MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Remains Soft Despite Bounce Off Lows

Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY Remains Soft Despite Bounce Off Lows

• In S&P e-minis, a bullish theme remains intact and the contract traded higher Friday. Since the October 27 reversal, corrections have been shallow - this is a bullish signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Resistance at 4387.00, the Nov 24 high, was breached on Nov 30, confirming a resumption of the uptrend and maintaining the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• USDJPY maintains a softer tone despite the latest recovery - a correction. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a clear break of the trendline drawn from the Mar 24 low. This strengthens a bearish threat and signals scope for a continuation lower with sights on 140.71 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. EURJPY traded sharply lower last Thursday as the bear leg that started mid-November accelerated. The cross has cleared all key short-term retracement points of the Oct - Nov rally. This strengthens the current bearish threat. Key support at 154.46, the Oct 3 low, has been pierced. USDCAD is unchanged. The pair maintains a softer tone following and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. The recent breach of trendline support, drawn from the Jul 14 low, strengthens the current downtrend and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term.
• Gold traded in a volatile manner last week. The trend condition is bullish and last week’s early gains reinforce this theme. The precious metal touched a fresh all-time high of $2135.4 and this signals potential for a climb towards $2177.6 next, a Fibonacci projection. Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and last Wednesday’s sell-off reinforced this condition. The contract has cleared support at $72.37, the Nov 16 low. The break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend and note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position.
• Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone following this week’s continuation higher. On Nov 29, the contract traded above 132.09 the Nov 17 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. That break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Gilt futures rallied sharply higher last week. The latest gains resulted in a break of resistance at 98.05, the Nov 17 high, reinforcing bullish conditions and confirming a resumption of the current uptrend. The break higher paves the way for a climb towards 99.41.

EURUSD TECHS: Has Pierced Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1081 76.4% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 downleg
• RES 3: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0913/1017 High Dec 1 / High Nov 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.0826 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0766 @ 05:53 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 1.0724 Low Dec 8
• SUP 2: 1.0693 Low Nov 14
• SUP 3: 1.0665 61.8% retracement of the Oct 3 - Nov 29 rally
• SUP 4: 1.0582 76.4% retracement of the Oct 3 - Nov 29 rally

EURUSD maintains a softer tone and the pair is trading just above its recent lows. Price has pierced support at the 50-day EMA - at 1.0774. A clear break of this EMA would strengthen a bearish theme and open 1.0693, the Nov 14 low. On the upside, a strong reversal higher is required to refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1017. Initial resistance is at 1.0826, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2800 High May 5 / High Aug 22
• RES 1: 1.2651/1.2733 High Dec 5 / High Nov 29 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2543 @ 06:07 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 1.2536/03 20-day EMA / Low Dec 8
• SUP 2: 1.2442 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2374 Low Nov 17
• SUP 4: 1.2266 Low Nov 14

The trend direction in GBPUSD remains up and the recent pullback appears to be a correction. MA studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2536, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would signal scope for a deeper pullback towards 1.2446, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance has been defined at 1.2733, the Nov 29 high. A break would resume the uptrend and open 1.2800.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.8725 High Nov 22
• RES 3: 0.8690 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 0.8637 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8616 Low Oct 11
• PRICE: 0.8585 @ 06:35 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 0.8553 Low Dec 6
• SUP 2: 0.8524 Low Sep 5
• SUP 3: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8431 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURGBP maintains a softer tone and last week’s consolidation appears to be a pause in the downtrend and a bear flag formation - a bearish continuation signal. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too and this also highlights a downtrend. Sights are on 0.8558, the 76.4% retracement point. It has been pierced, a clear break would open 0.8524, the Sep 5 low. Initial resistance is seen 0.8616, Oct 11 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Recovery Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: 148.51 High Nov 30
• RES 3: 147.83 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 147.32 High Dec 7
• RES 1: 146.23 Low Dec 4
• PRICE: 145.52 @ 06:46 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 142.50/141.71 Low Dec 8 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 140.71 76.4% of the Jul 14 - Nov 13 bull run
• SUP 3: 139.11 1.764 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 142.41 Low Aug 8

USDJPY maintains a softer tone despite the latest recovery - a correction. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a clear break of the trendline drawn from the Mar 24 low. This strengthens a bearish threat and signals scope for a continuation lower with sights on 140.71 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. 141.71 is the bear trigger, the Dec 7 low. Initial firm resistance is at 146.23, the Dec 4 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 159.86 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 158.67 High Dec 7
• RES 2: 157.70 Low Oct 30
• RES 1: 156.98 Low Oct 16
• PRICE: 156.62 @ 07:04 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 153.23 Low Dec 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 152.24 3.764 proj of the Nov 16 - 21 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 150.92 Low Jun 14

EURJPY traded sharply lower last Thursday as the bear leg that started mid-November accelerated. The cross has cleared all key short-term retracement points of the Oct - Nov rally. This strengthens the current bearish threat. Key support at 154.46, the Oct 3 low, has been pierced. Clearance of this level would further reinforce current bearish conditions and open 151.42, the Jul 28 low. Initial firm resistance is at 158.67, the Dec 7 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Phase

• RES 4: 0.6821 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 0.6747 76.4% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6738 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.6623/91 High Dec 5 / 4 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6561 @ 07:38 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 0.6555/26 20-day EMA / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6498 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
• SUP 4: 0.6360 Low Nov 14

The uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact and the pullback from last week’s high appears to be a correction. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 0.6555, has been pierced. A clear break of the average would open 0.6498, the 50-day EMA. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend. The bull trigger has been defined at 0.6691, the Dec 4 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Trading Below Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3855/3899 High Nov 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.3777 High Nov 16
• RES 2: 1.3712 High Nov 24
• RES 1: 1.3644 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3595 @ 07:56 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 1.3480 Low Dec 4
• SUP 2: 11.3417 Low Sep 29
• SUP 3: 1.3401 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.3381 Low Sep 19 and a key support

USDCAD is unchanged. The pair maintains a softer tone following and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. The recent breach of trendline support, drawn from the Jul 14 low, strengthens the current downtrend and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 1.3417 next, the Sep 29 low. Initial firm resistance is at 1.3644, the 50-day EMA. A breach of this hurdle is required to ease the current bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 136.39 2.50 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 136.12 2.382 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 136.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 135.81 High Dec 7
• PRICE: 134.70 @ 05:28 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 133.91 Low Dec 4
• SUP 2: 132.81 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 132.09 High Nov 17 and a recent breakout point
• SUP 4: 130.47 Low Nov 24 and key support

Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone following this week’s continuation higher. On Nov 29, the contract traded above 132.09 the Nov 17 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. That break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and sights are on the 136.00 handle next. Initial firm support lies at 132.81, the 20-day EMA. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Trend Condition Is Overbought

• RES 4: 119.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 118.820 3.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: 118.584 2.764 proj of the Nov 14 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 118.480 High Dec 8
• PRICE: 117.870 @ 05:33 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 117.690 Low Dec 5
• SUP 2: 117.097 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 116.650 High Nov 17 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 116.390 Low Nov 28

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and recent gains have reinforced this theme. On Nov 28, the contract cleared 116.65, the Nov 17 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Sep 28. The break paves the way for a move towards 118.584 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 117.097, the 20-day EMA. The short-term trend condition is overbought. A corrective pullback would unwind this condition.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 106.621 1.382 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 3: 106.527 1.236 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 2: 106.375 1.00 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 1: 106.290 High Dec 6
• PRICE: 106.015 @ 05:45 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 106.005 Low Dec 4 / 8
• SUP 2: 105.801 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 105.780 Low Dec 1
• SUP 4: 105.640 Low Nov 29

Trend conditions in Schatz futures remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. A move lower would allow an overbought condition to unwind. Resistance at 105.660, the Aug 17 high, was breached on Nov 17 , strengthening current bullish conditions. This signals scope for a climb towards 106.375, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 105.780, the Nov 30 low.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Bull Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: 99.80 1.382 proj of the Nov 24 - 29 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 99.41 1.236 proj of the Nov 24 - 29 - 30 price swing
• RES 2: 99.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 98.97 High Dec 6
• PRICE: 98.18 @ Close Dec 8
• SUP 1: 97.43/96.10 Low Dec 8 / Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 95.25 Low Nov 24 and key support
• SUP 3: 95.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 94.74 2.618 proj of the Nov 17 - 20 - 22 price swing

Gilt futures rallied sharply higher last week. The latest gains resulted in a break of resistance at 98.05, the Nov 17 high, reinforcing bullish conditions and confirming a resumption of the current uptrend. The break higher paves the way for a climb towards 99.41, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 96.10, the Nov 30 low. Key short-term trend support has been defined at 95.25, the Nov 24 low.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Bull Rally Remains Intact

• RES 4: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 117.81 1.618 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 117.44 1.50 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 117.22 High Dec 7
• PRICE: 116.03 @ Close Dec 8
• SUP 1: 115.18/114.13 Low Dec 4 / Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 114.38 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 112.70 Low Nov 24 and a key support
• SUP 4: 111.53 Low Nov 14

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play and last week’s gains reinforced the bullish condition. The recent break of resistance at 114.11, Nov 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 19. Potential is for a climb towards 117.44 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term trend support has been defined at 112.70, the Nov 24 low. Initial support is at 115.18, the Dec 4 low. A move lower would be considered corrective.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Northbound

• RES 4: 4636.70 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2009 downleg
• RES 3: 4608.00 High Jun 2007 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4561.00 2.00 proj of the Oct 27 - Nov 3 - 8 price swing
• RES 1: 4543.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4530.00 @ 06:00 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 4463.00/4382.10 Low Dec 6 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4299.80 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4238.00 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 4185.00 Low Nov 9 and 10

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Resistance at 4387.00, the Nov 24 high, was breached on Nov 30, confirming a resumption of the uptrend and maintaining the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies are in a bull-mode position too, signalling a rising cycle. The focus is on 4561.00, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is at 4382.20, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Heading North

• RES 4: 4738.50 High Jul 27 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4700.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4690.75 High Aug 2
• RES 1: 4666.50 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4657.25 @ 07:16 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 4583.14 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4517.21 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4420.25.25 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 4354.25 Low Nov 10

In S&P e-minis, a bullish theme remains intact and the contract traded higher Friday. Since the October 27 reversal, corrections have been shallow - this is a bullish signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards 4690.75, the Aug 2 high. Initial support lies at 4583.14, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G4) Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $88.55 - High Oct 27
• RES 3: $87.12 - High Nov 3
• RES 2: $84.61 - High Nov 30 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $79.36/81.95 - 20- and 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $76.47 @ 06:59 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: $73.50 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: $71.45 - Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: $69.86 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 4: $66.90 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing

A sharp sell-off in Brent futures last week reinforced a bearish theme. The contract cleared support at $76.71, the Nov 16 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower high. Price has traded through the $75.00 handle and sights are set on $73.50, the Jul 6 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at $79.36, the 20-day EMA. Gains are considered corrective.

WTI TECHS: (F4) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $85.00 - High Oct 27
• RES 3: $83.20 - High Nov 3
• RES 2: $79.65 - High Nov 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $72.37/74.79 - Low Nov 16 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $71.77 @ 07:02 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: $68.80 - Low Dec 7
• SUP 2: $67.28 - Jun 23
• SUP 3: $65.00 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 4: $63.32 - 2.236 proj of the Nov 14 - 16 - 30 price swing

Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and last Wednesday’s sell-off reinforced this condition. The contract has cleared support at $72.37, the Nov 16 low. The break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend and note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend. Sights are on $67.28 next, the Jun 23 low. Resistance is seen at $74.79, the 20-day EMA. The latest recovery is considered corrective.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: $2206.6 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 1: $2041.3 - High Dec 5
• PRICE: $1998.8 @ 07:18 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: $1994.7 - Low Dec 8
• SUP 2: $1978.2 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13 and key support
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold traded in a volatile manner last week. The trend condition is bullish and last week’s early gains reinforce this theme. The precious metal touched a fresh all-time high of $2135.4 and this signals potential for a climb towards $2177.6 next, a Fibonacci projection. Price has since retraced and is trading at its recent lows. A short-term pullback is considered corrective. The next support to watch is $1978.2, the 50-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $26.397 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $23.006 @ 08:07 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: $22.749 - Trendline support drawn from the Oct 5 low
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver failed to hold on to last week’s gains and has reversed sharply lower. For now, the move down is considered corrective and the pullback is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. The 50-day EMA has been breached and this signals scope for a deeper pullback, potentially towards $21.883, the Nov 13 low and a key support. On the upside, $25.761 is the bull trigger, the Dec 4 high.