MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WTI Futures Indicate More Fragility

Price Signal Summary – WTI Futures Indicate More Fragility

• S&P E-minis continue to trade inside the recent range. The trend outlook remains bullish and the recent break of resistance at 4244.00, the Feb 2 high, reinforces current conditions. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started in October 2022. Eurostoxx 50 futures are consolidating and price remains above 4216.00, the May 31 low and a key support. For now, the recent move higher appears to be a correction. The recent breach of support at 4252.00, the May 25 low, highlights a potential bearish threat.
• EURUSD traded higher Thursday and pierced initial resistance at 1.0779, the Jun 2 high. A clear breach of this level would improve S/T conditions for bulls and highlight a potential bottoming of the bear trend - allowing for a stronger correction. EURGBP continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The primary trend direction remains down, highlighted by a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, moving average studies also highlight a bearish condition. The AUDUSD bull cycle that started on May 31 remains in play and the pair is trading at its recent highs. Resistance at the 50-day EMA has been cleared. The break signals scope for a stronger recovery towards 0.6733, 76.4% of the downleg in May.
• The bear cycle in Gold remains intact. The yellow metal traded lower Wednesday and once again pierced trendline support drawn from Nov 3 2022. The trendline intersects at $1955.7. WTI futures continue to trade below key short-term resistance at $75.06, the Jun 5 high. The pullback from this level reinforces a bearish theme. A continuation lower would signal scope for weakness towards $67.03, the May 31 low and key support at $63.90, the May 4 low.
• Bund futures maintain a softer tone following the sharp move lower on Wednesday. This reinforced a bearish theme following the reversal from 135.85, the Jun 1 high. Support at 133.45 has been cleared, the May 30 low, and the focus is on 133.00, a Fibonacci retracement. Gilt futures have pulled back from recent highs. Recent gains from 94.21, May 26 low, allowed an oversold condition to unwind. The move higher is considered corrective and the trend direction remains down. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 1.1007 High May 10
• RES 3: 1.0905 High May 16
• RES 2: 1.0817 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.0787 High Jun 08
• PRICE: 1.0776 @ 05:46 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 1.0667/35 Low Jun 6 / Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0608 Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: 1.0551 Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 1.0516 Low Mar 15 and a key support

EURUSD traded higher Thursday and pierced initial resistance at 1.0779, the Jun 2 high. A clear breach of this level would improve S/T conditions for bulls and highlight a potential bottoming of the bear trend - allowing for a stronger correction. This would expose resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.0817. A clear break of this EMA would also strengthen a bullish case. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.0635, the May 31 and bear trigger.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trades Through Resistance

• RES 4: 1.2680 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2641 High May 11
• RES 2: 1.2592 76.4% retracement of the May 10 - 25 bear cycle
• RES 1: 1.2564 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2548 @ 06:04 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 1.2453 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2369/2308 Low Jun 5 / Low May 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
• SUP 4: 1.2242 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - May 10 bull run

GBPUSD bounced sharply Thursday. Resistance at 1.2545, the Jun 2 high, has been cleared, signalling scope for a continuation higher near-term. The break exposes resistance at 1.2592, a Fibonacci retracement. If this level is breached, attention would turn to key resistance at 1.2680, the May 10 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm support has been defined at 1.2369, the Jun 5 low. A breach would be bearish.

EURGBP TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 0.8814 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 2: 0.8712 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8636/52 High Jun 5 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8589 @ 06:08 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 0.8567 Low Jun 1
• SUP 2: 0.8562 Low Dec 13 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8547 Low Dec 1 2022 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8522 Low Aug 30 2022

EURGBP continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The primary trend direction remains down, highlighted by a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, moving average studies also highlight a bearish condition - the 50-dma recently crossed below the 200-dma, confirming a death cross signal. The focus is on 0.8547, the Dec 1 2022 low and a key support. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8652, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Support At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 142.51 61.8% of the Oct 16 2022 - Jan 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 142.25 High Nov 21 2022
• RES 2: 141.61 High Nov 23 2022
• RES 1: 140.45/141.21 High Jun 5 / Bull channel top from Jan 16 low
• PRICE: 139.35 @ 06:37 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 138.64/45 20-day EMA / Low Jun 1
• SUP 2: 137.43 Low May 19
• SUP 3: 136.79 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17

The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged and remains bullish. The pair is trading just ahead of key resistance at the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low. The line intersects at 141.21. A clear break of this level would reinforce a bullish theme and open 141.61, the Nov 23 2022 high. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would highlight a potential top plus signal scope for a deeper pullback. Key support to watch is 138.64, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Continues To Climb

• RES 4: 152.81 1.50 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 150.30/151.07 Intraday high / High May 29
• PRICE: 150.22 @ 07:01 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 148.59 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 147.94/146.80 50-day EMA / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 146.13 Low May 11 and a key support
• SUP 4: 145.67 High Mar 31

EURJPY is trading higher, reinforcing a short-term bullish theme. The cross has traded above initial resistance at 150.20, the Jun 5 high. A continuation higher would open 151.07, the May 29 high. Key resistance is at 151.61, the May 2 high and also represents an important bull trigger. Key short-term support is at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 147.94, a break would highlight a possible reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 0.6818 High May 10 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6789 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.6733 76.4% retracement of the May 10 - 31 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6720 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6713 @ 08:06 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 0.6623 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6567/6458 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6387 Low Nov 10 2022

The AUDUSD bull cycle that started on May 31 remains in play and the pair is trading at its recent highs. Resistance at the 50-day EMA has been cleared. The break signals scope for a stronger recovery towards 0.6733, 76.4% of the downleg in May. On the downside, a reversal lower is required to refocus attention on 0.6458, the May 31 low. Initial support is seen at 0.6623, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Key Support Zone Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3730 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - Apr 14 low
• RES 3: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 2: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3479/85 20-day EMA / High Jun 1
• PRICE: 1.3344 @ 08:11 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 1.3322 Low Jun 07
• SUP 2: 1.3315 Low May 8
• SUP 3: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 1.3214 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD maintains a softer tone and is trading closer to this week’s low. A resumption of weakness would expose 1.3315 and 1.3302, the May 8 and Apr 14 lows and a key support zone. Clearance of these levels would strengthen bearish conditions. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 1.3479, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level is required to ease bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Maintains A Softer Tone

• RES 4: 136.97 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 136.50 High May 11
• RES 2: 135.85 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 134.13/134.95 20-day EMA / High Jun 6
• PRICE: 133.78 @ 05:11 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 133.00/132.97 76.4% of the May 26 - Jun 1 rally / Low Jun 8
• SUP 2: 132.33 Low May 29
• SUP 3: 132.12 Low May 26 and key support
• SUP 4: 132.00 Round number support

Bund futures maintain a softer tone following the sharp move lower on Wednesday. This reinforced a bearish theme following the reversal from 135.85, the Jun 1 high. Support at 133.45 has been cleared, the May 30 low, and the focus is on 133.00, a Fibonacci retracement. 133.00 has been tested, a clear break would expose key support at 132.12, the May 26 low. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 134.13, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 118.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 117.700 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 117.200 High Jun 6
• RES 1: 116.670/117.010 50.0% of the Jun 7 range / High Jun 7
• PRICE: 116.560 @ 05:01 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 116.250 Low Jun 8
• SUP 2: 116.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 115.970 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 115.870 Low May 26 and key support

Bobl futures maintain a softer tone and Wednesday’s sharp move lower reinforced bearish conditions. The contract has breached support at 116.400, the May 30 low and pierced 116.302, 76.4% of the May 26 - Jun 1 rally. A clear break of 116.302 would expose key support at 115.870, the May 26 low. On the upside, a key near-term resistance is seen at 117.200, the Jun 6 high, where a break is required to ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Key Support Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 105.975 High May 17
• RES 3: 105.875 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 105.815 High Jun 4
• RES 1: 105.655 High Jun 6 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 105.420 @ 05:38 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 105.335 Low Jun 6
• SUP 2: 105.330 Low May 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 105.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 104.960 Low Low Mar 13 (cont)

Schatz futures remain below 105.875, the Jun 1 high, and the contract traded lower Wednesday to reinforce current short-term bearish conditions. The break low exposes key short-term support at 105.330, the May 26 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started in March and open the 105.00 handle. Key short-term resistance is seen at 105.655, the Jun 6 high.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Remains Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: 98.80 High May 22
• RES 3: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 97.64 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 97.06 High Jun 6
• PRICE: 96.00 @ Close Jun 8
• SUP 1: 95.55 Low Jun 8
• SUP 2: 95.52 61.8% of the May 26 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 3: 94.91/21 Low May 30
• SUP 4: 94.21 Low May 26 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures have pulled back from recent highs. Recent gains from 94.21, May 26 low, allowed an oversold condition to unwind. The move higher is considered corrective and the trend direction remains down. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a bear cycle. A continuation lower would open the 94.00 handle next. The bear trigger is 94.21, the May 26 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 97.64, the Jun 1 high.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 116.36 High Jun 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 115.18/116.06 High Jun 8 / 6
• PRICE: 114.90 @ Close Jun 8
• SUP 1: 113.83 Low Jun 8
• SUP 2: 113.53 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 2 rally
• SUP 3: 112.86 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 2 rally
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

BTP futures traded lower Wednesday but did find support on Thursday. The contract has recently pulled back from 116.36, the Jun 2 high. This highlights a developing short-term bearish threat and if correct, suggests potential for a deeper pullback near-term. The next firm support lies at 113.53, the 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 2 rally. Key resistance has been defined at 116.36, a break would reinstate a bullish theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4457.50 0.5 proj of the Mar 20 - Apr 21 - May 4 price swing
• RES 3: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 1: 4362.00 High May 29
• PRICE: 4308.00 @ 06:13 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 4216.00 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures are consolidating and price remains above 4216.00, the May 31 low and a key support. For now, the recent move higher appears to be a correction. The recent breach of support at 4252.00, the May 25 low, highlights a potential bearish threat. The contract has also pierced support at 4233.00, the May 4 low and a key short-term level. Resistance to watch is 4362.00, May 29 high. Clearance of this level would be bullish.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4393.25 High Apr 22 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4327.50 High Aug 16 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4305.75 High Jun 5
• PRICE: 4294.50 @ 06:57 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 4217.92 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4165.06 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4146.00 Low May 26
• SUP 4: 4114.00 Low May 24 and a key support

S&P E-minis continue to trade inside the recent range. The trend outlook remains bullish and the recent break of resistance at 4244.00, the Feb 2 high, reinforces current conditions. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started in October 2022. The focus is on 4327.50 next, the Aug 16 2022 high (cont). The 50-day EMA, at 4165.06 remains a key support. A break is required to signal a reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q3) Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: $84.56 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.47 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $80.08 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $78.73 - High Jun 5 and a short-term bull trigger
• PRICE: $75.31 @ 07:06 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: $73.58 - Low Jun 8
• SUP 2: $71.50/71.20 - Low May 31 / 4
• SUP 3: $70.06 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures continue to trade below Monday’s high of $78.73, a key short-term resistance. The outlook remains bearish and a continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards key support at $71.20, the May 4 low, ahead of $70.06, the Mar 20 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode position and this highlights a downtrend. On the upside, clearance of $78.73 would alter the picture.

WTI TECHS: (N3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $80.93 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.00 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.74 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $75.06 - High Jun 5 and a key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $70.66 @ 07:12 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: $69.03 - Low Jun 8
• SUP 2: $67.03/63.90 - Low May 31 / 4 and key support
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures continue to trade below key short-term resistance at $75.06, the Jun 5 high. The pullback from this level reinforces a bearish theme. A continuation lower would signal scope for weakness towards $67.03, the May 31 low and key support at $63.90, the May 4 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode position highlighting a downtrend. On the upside, a break of resistance at $75.06 is required to highlight a potential bullish theme.

GOLD TECHS:Trendline Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $2063.0 - High May 4
• RES 2: $2022.6 - High May 12
• RES 1: $1985.3 - High May 24 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $1964.8 @ 07:25 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: $1932.2/18.3 - Low May 31 / Low Mar 17
• SUP 2: $1903.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle

The bear cycle in Gold remains intact. The yellow metal traded lower Wednesday and once again pierced trendline support drawn from Nov 3 2022. The trendline intersects at $1955.7. A clear breach of this line would reinforce bearish conditions and open $1903.5, 61.8% of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle. Initial firm resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Clearance of this level would signal a short-term reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Recovery Extends

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.477/26.135 - High May 11 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $24.492 - Low Apr 25 and double midpoint
• PRICE: $24.408 @ 08:18 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: $23.250/22.682 - Low June 5 / Low May 26 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $22.157 - Low Mar 21
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

Silver traded higher yesterday and is firmer again today. The metal is approaching resistance at $24.492, the Apr 25 low and midpoint of a double top confirmed on May 11. A break of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery towards $25.477, the May 11 high. Key support has been defined at $22.682, the May 26 low and bear trigger. A break would reinstate a bearish theme.