MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Clears Key Resistance

Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY Clears Key Resistance

• The trend in the S&P E-Minis remains bearish, however, the contract traded higher Wednesday. The 20-day EMA has been breached and the clear break suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Wednesday and as a result, breached the 20-day EMA. This sets the scene for a stronger correction and attention turns to the 50-day EMA at 3964.00. The average represents an important area of resistance and if cleared, would strengthen a bullish short-term theme.
• EURUSD edged higher into the Wednesday close and is holding onto this week’s gains. The pair however continues to trade below its key short-term resistance of 1.1121 - the Jan 28 low, a recent breakout level plus the Mar 10 high. GBPUSD traded higher yesterday. The trend outlook remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. A bearish theme follows recent weakness that resulted in a break of 1.3163, the Dec 12 low. USDJPY firmed further Wednesday. The pair has cleared the key resistance at 118.60/66, the Jan 3 ‘17 and Dec 15 ‘16 highs. This strengthens bullish conditions and reinforces the recent bullish break of resistance 116.34/35, the Feb 10 / Jan 4 highs, that confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend.
• Gold short-term conditions remain bearish following the recent pullback from last week’s Mar 8 high of $2070.4. The broader trend condition remains bullish though and the pullback is considered corrective. WTI futures remain in a short-term downtrend following the recent pullback from 130.50, the Mar 7 high. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this has exposed the 50-day EMA, currently at $93.52.
• Bund futures remain in a downtrend following recent weakness The contract has this week breached support at 161.50, Feb 10 low. Gilt futures started the week on a softer note and have maintained this bearish theme as the contract continues to trade lower. This marks an extension of the pullback from the Mar 1 high of 126.81.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Holding Onto This Week’s Gains

• RES 4: 1.1280 Low Feb 14
• RES 3: 1.1203/32 50-day EMA / 61.8% of Feb 10 - Mar 7 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1121 Low Jan 28, high Mar 10 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: 1.1075 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 1.1026 @ 05:53 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 1.0890/06 Low Mar 9 / Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
• SUP 3: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0654 2.50 proj of the Jan - Mar - May 2021 price swing

EURUSD edged higher into the Wednesday close and is holding onto this week’s gains. The pair however continues to trade below its key short-term resistance of 1.1121 - the Jan 28 low, a recent breakout level plus the Mar 10 high. Conditions remain bearish below this resistance and a break is required to signal scope for a stronger retracement. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 1.0806, Mar 7 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 1.3376 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.3358 Low Jan 27
• RES 2: 1.3250 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3195 High Mar 10
• PRICE: 1.3155 @ 06:19 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 1.3000 Low Mar 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2954 1.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933/07 Low Nov 5 2020 / 2.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

GBPUSD traded higher yesterday. The trend outlook remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. A bearish theme follows recent weakness that resulted in a break of 1.3163, the Dec 12 low. This confirmed a resumption of the broader downtrend. Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bear mode, reinforcing the current condition. The bear trigger is 1.3000, Mar 15 low. Next resistance is seen at 1.3195, the Mar 10 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Conditions Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.8553 High Feb 14
• RES 3: 0.8498/8520 High Dec 23 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8478 High Feb 7 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8456 Mar 15 High
• PRICE: 0.8386 @ 06:27 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 0.8363/17 20-day EMA / Low Mar 9
• SUP 2: 0.8278 Low Mar 7
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8131 Low Jun 27, 2016

EURGBP is consolidating bit trading closer to its recent highs. The cross has recently traded above the key resistance of 0.8406, the Feb 25 high. This has strengthened the short-term bullish condition and signals scope for an extension towards the next resistance at the early February highs of 0.8478. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is seen at 0.8317, the Mar 9 low. A break would highlight a potential reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Bull Trend Extends

• RES 4: 120.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 119.38 3.382 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
• RES 2: 119.18 3.236 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
• RES 1: 119.12 High Mar 16
• PRICE: 118.76 @ 06:35 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 117.28/116.35 Low Mar 14 / High Jan 4
• SUP 2: 116.29 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 115.34 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 115.48 Low Mar 4

USDJPY firmed further Wednesday. The pair has cleared the key resistance at 118.60/66, the Jan 3 ‘17 and Dec 15 ‘16 highs. This strengthens bullish conditions and reinforces the recent bullish break of resistance 116.34/35, the Feb 10 / Jan 4 highs, that confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Market focus turns to 119.18 next - the 3.236 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing. Initial support is seen at 117.28, Monday’s low.

EURJPY TECHS: Clears All Key Retracement Levels

• RES 4: 133.48 High Oct 20 2021
• RES 3: 133.15 High Feb 10 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 131.91 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 131.47 Intraday high
• PRICE: 131.04 @ 06:52 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 128.86 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 127.42 Low Mar 10
• SUP 3: 126.01 Low Mar 9
• SUP 4: 124.40 Low Mar 7 and a key support

EURJPY remains in a short-term uptrend and traded higher once again yesterday. The cross has cleared all key retracement levels of the recent Feb - Mar downleg and has this week breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals potential for an extension to; 131.91, the Feb 16 high and key resistance at 133.15, the Feb 10 high. Initial support is seen at 128.86, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Strong Reversal

• RES 4: 0.7532 High Nov 2, 2021
• RES 3: 0.7441 High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.7368 High Mar 10
• RES 1: 0.7321 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.7307 @ 07:02 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 0.7224 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.7165 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.7095 Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: 0.7080 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 7 upleg

AUDUSD has defined a key short-term support at 0.7165, the Mar 15 low. The strong reversal from this low threatens the recent bearish theme and also signals a possible resumption of the uptrend that started Jan 28. Moving averages remain in a bull mode and highlight an uptrend. An extension would open 0.7368, Mar 10 high and 0.7441, the Mar 7 high and bull trigger. Weakness below 0.7165 would reinstate a bearish theme.

USDCAD TECHS: Breaches Support

• RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 1.2871/2901 High Mar 15 / High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2747 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2676 @ 07:07 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 1.2669 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.2587 Low Mar 3
• SUP 3: 1.2552 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally
• SUP 4: 1.2499 Low Jan 21

USDCAD failed to hold onto Tuesday’s gains and the pair traded lower Wednesday. The Mar 11 low of 1.2694 has been breached and the clear break of this level signals potential for a deeper retracement and opens 1.2587, the Mar 3 low. This represents a key near-term support. From a trend perspective, moving averages still highlight a bull cycle. Clearance of 1.2901, Mar 8 high, would signal a resumption of the uptrend.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Approaching The 160.00 Handle

• RES 4: 165.29 High Mar 9
• RES 3: 164.43 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 163.68 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 162.73 High Mar 14
• PRICE: 161.33 @ 05:14 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 160.56 Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 160.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 159.81 123.6% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 rally
• SUP 4: 159.19 Low Nov 8 2018 (cont)

Bund futures remain in a downtrend following recent weakness The contract has this week breached support at 161.50, Feb 10 low. This has strengthened the bearish theme and importantly, has confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend and the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. 161.00 has also been cleared, opening the psychological 160.00 handle. Initial resistance is at 162.73.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Probes Key Support

• RES 4: 134.080 High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 133.390 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 132.590 High Mar 9
• RES 1: 131.675 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.540 @ 05:19 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 130.300 Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 130.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 129.554 123.6% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 upleg
• SUP 4: 128.820 Low Dec 4 2015 (cont)

Bobl futures remain in its current bear cycle following that started off 134.080, Mar 7 high. Support at 132.130, the Mar 1 low and 131.726, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 rally, have recently been cleared. This suggested potential for a continuation lower and yesterday, support at 130.410, the Feb 8 low was probed. A clear break would strengthen bearish conditions. Initial firm resistance is at 131.675, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Trading At Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 112.210 High Mar 7 and short-term key resistance
• RES 3: 112.015 High 8
• RES 2: 111.740 High Mar 10
• RES 1: 111.542 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 111.290 @ 05:13 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 111.205 Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 111.145 Low Feb 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 111.100 Round number support
• SUP 4: 111.065 Low Jun 5 2015 (cont)

Schatz futures traded to a fresh near-term cycle low yesterday of 111.205. It is still possible that the recent move lower is a correction although the break of support at 111.655, Mar 3 low, suggests potential for a deeper pullback. Price action also probed support at 111.240, the Feb 23 low and a key short-term level. A clear break would suggest potential for a deeper pullback. Initial firm resistance is seen at 111.760.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Key Support Probed

• RES 4: 126.81 High Mar 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 125.85 High Mar 4
• RES 2: 124.60 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 123.52 High Mar 9 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 121.13 @ Close Mar 16
• SUP 1: 120.97 Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 120.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 119.75 123.6% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb
• SUP 4: 118.92 138.2% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb

Gilt futures started the week on a softer note and have maintained this bearish theme as the contract continues to trade lower. This marks an extension of the pullback from the Mar 1 high of 126.81. The contract has probed key support at 121.10, Feb 6 low and a bear trigger. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend and strengthen bearish conditions. Resistance is seen at 123.52, the Mar 9 high.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Consolidating

• RES 4: 147.93 High Jan 31 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 146.74 High Mar 1
• RES 2: 145.06 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 141.62/43.85 20-day EMA / High Mar 10
• PRICE: 140.01@ Close Mar 16
• SUP 1: 138.99 Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 138.60 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 138.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 137.52 Low May 18 2020 (cont)

BTP futures are consolidating but remain vulnerable The recent break of support at 142.51, Mar 1 low, signalled an important intraday breach that resulted in a move below 140.52, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb 16 - Mar 1 rally. This, together with the recent follow through, suggests scope for a continuation lower and has exposed key support at 138.60, Feb 16 low and a bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is seen at 143.85, Mar 10 high.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (M2): Eyeing The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4730.50 High Jan 1
• RES 3: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 2: 4578.50 High Feb 9 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4397.83 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 4353.75 @ 07:02 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 4129.50/4094.25 Low Mar 15 / Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: 4029.25 Low May 13 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3983.25 1.00 proj of the Jan 4 - 24 - Feb 9 price swing

The trend in the S&P E-Minis remains bearish, however, the contract traded higher Wednesday. The 20-day EMA has been breached and the clear break suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. This has opened the 50-day EMA at 4397.83 - a key resistance area. On the downside, the bear trigger is unchanged at 4094.25, the Feb 24 low. Initial firm support is at 4129.50, Mar 15 low.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Approaching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4250.00 High Feb 2
• RES 3: 4119.50 High Feb 21
• RES 2: 3997.70 61.8% retracement of the Jan 5 - Mar 7 downleg
• RES 1: 3964.00 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3904.50 @ 05:48 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 3640.00 Low Mar 15 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 3546.00 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 3380.00 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3379.00 Low Dec 21 2020 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Wednesday and as a result, breached the 20-day EMA. This sets the scene for a stronger correction and attention turns to the 50-day EMA at 3964.00. The average represents an important area of resistance and if cleared, would strengthen a bullish short-term theme. On the downside, support to watch lies at 3640.00, the Mar 15 low. A break would highlight a possible reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K2) Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: $139.13 - High Mar 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: $131.64 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $118.36 - High Mar 10
• RES 1: $113.91 - High Mar 11
• PRICE: $100.35 @ 07:05 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: $96.93 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: $96.12 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $92.75 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $88.25 - Low Feb 18

Brent futures remain vulnerable having started the week on a softer note and the contract remains near its recent lows. Price has breached the 20-day EMA and this signals potential for an extension lower with the focus on the 50-day EMA at $96.12 - this EMA represents a key area of support. The current pullback is likely a correction. Initial resistance is at 113.91, the Mar 11 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

WTI TECHS: (J2) Remains In A Short-Term Downtrend

• RES 4: $130.50 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $126.84 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $114.88 - High Mar 10
• RES 1: $110-29 - High Mar 11
• PRICE: $97.29 @ 07:12 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: $93.52 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $90.06 - Low Feb 23 and a key support
• SUP 3: $87.46 - Low Feb 18
• SUP 4: $85.24 - Low Feb 3

WTI futures remain in a short-term downtrend following the recent pullback from 130.50, the Mar 7 high. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this has exposed the 50-day EMA, currently at $93.52. This EMA highlights a key area of support. The recent move lower is still considered corrective with trend signals continuing to highlight an uptrend. Initial resistance is at $110.29, the Mar 11 high. A break would ease the bearish threat.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: $2119.3 - 3.382 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: $2104.6 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: $2075.5 - High Aug 7 2020 and the all-time high
• RES 1: $2009.2/2070.4 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8
• PRICE: $1931.7 @ 07:19 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: $1895.3 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: $1889.2 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally

Gold short-term conditions remain bearish following the recent pullback from last week’s Mar 8 high of $2070.4. The broader trend condition remains bullish though and the pullback is considered corrective. The move lower has also allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this opens $1889.2 next, the 50-day EMA. On the upside, an initial firm short-term resistance is seen at $2009.2, the Mar 10 high.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $27.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $26.063/943 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $25.184 @ 07:56 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: $24.473 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: $24.229 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: $22.863 - Low Feb 11

Silver remains in an uptrend however the recent pullback - a correction - is still in play and this signals potential for a deeper short-term pullback. The metal has breached the 20-day EMA and attention turns to the 50-day EMA at 24.229. This EMA marks an important support. A reversal higher and move above $26.00 would refocus attention on the key resistance at 26.943, the Mar 8 high.