MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDCAD Still Appears Vulnerable

Price Signal Summary – USDCAD Still Appears Vulnerable

• S&P E-Minis are broadly unchanged, having recovered from yesterday’s low. The short-term outlook is bullish. Last week’s gains confirmed a break above the 50-day EMA. This reinforces a bullish theme and suggests scope for a climb towards 4145.75 next, the Jun 9 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are unchanged and the contract continues to consolidate. The short-term outlook remains bullish and the current pause in the bull cycle appears to be a bull flag.
• GBPUSD is trading closer to its most recent highs and the pair remains in a short-term corrective bull cycle. Recent gains signal scope for a stronger short-term correction and attention is on the 50-day EMA at 1.2213 - a key resistance point. USDJPY is unchanged and still trading closer to its recent lows and at levels around the 20-day EMA that intersects at 136.70. The recent move lower is considered corrective and attention is on two key support levels; 135.30, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 4 low and 134.27, the Jun 23 low. USDCAD still appears vulnerable and the pair is trading at its recent lows. 1.2819, the Jun 28 low and the next key support, remains exposed. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and confirm a clear break of both the 20- and 50-day EMA values.
• Gold is unchanged and remains above last Thursday’s low of $1681.0. Short-term gains are considered corrective, however, any break above resistance at $1745.4, the Jul 13 high, would strengthen a bullish set-up and suggest scope for a stronger bounce. WTI futures trend conditions remain bearish and recent gains are still considered corrective. The contract continues to trade below the 50-day EMA, at $101.18.
• Bund futures resumed the current bull cycle on Tuesday and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The break higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and price is moving further away from the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and the contract resumed its climb on Tuesday. This highlights an extension of the recent breach of resistance at 117.09, the Jul 6 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Short-Term Resistance Intact

• RES 4: 1.0441 Bull channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 3: 1.0393 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0359 Low Jun 15
• RES 1: 1.0229/78 20-day EMA / High Jul 21
• PRICE: 1.0148 @ 06:12 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 1.0108 Low Jul 26
• SUP 2: 1.0064/0.9952 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD traded lower Tuesday and price remains below immediate resistance at 1.0278, the Jul 21 high. The move lower yesterday raises the risk of a return back toward recent lows below parity, at 0.8852 (Jul 14). To the upside, a break above 1.0278 would once again resume short-term bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension higher within the bull channel - the top intersects at 1.0441.

GBPUSD TECHS: Holding On To Recent Gains

• RES 4: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 3: 1.2213 High Jun 29 / 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.2125 High Jul 5
• RES 1: 1.2090 High Jul 26
• PRICE: 1.2054 @ 06:17 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 1.1890/1760 Low Jul 21 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1640 Low Mar 25 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1503 Low Mar 24 2020

GBPUSD is trading closer to its most recent highs and the pair remains in a short-term corrective bull cycle. Recent gains signal scope for a stronger short-term correction and attention is on the 50-day EMA at 1.2213 - a key resistance point. The primary trend direction is down. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 1.1673 next, a Fibonacci projection. The key support to watch is at 1.1760, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger.

EURGBP TECHS: Approaching Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 3: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Jun 15 / bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8627/79 High Jul 4 / High Jul 1
• RES 1: 0.8511/0.8585 50-day EMA / High Jul 21
• PRICE: 0.8419 @ 06:26 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 0.8403/8393 Low Jul 12 / Low May 17 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.8367 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 4: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 and a key support

A sharp drop in EURGBP Tuesday reinforces bearish conditions and suggests the recent corrective cycle is over. Last week’s high of 0.8585 (Jul 21) has been defined as a key short-term resistance where a break would signal scope for a stronger recovery. While this resistance holds, the focus is on support at 0.8393, May 17 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish case and clear the way for a deeper sell-off towards 0.8367.

USDJPY TECHS: Watching The Key Support Zone

• RES 4: 141.47 1.382 proj of the Jun 16 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 140.71 1.236 proj of the Jun 16 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 2: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 137.96/39.39 High Jul 22 / 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 136.97 @ 08:32 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 135.57 Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 135.30 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 4 low
• SUP 3: 134.27 Low Jun 23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 132.17 Low Jun 17

USDJPY is unchanged and still trading closer to its recent lows and at levels around the 20-day EMA that intersects at 136.70. The recent move lower is considered corrective and attention is on two key support levels; 135.30, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 4 low and 134.27, the Jun 23 low. A break of this support zone would signal scope for stronger reversal. The primary uptrend is intact, 139.39, the Jul 14 high, is the bull trigger.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 144.28 High Jun 28 and key resistance
• RES 3: 143.85 High Jun 29
• RES 2: 142.32/48 High Jul 21 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 140.69 High Jul 22
• PRICE: 138.98 @ 06:40 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 138.13 Low Jul 26
• SUP 2: 137.99/36.87 Low Jul 14 / Low Jul 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 136.25 Low May 30
• SUP 4: 135.40 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 28 climb

EURJPY found firm resistance last week at 142.32, on Jul 21. The move lower signals the end of a corrective recovery between Jul 8 - 21. A continuation lower would expose 136.87, the Jul 8 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. For bulls, a move above 142.32 would instead suggest scope for a climb towards key resistance at 144.28, the Jun 28 high and a bull trigger.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 0.7141 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 2: 0.7069 High Jun 16
• RES 1: 0.6983 High Jul 26
• PRICE: 0.6938 @ 06:50 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 0.6859 Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 0.6786/6682 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6588 Low May 28 2020

AUDUSD is unchanged and consolidating closer to its recent highs. The short-term outlook is bullish and a corrective cycle remains in play. A resumption of gains would open the Jun 16 high at 0.7069, and potentially 0.7141 further out, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg. Any reversal lower would instead refocus attention on the 0.6682 bear trigger, Jul 14 low, where a break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3224 High Jul 14
• RES 3: 1.3171/96 3.0% Upper Boll Band / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3038 High Jul 18
• RES 1: 1.2947 High Jul 25
• PRICE: 1.2857 @ 06:59 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 1.2819 Low Jun 28 and key support
• SUP 2: 1.2763 Low Jun 13
• SUP 3: 1.2678 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2685 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 upleg

USDCAD still appears vulnerable and the pair is trading at its recent lows. 1.2819, the Jun 28 low and the next key support, remains exposed. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and confirm a clear break of both the 20- and 50-day EMA values. This would open 1.2763, the Jun 13 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is unchanged at 1.3038. A break would ease the current bearish threat.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Extends Gains

• RES 4: 159.79 High Apr 4 (cont)
• RES 3: 157.87 High Apr 7 (cont)
• RES 2: 157.21 1.50 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 156.28 High Jul 26
• PRICE: 155.81 @ 04:57 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 153.78/151.86 Low Jul 25 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 149.69 Low Jul 21 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 148.24 Low Jul 1
• SUP 4: 144.72 Low Jun 28 and a key support

Bund futures resumed the current bull cycle on Tuesday and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The break higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and price is moving further away from the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The focus is on 157.21 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend support has been defined at 149.69, the Jul 21 low. A break of this level is required to signal a potential top.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Fresh Trend High

• RES 4: 128.380 High May 12 (cont)
• RES 3: 128.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 127.940 1.50 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 127.300 High Jul 26
• PRICE: 127.030 @ 05:06 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 125.376 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 124.030 Low Jul 21 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 123.010 Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 121.910 Low Jun 28 and a support

Bobl futures outlook remains bullish and the contract traded to a fresh short-term trend high yesterday. This confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 127.940, a Fibonacci projection. The contract has defined a key short-term key support at 124.030, the Jul 21 low. A break of this level is required to signal a reversal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 110.412 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 110.256 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 110.063 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 110.020 High Jul 26
• PRICE: 109.930 @ 05:18 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 109.481 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 108.950 Low Jul 21 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 108.760/425 Low Jun 30 / Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 108.025 Low Jun 21

Schatz futures found support last week at 108.95, on Jul 21. This level has been defined as a key short-term trend support. A break would signal a reversal. The current uptrend remains intact and yesterday’s gains reinforce this condition. This signals scope for a climb towards 110.063 and 110.256, Fibonacci projections. Note that price is also trading above the 50- and 20-day EMAs, a bullish set-up.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Northbound

• RES 4: 118.71 1.50 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 3: 118.63 High May 24
• RES 2: 118.16 1.382 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 1: 118.08 High Jul 26
• PRICE: 117.73 @ Close Jul 26
• SUP 1: 116.41/115.65 Low Jul 22 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 114.08/113.03 Low Jul 8 / Low Jun 30
• SUP 3: 111.72 Low Jun 29 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 110.57 Low Jun 21

The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and the contract resumed its climb on Tuesday. This highlights an extension of the recent breach of resistance at 117.09, the Jul 6 high. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and paves the way for a climb towards 118.16 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 114.08, the Jul 8 low.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.00 High May 12
• RES 2: 127.79 High May 26
• RES 1: 124.79/126.41 High Jul 20 / High Jul 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 124.17 @ Close Jul 26
• SUP 1: 119.57 Low Jul 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 3: 115.72 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 113.78 Contract Low

The BTP futures short-term trend condition remains bullish. The contract found support last week at 119.57, the Jul 22 low. This level has been defined as a key short-term support and if breached, would highlight a stronger reversal. An extension higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 126.41, the Jul high and bull trigger. A break would resume the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 127.79, the May 26 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 3722.70 76.4% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg
• RES 3: 3689.00 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 3650.10 61.8% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg
• RES 1: 3620.00 High Jul 22
• PRICE: 3579.00 @ 05:24 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 3525.60/3467.00 Low Jul 26 / Low Jul 18 / 19
• SUP 2: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3321.30 50.0% of the major 2020 - 2021 upleg (cont)
• SUP 4: 3300.00 Round number support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are unchanged and the contract continues to consolidate. The short-term outlook remains bullish and the current pause in the bull cycle appears to be a bull flag. If correct, this reinforces short-term bullish conditions and suggests scope for a stronger recovery towards 3689.00, the Jun 10 high. The key support and bear trigger is unchanged at 3343.00, Jul 5 low. Initial support is at 3467.00, the Jul 18 / 19 low.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Recovers From Tuesday’s Low

• RES 4: 4306.50 High May 4
• RES 3: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4145.75 High Jun 9
• RES 1: 4016.25 High Jul 22
• PRICE: 3957.75 @ 06:56 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 3900.64 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3820.25 Low Jul 18
• SUP 3: 3723.75/3639.00 Low Jul 14 / Low Jun 17 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis are broadly unchanged, having recovered from yesterday’s low. The short-term outlook is bullish. Last week’s gains confirmed a break above the 50-day EMA. This reinforces a bullish theme and suggests scope for a climb towards 4145.75 next, the Jun 9 high. The next key resistance is at 4204.75, the May 31 high. On the downside, the 20-day EMA, at 3900.64, is the first support to watch. Major support lies at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U2) Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $118.12 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $116.24 - High Jun 29 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $114.75 - High Jul 5
• RES 1: $107.02/61 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 19
• PRICE: $105.22 @ 07:06 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: $101.50 - Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: $98.17/94.50 - Low Jul 15 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $90.33 - Low Mar 17
• SUP 4: $89.60 - Low Mar 15 and a key support

Brent futures trend conditions remain bearish and recent gains are still considered corrective. Resistance has been defined at $107.61, the Jul 19 high. Price continues to trade below the 50-day EMA, at $107.02. A clear breach of this EMA, would alter the picture and instead suggest scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards $94.50, the Jul 14 low and a bear trigger.

WTI TECHS: (U2) Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Intact

• RES 4: $113.87 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $111.14 - High Jun 29 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: $101.18/108.28- 50-day EMA / High Jul 5
• RES 1: $98.89 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $95.82 @ 07:15 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: $93.01/88.23 - Low Jul 25 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $85.37 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $83.51 - 1.50 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 4: $81.34 - 1.618 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing

WTI futures trend conditions remain bearish and recent gains are still considered corrective. The contract continues to trade below the 50-day EMA, at $101.18. Clearance of this average is required to strengthen bullish conditions and signal a stronger reversal. A resumption of weakness would open $88.23, the Jul 14 low and the bear trigger. A breach of this level, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and expose $85.37, Mar 15 low.

GOLD TECHS: Still Trading Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: $1819.5 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 3: $1789.6 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $1787.0 - Low May 16, recent breakout level
• RES 1: $1745.4 - High Jul 13
• PRICE: $1719.6 @ 07:21 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: $1681.0 - Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: $1680.5 - 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021
• SUP 4: $1638.0 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Gold is unchanged and remains above last Thursday’s low of $1681.0. Short-term gains are considered corrective, however, any break above resistance at $1745.4, the Jul 13 high, would strengthen a bullish set-up and suggest scope for a stronger bounce. Moving average studies continue to highlight a bear trend. A break of $1681.0 would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

SILVER TECHS: Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 3: $20.442 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $20.464 - Low May 13 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: $19.242 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $18.629 @ 08:02 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: $18.146/18.000 - Low Jul 14 / Round number support
• SUP 2: $17.312 - 3.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 4: $16.735 - Low May 22 2020

Silver remains in consolidation mode. The outlook is bearish and recent weakness confirmed a continuation of the current bear cycle that started Jun 6 and marks an extension of the broader downtrend that has been in place since early February 2021. MA studies are in a bear mode condition, highlighting current sentiment. Sights are on $17.312 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 20-day EMA, at $19.242 is a key short-term resistance.