MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Stocks Resume S/T Uptrend

Price Signal Summary – Stocks Resume S/T Uptrend

• S&P E-Minis traded higher Wednesday and delivered a fresh trend high, confirming a resumption of the current uptrend. This reinforces short-term bullish conditions and continued gains would maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. EUROSTOXX 50 traded higher Wednesday. Trend conditions remain bullish. Price has recently cleared the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg, at 3722.40. The breach strengthens the case for bulls and opens 3811.00 next, the Jun 8 high, ahead of 3840.00, the Jun 6 high.
• EURUSD traded higher Wednesday, clearing resistance at 1.0294, the Aug 2 high. The 50-day EMA, at 1.0330, was pierced. Price also traded briefly above the bear channel top, currently at 1.0344. EURGBP is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains since bouncing off 0.8340, the Aug 2 low. The broader outlook remains bearish though and gains are considered corrective. AUDUSD rallied Wednesday and in the process cleared resistance at 0.7047, the Aug 1 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Jul 14 and sets the scene for a continuation higher.
• Gold maintains a firmer tone and traded higher yesterday. The yellow metal did breach trendline resistance at $1794.6. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 8 high and the break represents an important technical breach plus highlights a stronger reversal of the 5-month downtrend. WTI futures remain vulnerable. A doji candle pattern Tuesday highlights the possible end of the recent 3-day bounce between Aug 5 - 9. A resumption of weakness would expose $87.01, the Aug 5 low and the short-term bear trigger.
• Bund futures are unchanged. The S/T trend direction is up and the latest pullback is considered corrective. A fresh high last week reinforced the bull theme and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Gilt futures remain above 116.44, the Aug 5 low. The short-term outlook is bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up and gains since Jun 16 have established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Channel Resistance Holds Firm

• RES 4: 1.0536 High Jun 29
• RES 3: 1.0488 High Jun 30
• RES 2: 1.0449 High Jul 5
• RES 1: 1.0344/68 Channel top from Feb 10 high / High Aug 10
• PRICE: 1.0279 @ 05:16 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 1.0202/0123 Low Aug 10 / 3
• SUP 2: 1.0097 Low Jul 27 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.0064/0.9952 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD traded higher Wednesday, clearing resistance at 1.0294, the Aug 2 high. The 50-day EMA, at 1.0330, was pierced. Price also traded briefly above the bear channel top, currently at 1.0344. This remains a key resistance and a break would strengthen bullish conditions. Note that a deeper pullback would be a bearish development and suggests a reversal lower inside the channel. Watch support at 1.0123, the Aug 3 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 1.2518 High Jun 6
• RES 3: 1.2406 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 1: 1.2293 High Aug 01
• PRICE: 1.2187 @ 06:21 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 1.2004 Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: 1.1961 Low Jul 25
• SUP 3: 1.1890/1760 Low Jul 21 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing

GBPUSD traded higher Wednesday, taking out the first level of resistance at the 1.2192 50-day EMA. This reinforces a bullish theme and puts prices close to the August highs. Further strength through 1.2293, Aug 1 high, would suggest scope for an extension higher and open 1.2332, the Jun 27 high. Potential is also seen for a climb towards 1.2406, the Jun 16 high and the next key key resistance. Initial support to watch is 1.2004, Aug 5 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Outlook Is Bearish

• RES 4: 0.8627 High Jul 4
• RES 3: 0.8585 High Jul 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8525 High Jul 25
• RES 1: 0.8471/74 High Aug 10 / 0-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8433 @ 06:29 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 0.8233 2.0% 10-dma envelope and low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and a key support

EURGBP is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains since bouncing off 0.8340, the Aug 2 low. The broader outlook remains bearish though and gains are considered corrective. Price action since mid-June has established a sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in bear mode too. A resumption of weakness would open 0.8313, Apr 22 low. Initial firm resistance is 0.8474, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Reversal

• RES 4: 137.51 Former channel support drawn from the Mar 4 low
• RES 3: 136.58 High Jul 28
• RES 2: 135.96 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 2 downleg
• RES 1: 135.58 High Aug 8
• PRICE: 133.12 @ 06:37 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 132.03 Low Aug 10
• SUP 2: 130.41/130.00 Low Aug 2 / Round number support
• SUP 3: 129.51 Low Jun 2
• SUP 4: 128.64 Low Jun 1

USDJPY traded sharply lower Wednesday. This signals a possible reversal of the recent correction between Aug 2 - 8. A bearish theme remains in place following the Jul 28 bull channel breakout. The channel is drawn from the Mar 4 low and the break signalled a reversal. A continuation lower would expose 130.41, the Aug 2 low and the bear trigger. Firm resistance has been defined at 135.58, the Aug 8 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Remains Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 140.59 Trendline drawn from the Jun 28 high
• RES 3: 140.07 High Jul 25
• RES 2: 139.41 High Jul 28
• RES 1: 138.44 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 136.92 @ 06:47 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 135.81 Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: 134.84/133.40 Low Aug 3 / 2 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 132.66 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 131.99 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Jun 28 bull leg

EURJPY traded lower Wednesday and the cross has remained below the 50-day EMA. The recovery from 133.40, Aug 2 low, is likely a correction if moving average studies are correct in highlighting a downtrend. The 50-day EMA, at 138.44, is a firm resistance and a reversal lower would refocus attention on the 133.40 bear trigger. Clearance of the 50-day EMA would instead suggest scope for a stronger recovery.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Price Sequence

• RES 4: 0.7166 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 3: 0.7141 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 2: 0.7119 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.7109 High Aug 10
• PRICE: 0.7072 @ 06:57 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 0.6950/6870 20-day EMA / Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: 0.6786 Low Jul 18
• SUP 3: 0.6682 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD rallied Wednesday and in the process cleared resistance at 0.7047, the Aug 1 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Jul 14 and sets the scene for a continuation higher. The break has also established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on a climb toward 0.7141, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch is at 0.6870, Aug 5 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3122/35 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band / High Jul 15
• RES 2: 1.3038 High Jul 18
• RES 1: 1.2874/2985 20-day EMA / High Aug 5
• PRICE: 1.2767 @ 08:04 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 1.2751 Low Aug 10
• SUP 2: 1.2742 200-dma
• SUP 3: 1.2685 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 upleg
• SUP 4: 1.2596 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD traded sharply lower yesterday to confirm a resumption of its current bear leg - the pair cleared support at 1.2767, the Aug 1 low to deliver a fresh August low of 1.2751. The move lower paves the way for a bearish extension and attention is on 1.2742, the 200-dma and 1.2685, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a breach of last Friday’s 1.2985 high is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Trend Direction Remains Up

• RES 4: 161.38 2.00 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 159.79 High Apr 4 (cont)
• RES 1: 158.33/159.70 High Aug 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 156.44 @ 05:08 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 155.72/155.32 Low Aug 5 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 153.50 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 149.69 Low Jul 21 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 148.24 Low Jul 1

Bund futures are unchanged. The S/T trend direction is up and the latest pullback is considered corrective. A fresh high last week reinforced the bull theme and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition. The focus is on 159.79 next, Apr 4 high (cont). Key trend support has been defined at 149.69, Jul 21 low. A break is required to signal a potential top. Initial firm support is 155.16, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 130.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.950 2.00 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 129.001 1.764 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 128.060/128.760 High Aug 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 127.140 @ 05:13 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 126.755/450 20-day EMA / Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 125.967 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 124.030 Low Jul 21 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 4: 123.010 Low Jun 30

Bobl futures are consolidating. The contract remains in an uptrend and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s high print confirmed a resumption of the trend and this maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A resumption of gains would open 129.001 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is 124.030, the Jul 21 low. A break would signal a reversal. Initial firm support is 126.450, Jul 28 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 110.855 High Apr 4 (cont)
• RES 3: 110.500 High May 26 (cont)
• RES 2: 110.412 1.50 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 110.100/380 High Aug 3 / Aug 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 109.825 @ 05:22 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 109.670 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 109.614 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 109.350 Low Jul 22
• SUP 4: 108.950 Low Jul 21 and a key support

Schatz futures are currently in consolidation mode and remain below recent highs. The move lower since Aug 2 is likely a correction and trend conditions still appear bullish. A fresh high on Aug 2, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 110.412 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is unchanged at 108.950, the Jul 21 low. Initial firm support is seen at 109.670.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Watching Support

• RES 4: 121.88 High Apr 5 (cont)
• RES 3: 121.07 High May 12 (cont)
• RES 2: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 118.88/119.84 High Aug 4 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 117.62 @ Close Aug 10
• SUP 1: 116.79/46 Trendline drawn from the Jun 16 low / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 114.86 50.0% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg
• SUP 3: 114.08 Low Jul 8 and a key support
• SUP 4: 113.69 61.8% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg

Gilt futures remain above 116.44, the Aug 5 low. The short-term outlook is bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up and gains since Jun 16 have established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Key trend support is at 114.08, the Jul 8 low. The initial firm support zone to watch is 116.46 the 50-day EMA and 116.79, trendline support drawn from the Jun 16 low. A resumption of gains would open 119.84, the bull trigger.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Bull Flag

• RES 4: 131.61 High Apr 29 (cont)
• RES 3: 131.24 High May 12 (cont)
• RES 2: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 129.27 High Aug 2
• PRICE: 128.37 @ Close Aug 10
• SUP 1: 126.83/125.28 Low Aug 3 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 122.81/119.57 Low Jul 28 / Low Jul 21 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 4: 115.72 Low Jun 16

The BTP futures trend condition remains bullish. The recent pause in the uptrend appears to be a bull flag formation, reinforcing the current trend condition. The break on Jul 29 of key resistance at 126.41, Jul 1 high, highlights a broader bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows - the definition of an uptrend. Attention is on the 130.00 handle next. Initial firm support lies at 125.28, the 50-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 3902.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 3855.00 High Apr 21
• RES 2: 3840.00 High Jun 6 and key resistance
• RES 1: 3811.00 High Jun 8
• PRICE: 3765.00 @ 05:27 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 3658.00 Low Aug 2
• SUP 2: 3613.30/3553.00 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26
• SUP 3: 3467.00 Low Jul 18 / 19
• SUP 4: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 traded higher Wednesday. Trend conditions remain bullish. Price has recently cleared the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg, at 3722.40. The breach strengthens the case for bulls and opens 3811.00 next, the Jun 8 high, ahead of 3840.00, the Jun 6 high. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 3343.00, the Jul 5 low. Initial firm support to watch is 3613.30, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 4345.75 2.00 proj of the Jun 17 - 28 - Jul 14 price swing
• RES 3: 4306.50 High May 4
• RES 2: 4272.35 1.764 proj of the Jun 17 - 28 - Jul 14 price swing
• RES 1: 4226.95 1.618 proj of the Jun 17 - 28 - Jul 14 price swing
• PRICE: 4220.00 @ 06:55 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 4080.50 Low Aug 2
• SUP 2: 4008.43/3913.25 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26 and a key support
• SUP 3: 3820.25 Low Jul 18
• SUP 4: 3723.75 Low Jul 14

S&P E-Minis traded higher Wednesday and delivered a fresh trend high, confirming a resumption of the current uptrend. This reinforces short-term bullish conditions and continued gains would maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 4272.35 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial trend support is at 4080.50, the Aug 2 low. The 50-day EMA intersects at 4016.17 - a key support.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V2) Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $112.92 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $110.72 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $106.50 - High Jul 29 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $99.12/101.79 - 20- and 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $97.37 @ 07:05 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: $92.78 - Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: $91.22 - Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $90.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $88.31 - Low Mar 9 and a key support

Brent futures are trading above recent lows but remain vulnerable. The contract traded lower last week, extending the pullback from $106.50, the Jul 29 high. Tuesday’s price pattern is a doji candle and this signals the possible end of the recent 3-day corrective bounce between Aug 5 - 9 . A resumption of weakness would open $91.22, Jul 14 low. Key resistance is unchanged at $106.50, Jul 29 high. Initial resistance is at $99.12, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (U2) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $111.14 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $108.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $101.88 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 1: $94.40/98.11 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: $91.74 @ 07:14 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: $87.01 - Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: $85.37 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $83.51 - 1.50 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 4: $81.34 - 1.618 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing

WTI futures remain vulnerable. A doji candle pattern Tuesday highlights the possible end of the recent 3-day bounce between Aug 5 - 9. A resumption of weakness would expose $87.01, the Aug 5 low and the short-term bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open $85.37, the Mar 15 low. Key resistance has been defined at $101.88, Jul 29 high. Initial resistance is at $94.40, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Clears Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: $1875 7 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jul 21 bear leg
• RES 3: $1857.6 - High Jun 16
• RES 2: $1829.8 - 38.2% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jul 21 bear leg
• RES 1: $1807.9 - High Aug 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1787.1 @ 07:20 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: $1754.4 - Low Aug 3 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $1711.7/1681.0 - Low Jul 27 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1680.5 - 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021

Gold maintains a firmer tone and traded higher yesterday. The yellow metal did breach trendline resistance at $1794.6. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 8 high and the break represents an important technical breach plus highlights a stronger reversal of the 5-month downtrend. However, price has pulled back from yesterday’s session high and any stronger reversal would threaten the bullish theme. Watch support at $1754.4 the Aug 3 low.

SILVER TECHS: Maintains A Bullish Tone

• RES 4: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 3: $21.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 1: $20.844 - High Aug 10
• PRICE: $20.516 @ 08:08 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: $19.551/062 - Low Aug 5 / Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: $18.146/18.000 - Low Jul 14 / Round number support
• SUP 3: $17.312 - 3.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020

Silver remains bullish and delivered a fresh trend high print yesterday. Monday’s rally resulted in a break of resistance at $20.508, the Aug 2 high. This confirmed a resumption of the bull leg that started Jul 14 and the metal has established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. The focus is on $21.540, Jun 27 high. On the downside, initial key support has been defined at $19.551, the Aug 5 low.