MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD On a Tear

Price Signal Summary - USD On a Tear

• S&P E-Minis remain bearish despite holding above Tuesday’s low. This week’s lows have reinforced current bearish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the current bear cycle. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a bear mode. This follows a reversal from last week’s highs. Furthermore, price continues to trade below the 20- and 50-day EMAs and Monday’s move lower resulted in a break of support at 3684.00, the Apr 12 low and a bear trigger.
• EURUSD remains under pressure and is weaker again today. The pair has cleared 1.0600. The move lower once again confirms an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, that defines a downtrend. Bearish pressure in GBPUSD continues to dominate. Recent weakness has resulted in an acceleration of the downtrend. The pair has cleared 1.2974, Apr 13 low and 1.2676, last printed in September 2020. USDJPY has recovered from Wednesday’s 126.95 low and in the process has cleared the recent trend high of 129.40 (Apr 20) and a chart point at 129.44, the 0.764 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing.
• Gold is trading lower and remains vulnerable. The yellow metal has recently cleared support at the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, the pullback from last week’s high of $1998.4 (Apr 18), continues to highlight a bearish threat. WTI futures traded lower Monday. A bearish threat remains in place despite the recovery from Monday’s low. A recent failure to challenge resistance at $109.20, Apr 18 high, highlights a bearish threat.
• Bund futures are holding on to this week’s gains. The recent bounce is considered corrective though. A bearish theme dominates and fresh cycle lows recently, reinforce this theme. The broader trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. However recent gains suggest potential for a stronger short-term recovery. Tuesday’s climb resulted in a print and close, above the 20-day EMA.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: 1.1076 High Apr 1
• RES 3: 1.0967 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0820/0936 20-day EMA / High Apr 21
• RES 1: 1.0655/0758 High Apr 27 / Low Apr 14 - recent breakout level
• PRICE: 1.0505 @ 06:14 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 1.0494 Low Feb 22 2017
• SUP 2: 1.0454 Low Jan 1 2017
• SUP 3: 1.0390 Low Jan 4 2017
• SUP 4: 1.0333 1.236 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing

EURUSD remains under pressure and is weaker again today. The pair has cleared 1.0600. The move lower once again confirms an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, that defines a downtrend. Further weakness is likely and the focus is on 1.0494, the Feb 22 2017 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.0936, the Apr 21 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.0758, the Apr 14 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 1.311250-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.3090/3147 High Apr 21 / High Apr 14
• RES 2: 1.2974 Low Apr 13 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 1.2772/2877 High Apr 26 / High Apr 25
• PRICE: 1.2506 @ 06:21 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 1.2503 Low Apr 27
• SUP 2: 1.2495 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2020 - Jan 21 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.2423 2.236 proj of the Mar 23 - Apr 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2375 2.382 proj of the Mar 23 - Apr 13 - 14 price swing

Bearish pressure in GBPUSD continues to dominate. Recent weakness has resulted in an acceleration of the downtrend. The pair has cleared 1.2974, Apr 13 low and 1.2676, last printed in September 2020. The trend remains oversold: the 14d RSI is now below 21 - the lowest point since March 2020 and the initial wave of lockdowns that followed COVID. A reversal pattern is still required to signal a base. The focus is 1.2495, a Fibonacci retracement.

EURGBP TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.8600 High Dec 8 2021
• RES 3: 0.8553 High Dec 14 2020
• RES 2: 0.8512/13 High Mar 31 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.8468 High Apr 27
• PRICE: 0.8398 @ 06:28 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 0.8389/8365 Low Apr 27 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger

EURGBP maintains a firmer tone, but faded off Wednesday's session highs. Recent strong gains resulted in a break of resistance at 0.8405, the Apr 11 high and a recent key short-term resistance. The break of this level still highlights a bullish development and has also resulted in a break above 0.8435, the Apr 4 high. An extension would open 0.8512. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8365, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Cracks 130.00

• RES 4: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 130.77 High Apr 18 2002
• RES 2: 130.43 High Apr 24 2002
• RES 1: 130.27 Intraday high
• PRICE: 130.09 @06:59 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 128.34/126.95 Intraday low / Low Apr 27 and a key support
• SUP 2: 125.89 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 125.09 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 124.01 Low Apr 11

USDJPY has recovered from Wednesday’s 126.95 low and in the process has cleared the recent trend high of 129.40 (Apr 20) and a chart point at 129.44, the 0.764 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing. The break confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and highlights a bull flag breakout. The psychological 130.00 has been breached, a clear break would strengthen bullish conditions. 126.95 represents a key short-term support.

EURJPY TECHS: Key Support Zone Remains Intact

• RES 4: 141.51 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 140.93 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 8 price swing
• RES 1: 137.54/140.00 High Apr 26 / High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 136.61 @ 06:39 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 134.79/64 Low Apr 27 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: 134.30 Low Apr 5 and a key support
• SUP 3: 134.02 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 132.95 Low Mar 24

This week’s pullback in EURJPY is considered corrective. The cross traded below the 20-day EMA, however, it remains above the more important support area around the 50-day EMA. This average intersects at 134.02 and is just below an important support at 134.30, Apr 5 low. While this support zone holds, the broader uptrend remains intact. Initial resistance is at 137.54, Tuesday’s high. The bull trigger is at 140.00, Apr 21 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 0.7493 Apr 12 high and key intraday resistance
• RES 3: 0.7458 High Apr 20/21
• RES 2: 0.7349 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7261 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 0.7086 @ 06:47 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 0.7052 Low Feb 4
• SUP 2: 0.6985 Low Jan 31
• SUP 3: 0.6968 Low Jan 28 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6921 Low Jul 14 2020

AUDUSD is trading lower again today. The pair recently cleared support at 0.7165, the Mar 15 low and a key short-term bear trigger. The break of this level reinforced current bearish conditions and today’s move lower has resulted in a break of 0.7095, the Feb 24 low. This opens 0.7052 next, the Feb 4 low. Initial resistance is seen at Monday’s intraday high of 0.7261. Firmer resistance however is set at 0.7340, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Holding On To This Week’s Gains

• RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 2021
• RES 3: 1.2901/15 High Mar 8 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2871 High Mar 15
• RES 1: 1.2858 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2834 @ 06:54 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 1.2641 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2568 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 1.2459 Low Apr 21
• SUP 4: 1.2403 Low Apr 5 and a key support

USDCAD remains bullish and is holding on to this week’s gains. The recent break of 1.2676, the Apr 13 high, and the subsequent follow through strengthened a bullish condition. The focus is on 1.2871 next, the Mar 15 high and the next key resistance at 1.2901, the Mar 8 high. On the downside, initial firm support is at 1.2641, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this area is required to reinstate a bearish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 159.26 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 157.87 High Apr 7
• RES 2: 156.21/37 20-day EMA / High Apr 14
• RES 1: 155.83 High Apr 27
• PRICE: 155.40 @ 04:55 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 153.05/153.00 Low Apr 22 / Round number support
• SUP 2: 152.65 Low Sep 1 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 151.99 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 150.15 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing

Bunds futures are holding on to this week’s gains. The recent bounce is considered corrective though. A bearish theme dominates and fresh cycle lows recently, reinforce this theme. The move lower has also confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too. The focus is on 153.00 next ahead of 152.65, the Sep 1 2015 low (cont). Firm resistance is at 156.37.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 129.350/545 High Apr 4 and reversal point / 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 128.830 High Apr 7
• RES 2: 128.310 High Apr 8 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 128.190 High Apr 27
• PRICE: 128.000 @ 05:03 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 126.660 Low Apr 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.480 Low Jun 5 2014 (cont)
• SUP 3: 126.196 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

The climb this week in Bobl futures is considered corrective. Fresh cycle lows last week reinforce the primary downtrend. The move lower also maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving averages continue to point south. A resumption of weakness would open 126.480 next, the Jun 5 2014 low (cont). Key short-term trend resistance has been defined at 128.310, the Apr 14 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 111.170 High Mar 23
• RES 3: 110.855 High Apr 4 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 110.580/660 20-day EMA / High Apr 14
• RES 1: 110.505 High Apr 27
• PRICE: 110.430 @ 05:12 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 110.060 Low Apr 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 110.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 109.983 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 109.777 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend and this week’s recovery is likely a correction. The contract traded to fresh cycle lows recently, confirming a resumption of the primary downtrend and an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too. The focus is on 109.983 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is at 110.660, the Apr 14 high.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Challenging Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 122.35 High Apr 4
• RES 3: 121.05 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 120.47 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 119.79 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 119.42 @ Close Apr 27
• SUP 1: 118.27/117.22 Low Apr 25 / Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 117.04 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 116.35 Low Dec 30 2015
• SUP 4: 115.40 1.00 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing

The broader trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. However recent gains suggest potential for a stronger short-term recovery. Tuesday’s climb resulted in a print and close, above the 20-day EMA. Furthermore, price has also traded above a trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 1 high. An extension would open the 120.00 handle and 121.05, the 50-day EMA. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 117.22.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Trend Conditions Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 137.74 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 136.12 High Apr 7
• RES 2: 134.48/135.23 20-day EMA / High Apr 14
• RES 1: 133.61 Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 1 high
• PRICE: 132.54 @ Close Apr 27
• SUP 1: 131.30 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 131.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 130.24 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.00 Psychological round number

The trend condition in BTP futures remains bearish. Fresh cycle lows last week confirmed a continuation of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, that defines a downtrend. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too. The focus is on the 130.00 handle next and key trend resistance is unchanged at 138.68, the Mar 31 high. The 20-day EMA, at 134.48, marks the initial firm resistance.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 3: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 3756.00/3883.00 20-day EMA / High Apr 21
• PRICE: 3679.00 @ 05:53 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 3608.00 Low Apr 27
• SUP 2: 3551 60 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 3: 3523.00 Low Mar 11
• SUP 4: 3458.90 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a bear mode. This follows a reversal from last week’s highs. Furthermore, price continues to trade below the 20- and 50-day EMAs and Monday’s move lower resulted in a break of support at 3684.00, the Apr 12 low and a bear trigger. The focus is on 3551.60, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a break above 3883.00, Apr 21 high, would alter the picture.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Bear Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4631.00 High Mar 29 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4588.75 High Apr 5
• RES 2: 4509.00 High Apr 21 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4303.50/4355.50 High Apr 26 / Low Apr 18
• PRICE: 4218.00 @ 06:53 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 4136.75 Low Apr 26
• SUP 2: 4129.50 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 4094.25 Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4063.24 1.618 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing

S&P E-Minis remain bearish despite holding above Tuesday’s low. This week’s lows have reinforced current bearish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the current bear cycle. Potential is seen for a continuation of this theme. This has opened 4129.50, the Mar 15 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 4509.00, Apr 21 high. Initial resistance though is seen at Tuesday’s high of 4303.50.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M2) Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $125.40 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 3: $119.74 - High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $114.84 - High Apr 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: $109.80 - High Apr 21
• PRICE: $103.56 @ 07:02 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: $99.48 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: $97.57 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 3: $94.61 - Low Mar 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: $90.58 - Low Feb 25

Brent futures remain vulnerable despite the recovery from Monday’s low of $99.48. The recent failure to challenge resistance at $114.84, Apr 18 high and a print below the 50-day EMA this week, which intersects at $102.90 today, signals potential for an extension lower. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would open $94.61, the Mar 16 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at $109.80.

WTI TECHS: (M2) Still Vulnerable

• RES 4: $118.13 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $113.51/113.90 - High Mar 24 / 76.4% of Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $110.22 - High Mar 28
• RES 1: $105.42/109.20 - High Apr 21 / High Apr 18
• PRICE: $101.13 @ 07:44 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: $95.28 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: $92.60 - Low Apr 11 and a key support
• SUP 3: $90.37 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $86.67 - Low Feb 25

WTI futures traded lower Monday. A bearish threat remains in place despite the recovery from Monday’s low. A recent failure to challenge resistance at $109.20, Apr 18 high, highlights a bearish threat. A clear break of the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $98.13 today, would strengthen bearish conditions and suggest scope for a deeper sell-off towards $90.37, the Mar 15 low and an important bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is seen at $105.42.

GOLD TECHS: Clears Key Support

• RES 4: $2007.9 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 3: $2001.6 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 2: $1998.4 - High Apr 18 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $1941.3 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1875.1 @ 07:22 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: $1872.2 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11
• SUP 4: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28

Gold is trading lower and remains vulnerable. The yellow metal has recently cleared support at the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, the pullback from last week’s high of $1998.4 (Apr 18), continues to highlight a bearish threat. This has been reinforced by the break yesterday of support at $1890.2, the Mar 29 low. Thi opens $1848.8, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, $1936.1, the 20-day EMA is seen as a firm short-term resistance.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Theme Intact

• RES 4: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 3: $26.943 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $24.608 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $23.196 @ 08:01 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: $22.999 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $22.863 - Low Feb 11
• SUP 3: $22.008 - Low Feb 3 and a key support
• SUP 4: $21.949 - Low Jan 7 2022

Silver remains soft following the reversal last week from the Apr 18 high of $26.222. The metal traded lower Monday, starting the week on a bearish note, and bears have not looked back. Support at $23.974, Mar 29 low, has been cleared and $23.173, 76.4% of the Feb 3 - Mar 8 rally, has been probed. A clear break of the latter would open $22.008, the Feb 3 low and a key support. The 50-day EMA, at $24.608, marks resistance.tas