MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD Trend Direction Remains Up

Price Signal Summary - USD Trend Direction Remains Up

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis dips are considered corrective. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for a continuation near-term. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have pulled back from recent highs. A bullish short-term theme remains intact though following the recent print above a key near-term resistance at 4101.50, Jul 1 high. The break of this level puts on hold a recent bearish outlook and instead signals scope for a stronger recovery.
• In FX, the USD outlook is unchanged and remains bullish. EURUSD traded higher into the close yesterday. The pair however remains in a tight range. The trend direction is down, with resistance at 1.1851 still intact. GBPUSD is testing the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 1.3884 today and represents a key short-term resistance area and is key for the near-term outlook. USDJPY traded lower Tuesday. A bearish theme dominates and recent gains appear corrective. A bearish focus follows the Jul 19 break of support at 109.53, Jul 8 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains inside its recent range and below $1834.1, Jul 15 high. The outlook is bullish though and the recent pullback is still considered corrective. Price however needs to clear $1834.1, Jul 15 high to confirm a resumption of the bull cycle. Brent futures remain firm. Price has cleared $73.87, the 61.8% retracement of the Jul 6 - 20 downleg. The breach of this level strengthens the short-term bullish case and puts on hold the recent bearish theme.
• Within FI, Bund futures maintain a firmer tone and are trading just ahead of this week's trend high print of 176.42. The move to new highs this week reinforces current bullish conditions and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Gilt futures remain below recent highs. A bullish trend condition dominates though following recent gains and the break of 129.92, Jul 8 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Remains In A Tight Range

• RES 4: 1.2006 High Jun 29 / Jun 17
• RES 3: 1.1975 High Jun 25
• RES 2: 1.1920/30 50-day EMA / High Jun 29
• RES 1: 1.1851/1881 High Jul 15 / High Jul 9
• PRICE: 1.1818 @ 06:07 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 1.1752 Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 1.1738 Low Apr 5
• SUP 3: 1.1704 Low Mar 31 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD traded higher into the close yesterday. The pair however remains in a tight range. The trend direction is down, with resistance at 1.1851 still intact. A trend sequence of lower lows and lower highs dominates highlighting a clear downtrend. Note that a death cross (50- breaking below the 200-dma) has recently occurred, reinforcing a bearish theme. The focus is on 1.1704, Mar 31 low. Initial resistance is at 1.1851, Jul 15 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Challenging The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.4074 Low Jun 10
• RES 3: 1.4001 High Jun 23
• RES 2: 1.3910 High Jul 12 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3884/94 50-day EMA / High Jul 27
• PRICE: 1.3867 @ 06:17 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 1.3720/3572 Low Jul 23 / Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3520/3493 Low Jan 18 / 2.0%10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.3452 Low Jan 11
• SUP 4: 1.3430 Low Dec 28, 2020

GBPUSD is testing the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 1.3884 today and represents a key short-term resistance area and is key for the near-term outlook. A bearish trend structure remains intact. A clear break though of the 50-day EMA and a close above would threaten a bearish view and expose a key short-term resistance at 1.3910, Jul 12 high. A turn lower would signal the end of the recent bounce and open 1.3572, key support and Jul 20 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Key Support Appears Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.8672 High May 25
• RES 2: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and 76.4% of the Apr - Jul bearish phase
• RES 1: 0.8585 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8521 @ 06:27 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 0.8511 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.8504 Low Jul 14 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8484/72 1% 10-dma envelope / Low Apr 5
• SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020

EURGBP remains vulnerable and continues to extend last week's sell-off and reversal from the Jul 20 high. The sharp move lower places on hold, a recent bullish focus. Instead, attention is on support at 0.8504, the Jul 14 low and a near-term bear trigger. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish case and open 0.8472, the Apr 5 low. On the upside, key resistance is unchanged at 0.8670, the Jul 20 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 111.71 High Mar 24, 2020
• RES 3: 111.66 High Jul 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 110.70/82 High Jul 14/ High Jul 7
• RES 1: 110.59 High Jul 23
• PRICE: 109.79 @ 06:32 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 109.59/07 Low Jul 27 / Low Jul 19
• SUP 2: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 3: 108.47/34 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally / Low May 7
• SUP 4: 108.08 Low Apr 27

USDJPY traded lower Tuesday. A bearish theme dominates and recent gains appear corrective. A bearish focus follows the Jul 19 break of support at 109.53, Jul 8 low. The move lower marks a resumption of the reversal from early July and paves the way for an extension lower. Note that support at 109.19 has also been breached, Jun 7 low. Attention is on 108.47, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm resistance is seen at 110.70, Jul 14 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Trend Conditions

• RES 4: 132.43 High Jul 1
• RES 3: 131.86 Jul 6 high
• RES 2: 131.08/09 50-day EMA / High Jul 13
• RES 1: 130.43 High Jul 14
• PRICE: 129.75 @ 06:39 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 128.60/57 Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger / 200-dma
• SUP 2: 128.29 Low Mar 24 and key support
• SUP 3: 127.88 38.2% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jun rally
• SUP 4: 127.31 Low Feb 17

EURJPY remains bearish and recent gains are still considered corrective. Attention is on the 200-dma at 128.57. A clear break of the average would reinforce the current bearish theme and signal scope for an extension of the current downtrend. Note, momentum and moving average studies remain bearish. Potential is for a move to 127.88, 38.2% of the Oct '20 - Jun rally. 130.43, marks resistance.

AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 0.7534 High Jul 7
• RES 3: 0.7503 High Jul 13
• RES 2: 0.7434 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7429 High Jul 19
• PRICE: 0.7356 @ 06:45 BST Jul 28
• SUP 2: 0.7290 Low Jul 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.7284 Low Nov 24, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.7235 1.382 proj of Feb 25 - Apr 1 - May 10 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.7222 Low Nov 13, 2020

The AUDUSD outlook is unchanged and remains bearish. This follows the recent breach of a channel drawn from the Feb 25 high and despite the fact that price is back inside the channel area, the move lower marks an important technical break, signalling potential for a move towards 0.7235 next, a 1.236 projection of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 - May 10 price swing. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is at 0.7429, Jul 19 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Reading Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.2916 1.382 proj of Jun 1 - 21- 23 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2881 High Jan 28
• RES 2: 1.2807/46 High Jul 19 / 1.236 proj of Jun 1 - 21- 23 swing
• RES 1: 1.2730 High Jul 20
• PRICE: 1.2589 @ 06:50 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 1.2526 Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 1.2502/2428 Low Jul 15 / Low Jul 14
• SUP 3: 1.2303/2253 Low Jul 6 / Low Jun 23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2157 Low Jun 16

Despite the strong move lower last week, the USDCAD outlook remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. On Jul 16, resistance at 1.2590, Jul 8 high was cleared. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend from Jun 1. Moving average conditions are in a bull mode too and this reinforces the current trend direction. Attention is on the 1.2846 Fibonacci projection and 1.2881, Jan 28 high. Support to watch is at 1.2502.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Holding Onto Gains

• RES 4: 177.19 1.618 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 3: 176.79 1.50 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 2: 176.64 High Feb 11 (cont)
• RES 1: 176.42 High Jul 26
• PRICE: 176.33 @ 05:12 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 175.24 Low Jul 22
• SUP 2: 174.77/45 High Jul 8 / Low Jul 15
• SUP 3: 173.70 Low Jul 13 and 14
• SUP 4: 173.57 50-day EMA

Bund futures maintain a firmer tone and are trading just ahead of this week's trend high print of 176.42. The move to new highs this week reinforces current bullish conditions and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. An extension would signal scope for a climb towards 176.64 next, the Feb 11 high (cont). On the downside, initial support is seen at 175.24, Jul 22 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Heading North

• RES 4: 135.350 High Apr 8 (cont)
• RES 3: 135.313 2.236 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 135.160 2.00 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 135.270 High Jul 26 and 27
• PRICE: 135.250 @ 05:20 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 134.900 Low Jul 22
• SUP 2: 134.726/710 20-day EMA / High Jul 8
• SUP 3: 134.498 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 134.410 Low Jul 13 and a key support

Bobl futures are holding onto recent gains as a bullish theme continues to dominate. This follows the break on Jul 8 of a key short-term resistance at 134.510, Jun 11 high and a Fibonacci projection. The move higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend from May 20 and subsequent gains reinforce the current bullish trend structure. The rising channel top drawn from the May 20 low has also been breached. Initial support lies at 134.900, Jul 22 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Bullish Theme

• RES 4: 112.385 2.236 proj of the Jun 22 - Jul 8 - Jul 13 price swing
• RES 3: 112.365 High Jan 27 (cont)
• RES 2: 112.360 2.00 proj of the Jun 22 - Jul 8 - Jul 13 price swing
• RES 1: 112.335 High Jul 27 and 1.764 of Jun 22 - Jul 8 - Jul 13 swing
• PRICE: 112.330 @ 05:09 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 112.245 Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 112.210 Low Jul 20
• SUP 3: 112.180/150 Low Jul 16 / Low Jul 13
• SUP 4: 112.140 Low Jul 5 and 6

The Schatz futures outlook remains bullish and the contract continues to climb. The break on Jul 20 of resistance at 112.210, Jun 11 high strengthens a bullish case with the focus on 112.335 next, a Fibonacci projection (tested) and 112.365, Jan 27 high (cont). Recent gains have also established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend. On the downside, initial support is seen at 112.245, Jul 21 low.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Remains Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: 131.37 38.2% retracement of the Aug '20 - Jun sell-off
• RES 3: 130.72 2.236 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 130.62 High Feb 22 (cont)
• RES 1: 130.48 High Jul 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 129.73 @ Close Jul 27
• SUP 1: 129.10 Low Jul 22
• SUP 2: 128.54/39 Low Jul 14 / High Jun 11 and recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 128.03 Jul 6
• SUP 4: 127.25 Low Jun 10

Gilt futures remain below recent highs. A bullish trend condition dominates though following recent gains and the break of 129.92, Jul 8 high. The move confirms a resumption of the uptrend from mid-May and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 130.62, Feb 22 high (cont). Note, the Jul 21 close highlights an evening star candle reversal pattern, a concern for bulls. Watch support at 128.54, low Jul 14.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Bulls Still In Charge

• RES 4: 156.73 1.236 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 3: 155.44 1.00 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 2: 155.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 154.42 High Jul 26
• PRICE: 154.17 @ Close Jul 27
• SUP 1: 152.91/65 20-day EMA / Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 152.37 Bull channel base drawn off the May 19 low
• SUP 3: 151.93/54 Low Jul 8 / Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: 151.19 High Jul 1

BTPs remain bullish and traded higher once again Monday. A positive outlook follows the recent resumption of the uptrend - gains on Jul 6 and 7 resulted in a breach of a former key resistance at 152.47, Jun 14 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started May 19. Last week's fresh high prints reinforce the bullish theme and attention is on the 155.00 handle next. Initial support is at 152.77, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Pulling Away From Recent Highs

• RES 4: 4218.00 1.00 proj of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4153.00 High Jun 17 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 4121.00 High Jun 25
• RES 1: 4111.50 High Jul 23
• PRICE: 4058.00 @ 05:58 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 4029.50 High Jul 22
• SUP 2: 3944.00/3895.00 Low Jul 21 / Low Jul 19
• SUP 3: 3871.00 Low Jul 21 / Low May 19
• SUP 4: 3830.00 Low May 13 and a key support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures have pulled back from recent highs. A bullish short-term theme remains intact though following the recent print above a key near-term resistance at 4101.50, Jul 1 high. The break of this level puts on hold a recent bearish outlook and instead signals scope for a stronger recovery. Attention shifts to the 4153.00 key resistance, Jun 17 high. Key support has been defined at 3895.00.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Northbound

• RES 4: 4542.58 1.236 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4500.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4481 75.1.00 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4420.92 0.764 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• PRICE: 4392.50 @ 06:56 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 4336.88 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4265.62/4224.00 50-day EMA / Low Jul 19 and key support
• SUP 3: 4126.75 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 4046.00 Low May 19

S&P E-minis dips are considered corrective. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for a continuation near-term. The sell-off Jul 14 - 19 resulted in a break of 4279.25, Jul 8 low. However the contract found support at the 50-day EMA - the EMA represents an important trend support. The bounce from the EMA is bullish and the focus is on 4420.92 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at 4224.00, Jul 19 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U1) Remains Firm

• RES 4: $78.03 - High Oct 29, 2018 (cont)
• RES 3: $77.84 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $76.72 - High Jul 14
• RES 1: $75.39 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - 20 downleg
• PRICE: $74.89 @ 06:58 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: $72.07 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $67.44/43 - Low Jul 20 / 76.4% of the May 21 - Jul 6 rally
• SUP 3: $66.11 - Low May 24
• SUP 4: $64.22 - Low May 21

Brent futures remain firm. Price has cleared $73.87, the 61.8% retracement of the Jul 6 - 20 downleg. The breach of this level strengthens the short-term bullish case and puts on hold the recent bearish theme. The move higher also signals scope for a climb towards key resistance at $77.84, the Jul 6 high. A reversal lower is required to refocus attention on $67.44, Jul 20 low and key support.

WTI TECHS: (U1) Testing The 61.8% Retracement

• RES 4: $76.07 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $74.90 - High Jul 13
• RES 2: $73.46 - 76% retracement of the Jul 6 - 20 downleg
• RES 1: $72.43 - High Jul 26
• PRICE: $72.12 @ 07:03 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: $69.60 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $65.01/64.60 - Low Jul 20 / 76.4% of the May 21 - Jul 6 rally
• SUP 3: $63.10 - Low May 24
• SUP 4: $61.06 - Low May 21 and key support

WTI futures are consolidating and holding onto the strong rebound from $65.01, Jul 20 low. Price is testing the 61.8% retracement of the Jul 6 - 20 downleg at $71.85. A clear breach of this area would strengthen a bullish case and place on hold the recent bearish theme. It would also signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at $76.07, the Jul 6 high. A reversal lower would instead refocus attention on $65.01, Jul 20 low and the key support.

GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: $1877.5 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 3: $1863.3 - High Jun 16
• RES 2: $1853.3 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 1: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1806.9 @ 07:16 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: $1791.7/1790.0 Low Jul 12 / Low Jul 23
• SUP 2: $1774.4/1750.8 - Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 29
• SUP 3: $1733.5 -76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 4: $1723.8 - Low Apr 13

Gold remains inside its recent range and below $1834.1, Jul 15 high. The outlook is bullish though and the recent pullback is still considered corrective. Price however needs to clear $1834.1, Jul 15 high to confirm a resumption of the bull cycle. Support to watch is $1791.7, Jul 12 low that was briefly probed last week. A breach would be bearish and instead would signal scope for an extension lower towards key support at $1750.8, Jun 29 low.

SILVER TECHS: Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16
• RES 3: $26.775/27.245 - High Jul 6 and key resistance / High Jun 17
• RES 2: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 1: $25.477/761 - High Jul 23 / High Jul 19
• PRICE: $24.865 @ 07:25 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: $24.496 - Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: $24.257 - Low Apr 1
• SUP 3: $23.781 - Low Mar 31and key support
• SUP 4: $23.524 - Low Dec 7, 2020

Silver traded lower yesterday confirming a resumption of the downtrend. The metal remains bearish with the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs continuing to dominate. Attention is on $24.257, Apr 1 low and the potential for weakness towards key support $23.781, the Mar 31 low. Moving average studies also point south, reinforcing the current trend direction. Initial resistance is at $25.477, Jul 23 high.