key resistance. A clear break is required to strengthen bullish conditions. For bears, an extension lower would open 1.0533, the May 20 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Support Stays Intact

• RES 4: 1.2772 High Apr 26
• RES 3: 1.2673 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.2667 High May 27 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.2590 High Jun 3
• PRICE: 1.2506 @ 06:24 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 1.2431 Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: 1.2317 Low May 17
• SUP 3: 1.2277 76.4% retracement of the May 13 - 27 upleg
• SUP 4: 1.2156 Low May 13 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD is slightly weaker but remains inside its range. Support at 1.2431, Tuesday’s low, is intact and marks a key short-term level. The focus is on the 50-day EMA which intersects at 1.2673. A break of this EMA is still required to strengthen short-term bullish conditions. The primary trend direction is down though. A resumption of bearish activity would open 1.2317 initially, the May 17 low and the bear trigger at 1.2156, May 13 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Pullback Still Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.8658 High Sep 29 2021
• RES 3: 0.8643 High Sep 30 2021
• RES 2: 0.8619 High May 12 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8592 High Jun 9
• PRICE: 0.8505 @ 06:30 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 0.8467/8433 50-day EMA / Low May 23
• SUP 2: 0.8393/ 0.8391 Low May 17 / 61.8% of Apr 14 - May 12 upleg
• SUP 3: 0.8367 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 0.8337 76.4% retracement of the Apr 14 - May 12 upleg

EURGBP traded in a volatile manner Thursday, revisiting the week’s lows of 0.8492. Pullbacks are still considered corrective. The recovery since May 17, highlights a bullish theme and signals scope for a climb to 0.8619, May 12 high and a key hurdle for bulls. Moving average studies are in a bull mode. A break of 0.8619 would resume the uptrend that started Mar 7. Key short-term support is unchanged at 0.8393, May 17 low. A break would be bearish.

USDJPY TECHS: Eyeing 135.00

• RES 4: 136.04 1.382 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 135.15 High Jan 31 2002 and a key congestion area
• RES 2: 135.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 134.56 High Jun 9
• PRICE: 133.83 @ 06:38 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 131.87 Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: 130.43/130.20 Low Jun 6 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 127.65 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 126.36 Low May 24 and key support

USDJPY bulls have paused for breath. The outlook remains bullish though - a marginal new high Thursday means the pair has delivered higher highs for ten consecutive sessions. The extension maintains the broader bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and with moving average studies pointing north, indications are that the USD has further to go. The focus is on the 135.00 handle. Initial firm support is seen at 130.20, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 146.74 High Dec 30 2014
• RES 3: 145.58 High Dec 31 2014
• RES 2: 145.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 144.58 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 price swing
• PRICE: 142.32 @ 06:44 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 141.84 Low Jun 8
• SUP 2: 140.00 High Apr 21 and recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 138.92/32/52 20-day EMA / High May 9
• SUP 4: 136.86 50-day EMA

EURJPY has drifted off this week’s highs. A move lower however is considered corrective The latest rally, above 140.00, confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 7. Moving average studies continue to point north, reinforcing current conditions and signalling potential for a continuation higher. The focus is on 144.58 next, a Fibonacci projection and 145.00 is also within range. Firm S/T support is seen at 140.00, the recent bull trigger.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trades Below the 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.7465 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.7400 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 0.7343 61.8% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.7202/7283 High Jun 9 / High Jun 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.7122 @ 06:53 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 0.7085/7036 Intraday low / May 25
• SUP 2: 0.6950 Low May 18
• SUP 3: 0.6829 Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020

AUDUSD traded lower Thursday resulting in a move below the 50-day EMA, threatening the recent bull cycle. Price action has defined a key short-term resistance at 0.7283, Jun 3 high. A break of this level is required to reinstate a bullish outlook. An extension lower would expose support at 0.6950, May 18 low ahead of the key support and bear trigger at 0.6829, the May 12 low. A breach of this level would resume the broader downtrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Recovers From Recent Lows

• RES 4: 1.3077 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2982 High May 16
• RES 2: 1.2896 High May 18 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2718/84 50-day EMA / High May 27
• PRICE: 1.2694 @ 07:03 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 1.2518 Low Jun 8
• SUP 2: 1.2459 Low Apr 21
• SUP 3: 1.2403/02 Low Apr 5 and key support / 2.0% 10-dma env
• SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10. 2021

A sharp rally in USDCAD Thursday highlights a potential short-term reversal. Key near-term support has been defined at 1.2518, the Jun 8 low. An extension higher would signal potential for a climb towards resistance at 1.2896, the May 19 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness and a breach of 1.2518 would again expose 1.2459, Apr 21 low and 1.2403 further out, the Apr 5 low and a key support.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Fresh Cycle Lows

• RES 4: 155.27 High May 26
• RES 3: 153.36 High May 31
• RES 2: 151.67/152.34 20-day EMA / Low May 18
• RES 1: 149.92/150.97 High Jun 7 / Low May 9
• PRICE: 147.74 @ 04:53 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 147.32 Low Jun 9
• SUP 2: 146.68 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 145.85 1.764 proj of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 145.00 Round number support

A bearish theme and strong downward price pressure continued to deliver fresh lows again yesterday in Bund futures. Price has recently cleared support at 150.97, May 9 low. The contract is also below the 150.00 handle. This marks a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 146.68 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is at 151.67, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Bear Leg Accelerates

• RES 4: 125.380 Low May 18
• RES 3: 125.021 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 124.490/990 High Jun 3 and Jun 2
• RES 1: 124.190 High Jun 9
• PRICE: 123.100 @ 05:01 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 122.870 Low Jun 9
• SUP 2: 122.730 2.236 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 122.470 2.382 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 122.260 2.50 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing

Bobl futures remain soft with fresh low prints registered again yesterday. The downtrend has accelerated and this suggests scope for a continuation lower. The recent breach of 124.840, May 6 low confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and has maintained the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 122.730 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 125.021, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Southbound

• RES 4: 109.850 High May 26
• RES 3: 109.348/445 20-day EMA / Low May 18
• RES 2: 109.300 High Jun 2
• RES 1: 109.180 High Jun 3 and 9
• PRICE: 108.685 @ 05:11 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 108.665 Low Jun 9
• SUP 2: 108.600 2.00 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 108.452 2.236 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 108.361 2.382 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing

Bearish conditions continue to prevail and Schatz futures remain soft. The bear leg accelerated yesterday and fresh cycle lows confirm an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This also suggests scope for a continuation of the downtrend. The focus is on 108.600 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 109.180, the Jun 3 / 9 high.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Bear Leg Extension

• RES 4: 118.51 High May 26
• RES 3: 117.49 High May 31
• RES 2: 116.20 High Jun 1
• RES 1: 115.55 High Jun 6
• PRICE: 113.99 @ Close Jun 9
• SUP 1: 113.63 Low Jun 9
• SUP 2: 113.56 2.50 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 113.33 2.618 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 113.04 2.764 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing

Gilt futures traded lower Thursday. The move down this week confirms a resumption of the downtrend and an extension of the latest bear leg that began May 19. This also maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Price has cleared 115.00 and the focus is on 113.56 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at 111.55, high Jun 6. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Continues To Point South

• RES 4: 127.79 High May 26
• RES 3: 126.43 High May 31
• RES 2: 124.50/125.13 20-day EMA / Low May 24
• RES 1: 123.38 High Jun 7
• PRICE: 119.85 @ Close Jun 9
• SUP 1: 119.58 Low Jun 9
• SUP 2: 119.14 2.236 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 118.57 2.382 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 118.11 2.50 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing

The primary trend condition in BTP futures remains bearish and yesterday’s strong sell-off reinforces this theme. The recent break of 123.88, May 9 low and a bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. 120.00 has been breached, the focus is on 119.14 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at 123.38 Jun 7 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Pulls Away From Recent Highs

• RES 4: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 3888.00 High Apr 5
• RES 2: 3883.00 High Apr 21
• RES 1: 3857.00 High Jun 6 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 3687.00 @ 05:42 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 3628.00 Low May 25
• SUP 2: 3576.00 Low May 19
• SUP 3: 3466.00 Low May 10 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3458.90 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally

EUROSTOXX 50 futures have weakened and price is once again trading below the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 3744.50 today. The move lower threatens a recent bull theme, and an extension lower would open support at 3576.00, the May 19 low. The major support and bear trigger is still far-off at 3466.00, May 10 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 3857.00, Jun 6 high and represents a bull trigger.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Fails To Breach The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4509.00 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 4393.25 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 4303.50 High Apr 26/28 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4169.30/4202.25 50-day EMA / High May 31
• PRICE: 4024.50 @ 07:00 BST June 10
• SUP 1: 3960.50/3807.50 Low May 26 / Low May 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3801.97 38.2% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 bull leg (cont)
• SUP 3: 3787.74 2.618 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 3747.52 2.764 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing

S&P E-Minis have failed to overcome resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 4169.30. The pullback signals the potential end of a corrective cycle between May 20 - 31. A deeper pullback would pave the way for weakness towards the key support and bear trigger at 3807.50, the May 20 low. A breach of this level would resume the downtrend. Key short-term resistance, just above the 50-day EMA, is at 4202.25, May 31 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q2) Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $126.95 - 1.764 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: $125.04 - 1.618 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: $124.42 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $124.40 - High Jun 8
• PRICE: $122.62 @ 07:05 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: $115.66 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $112.45 - Low Jun 2
• SUP 3: $109.64 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $103.84 - Low May 19 and a key support

Brent futures are trading closer to their recent highs. The outlook is bullish and futures maintains a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows - the definition of an uptrend. Scope is seen for a test of the contract high of 124.42, Mar 7 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, the 20-day EMA, at $115.66, is seen as initial support. A break would suggest scope for a deeper corrective pullback.

WTI TECHS: (N2) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $125.73 - 1.382 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 3: $124.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $123.35 - 1.236 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 1: $123.18 - High Jun 7
• PRICE: $121.26 @ 07:13 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: $117.14/114.15 - Low Jun 7 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $107.48 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $103.24 - Low May 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: $100.00 - Round number support

WTI futures remain in an uptrend and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Futures on May 31, breached resistance at $116.43, Mar 7 high and a former contract high. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and paved the way for an extension higher. The contract has also traded above the psychological $120.00 handle, strengthening current trend conditions. Firm support is seen at $114.15, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Eyeing The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1919.9 - High Apr 29 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 2: $1874.1 - High May 24
• RES 1: $1871.7 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1845.0 @ 07:18 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: $1828.6 - Low Jun 1
• SUP 2: $1807.5/1787.0 - Low May 18 / Low May 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021

The short-term outlook in Gold is bullish and attention remains on the 50-day EMA, at $1871.7. A break of this EMA is required to signal scope for a stronger rally. Note that recent gains are still considered corrective and the primary trend direction remains down. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on the May 16, $1787.0 low. This is the bear trigger, a break would resume the downtrend that began Mar 8.

SILVER TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
• RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• RES 2: $22.715 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $22.517 - High Jun 6
• PRICE: $21.690 @ 07:59 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: $21.435/20.464 - Low Jun 1 / Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Silver remains below its recent highs. The metal recently tested levels above resistance at $22.446, May 27 high. A clear break of this level is required to suggest scope for an extension higher that would open the 50-day EMA at $22.715. For bears, a resumption of weakness would signal potential for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $20.464, the May 13 low. Initial support to watch is $21.435, the Jun 1 low.