MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WTI Gains Deemed Corrective For Now

Price Signal Summary – WTI Gains Deemed Corrective For Now

• S&P E-Minis are unchanged and the contract is holding on to the bulk of recent gains. Last week’s bullish extension confirmed a break above the 50-day EMA. This reinforces current bullish conditions and suggests scope for a climb towards 4145.75 next, the Jun 9 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a bullish tone but price remains in consolidation mode for now. This pause in the bull cycle appears to be a bull flag. If correct, it reinforces current bullish conditions and suggests scope for a stronger recovery near-term towards 3689.00, the Jun 10 high.
• EURUSD is consolidating. The pair remains in a S/T bull cycle following the recent recovery from the base of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The current consolidation appears to be a bull flag and this pattern reinforces bullish conditions. USDJPY is trading near its recent lows and at the 20-day EMA that intersects at 136.68. The recent move lower is still considered corrective and attention is on two key support levels. 135.10 marks the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 4 low and 134.27, is the Jun 23 low. AUDUSD is holding on to its recent gains. The pair has pierced the 50-day EMA. This improves the near-term outlook and a continuation higher would open the Jun 16 high at 0.7069, and potentially 0.7141 further out, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg.
• Gold remains above last Thursday’s low of $1681.0, and is holding on to its recent gains. Short-term gains are considered corrective, however, any break above resistance at $1745.4, the Jul 13 high, would strengthen a bullish set-up and suggest scope for a stronger bounce. WTI futures trend conditions remain bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. The contract continues to trade below the 50-day EMA, at $101.43. Clearance of this average is required to strengthen bullish conditions and signal a stronger reversal.
• Bund futures remain in a clear uptrend and last Thursday’s rally confirmed a resumption of the trend. The contract is also trading at its recent highs. The break higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and price remains above both the 50- and 20-day EMAs. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend - Friday’s push higher resulted in a break of 117.09, the Jul 6 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Flag

• RES 4: 1.0450Bull channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 3: 1.0405 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0359 Low Jun 15
• RES 1: 1.0241/78 20-day EMA / High Jul 21
• PRICE: 1.0215 @ 16:32 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 1.0120 Low Jul 19
• SUP 2: 1.0064/0.9952 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD is consolidating. The pair remains in a S/T bull cycle following the recent recovery from the base of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The current consolidation appears to be a bull flag and this pattern reinforces bullish conditions. Attention is on the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of it would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension within the channel - the top intersects at 1.0459. Initial support is at 1.0120, Jul 19 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Correction Extends

• RES 4: 1.2220 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2213 High Jun 29
• RES 2: 1.2125 High Jul 5
• RES 1: 1.2090 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2063 @ 06:20 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 1.1890/1760 Low Jul 21 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1640 Low Mar 25 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1503 Low Mar 24 2020

GBPUSD continues to push higher. The latest recovery is considered corrective. The move higher however signals scope for a stronger short-term correction and this has potentially opened the 50-day EMA at 1.2220 - a key resistance point. The primary trend direction is down. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 1.1673 next, a Fibonacci projection. The key support to watch is at 1.1760, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger.

EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 3: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Jun 15 / bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8627/79 High Jul 4 / High Jul 1
• RES 1: 0.8585 High Jul 21
• PRICE: 0.8476 @ 06:25 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 0.8458 Low Jul 18
• SUP 2: 0.8403/8393 Low Jul 12 / Low May 17 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8367 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 0.8313 Low Apr 22

Recent gains in EURGBP are still considered corrective. Last week’s high of 0.8585 (Jul 21) has been defined as a key short-term resistance where a break would signal scope for a stronger recovery. While this resistance holds, the outlook is bearish and the focus is on support at 0.8393, the May 17 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish case and clear the way for a deeper sell-off.

USDJPY TECHS: Watching Channel Support

• RES 4: 141.47 1.382 proj of the Jun 16 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 140.71 1.236 proj of the Jun 16 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 2: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 137.96/39.39 High Jul 22 / 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 136.53 @ 06:39 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 135.57 Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 135.10 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 4 low
• SUP 3: 134.27 Low Jun 23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 132.17 Low Jun 17

USDJPY is trading near its recent lows and at the 20-day EMA that intersects at 136.68. The recent move lower is still considered corrective and attention is on two key support levels. 135.10 marks the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 4 low and 134.27, is the Jun 23 low. A break of this support zone would signal scope for stronger reversal. The primary uptrend remains intact, 139.39 is the bull trigger.

EURJPY TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 144.28 High Jun 28 and key resistance
• RES 3: 143.85 High Jun 29
• RES 2: 142.37 High Jul 5 and 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 140.69 High Jul 22
• PRICE: 139.60 @ 06:48 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 138.72 Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: 137.99/36.87 Low Jul 14 / Low Jul 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 136.25 Low May 30
• SUP 4: 135.40 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 28 climb

EURJPY found firm resistance last week at 142.32, on Jul 21. The pullback signals the end of a corrective recovery between Jul 8 - 21. A resumption of weakness would expose 136.87, the Jul 8 low and a bear trigger. A break would strengthen bearish conditions. For bulls, a move above 142.32 would instead suggest scope for a climb towards key resistance at 144.28, the Jun 28 high and a bull trigger.

AUDUSD TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 0.7141 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 2: 0.7069 High Jun 16
• RES 1: 0.6983 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6960 @ 06:52 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 0.6859 Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 0.6786/6682 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6588 Low May 28 2020

AUDUSD is holding on to its recent gains. The pair has pierced the 50-day EMA. This improves the near-term outlook and a continuation higher would open the Jun 16 high at 0.7069, and potentially 0.7141 further out, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg. Any reversal lower would instead refocus attention on the 0.6682 bear trigger, Jul 14 low, where a break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3224 High Jul 14
• RES 3: 1.3210 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3038 High Jul 18
• RES 1: 1.3172 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• PRICE: 1.2830 @ 08:06 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 1.2819 Low Jun 28 and key support
• SUP 2: 1.2763 Low Jun 13
• SUP 3: 1.2692 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2685 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 upleg

USDCAD remains vulnerable and is trading at its recent lows. 1.2819, the Jun 28 low and the next key support, remains exposed. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and confirm a clear break of both the 20- and 50-day EMA values. This would open 1.2763, the Jun 13 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is unchanged at 1.3038. A break of this level would ease the current bearish threat.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 157.21 1.50 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 156.23 1.382 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 155.87 High May 12
• RES 1: 155.16/27 High Jul 22 / May 26
• PRICE: 154.79 @ 04:58 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 151.42 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 149.69 Low Jul 21 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 148.24 Low Jul 1
• SUP 4: 144.72 Low Jun 28 and a key support

Bund futures remain in a clear uptrend and last Thursday’s rally confirmed a resumption of the trend. The contract is also trading at its recent highs. The break higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and price remains above both the 50- and 20-day EMAs. The focus is on 155.27, May 26 high. Key trend support has been defined at 149.69, the Jul 21 low. A break of this level would signal a potential top.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 127.940 1.50 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 127.160 High May 12
• RES 2: 126.879 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 126.860 High Jul 22
• PRICE: 126.630 @ 05:04 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 125.193 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 124.030 Low Jul 21 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 123.010 Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 121.910 Low Jun 28 and a support

Bobl futures outlook remains bullish and the contract has defined a key short-term support at 124.030, the Jul 21 low. Friday’s gains resulted in a high print above 126.560, the Jul 6 high and a bull trigger. This signals a resumption of the current uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 127.160, the May 12 high. A break of 124.030 is required to signal a reversal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Bull Trigger Still Exposed

• RES 4: 110.412 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 110.256 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 110.063 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 110.005 High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 109.835 @ 05:07 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 109.432 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 108.950 Low Jul 21
• SUP 3: 108.760/425 Low Jun 30 / Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 108.025 Low Jun 21

Schatz futures found support last week at 108.95, on Jul 21. This level has been defined as a key short-term trend support. The current uptrend remains intact and attention is on resistance and the bull trigger at 110.005, Jul 6 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle and open 110.063 and 110.256, Fibonacci projections. Note that price is also trading above the 50- and 20-day EMAs, reinforcing current bullish conditions.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Heading North

• RES 4: 118.71 1.50 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 3: 118.63 High May 24
• RES 2: 118.16 1.382 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 1: 117.67 High Jul 22
• PRICE: 117.28 @ Close Jul 25
• SUP 1: 115.44 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 114.08/113.03 Low Jul 8 / Low Jun 30
• SUP 3: 111.72 Low Jun 29 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 110.57 Low Jun 21

The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend - Friday’s push higher resulted in a break of 117.09, the Jul 6 high. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and paves the way for a climb towards 118.16 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 114.08, the Jul 8 low.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Bull Trigger Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.00 High May 12
• RES 2: 127.79 High May 26
• RES 1: 124.79/126.41 High Jul 20 / High Jul 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 123.54 @ Close Jul 22
• SUP 1: 119.57 Low Jul 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 3: 115.72 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 113.78 Contract Low

BTP futures found support last week at 119.57, the Jul 22 low. The recent pullback is considered corrective and short-term bullish conditions remain intact. 119.57 has been defined as a key short-term support and if breached, would highlight a stronger reversal. An extension higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 126.41, the Jul high and bull trigger. A break would resume the uptrend.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Bull Flag Formation

• RES 4: 3722.70 76.4% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg
• RES 3: 3689.00 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 3650.10 61.8% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg
• RES 1: 3620.00 High Jul 22
• PRICE: 3574.00 @ 05:38 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 3467.00 Low Jul 18 / 19
• SUP 2: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3321.30 50.0% of the major 2020 - 2021 upleg (cont)
• SUP 4: 3300.00 Round number support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a bullish tone but price remains in consolidation mode for now. This pause in the bull cycle appears to be a bull flag. If correct, it reinforces current bullish conditions and suggests scope for a stronger recovery near-term towards 3689.00, the Jun 10 high. The key support and bear trigger is unchanged at 3343.00, Jul 5 low. Initial support is at 3467.00, the Jul 18 / 19 low.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 4306.50 High May 4
• RES 3: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4145.75 High Jun 9
• RES 1: 4016.25 High Jul 22
• PRICE: 3957.50 @ 06:45 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: 3898.26 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3723.75/3639.00 Low Jul 14 / Low Jun 17 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 3500.00 Round number support

S&P E-Minis are unchanged and the contract is holding on to the bulk of recent gains. Last week’s bullish extension confirmed a break above the 50-day EMA. This reinforces current bullish conditions and suggests scope for a climb towards 4145.75 next, the Jun 9 high. The next key resistance is at 4204.75, the May 31 high. On the downside, the 20-day EMA, at 3898.26, is the first support to watch. Major support lies at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U2) Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $118.12 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $116.24 - High Jun 29 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $114.75 - High Jul 5
• RES 1: $107.13/61 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 19
• PRICE: $106.70 @ 06:55 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: $98.17/94.50 - Low Jul 15 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $90.33 - Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: $89.60 - Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: $86.74 - Low Feb 25

Brent futures trend conditions remain bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. Resistance has been defined at $107.61, the Jul 19 high. Price is trading below the 50-day EMA, at $107.31 - for now. A clear break of this EMA, would alter the picture and instead suggest scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards $94.50, the Jul 14 low and a bear trigger.

WTI TECHS: (U2) Remains Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $113.87 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $111.14 - High Jun 29 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: $101.43/108.28- 50-day EMA / High Jul 5
• RES 1: $99.31 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $98.09 @ 07:03 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: $93.01/88.23 - Low Jul 25 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $85.37 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $83.51 - 1.50 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 4: $81.34 - 1.618 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing

WTI futures trend conditions remain bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. The contract continues to trade below the 50-day EMA, at $101.43. Clearance of this average is required to strengthen bullish conditions and signal a stronger reversal. A resumption of weakness would open $88.23, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger. A breach of this level, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open $85.37, Mar 15 low.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Bounce Still In Play

• RES 4: $1822.0 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 3: $1795.5 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $1787.0 - Low May 16, recent breakout level
• RES 1: $1745.4 - High Jul 13
• PRICE: $1723.1 @ 07:17 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: $1681.0 - Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: $1680.5 - 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021
• SUP 4: $1638.0 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Gold remains above last Thursday’s low of $1681.0, and is holding on to its recent gains. Short-term gains are considered corrective, however, any break above resistance at $1745.4, the Jul 13 high, would strengthen a bullish set-up and suggest scope for a stronger bounce. Moving average studies continue to highlight a bear trend. A break of $1681.0 would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Signals Still Point South

• RES 4: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 3: $20.516 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $20.464 - Low May 13 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: $19.307 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $18.526 @ 07:24 BST Jul 26
• SUP 1: $18.146/18.000 - Low Jul 14 / Round number support
• SUP 2: $17.312 - 3.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 4: $16.735 - Low May 22 2020

Silver remains in consolidation mode. The outlook is bearish and recent weakness confirmed a continuation of the current bear cycle that started Jun 6 and marks an extension of the broader downtrend that has been in place since early February 2021. MA studies remain in a bear mode condition, highlighting current sentiment. Sights are on $17.312 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 20-day EMA, at $19.307 is a key short-term resistance.