MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/CAD Pullback Testing Key Support

Price Signal Summary – USD/CAD Pullback Testing Key Support

• S&P E-Minis traded higher yesterday and the contract remains firm today as it extends the bull cycle from Apr 19. Yesterday’s gains resulted in a break of key resistance at 5333.50, the Apr 1 high. Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to appreciate. The contract has breached key resistance at 5079.00, the Apr 2 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• GBPUSD traded sharply higher Wednesday, reinforcing the current bullish tone. Resistance at 1.2634, the May 3 high, has been cleared. The breach confirms a resumption of the current bull cycle and opens 1.2709 next, the Apr 9 high. EURJPY has pulled back from yesterday’s 169.40 high. Despite the move down, the M/T trend structure remains bullish - for now - with sights on 171.56, Apr 29 high and key resistance. A bullish trend condition in USDCAD remains intact, despite the latest pullback. Key support levels to watch are; 1.3637, 50-day EMA, and 1.3610, May 3 low. Both levels have been pierced. A clear break of this zone would threaten the bullish theme and instead signal scope for a deeper retracement.
• The medium-term trend structure in Gold remains bullish and this is reinforced by moving average studies that are in a bull-mode position. Near-term, a continued push higher would refocus attention on $2431.50, the Apr 12 high and bull trigger. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. Price has recently breached the 50-day EMA, strengthening a short-term bearish set-up that highlights potential for a deeper correction.
• Bund futures have reversed course. The contract traded sharply higher yesterday and is firmer again today. Price has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs and breached short-term resistance at 131.86, the May 7 high. Gilt futures traded higher Wednesday, confirming the end to the recent pause in the bull cycle that appeared to be a bull flag formation. The breach of resistance at 98.29, the May 10 high, confirms the flag and highlights a resumption of the recovery.

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Channel Breakout Confirmed

• RES 4: 1.0981 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0964 High Mar 13
• RES 2: 1.0933 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0895 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.0886 @ 05:27 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 1.0829 Former channel top drawn from the Dec 28 high
• SUP 2: 1.0774 50-day EMA and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 1.0724 Low May 3
• SUP 4: 1.0650 Low May 1

EURUSD traded sharply higher Wednesday, confirming once again an extension of the bull leg that started Apr 16. The move higher highlights a clear bear channel breakout - price is through the top of at 1.0829 and the channel is drawn from the Dec 28 high. The break signals scope for a climb towards 1.0933, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support lies at 1.0774, the 50-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Price Action

• RES 4: 1.2823 High Mar 14
• RES 3: 1.2803 High Mar 21
• RES 2: 1.2754 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2709 High Apr 09
• PRICE: 1.2690 @ 05:49 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 1.2568 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2510 Low May 14
• SUP 3: 1.2446 Low May 9 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 1.2423 Low Apr 24

GBPUSD traded sharply higher Wednesday, reinforcing the current bullish tone. Resistance at 1.2634, the May 3 high, has been cleared. The breach confirms a resumption of the current bull cycle and opens 1.2709 next, the Apr 9 high, ahead of 1.2754, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 1.2568, the 50-day EMA. A break below 1.2446, the May 9 low, is required to reinstate a bearish threat.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 0.8665 61.8% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
• RES 3: 0.8671 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8621 High May 9
• PRICE: 0.8579 @ 06:10 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 0.8572/31 50-day EMA / Low Apr 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8521/8504 Low Apr 17 / Low Mar 8
• SUP 3: 0.8498/93 Low Feb 14 / Low Aug 23 2023 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase

EURGBP traded lower yesterday and continues to trade below its recent high. Despite the pullback, a bullish short-term bullish condition remains in place and moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up highlighting a rising trend. A resumption of gains would open 0.8645, the Apr 23 high and a key short-term resistance. Clearance of this hurdle would be viewed as an important technical break. Initial support to watch is 0.8572, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 160.17 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 157.99 High May 1
• RES 2: 157.00 61.8% retracement of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off
• RES 1: 154.96/156.74 20-day EMA / High May 14
• PRICE: 153.93 @ 06:30 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 153.27 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 152.25 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low
• SUP 3: 151.86 Low May 3
• SUP 4: 150.81 Low Apr 5

USDJPY faded off the week’s highs yesterday and is trading lower today. The reversal signals the end of the corrective recovery between May 3 - 14, and signals a possible resumption of a stronger bearish cycle near-term. Attention is on 153.27, the 50-day EMA, and 152.25, trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low. Clearance of these two supports would highlight a stronger reversal. Initial firm resistance to watch is 156.74, the May 14 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: 171.56 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 170.40 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 169.78 76.4% retracement of the Apr 29 - May 3 retracement
• RES 1: 169.40 High May 14
• PRICE: 167.68 @ 06:48 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 166.80 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 165.64 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low
• SUP 3: 165.11 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 164.02 Low May 3

EURJPY has pulled back from yesterday’s 169.40 high. Despite the move down, the M/T trend structure remains bullish - for now - with sights on 171.56, Apr 29 high and key resistance. Initial resistance is yesterday’s 169.40 high and 169.78, a Fibonacci retracement. First support to watch lies at 166.80, 20-day EMA. Key trendline support drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low, lies at 165.64. A clear break of this line would highlight a stronger reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Clears Key Resistance

• RES 4: 0.6771 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 1: 0.6714 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6678 @ 07:32 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 0.6587 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6577 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6465/6407 Low May 1 / Low APr 22
• SUP 4: 0.6363 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger

A bullish condition in AUDUSD remains intact. Recent gains have resulted in the break of a number of short-term resistance points and yesterday’s rally cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.6668, the Mar 8 high. The break strengthens a bullish theme and paves the way for a climb towards 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.6555, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Testing Support

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3675/3785 20-day EMA / High Apr 30
• PRICE: 1.3622 @ 07:55 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 1.3590 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

A bullish trend condition in USDCAD remains intact, despite the latest pullback. Key support levels to watch are; 1.3637, 50-day EMA, and 1.3610, May 3 low. Both levels have been pierced. A clear break of this zone would threaten the bullish theme and instead signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high. MA studies remain in a bull-mode position - for now.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Bullish Reversal

• RES 4: 133.05 High Apr 12
• RES 3: 132.89 38.2% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 25 bear cycle
• RES 2: 132.55 High Apr 15
• RES 1: 132.24 High Apr 19
• PRICE: 132.06 @ 05:01 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 131.12 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 130.24 Low May 14 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 129.83 Low Apr 30
• SUP 4: 129.53 Low Apr 25 and a bear trigger

Bund futures have reversed course. The contract traded sharply higher yesterday and is firmer again today. Price has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs and breached short-term resistance at 131.86, the May 7 high. This highlights a reversal and signals scope for a climb towards 132.89, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial key support has been defined at 130.24, the May 14 low.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Trades Through Resistance

• RES 4: 118.100 High Apr 12
• RES 2: 117.880 High Apr 15
• RES 3: 117.620 High Apr 19
• RES 1: 117.440 Intraday high
• PRICE: 117.390 @ 05:20 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 117.003 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 116.510 Low May 14 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 116.230 Low Apr 30 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.135 1.50 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing

Bobl futures traded sharply higher yesterday and the move highlights a potential short-term reversal. The contract has traded through initial key resistance at 117.300, the May 7 high. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 117.418, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would strengthen the developing bullish theme and open 117.620, the Apr 19 high. Initial key support has been defined at 116.510, the May 14 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 105.790 High Mar 25 and key resistance
• RES 3: 105.680 High Apr 12
• RES 2: 105.506 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.395 High May 3
• PRICE: 105.375 @ 05:30 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 105.150/045 Low May 14 / Low Apr 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 105.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 104.917 1.764 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.800 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 25 price swing

The trend direction in Schatz futures remains down, however, yesterday’s rally has exposed key short-term resistance at 105.395, the May 3 high. A clear break of this hurdle would highlight a potential reversal and expose resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 105.506. Clearance of this average would strengthen a bullish condition. Key support to watch lies at 105.150, the May 14 low. A break would instead signal a resumption of the bear trend.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 99.37 High Apr 4
• RES 3: 99.19 76.4% of the Mar 12 - Apr 25 bear leg
• RES 2: 99.10 High Apr 10
• RES 1: 98.75 Intraday high
• PRICE: 98.66 @ 08:10 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 97.23 Low May 14 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 96.43/95.36 Low May 3 / Low Apr 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 95.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 94.86 2.236 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing

Gilt futures traded higher Wednesday, confirming the end to the recent pause in the bull cycle that appeared to be a bull flag formation. The breach of resistance at 98.29, the May 10 high, confirms the flag and highlights a resumption of the recovery that started Apr 25. This signal scope for a climb towards 99.19, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support has been defined at 97.23, the May 14 low.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Rally Exposes Resistance

• RES 4: 120.28 High Mar 14 and the bull rally
• RES 3: 119.55 High Mar 27
• RES 2: 119.10 High Apr 10 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 119.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 118.78 @ 08:04 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 116.94/115.76 Low May 14 / Low Apr 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8 ‘23 (cont)
• SUP 3: 114.74 1.236 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 22 - Mar 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.09 1.382 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 22 - Mar 14 price swing

BTP futures rallied yesterday and in the process traded above resistance at 118.61, the May 6 high. This exposes a more important resistance at 119.10, the Apr 10 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at 120.28, the Mar 14 high. On the downside, a reversal lower and a break of initial support at 116.94, the May 15 low, would instead be a bearish development.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Uptrend Extends

• RES 4: 5170.50 1.50 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5162.00 High Nov 2000
• RES 2: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 5110.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 5104.00 @ 06:04 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 4993.40/4924.00 20- and 50- day EMA values
• SUP 2: 4862.00 Low Apr 25
• SUP 3: 4762.00 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4711.00 Low Feb 19

Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to appreciate. The contract has breached key resistance at 5079.00, the Apr 2 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This opens 5127.70 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend support remains 4762.00, the Apr 19 low. The initial support zone to watch is 4993.40/4924.00, the area between the 20- and 50- day EMAs.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Fresh Cycle Highs

• RES 4: 5417.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5372.73 1.76 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5343.25 Intraday high
• PRICE: 5340.25 @ 06:49 BST May 16
• SUP 1: 5195.65 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5160.67 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 5036.25 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 4963.50 Low Apr 19 and bear trigger

S&P E-Minis traded higher yesterday and the contract remains firm today as it extends the bull cycle from Apr 19. Yesterday’s gains resulted in a break of key resistance at 5333.50, the Apr 1 high. This confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and signals scope for a climb towards 5372.73, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a clear uptrend. Initial support is at 5195.65, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N4) Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $94.00 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $92.09 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $91.18 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $84.59/88.64 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 26
• PRICE: $83.13 @ 06:58 BST May 16
• SUP 1: $81.05 - Low May 15
• SUP 2: $80.24 - 61.8% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $75.91 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $73.47 Low Dec 13 and a key support

Brent futures remain vulnerable and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has recently cleared the 50-day EMA and the clear breach of this average signals scope for a deeper correction towards $80.24, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $91.18, the Apr 12 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. Initial firm resistance is $88.64, Apr 26 high.

WTI TECHS: (M4) Short-Term Trend Structure Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $88.07 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $84.46/86.97 - High Apr 26 / 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $80.31 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $78.95 @ 07:14 BST May 16
• SUP 1: $76.70 - Low May 15
• SUP 2: $76.07 - Low Mar 11
• SUP 3: $73.30 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull leg
• SUP 4: $71.47 - Low Feb 5

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. Price has recently breached the 50-day EMA, strengthening a short-term bearish set-up that highlights potential for a deeper correction. Scope is seen for a move to $76.07, the Mar 11 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $86.97, the Apr 12 high. Initial firm resistance is at $84.46, the Apr 26 high.

GOLD TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Rising Trend

• RES 4: $2500.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2397.4/2431.5 - Intraday high / High Apr 12 and bull trigger
• PRICE: $2388.7 @ 07:20 BST May 16
• SUP 1: $2331.8/2277.4 - 20-day EMA / Low May 3
• SUP 2: $2273.7 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

The medium-term trend structure in Gold remains bullish and this is reinforced by moving average studies that are in a bull-mode position. Near-term, a continued push higher would refocus attention on $2431.50, the Apr 12 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, the 50-day EMA, at $2273.7, represents a key support. A clear break of it would be bearish.

SILVER TECHS: Pierces Key Resistance

• RES 4: $30.912 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $30.100 - Feb 2021 high and a key resistance
• RES 2: $30.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $29.850 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $29.450 @ 08:10 BST May 16
• SUP 1: $27.707 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $26.647/018 - 50-day EMA / Low May 2
• SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
• SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28

Silver maintains a bullish theme and the metal traded higher again yesterday. The climb has resulted in a test of key resistance and bull trigger at $29.797, the Apr 12 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open $30.100, the Feb 2021 high and a key resistance. Support at the 50-day EMA, at $26.647, remains intact. A clear breach of this average would instead highlight a stronger reversal set-up.