MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WTI Downtick Reinforces Bearish Condition

Price Signal Summary – WTI Downtick Reinforces Bearish Condition

• S&P E-Minis traded lower Thursday. The short-term outlook remains bullish and a pullback is considered corrective. A bullish theme follows recent strong gains that resulted in a break of 3928.00, the Nov 1 high. A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact and price is consolidating at its recent highs. Resistance at 3810.00, the Aug 17 high and an important bull trigger, has recently been breached.
• EURUSD trend conditions remain bullish and any short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. A positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart and a bullish moving average set-up highlights an uptrend. Short-term trend conditions in USDJPY remain bearish. The pair is consolidating and this pause appears to be a bear flag formation, reinforcing the downtrend. A continuation lower would open 137.37, the Aug 29 low. AUDUSD conditions remain bullish and this week’s move higher has reinforced current conditions. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective.
• Short-term trend conditions in Gold remain bullish. Recent gains have resulted in the break of a number of important resistance points. The yellow metal has cleared $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. WTI futures traded sharply lower Thursday, reinforcing bearish conditions and signalling scope for a continuation near-term. Attention is on the next key support at $81.30, the Oct 18 low and a bear trigger.
• Bund futures maintain a bullish tone despite yesterday’s pullback. Price has traded above the 50-day EMA at 139.93. A clear breach of this average would threaten the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger short-term reversal. Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend and the contract traded higher Thursday, extending the current uptrend. Short-term pullbacks are considered corrective.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 1.0615 High Jun 27
• RES 3: 1.0559 1.764 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0536 High Jun 29
• RES 1: 1.0479 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 1.0365 @ 05:50 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 1.0272/0163 Low Nov 14 / 11
• SUP 2: 1.0094 High Oct 27 and a key near-term resistance
• SUP 3: 0.9936 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 0.9853 Trendline support drawn from the Sep 28 low

EURUSD trend conditions remain bullish and any short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. A positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart and a bullish moving average set-up highlights an uptrend. A break of 1.0479, the Nov 15 high would confirm a resumption of the trend and open 1.0536, the late June high. Firm support lies at 1.0094 the Oct 27 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.2233 200-dma
• RES 3: 1.2141/43 4.0% 10-dma envelope / High Aug 17
• RES 2: 1.2080 High Aug 18
• RES 1: 1.2028 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 1.1892 @ 06:30 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 1.1647 Low Nov 11
• SUP 2: 1.1518 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1334/1150 Low Nov 09 / Nov 04 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1061 Low Oct 21

GBPUSD traded lower Thursday but managed to recover from the day low. The trend condition remains bullish but it is worth noting that the short-term condition appears overbought - Tuesday's gains resulted in a print above the upper band of the 3.0% 10-dma envelope, before pulling back. A deeper retracement would be considered corrective. Tuesday’s high of 1.2028 is the trigger for a resumption of gains. Firm support is at 1.1518, the 50-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.9066/9266 High Sep 28 / High Sep 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8867 High Oct 12
• RES 1: 0.8829 High Nov 09 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8718 @ 06:34 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 0.8696 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8560/59 Low Oct 31 / 76.4% of Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28

EURGBP remains in consolidation mode and is trading inside its recent range. The trend outlook is bullish following recent gains. This resulted in a break of 0.8781, the Oct 21 high. The move higher opens 0.8867 next, the Oct 12 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position and this suggests that the broader uptrend remains intact. For bears, a move through the Oct 31 low of 0.8560 is required to resume bearish activity.

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Flag Formation

• RES 4: 145.11 Low Oct 27 and a recent breakout level
• RES 3: 143.81 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 142.48 High Nov 11
• RES 1: 140.80 High Nov 14
• PRICE: 139.95 @ 06:40 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 137.68 Low Nov 15
• SUP 2: 137.37 Low Aug 29
• SUP 3: 135.82 Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: 135.49 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg

Short-term trend conditions in USDJPY remain bearish. The pair is consolidating and this pause appears to be a bear flag formation, reinforcing the downtrend. A continuation lower would open 137.37, the Aug 29 low. The pair has pierced 138.64, 61.8% of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg. A clear break of this key Fibonacci retracement would reinforce bearish conditions. The 50-day EMA at 143.81 remains a key short-term resistance.

EURJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
• RES 3: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 2: 147.10 High Nov 9
• RES 1: 146.23 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 21 high
• PRICE: 145.06 @ 06:55 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 143.93/42.57 50-day EMA / Low Nov 11 and the bear Trigger
• SUP 2: 141.78 Low Oct 13
• SUP 3: 140.90 Low Oct 10
• SUP 4: 140.00 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 21 rally

EURJPY continues to trade above 142.57, the Nov 10 low. A bearish threat remains present. Recent weakness resulted in a break of 143.80, the Oct 24 low and price traded below the 50-day EMA. A resumption of weakness would open 141.60, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 147.10, the Nov 9 high, would instead expose the bull trigger at 148.40, the Oct 21 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 0.6956 High Aug 30
• RES 3: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 0.6800 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 0.6797 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 0.6715 @ 07:59 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 0.6634/6578 Low Nov 17 / 11
• SUP 2: 0.6551/0.6545 50-day EMA / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support

AUDUSD conditions remain bullish and this week’s move higher has reinforced current conditions. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective. The pair has recently breached 0.6768, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg. The break opens the 0.6800 handle next. Firm short-term support has been defined at 0.6387, the Nov 10 low. Initial support lies at 0.6634 and 0.6578, the Nov 17 and 11 lows respectively.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3695 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 high
• RES 2: 1.3571 High Nov 10
• RES 1: 1.3456 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3316 @ 08:02 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 1.3226 Low Nov 15
• SUP 2: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 3: 1.3139 Low Sep 14
• SUP 4: 1.3023 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD remains bearish, but is trading above recent lows. Recent bearish price action has resulted in new multi-month lows and confirmed a resumption of the current downtrend. This also marks an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A continuation of the trend would open 1.3205, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3571, the Nov 10 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 3: 142.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 141.74 High Oct 5
• RES 1: 141.09 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 140.24 @ 05:14 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 138.64 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 136.92 Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 135.76/65 Low Nov 8 / 76.4% of the Oct 21 - 28 bull phase
• SUP 4: 135.23 Low Oct 24

Bund futures maintain a bullish tone despite yesterday’s pullback. Price has traded above the 50-day EMA at 139.93. A clear breach of this average would threaten the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger short-term reversal. This would open 142.87, the Oct 4 high. The 20-day EMA marks initial support - it intersects at 138.64. Key short-term support lies at 135.76, the Nov 8 low.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 121.950 High Oct 4 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 121.330 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 121.010 High Oct 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 120.530 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 119.850 @ 05:19 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 119.110/118.260 Low Nov 10 / 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 117.630 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.342 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.986 2.764 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures continue to trade below 120.530, the Nov 10 high. Recent gains have resulted in a test above the 50-day EMA, at 120.220 today. A clear break of this EMA would undermine the recent bearish theme and expose 121.010, the Oct 28 high and potentially 121.950 further out, the Oct 4 high. On the downside, a break of 118.260, the Nov 8 low is required to highlight a resumption of bearish activity and expose the key bear trigger at 117.630.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 3: 107.400 High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 107.151 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.075 High Nov 11
• PRICE: 106.770 @ 05:27 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 106.615/415 Low Nov 10 / 8
• SUP 2: 106.350 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.00 Round number support

Schatz futures continue to trade above the Nov 8 low. The trend condition is bearish, however, a resumption gains would expose resistance at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 107.151. Clearance of this average would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. On the downside, key support lies at 106.415, the Nov 8 low and 106.350, the Oct 21 low. The latter is the bear trigger.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Uptrend Extends

• RES 4: 109.47 High Aug 31 (cont)
  
• RES 3: 108.59 61.8% of the Aug 2 - Oct 12 bear leg (cont)
• RES 2: 108.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 107.17 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 106.10 @ Close Nov 17
• SUP 1: 104.64 Low Nov 16
• SUP 2: 102.74 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 101.60 Low Nov 9
• SUP 4: 99.92 Low NOv 8 and key short-term support

Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend and the contract traded higher Thursday, extending the current uptrend. Short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The recent break of 104.39, Oct 27 high, confirmed a bull flag formation on the daily chart, reinforcing bullish conditions. This has opened 108.59, a Fibonacci retracement on the continuation chart. Initial firm support lies at 102.74, the 50-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 124.35 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Sep 28 bear leg
• RES 3: 121.32 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 119.27 High Sep 8 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 118.37 @ Close Nov 17
• SUP 1: 115.39/113.80 20-day EMA / Low Nov 9
• SUP 2: 112.45 Low Nov 8
• SUP 3: 112.07/110.14 Low Oct 25 / 14
• SUP 4: 108.82 Low Oct 21

BTP futures traded higher Thursday. The contract has breached 117.93, the Oct 27 high and a key resistance at 119.06, the Sep 8 high, has been pierced. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a continuation of the current bull cycle and open the 120.00 handle. Initial firm support is seen at 115.39, the 20-day EMA ahead of 112.45, the Nov 8 low. A break below the latter would reinstate a bearish theme.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Fades, But Broader Trend Intact

• RES 4: 115-14+ 50.0% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 downleg
• RES 3: 114-17 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 113-30 High Oct 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 113-11 High Nov 16
• PRICE: 112-21 @ 15:30 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 111-14/110-12+ 20-day EMA / Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 109+10+ Low Nov 04
• SUP 3: 108-26+ Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 108-06+ Low Oct 2007 (cont)

Treasury futures faded into the Thursday close, but remain pointed higher after the recovery off the Monday lows. The contract has cleared resistance at 112-13+, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would strengthen the case for short-term bulls and open 113-30, the Oct 4 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 111-14, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would expose key support at 108-26+, the Oct 21.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 4000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 3961.20 61.8/% of the Nov ‘21 - Mar ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 2: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance (cont)
• RES 1: 3932.00 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 3884.00 @ 05:43 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 3810.00/3697.00 High Aug 17 / Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 3613.50 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3562.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3418.00 Low Oct 21

A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact and price is consolidating at its recent highs. Resistance at 3810.00, the Aug 17 high and an important bull trigger, has recently been breached. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode set-up and this highlights positive market sentiment. The focus is on 3944.00, Mar 29 high on the continuation chart. Initial firm support lies at 3697.00, the Nov 10 low.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4175.00 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 4146.63 76.4% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4050.75 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 3948.25 @ 06:49 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 3857.34 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3750.00 Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 3704.25 Low Nov 3 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 3641.50 Low Oct 21

S&P E-Minis traded lower Thursday. The short-term outlook remains bullish and a pullback is considered corrective. A bullish theme follows recent strong gains that resulted in a break of 3928.00, the Nov 1 high. This strengthens a short-term bullish condition and price has established a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily scale. The focus is on 4100.00 next. On the downside, key short-term support is at 3704.25, the Nov 3 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F3) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $102.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $100.10 - High Jul 29
• RES 2: $96.95/99.56 - High Nov 14 / 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $93.33 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $90.14 @ 06:56 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: $89.53 - Low Nov 17
• SUP 2: $87.52 - Low Oct 18 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $83.38 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $80.94 - Low Sep 26 and key medium-term support

Brent futures traded lower Thursday, marking an extension of the bear leg that started Nov 7. Recent bearish candlestick patterns (an engulfing pattern on Nov 8) provided an early reversal signal and this week’s break of support at $91.73, the Nov 10 low, reinforces a bearish theme. This signals scope for weakness towards $87.52, the Oct 18 low and a key support. Initial resistance is at $93.33, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (Z2) Sharp Sell-Off

• RES 4: $97.38 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 3: $95.55 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $90.10/93.74 - High Nov 11 / 7 and key resistance
• RES 1: $86.80 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $82.08 @ 07:08 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: $81.30 - Low Oct 18 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: $79.96 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Nov 7 bull phase
• SUP 3: $78.36 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $75.70 - Low Sep 26 and a key medium-term support

WTI futures traded sharply lower Thursday, reinforcing bearish conditions and signalling scope for a continuation near-term. Attention is on the next key support at $81.30, the Oct 18 low and a bear trigger. A break would strengthen the bearish theme and open $79.96, a Fibonacci retracement. Further out, this would also signal scope for weakness towards $75.70, the Sep 26 low. Initial resistance is seen at $86.80, the 50-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: $1833.0 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $1807.9 - High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1800.0 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $1786.5 - High Nov 15
• PRICE: $1765.1 @ 07:09 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: $1729.5/1702.3 - High Oct 4 / Low Nov 9
• SUP 2: $1700.0 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1664.8 - Low Nov 8
• SUP 4: $1615.0 - Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger

Short-term trend conditions in Gold remain bullish. Recent gains have resulted in the break of a number of important resistance points. The yellow metal has cleared $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. This strengthens the current bullish theme and opens the $1800.0 handle and a key resistance at $1807.9, Aug 10 high. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at $1702.3, the Nov 9 low. A pullback would be considered corrective.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $23.567 - High Apr 29
• RES 3: $23.360 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $22.517 - High Jun 6
• RES 1: $22.253 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• PRICE: $21.137 @ 07:25 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: $20.612 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $20.014 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $18.835/17.967 - Low Nov 3 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 4: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger

Silver has pulled back from its recent highs. However, the short-term outlook remains bullish. The metal rallied sharply higher on Nov 4 and price has breached resistance at $21.242, the Oct 4 high. The break strengthens bullish conditions and highlights a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. This opens $22.253, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support is seen at $20.612, the 20-day EMA.