MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WTI Bounce Shallow, Negative for Now

Price Signal Summary - WTI Bounce Shallow, Negative for Now

• S&P E-minis have traded to a low of 4075.50 today. The contract has found support and this leaves price above a key short-term level at 4068.75, the Apr 26 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper short-term pullback. A key short-term support in Eurostoxx 50 futures at 4285.10 has been breached this week - the 20-day EMA. The recent move down is considered corrective for now. A continuation lower would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback towards 4219.00, the 50-day EMA.
• The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and a fresh cycle high this week reinforces current conditions, maintaining the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 1.2599, the Jun 7 2022 high and 1.2667, the May 27 high last year. USDJPY traded lower Wednesday, extending the pullback from Tuesday’s high of 137.77 high. Price has pierced support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 134.43. The 50-day EMA lies at 133.84. A clear breach of this support zone would undermine the recent bullish theme. The recent bounce in USDCAD appears to be a correction and a bearish threat remains present. The failure to hold on to last Friday’s high exposes 1.3547, the 20-day EMA, which has been pierced.
• WTI futures remain bearish and have traded in a volatile manner today - the contract has recovered from its intraday low of $63.64. The print below $64.58, the Mar 20 low and a key support, reinforces a bearish theme. Gold traded higher Wednesday to cancel any short-term bearish threat. Instead, the yellow metal traded through resistance at $2048.7, the Apr 13 high and confirmed a resumption of the broader uptrend. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• Bund futures traded higher Wednesday and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Bullish conditions remain intact and the focus is on 136.70, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open 136.88, the Apr 11 high. Gilt futures traded higher Wednesday. Resistance at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 101.95, has been breached. This opens 102.63, 38.2% of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg. A break of this retracement would strengthen bullish conditions.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 1.1225 1.236 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 2: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1095 High Apr 26 and key resistance
• PRICE: 1.1082 @ 05:33 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 1.0999/42 Low May 3 / 2 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.0909 Low Apr 17
• SUP 3: 1.0872/31 50-day EMA / Low Apr 10
• SUP 4: 1.0788 Low Apr 3

EURUSD remains in an uptrend and the pair continues to recover from Tuesday’s low. Sights are on 1.1095, the Apr 26 high and bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.1127, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition highlighting bullish sentiment. Key S/T support has been defined at 1.0942, Tuesday’s low. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper correction.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Price Sequence Extends

• RES 4: 1.2759 61.8% of the Jun 1 ‘21 - Sep 26 ‘22 downtrend
• RES 3: 1.2733 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2667 High May 27 2022
• RES 1: 1.2599 High Jun 7 2022
• PRICE: 1.2587 @ 06:15 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 1.2450 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10
• SUP 3: 1.2338 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2275 Low Apr 3

The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and a fresh cycle high this week reinforces current conditions, maintaining the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 1.2599, the Jun 7 2022 high and 1.2667, the May 27 high last year. Support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 1.2450. A clear break of this average is required to signal a short-term top and suggest scope for a deeper correction.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8880 61.8 retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.8839 High Apr 28
• PRICE: 0.8807 @ 06:34 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 0.8760 Low May 1
• SUP 2: 0.8729 Low Apr 4
• SUP 3: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8691 Low Dec 19

EURGBP remains above its recent lows. The Apr 28 sell-off continues to highlight a bearish threat. The cross cleared support at 0.8792, the Apr 19 low and a resumption of weakness would pave the way for a test of support at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low and a key level. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8875, the Apr 25 high. A break of this hurdle would reinstate a bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Testing The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 139.89 High Nov 30 2022
• RES 3: 139.59 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Jan bear cycle
• RES 2: 138.17 High Dec 15
• RES 1: 136.63/137.91 High May 3 / High Mar 8 and key resistance
• PRICE: 134.46 @ 06:56 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 134.35 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 133.84 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 133.02 Low Apr 26 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 132.02 Low Apr 13

USDJPY traded lower Wednesday, extending the pullback from Tuesday’s high of 137.77 high. Price has pierced support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 134.43. The 50-day EMA lies at 133.84. A clear breach of this support zone would undermine the recent bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback. Key resistance is unchanged at 137.91, the Mar 8 high. A break would be bullish.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 153.62 1.618 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 152.81 1.50 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 1: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 149.09 @ 07:16 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 148.83 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 148.62 High Apr 25 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 147.50 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 146.29 Low Apr 25 and a key short-term support

EURJPY remains below the week’s best levels. The trend condition is bullish following recent gains and a move lower is considered corrective. 151.00 has been cleared, the 1.236 projection of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing and this opens 152.00 next, the 1.382 projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 146.29, the Apr 25 low, where a break is required to signal a short-term reversal. Initial firm support lies at 148.62, the Apr 25 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 2: 0.6772/0.6806 High Apr 20 / Apr 14 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6708/17 50-day EMA / High May 2
• PRICE: 0.6674 @ 07:21 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 0.6621/6565 Low May 3 / Low Mar 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6547 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 3: 0.6500 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

AUDUSD briefly tested levels just above the 50-day EMA earlier this week. The EMA intersects at 0.6708. A clear breach of this average is required to suggest scope for a stronger bounce and open 0.6772, Apr 20 high. On the downside, the key support to watch lies at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend that started on Feb 2 and pave the way for weakness towards 0.6547, a Fibonacci retracement point.

USDCAD TECHS: Key Resistance Intact For now

• RES 4: 1.3846 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 2: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 1: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
• PRICE: 1.3598 @ 07:59 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 1.3547/28 20-day EMA / Low May 2
• SUP 2: 1.3473 Low Apr 21
• SUP 3: 1.3385/3302 Low Apr 19 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3275 Low Feb 14

The recent bounce in USDCAD appears to be a correction and a bearish threat remains present. The failure to hold on to last Friday’s high exposes 1.3547, the 20-day EMA, which has been pierced. This EMA represents an important level and a break would highlight a stronger bearish threat, signalling scope for 1.3473, the Apr 21 low. On the upside, a recovery and break of 1.3668, Apr 28 high, would reinstate the recent bull cycle.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 138.09 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 137.55 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 136.88 High Apr 11
• RES 1: 136.70 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• PRICE: 136.52 @ 05:10 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 135.911 Low Apr 3
• SUP 2: 135.11 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 133.64/133.10 Low Apr 28 / 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 132.70 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally

Bund futures traded higher Wednesday and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Bullish conditions remain intact and the focus is on 136.70, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open 136.88, the Apr 11 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at the Apr 19 low of 133.10. This is the bear trigger and a break would reinstate the recent bearish theme. Initial support is at 135.11, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Northbound

• RES 4: 119.621 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 downleg
• RES 3: 119.190 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 119.009 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 downleg
• RES 1: 118.600 Intraday high
• PRICE: 118.530 @ 05:37 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 117.621 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 117.370 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 116.890/420 Low Apr 28 / 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.370 Low Mar 15

A continued recovery in Bobl futures this week reinforces a bullish theme. The contract has cleared recent resistance at 118.030, the Apr 26 high, and this confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Apr 19. The focus is on a climb towards 119.009 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support has been defined at 116.420, the Apr 19 low, where a break would reinstate a bearish theme. Initial firm support is 117.370, Tuesday’s low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 106.190 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 106.060 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 106.000 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 105.890 Intraday high
• PRICE: 105.840 @ 06:13 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 105.581/350 20-day EMA / Low Apr 28
• SUP 2: 105.165 Low Apr 19 / 24 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally

A short-term recovery in Schatz futures remains intact with the contract trading higher again today. This signals potential for a climb towards the 106.00 handle and 106.060, a Fibonacci retracement. Price has recently cleared resistance at the 20-day EMA, reinforcing bullish conditions. Key support has been defined at 105.165, the Apr 24 / 19 low. Initial firm support lies at 105.350, the Apr 28 low.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Breaches The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 103.53 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 102.99 High Apr 14
• RES 2: 102.63 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 102.46 High May 3
• PRICE: 101.74 @ Close May 3
• SUP 1: 100.37/99.73 Low May 2 / Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 99.55 Low Mar 8
• SUP 3: 99.20 Low Feb 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 99.00 Round number support

Gilt futures traded higher Wednesday. Resistance at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 101.95, has been breached. This opens 102.63, 38.2% of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg. A break of this retracement would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 99.73. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend that started Mar 20. Initial firm support is at 100.37, Tuesday’s low.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Recovery Extends

• RES 4: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 115.92/116.97 High Apr 12 / 6
• RES 1: 115.67 High May 3
• PRICE: 115.35 @ Close May 3
• SUP 1: 114.42 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 113.70 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 112.93/89 Low Apr 24 / 61.8% of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 4: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally

BTP futures traded higher again Wednesday to resume the bull cycle that started Apr 24. The recovery signals scope for a climb towards 116.97, the Apr 6 high ahead of key resistance at 117.17, the Mar 24 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at 112.93, the Apr 24 low. Clearance of this level would instead confirm a resumption of the recent downtrend. Initial firm support is 113.70, the May 2 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4520.00 High June 2001 (cont)
• RES 3: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4363.00 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4274.00 @ 06:48 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 4252.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 4219.00 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

A key short-term support in Eurostoxx 50 futures at 4285.10 has been breached this week - the 20-day EMA. The recent move down is considered corrective for now. A continuation lower would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback towards 4219.00, the 50-day EMA. On the upside, a break of 4363.00, the Apr 21 high and bull trigger, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Remains Above Key Support

• RES 4: 4288.00 High Aug 19 2022
• RES 3: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 2: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 1: 4206.25 High May 1
• PRICE: 4116.25 @ 07:00 BST May 4
• SUP 1: 4068.75 Low Apr 26 and a key support
• SUP 2: 4061.11 38.2% retracement of the Mar 13 - Apr 18 bull leg
• SUP 3: 4052.50 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4018.75 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - Apr 18 bull leg

S&P E-minis have traded to a low of 4075.50 today. The contract has found support and this leaves price above a key short-term level at 4068.75, the Apr 26 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper short-term pullback. From a trend perspective, the condition remains bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. Clearance of 4206.25, Tuesday’s high, would confirm a resumption of the trend.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N3) Heavy!

• RES 4: $82.88 - High Apr 25
• RES 3: $80.53 - High Apr 28 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: $77.36 - Low Apr 27 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: $75.58 - High May 3
• PRICE: $72.87 @ 05:53 BST May 4
• SUP 1: $71.28 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $70.10 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

A sharp sell-off in Brent futures again Wednesday confirmed a resumption of the current bearish cycle. The contract has breached $74.66, the 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 12 bull run. Attention is on the next key support at $70.10, the Mar 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the longer-term downtrend that started in Mar 2022. Initial resistance is seen at $75.58, yesterday’s high.

WTI TECHS: (M3) Volatile And Bearish

• RES 4: $81.24 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.18 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.92 - High Apr 28 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $71.79/73.93 - High May 3 / Low Apr 28
• PRICE: $69.14 @ 06:36 BST May 4
• SUP 1: $63.64 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021
• SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $57.63 - Low Apr 5 2021

WTI futures remain bearish and have traded in a volatile manner today - the contract has recovered from its intraday low of $63.64. The print below $64.58, the Mar 20 low and a key support, reinforces a bearish theme. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. The short-term trend condition is oversold and gains would be considered corrective. Initial resistance is at $71.79, yesterday’s high.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching The All-Time High

• RES 4: $2100.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 2: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $2063.0 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $2045.1 @ 05:46 BST May 4
• SUP 1: $1995.1/69.3 - 20-day EMA / Low Apr 19 and key support
• SUP 2: $1958.5 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1934.3 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: $1900.0 - Round number support

Gold traded higher Wednesday to cancel any short-term bearish threat. Instead, the yellow metal traded through resistance at $2048.7, the Apr 13 high and confirmed a resumption of the broader uptrend. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up. The focus is on $2070.4, the Mar 8 ahead of the all-time high at $2075.5. Key support is 1969.3, the Apr 19 low.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $26.943 - High Mar 8 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $26.088 - High Apr 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $25.571 @ 08:03 BST May 4
• SUP 1: $24.492 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: $24.013 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.572 - Low Apr 3
• SUP 4: $22.828 - Low Mar 28

Silver remains in an uptrend and the recent pullback appears to be a correction. The break, on Apr 4, of resistance at $24.637, the Feb 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull trend that started early September 2022. This opens $26.222, the Apr 18 2022 high. On the downside, a key support to watch is seen at $24.909, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would signal scope for a deeper (corrective) pullback.