MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Hitting Fresh Trend High

Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Registers Fresh Trend High Print

In the FX space:
- EURUSD has started the week on a softer note. Last week's gains stalled at 1.1990, Mar 11 high. This represents the trigger for a stronger corrective recovery. Continued weakness would open 1.1836, Mar 9 low where a break would confirm a resumption of this year's downtrend.
- USDJPY remains in an uptrend and has registered a fresh trend high print today. The focus is on 109.56, 61.8% of the Mar 2020 - Jan downleg and an important pivot resistance. Support is at 108.34 Mar 10 low.
The trend is overbought. Price however has yet to display a reversal and signal a top.

On the commodity front, a bullish engulfing candle in Gold on Mar 9 suggests a potential short-term base at $1676.9, Mar 8 low. The focus is on the 20-day EMA at $1748.1. For bears, a break of $1676.9 is needed to resume the downtrend instead. Oil contracts remain below the Mar 8 high. The key directional triggers are:
- Brent (K1) - $71.38, Mar 8 high and $66.50, Mar 10 low.
- WTI (J1) - $67.98, Mar 8 high and $63.13, Mar 10 low.

In the FI space, BTP futures (M1) rallied last week. A break of 150.69, 76.4% retracement of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off is needed to further strengthen a bullish argument. In Bunds (M1), the resistance to watch today is 172.20, Mar 11 high and in Gilts (M1), 129.27, Mar 2 high remains the key near-term resistance. Gilt futures are approaching key support at 127.55, Feb 26 low and the bear trigger. A break would open 127.37, 61.8% of the 2018 - 2020 bullish cycle (cont). Trend conditions in Treasuries remain bearish. Key support at 131-23, Mar 12 low remains exposed. A break would open 130-07, Feb 2, 2020 low.

In the equity space, bulls remain in charge. The E-mini S&P futures bull trigger is last week's high of 3949.00. A break would open the psychological 4000.00 level.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Attention Is On The 1.1990 Resistance

• RES 4: 1.2113 High Mar 3
• RES 3: 1.2067 High Mar 4
• RES 2: 1.2009 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1990 High Mar 11
• PRICE: 1.1937 @ 05:45 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 1.1910 Low Mar 12
• SUP 2: 1.1842/36 200-DMA / Low Mar 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1800 Low Nov 23
• SUP 4: 1.1752 1.236 proj of the Jan 6 - Feb 5 - Feb 25 price swing

EURUSD remains below resistance at 1.1990, Mar 11 high. Last week's gains resulted in a break of 1.1952, Feb 25 high suggesting scope for an extension higher near-term. A breach of 1.1990 would clear the way for a recovery and expose the 20-day EMA at 1.2009. From a broader trend perspective, a downtrend remains intact. An extension lower and a breach of 1.1836, Mar 9 low would resume this trend.

GBPUSD TECHS: Attention Is On The Channel Base

• RES 4: 1.4205 Bull channel top drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low
• RES 3: 1.4182 High Feb 25
• RES 2: 1.4062 61.8% retracement of the Feb 24 - Mar 5 low
• RES 1: 1.4017 High Mar 4 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.3873 @ 05:54 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 1.3793/79 50-day EMA / Low Mar 8
• SUP 2: 1.3768 Bull channel drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low
• SUP 3: 1.3663 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Feb 4

Friday's sell-off in GBPUSD suggests the end of the recent corrective bounce. The short-term outlook is bearish following the sell-off between Feb 24 - Mar 5. An extension lower would open 1.3779, Mar 5 low ahead of a key bull channel support that intersects at 1.3768 today. The channel is drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low and a break would represent an important short-term reversal. Firm resistance remains 1.4017, Mar 4 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Risk Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Feb 9
• RES 3: 0.8742 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.8668/8731 High Mar 3 / High Feb 26 and the S/T bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8627 High Mar 8
• PRICE: 0.8603 @ 06:07 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 0.8548 Low Mar 11
• SUP 2: 0.8541 Low Feb 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: 0.8495 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band

EURGBP is firmer but remains in consolidation mode. The outlook is bearish. Technical signals continue to highlight a bearish condition and attention is on 0.8541, Feb 24 low. A break of this support would resume the downtrend and expose 0.8495, a volatility based support area. On the upside, firm short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8731, Feb 26 high. A break would allow for a stronger corrective bounce leaving the 50-day EMA at 0.8742 exposed.

USDJPY TECHS: Trading At Recent Highs

• RES 4: 110.63 0.764 proj of Mar - Apr 2020 rally from Jan 6 low
• RES 3: 109.85 High Jun 5, 2020
• RES 2: 109.70 High Jun 8, 2020
• RES 1: 109.56 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2020 - Jan downleg
• PRICE: 109.18 @ 06:17 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 108.34 Low Mar 110
• SUP 2: 107.82 Low Mar 5
• SUP 3: 106.97 Low Mar 4
• SUP 4: 106.68 Low Mar 2 and 3

USDJPY Traded higher again yesterday registering a print above last week's high of 109.23. Trend conditions are bullish and Monday's break confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Attention is on 109.56, a key retracement level. Momentum studies remain in overbought territory however this is still not having an impact on the trend and instead, the set-up continues to reinforce the current bullish mood. Support to watch is at 108.34, Mar 10 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 132.06 76.4% of the Mar 2018 - May 2020 downtrend
• RES 3: 131.58 High Oct 4 2018
• RES 2: 131.22 1.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 1: 130.49 High Mar 15
• PRICE: 130.24 @ 06:24 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 129.23 Low Mar 11
• SUP 2: 128.78 Low Mar 8 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 2
• SUP 4: 127.75 50-day EMA

EURJPY last week breached 129.98, the bull trigger and the Feb 25 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and sets the scene for a climb towards 131.22, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average conditions continue to point north, reinforcing underlying bullish conditions. On the downside, support has been defined at 128.78, Mar 8 low. A break of this level is required to alter the picture.

AUDUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7883 High Feb 26
• RES 2: 0.7838 High Mar 2 and 3 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.7800 High Mar 12
• PRICE: 0.7748 @ 06:28 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 0.7711/06 50-day EMA / Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 0.7621 Low Mar 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.7583/64 Low Feb 5 / Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 0.7509 3.0% 10-dma envelope

Last week's AUDUSD gains stalled at 0.7800. The broader outlook is bearish following the sharp sell-off between Feb 29 - Mar 9. Furthermore, the breach on May 5 of 0.7693, Feb 26 low reinforces the current short-term bearish theme, signalling scope for weakness towards 0.7564, Feb 2 low. Firm short-term resistance has been defined at 0.7838, high Mar 2 and 3. A break would alter the picture, allowing for a stronger recovery.

USDCAD TECHS: Resumes Its Bear Trend

• RES 4: 1.2763 High Feb 12
• RES 3: 1.2749 High Feb 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2700 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 1.2625 High Mar 11
• PRICE: 1.2481 @ 06:36 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 1.2441 Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 1.2350 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.2278 Trendline Drawn From May 2015 Low
• SUP 4: 1.2251 Low Jan 31, 2018 and Key Support

USDCAD is consolidating but maintains a weaker tone. The pair has broken key support at 1.2468, Feb 25 low and the bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend and paves the way for weakness towards 1.2400 and below. Moving average conditions remain in a bear mode reinforcing current conditions. Key trend resistance has been defined at 1.2749, Feb 26 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Key Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 173.46 High Dec 12
• RES 3: 172.83 Low May 5
• RES 2: 175.51 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 172.20 High Mar 11
• PRICE: 171.84 @ 05:02 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 170.72 Low Mar 5
• SUP 2: 170.37 61.8% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 11 rally
• SUP 3: 169.94 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 11 rally
• SUP 4: 169.24 Low Feb 25 and the bear trigger

Bund futures continue to trade below resistance at 172.20, Mar 11 high. This level represents a key short-term resistance, where a break is required to trigger stronger gains. While it holds, a bearish risk remains present and fresh weakness would suggest scope for a retest of 169.24, Feb 25 low. Note, the pattern on Mar 11 is a shooting star candle, reinforcing the current bearish theme.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Testing Key Resistance At 135.180

• RES 4: 135.700 High Dec 11 (cont)
• RES 3: 135.580 High Feb 11
• RES 2: 135.270 Low Feb 8
• RES 1: 135.190 Intraday high
• PRICE: 135.180 @ 05:12 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 134.730 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 134.660 50.0% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 high
• SUP 3: 134.537 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 high
• SUP 4: 134.537 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 high

Bobl futures last week defined a key short-term resistance at 135.180 on Mar 11 where a break is required to trigger stronger gains. This level has today been probed and a clear break would pave the way for strength towards 135.270 initially, Feb 8 low. A failure at this resistance would keep the recent bearish risk intact and fresh weakness would suggest scope for a test of 134.730, Mar 1 low and the trigger for a move towards 134.140, Feb 26 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Still In A Range And Consolidating

• RES 4: 112.250 High Feb 15 (cont)
• RES 3: 112.223 50-day EMA (cont)
• RES 2: 112.167 20-day EMA (cont)
• RES 1: 112.125 High Mar 1 and 2
• PRICE: 112.105 @ 05:17 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 112.045 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 112.033 50.0% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 rally
• SUP 3: 112.011 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 rally
• SUP 4: 111.984 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 rally

The Schatz futures outlook is unchanged. The contract is consolidating but remains in a bear trend. However, the recent recovery from 111.940, Feb 26 low, means this market remains in a corrective phase. Short-term resistance is at 112.125, Mar 1/2 high. A break would signal scope for stronger gains. On the downside, a pullback would suggest scope for a return to 111.940, Feb 26 low and the bear trigger.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Fresh Trend Low

• RES 4: 130.46 High Feb 16
• RES 3: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 2: 129.27 High Mar 2 and the key resistance
• RES 1: 128.20 High Mar 12
• PRICE: 128.01 @ Close Mar 15
• SUP 1: 127.31 Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 127.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 126.85 Low May 3, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)

Gilt futures traded lower yesterday and breached key support at 127.55, Feb 26 low. The break lower confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend that has been in place since early August last year as the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs extends. The focus is on a move to 127.00 next and 126.85 further out, May 3, 2019 low (cont). On the upside, key resistance remains 129.27, Mar 2 high. A break would signal a reversal.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Holding Onto Gains

• RES 4: 151.33 1.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 5 price swing
• RES 3: 151.05 1.50 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 5 price swing
• RES 2: 150.69 76.4% retracement of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off
• RES 1: 150.39 High Mar 11
• PRICE: 149.89 @ Close Mar 15
• SUP 1: 148.95 Low Mar 11
• SUP 2: 148.05 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 147.56 Low Mar 5
• SUP 4: 146.84 Low Feb 26 and the bear trigger

BTP futures are trading closer to recent highs following last week's gains. While the move higher since Feb 26 may still be a correction, the strong rally last week suggests scope for an extension higher. The focus is on 150.69, 76.4% retracement of the decline between Feb 12 - 26. A breach of this level would expose the key resistance and all time high at 151.88 from Feb 12. Firm support is at the Mar 11 low of 148.95.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 Techs: Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 3900.30 High May 2008
• RES 3: 3889.08 1.618 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 2: 3867.28 High Feb 20, 2020
• RES 1: 3858.79 1.500 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• PRICE: 3829.84 @ Close Mar 15
• SUP 1: 3780.00 Low Mar 10
• SUP 2: 3742.53 High Feb 15 and recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 3656.21 Low Mar 5 and the key near-term support
• SUP 4: 3622.24 Low Feb 26 and the bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 bullish conditions remain intact and the index edged higher yesterday. The break on Mar 8 of 3742.53, Feb 15 high confirmed a resumption of the underlying uptrend and bulls haven't looked back. This maintains the underlying bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 3867.28 next, the Feb 20, 2020 high. Firm support is seen at 3742.53. Key trend support lies at 3622.24, Feb 26 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K1) Attention Is On Support

• RES 4: $71.95 - High Sep 16, 2019
• RES 3: $71.75 - High Jan 8, 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: $71.38 - High Mar 5
• RES 1: $70.03 - High Mar 15
• PRICE: $68.30@ 06:31 Mar 16
• SUP 1: $66.50 - Low Mar 10
• SUP 2: $65.76 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $62.38 - Low Mar 2 and 3
• SUP 4: $62.55 - Trendline support drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low

Brent crude futures remain in an uptrend however last week's pullback between Mar 8 - 10 suggests the contract has entered a corrective cycle. The trend condition has been overbought for some time and an extension lower would allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Attention is on the 20-day EMA at $65.76. A breach of the average would open $62.38, Mar 2 and 3 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at $71.38, the Mar 5 high.

WTI TECHS: (J1) Bearish Risk Still Present

• RES 4: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $69.66 - High Oct 23, 2018 (cont)
• RES 2: $67.98 - High Mar and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $66.40 - High Mar 15
• PRICE: $64.79 @ 06:39 Mar 16
• SUP 1: $63.13 - Low Mar 10
• SUP 2: $62.57 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $59.40 - Trendline support drawn off the Nov 2 low
• SUP 4: $59.24 - Low Mar 3

WTI futures remain in an uptrend however trend conditions appear to have entered a corrective cycle. This follows the pullback last week between Mar 8 - 10. The trend condition has been overbought for some time and a correction would allow this overbought set-up to unwind. Scope is seen for a move towards the 20-day EMA at $62.57. A breach of the average would expose $59.24, Mar 3 low. Key resistance is at $67.98.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $1805.7 - High Feb 25
• RES 3: $1760.7/75.9 - Low Feb 19 / High Feb 26
• RES 2: $1746.6 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $1740.7 - High Mar 3
• PRICE: $1731.3 @ 07:00 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: $1699.3 - Low Mar 12
• SUP 2: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1671.0 - Low Jun 5, 2020
• SUP 4: $1659.6 - Low Apr 21, 2020

Gold remains in a clear downtrend however price action on Mar 9 suggests the yellow metal may have found a base. Price action on this day is a bullish engulfing candle . If correct, it signals scope for a short-term correction that would allow the current oversold momentum reading to unwind. A climb would open the 20-day EMA at $1746.6. Key support is at $1676.9, Mar 8 low low. A break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend instead.

SILVER TECHS: Still Looking For A Move Lower

• RES 4: $28.328 - High Feb 23 and key resistance
• RES 3: $27.595 - High Feb 26
• RES 2: $27.081 - High Mar 1 and firm near-term resistance
• RES 1: $26.459 - High Mar 11
• PRICE: $26.067 @ 07:10 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: $24.836/700 - Low Mar 5 / Low Jan 27
• SUP 2: $24.057 - Jan 18 low and a key support
• SUP 3: $23.524 - Low Dec 7
• SUP 4: $22.591 - Low Dec 1

Silver is consolidating. A bearish risk remains intact and the sell-off between Feb 23 - Mar 5 reinforces this current theme. A former key support at $25.905, Feb 4 low has been cleared and this sets the scene for a deeper pullback exposing $24.700, Jan 27 low ahead of the Jan 18 low at $24.057. On the upside, firm near-term resistance is seen at $27.081, Mar 1 high. Initial resistance is at $26.459, the Mar 11 high.