MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Stocks Remain Vulnerable Despite Bounce

Price Signal Summary – Stocks Remain Vulnerable Despite Bounce

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis remain vulnerable following Friday's sell-off and despite today's bounce. The move lower highlights the short-term importance of the recent bearish shooting star formation (on Nov 22) that warned of a short-term top and scope for a deeper corrective pullback. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded sharply lower Friday. The sell-off resulted in a break of the Nov 24 low of 4236.50 and more importantly a breach of the 50-day EMA.
• In FX, trend conditions are unchanged in the USD and the uptrend remains firmly intact. EURUSD traded higher Friday but despite these gains, the outlook remains bearish. Last week's move lower reinforced bearish conditions and confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. GBPUSD bears have paused for breath. Last week's breach of 1.3353, Nov 12 low confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.USDJPY remains vulnerable following Friday's sharp sell-off. The move lower resulted in a break of support at 113.59, Nov 19 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold is still consolidating and remains vulnerable. The yellow metal sold off sharply early last week extending the move lower from $1877.2, the Nov 16 high. Price has also traded below the 20- and the 50-day EMAs. WTI futures remain vulnerable. Friday's breach of support at $74.76, low Nov 22 and the subsequent sharp sell-off has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend.
• In the FI space, Bund futures recovered from recent lows Friday and importantly, support at 170.06, the Nov 5 low has remained intact. This suggests the recent move lower has been a correction and that a short-term uptrend remains intact. Gilt futures rallied Friday and the contract gapped higher at the open. This price action negates recent bearish concerns and resistance at 125.96, Nov 22 high and the key short -term hurdle at 126.23, Nov 9 high have been breached.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 1.1755 High Sep 22
• RES 3: 1.1600/92 Bear channel top from Jun 1 high / High Oct 28
• RES 2: 1.1514 Low Nov 5
• RES 1: 1.1374/1383 High Nov 18 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1281 @ 05:54 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 1.1185 Low Jul 1, 2020
• SUP 2: 1.1128 1.764 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1040 76.4% retracement of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 uptrend
• SUP 4: 1.0976 2.00 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing

EURUSD traded higher Friday but despite these gains, the outlook remains bearish. Last week's move lower reinforced bearish conditions and confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average conditions point south too. The focus is on 1.1185 next, Jul 1 2020 low ahead of 1.1128, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 1.1374, Nov 18 high with the 20-day EMA at 1.1383.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bears Pause For Breath

• RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20
• RES 3: 1.3698 High Nov 4
• RES 2: 1.3514/3607 High Nov 18 and a key resistance / High Nov 9
• RES 1: 1.3461 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3318 @ 16:56 GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 1.3279 Low Nov 26
• SUP 2: 1.3216 1.236 proj of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.3188 Low Dec 21 2020
• SUP 4: 1.3165 38.2% Mar '20 - Jun '21 Upleg

GBPUSD bears have paused for breath. Last week's breach of 1.3353, Nov 12 low confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, moving average studies remain in a bear mode, reinforcing current bearish conditions. The focus is on 1.3216 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Firm resistance has been defined at 1.3514, Nov 9 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 0.8595 High Nov 5 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8538/74 High Nov 15 / High Nov 11
• RES 2: 0.813 61.8% retracement of the Nov 5 - 22 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.8496 High Nov 26
• PRICE: 0.8458 @ 06:27 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 0.8411/8381 Low Nov 26 / Low Nov 22
• SUP 2: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.8339 Low Feb 25, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.8282/77 Low Feb 18, 2020 / Low Dec 13, 2019

EURGBP traded sharply higher Friday. Trend conditions however remain bearish following the recent sharp sell-off and break of 0.8403, Oct 26 low. The short-term focus is on 0.8356 next, Feb 26, 2020 low. Note that the cross is also approaching the base of a broad multi-year range at 0.8300/8280. This area represents a major support. Key intraday resistance is at Friday's high of 0.8496.

USDJPY TECHS: Testing Its 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 116.87 High Jan 11, 2017
• RES 3: 116.09 1.764 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 2: 115.52 High Nov 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 114.19 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 113.13 @ 06:21 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 112.73 Low Nov 9 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 2: 112.08 High Sep 30 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 111.32 61.8% retracement of theAug - Nov rally
• SUP 4: 110.82 Low Oct 4

USDJPY remains vulnerable following Friday's sharp sell-off. The move lower resulted in a break of support at 113.59, Nov 19 low. This highlights a stronger short-term bearish threat and the pair is testing the 50-day EMA at 113.21. This average represents an area of trend support and a clear break would strengthen a bearish case and expose 112.73, Nov 9 low. Key resistance has been defined at 115.52, the Nov 24 high and is the bull trigger.

EURJPY TECHS: Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 131.59 High Nov 5
• RES 3: 130.37 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 129.60/129.99 High Nov 23 / High Nov 19
• RES 1: 128.67 Intraday high
• PRICE: 127.67 @ 06:14 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 127.28 1.00 proj of the Jun 1 - Sep 22 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 2: 127.04 Low Feb 15
• SUP 3: 126.65 Low Feb 10
• SUP 4: 125.82 1.236 proj of the Jun1 - Sep 22 - Oct 20 price swing

EURJPY has resumed its downtrend. Friday's sell-off resulted in a print below 127.93, Sep 22 low and today's extension reinforces the current bearish theat. The break paves the way for weakness towards 127.04, Feb 15 low and note that MA studies also point south suggesting scope for a deeper sell-off further out. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 129.60, Nov 23 high where a break is required to ease current bearish pressure.

AUDUSD TECHS: Heavy!

• RES 4: 0.7432/7471 High Nov 9 / High Nov 4
• RES 3: 0.7371 High Nov 15
• RES 2: 0.7266/7305 Former channel base / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7228 High Nov 24
• PRICE: 0.7137 @ 06:33 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 0.7106 Low Aug 20 and a major support
• SUP 2: 0.7049 Low Nov 4, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.7028 Low Nov 3 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6991 Low Nov 2 2020

AUDUSD remains soft and the slide accelerated Friday. Last week's price action resulted in a break of the base of its bull channel drawn from the Aug 20 low. Furthermore, support at 0.7170, Sep 29 low has been cleared, reinforcing bearish conditions. Moving average signals have also recently shifted to bear mode, highlighting the current bearish theme. This has exposed key support at 0.7106, Aug 20 low. Initial resistance is 0.7228.

USDCAD TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 1.2949 High Aug 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2893/96 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Sep 20
• RES 2: 1.2849 High Sep 21
• RES 1: 1.2799 High Nov 26
• PRICE: 1.2746 @ 06:48 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 1.2641 Low Nov 25
• SUP 2: 1.2585/2493 20-day EMA / Low Nov 16
• SUP 3: 1.2387 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 1.2288 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger

USDCAD outlook remains bullish as markets continue to clawback losses posted since the September high. Price has confirmed a break of 1.2753, 76.4% of the Sep 20 - Oct 21 sell-off as well as 1.2775, Sep 29 high. This strengthens the current bullish set-up and sets the scene for a climb towards 1.2896, the Sep 20 high. On the downside, a key short-term support has been defined at 1.2641, the Nov 25 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 173.93 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 173.54 High Aug 31
• RES 2: 172.95 76.4% retracement of the Aug - Nov sell-off
• RES 1: 172.57 High Nov 22 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 172.05 @ 05:09 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 170.31/171.14 Low Nov 24 / Low Nov 26
• SUP 2: 170.06 Low Nov 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 168.98 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 167.69 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger

Bund futures recovered from recent lows Friday and importantly, support at 170.06, the Nov 5 low has remained intact. This suggests the recent move lower has been a correction and that a short-term uptrend remains intact. The break on Nov 19 of the 171.95 - 61.8% of the Aug - Nov sell-off opens 172.95, the 76.4% retracement. On the downside, sub 170.06 levels would alter the picture and highlight a bearish threat.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Needle Pointing North

• RES 4: 136.14 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 136.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 135.870 High Sep 3
• RES 1: 135.700 High Nov 26 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 135.530 @ 05:14 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 134.993 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 134.700/320 Low Nov 11 / Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 133.900/690 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 133.340 Low Mar 19 and key medium-term support (cont)

Bobl futures recovered Friday and remained above 134.993, the 50-day EMA. The pullback early last week appears corrective. A bullish theme follows the break on Nov 19 of 135.320, Nov 15 high. This confirms a resumption of the S/T uptrend and opens 135.870 next, Sep 3 high. The break also signals scope for a climb towards 136.00 and beyond. Key S/T support is at 134.700, Nov 11 low. A break would reverse the direction.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Probes Resistance

• RES 4: 112.656 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Jun 2020 sell-off
• RES 3: 112.600 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 112.585 High Mar 17 2020 (cont)
• RES 1: 112.515 High Nov 26
• PRICE: 112.445 @ 112:445 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 112.337/275 20- and 50-day EMAs
• SUP 2: 112.100 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 112.050 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 111.945 Low Oct 28 and major support

The Schatz futures outlook remains bullish. The contract on Friday probed resistance at 112.495, Nov 22 high. A clear breach would again confirm a resumption of the short-term uptrend and pave the way for gains towards 112.585 next, Mar 17 2020 high (cont). Moving average conditions have recently turned bullish reinforcing the positive theme. Initial firm support lies at 112.275, the 50-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (H2) Clears Resistance

• RES 4: 127.69 High Sep 3
• RES 3: 127.36 High Sep 7
• RES 2: 127.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 126.56 High Nov 26
• PRICE: 126.50 @ Close GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 125.44 Low Nov 26 and gap high
• SUP 2: 124.94 High Nov 25 and gap low
• SUP 3: 124.48 Low Nov 25
• SUP 4: 124.17 Low Nov 24 and key support

Gilt futures rallied Friday and the contract gapped higher at the open. This price action negates recent bearish concerns and resistance at 125.96, Nov 22 high and the key short -term hurdle at 126.23, Nov 9 high have been breached. The clear break strengthens the near-term outlook for bulls and opens the 127.00 handle. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 124.17, Nov 24 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Recovers Off Last Week's Low

• RES 4: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 153.59 High Sep 24
• RES 1: 151.77/153.12 50-day EMA / High Nov 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 151.66 @ Close GMT Nov 26
• SUP 1: 149.59 Low Nov 24 and key support
• SUP 2: 149.41 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - 10 rally
• SUP 3: 148.54 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - 10 rally
• SUP 4: 147.12 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger

BTP futures traded lower in the first half of last week. The move down resulted in a break of support at 150.72, Nov 12 low that undermines the recent bull theme. A deeper sell-off would open 149.41, a Fibonacci retracement level and potentially lower. However, the contract has bounced off 149.59, Nov 24 low. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger is at 153.12, Nov 10 high. Initial resistance to watch is at 151.77, the 50-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Risk Remains Present

• RES 4: 4420.80 1.382 proj of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - Oct 6 price swing
• RES 3: 4409.50 High Nov 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4304.50 Nov 24 high and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4231.60 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 4135.00 @ 05:48 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 4032.00 Low NOv 26
• SUP 2: 4004.00 Low Oct 12
• SUP 3: 3949.50 Low Oct 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3882.00 Low Jul 19

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded sharply lower Friday. The sell-off resulted in a break of the Nov 24 low of 4236.50 and more importantly a breach of the 50-day EMA. In the process a number of retracement levels were cleared too. Attention is on Friday's low of 4032.00 where a break would open 4004.00 ahead of key support at the 3949.50 Oct 6 low. On the upside, a move above 4304.50, the Nov 24 high is required to ease bearish pressure.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4783.40 1.764 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: 4740.50/46.68 High Nov 22 / 1.618 of Jul 19-Aug 16-19 swing
• RES 1: 4717.00 High Nov 26
• PRICE: 4637.50 @ 06:53 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 4577.25 Low Nov 26
• SUP 2: 4563.83/4543.75 50-day EMA / Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 4472.00 High Sep 27
• SUP 4: 4317.25/4260.00 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 1 and the bear trigger

S&P E-minis remain vulnerable following Friday's sell-off and despite today's bounce. The move lower highlights the short-term importance of the recent bearish shooting star formation (on Nov 22) that warned of a short-term top and scope for a deeper corrective pullback. Support at 4625.25 level, Nov 10 low has been breached to strengthen the short-term case for bears. This has opened the 50-day EMA at 4563.83. Key resistance is at 4740.50.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F2) Bearish Risk Still Present

• RES 4: $87.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $85.77 - High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $80.08/83.00 - 50-day EMA / High Nov 24
• RES 1: $77.58 - Low Nov 22
• PRICE: $75.59 @ 07:06 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: $71.90 - 61.8% retracement of the Aug 23 - Oct 25 rally
• SUP 2: $69.57 - Low Sep 9
• SUP 3: $68.62 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 23 - Oct 25 rally
• SUP 4: $67.15 - Low Aug 24

Brent futures remain vulnerable. The contract on Friday, cleared former support at $77.58, Nov 22 low to strengthen the current bearish condition that was also reinforced by Friday's sharp reversal lower. The break lower also marks an extension of the current bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Attention is on weakness towards $71.90 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is seen at $77.58.

WTI TECHS: (F2) Still Vulnerable

• RES 4: $83.30/83.83 - High Nov 10 / High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $79.23/80.68 - High Nov 24 / Low Nov 4 / High Nov 16
• RES 2: $77.09 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $74.76 - Low Nov 22
• PRICE: $71.62 @ 08:03 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: $67.40 - Low Nov 26
• SUP 2: $66.21 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 23 - Oct 25 rally
• SUP 3: $64.39 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $60.77 - Low Aug 23 and a key support

WTI futures remain vulnerable. Friday's breach of support at $74.76, low Nov 22 and the subsequent sharp sell-off has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the current bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs. $69.58, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Oct rally, has been cleared and this opens $66.21, the 76.4% retracement. Initial resistance is seen at $74.76.

GOLD TECHS: Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: $1909.7 - High Jun 3
• RES 3: $1903.8 - High Jun 8
• RES 2: $1877.2/85.4 High Nov 16 / Bull channel top
• RES 1: $1815.6/49.1 - High Nov 26 / High Nov 22
• PRICE: $1794.3 @ 08:27 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: $1778.7 - Low Nov 24
• SUP 2: $1759.0 - Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1757.9 - Bull Channel base drawn from the Aug 9 low
• SUP 4: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 and a key support

Gold is still consolidating and remains vulnerable. The yellow metal sold off sharply early last week extending the move lower from $1877.2, the Nov 16 high. Price has also traded below the 20- and the 50-day EMAs. The clear breach of these averages suggests scope for a deeper pullback and attention is on the base of a bull channel at $1757.9. The channel is drawn off the Aug 9 low. Initial resistance is at $1815.6, the Nov 26 high.

SILVER TECHS: Probes Key Support

• RES 4: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 3: $26.002 - High Aug 4 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.406 - High Nov 16
• RES 1: $24.102 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $23.333 @ 08:17 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: $22.920 - Low Nov 26
• SUP 2: $22.213 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: $21.423 - Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

Silver traded lower Friday and probed support at $23.020, the Nov 23 low. The metal has recently cleared the 50-day EMA. The break suggests scope for a deeper short-term pullback and a clear breach of $23.020 would strengthen bearish conditions. For bulls, a move above $25.406, Nov 16 high is required to reinstate a bullish theme and a resumption of the uptrend. Initial resistance is at $24.102, the 20-day EMA.