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MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WTI Outlook Remains Bearish

Price Signal Summary – WTI Outlook Remains Bearish

  • S&P E-minis rallied late last week to erase the sell-off earlier in the week and cancel a bearish threat. The contract traded higher Monday, piercing resistance at 4198.25, the Apr 18 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 13 and open 4244.00, the Feb 2 high. A key short-term support in Eurostoxx 50 futures at 4288.90 has been pierced - the 20-day EMA. The recent move lower is considered corrective - for now - and a clear break of the average is required to highlight scope for a deeper correction.
  • USDCAD failed to hold on to last Friday’s high of 1.3668. The strong reversal exposes support at 1.3538, the 20-day EMA - it has been pierced. This EMA represents an important short-term level where a break would highlight a stronger bearish threat. EURJPY traded sharply higher last Friday confirming a resumption of the current uptrend. The cross is again pushing higher this week, reinforcing bullish conditions. 151.00 has been cleared and this paves the way for a climb towards 152.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and last Friday’s gains reinforce this theme. The pair traded higher to breach resistance at 1.2546, the Apr 14 high and bull trigger.
  • Gold remains in consolidation mode. The broader trend theme remains bullish, however, the yellow metal has recently entered a short-term corrective cycle. Price has pierced support at $1987.8, the 20-day EMA, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement. The outlook in WTI futures remains bearish and last Wednesday's strong sell-off reinforces the current theme. $73.98 was pierced late last week, the 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 12 rally.
  • Bund futures recovered Friday, reinforcing a short-term bullish condition. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 135.85, a Fibonacci retracement and the 136.00 handle. Gilt futures traded higher in the early part of last week. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the 20-day EMA at 102.03. This average represents a key short-term resistance where a break is required to highlight potential for a stronger rally.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

  • RES 4: 1.1225 1.236 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
  • RES 3: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
  • RES 2: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
  • RES 1: 1.1095 High Apr 26
  • PRICE: 1.0981 @ 05:32 BST May 2
  • SUP 1: 1.0957 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 1.0909 Low Apr 17
  • SUP 3: 1.0853/31 50-day EMA / Low Apr 10
  • SUP 4: 1.0788 Low Apr 3

EURUSD remains in an uptrend and last week’s fresh cycle high reinforces a bullish theme. Short-term weakness is considered corrective. A resumption of gains would open 1.1127, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition highlighting a rising trend. On the downside, key short-term support is unchanged at the 20-day EMA. It intersects at 1.0957.

GBPUSD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

  • RES 4: 1.2716 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 3: 1.2667 High May 27 2022
  • RES 2: 1.2599 High Jun 7 2022
  • RES 1: 1.2584 High Apr 28 and May 1
  • PRICE: 1.2498 @ 05:45 BST May 2
  • SUP 1: 1.2435 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10
  • SUP 3: 1.2323 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 1.2275 Low Apr 3

The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and last Friday’s gains reinforce this theme. The pair traded higher to breach resistance at 1.2546, the Apr 14 high and bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.2599, the Jun 7 2022 high. Support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.2435. A clear break of it is required to suggest scope for a deeper correction.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Threat

  • RES 4: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
  • RES 3: 0.8880 61.8 retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
  • RES 2: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and key short-term resistance
  • RES 1: 0.8812 20- and 50-day EMA
  • PRICE: 0.8788 @ 06:02 BST May 2
  • SUP 1: 0.8760 Low May 1
  • SUP 2: 0.8729 Low Apr 4
  • SUP 3: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
  • SUP 4: 0.8691 Low Dec 19

EURGBP traded sharply lower last Friday and in the process, cleared support at 0.8792, the Apr 19 low. The sell-off undermines a recent bullish theme and instead highlights a developing bearish threat. A continuation lower would pave the way for a test of support at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low and a key level. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8875, the Apr 25 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance

  • RES 4: 139.89 High Nov 30 2022
  • RES 3: 139.59 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Jan bear cycle
  • RES 2: 138.17 High Dec 15
  • RES 1: 137.91 High Mar 8 and key resistance
  • PRICE: 137.68 @ 06:31 BST May 2
  • SUP 1: 136.14 Low May 1
  • SUP 2: 135.13 High Apr 19 and a recent breakout level
  • SUP 3: 133.02 Low Apr 26 and a key near-term support
  • SUP 4: 132.02 Low Apr 13

USDJPY rallied sharply higher last Friday and yesterday’s gains highlight a bullish start to the week. Friday’s rally resulted in a break of 135.13, the Apr 19 high, to confirm a resumption of the trend that started Mar 24. The pair has cleared a number of key short-term resistance points and this paves the way for a test of 137.91, the Mar 8 high and a key resistance. Initial support is seen at 136.14, Monday’s low.

EURJPY TECHS: Impulsive Rally Extends

  • RES 4: 153.62 1.618 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
  • RES 3: 152.81 1.50 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
  • RES 2: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
  • RES 1: 151.42 Intraday high
  • PRICE: 151.34 @ 06:46 BST May 2
  • SUP 1: 150.03 Low May 1
  • SUP 2: 148.62 High Apr 25 and a recent breakout level
  • SUP 3: 147.02 20-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 146.29 Low Apr 25 and a key short-term support

EURJPY traded sharply higher last Friday confirming a resumption of the current uptrend. The cross is again pushing higher this week, reinforcing bullish conditions. 151.00 has been cleared and this paves the way for a climb towards 152.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 146.29, the Apr 25 low, where a break is required to signal a short-term reversal. Initial firm support lies at 148.62, the Apr 25 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching The 50-Day EMA

  • RES 4: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
  • RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
  • RES 2: 0.6772/0.6806 High Apr 20 / Apr 14 and key resistance
  • RES 1: 0.6711 50-day EMA
  • PRICE: 0.6695 @ 05:53 BST May 2
  • SUP 1: 0.6621/6565 Intraday low / Low Mar 10 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 0.6547 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
  • SUP 3: 0.6500 Round number support
  • SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

AUDUSD is trading higher following the RBA rate announcement. Price has traded above the 20-day EMA and attention turns to resistance at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 0.6711. A clear breach of this average is required to suggest scope for a stronger bounce. This would open 0.6772, the Apr 20 high. On the downside, key support to watch lies at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend that started on Feb 2.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Threat

  • RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
  • RES 3: 1.3791 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 2: 1.3695 High Mar 28
  • RES 1: 1.3668 High Apr 28
  • PRICE: 1.3540 @ 07:56 BST May 2
  • SUP 1: 1.3528 Intraday low
  • SUP 2: 1.3473 Low Apr 21
  • SUP 3: 1.3385/3302 Low Apr 19 / 14 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 1.3275 Low Feb 14

USDCAD failed to hold on to last Friday’s high of 1.3668. The strong reversal exposes support at 1.3538, the 20-day EMA - it has been pierced. This EMA represents an important short-term level where a break would highlight a stronger bearish threat, signalling scope for a deeper pullback towards 1.3473, the Apr 21 low. On the upside, a recovery and break of 1.3668 is required to cancel a bearish threat and reinstate the recent bull cycle.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Bullish Outlook

  • RES 4: 136.70 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
  • RES 3: 136.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 2: 135.85 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
  • RES 1: 135.74 High Apr 26
  • PRICE: 134.73 @ 05:12 BST May 2
  • SUP 1: 133.64/133.10 Low Apr 28 / 19 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 132.70 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
  • SUP 3: 132.37 Low Mar 10
  • SUP 4: 132.00 Round number support

Bund futures recovered Friday, reinforcing a short-term bullish condition. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 135.85, a Fibonacci retracement and the 136.00 handle. On the downside, key short-term support lies at the Apr 19 low of 133.10. This is the bear trigger and a break would instead reinstate the recent bearish theme for a move towards 132.70, a Fibonacci retracement.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

  • RES 4: 119.009 61.8 retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 downleg
  • RES 3: 118.515 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 downleg
  • RES 2: 118.280 High Apr 12
  • RES 1: 118.040 High Apr 28
  • PRICE: 117.590 @ 05:24 BST May 2
  • SUP 1: 116.890/420 Low Apr 28 / 19 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 116.370 Low Mar 15
  • SUP 3: 116.125 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
  • SUP 4: 115.700 Low Mar 10

A strong recovery in Bobl futures on Friday reinforces a bullish theme - prices pierced the high earlier in the week at 118.030 (Apr 26). A continuation higher would open 118.280, the Apr 12 high. Clearance of this level would expose 118.515, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support has been defined at 116.420, the Apr 19 low, where a break would instead reinstate the recent bearish theme.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Short-Term Trend Needle Points North

  • RES 4: 106.060 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
  • RES 3: 106.000 Round number resistance
  • RES 2: 105.849 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
  • RES 1: 105.720 High Apr 26
  • PRICE: 105.560 @ 05:43 BST May 2
  • SUP 1: 105.350 Low Apr 28
  • SUP 2: 105.165 Low Apr 19 / 24 and bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 105.030 Low Mar 15
  • SUP 4: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally

A recovery in Schatz futures last week saw price trade above the 20-day EMA which intersects at 105.538 today. A continuation higher would allow for a recovery towards 105.849, a Fibonacci retracement point and potentially highlight a stronger reversal set-up. On the downside, key support has been defined at 105.165, the Apr 24 / 19 low. This level is the bear trigger where a break would resume the recent downtrend.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Remains Below Resistance At The 20-Day EMA

  • RES 4: 102.99 High Apr 14
  • RES 3: 102.63 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
  • RES 2: 102.12 High Apr 26
  • RES 1: 101.63/102.03 High Apr 28 / 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 101.46 @ Close Apr 28
  • SUP 1: 100.53/99.73 Low Apr 28 / Low Apr 19
  • SUP 2: 99.55 Low Mar 8
  • SUP 3: 99.20 Low Feb 28 and key support
  • SUP 4: 99.00 Round number support

Gilt futures traded higher in the early part of last week. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the 20-day EMA at 102.03. This average represents a key short-term resistance where a break is required to highlight potential for a stronger rally. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 99.73. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend that started Mar 20.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Clears Resistance At The 20-Day EMA

  • RES 4: 118.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 3: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: 115.92/116.97 High Apr 12 / 6
  • RES 1: 115.09 High Apr 28
  • PRICE: 114.85 @ Close Apr 28
  • SUP 1: 112.93/89 Low Apr 24 / 61.8% of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
  • SUP 2: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
  • SUP 3: 111.05 Low Mar 8
  • SUP 4: 110.25 Low Mar 2 and a key support

BTP futures traded higher Friday to end last week on a bullish note. The contract has breached resistance at 114.24, the 20-day EMA. The clear break signals scope for a stronger corrective bounce and opens 115.92, the Apr 12 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 112.93, the Apr 24 low. Clearance of this level would instead confirm a resumption of the recent downtrend.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Corrective Pullback

  • RES 4: 4520.00 High June 2001 (cont)
  • RES 3: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
  • RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
  • RES 1: 4363.00 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 4329.00 @ 06:02 BST May 2
  • SUP 1: 4269.00 Low Apr 28
  • SUP 2: 4214.90 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
  • SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

A key short-term support in Eurostoxx 50 futures at 4288.90 has been pierced - the 20-day EMA. The recent move lower is considered corrective - for now - and a clear break of the average is required to highlight scope for a deeper correction. This would open 4214.90, the 50-day EMA. On the upside, a break of 4363.00, the Apr 21 high and bull trigger, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Pierces Resistance

  • RES 4: 4288.00 High Aug 19 2022
  • RES 3: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a medium-term bull trigger
  • RES 2: 4223.00 High Feb 14
  • RES 1: 4206.25 High May 1
  • PRICE: 4185.25 @ 06:55 BST May 2
  • SUP 1: 4135.41/4068.75 20-day EMA / Low Apr 26
  • SUP 2: 4061.11 38.2% retracement of the Mar 13 - Apr 18 bull leg
  • SUP 3: 4052.50 Low Mar 30
  • SUP 4: 4018.75 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - Apr 18 bull leg

S&P E-minis rallied late last week to erase the sell-off earlier in the week and cancel a bearish threat. The contract traded higher Monday, piercing resistance at 4198.25, the Apr 18 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 13 and open 4244.00, the Feb 2 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 4068.75, the Apr 26 low. A break would be bearish.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N3) Bearish Theme Remains Intact

  • RES 4: $89.62 - High Nov 15 2022
  • RES 3: $87.86 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
  • RES 2: $86.90 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: $82.88/84.83 - High Apr 25 / 19
  • PRICE: $79.07 @ 07:00 BST May 2
  • SUP 1: $76.52 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 12 bull run
  • SUP 2: $75.00 - Round number support
  • SUP 3: $74.31 - Low Mar 27
  • SUP 4: $72.34 - Low Mar 24

Brent futures remain vulnerable and last Wednesday's sharp sell-off reinforced the current bearish theme. The break lower signals scope for an extension towards $76.52, a Fibonacci retracement point and the $75.00 handle. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $82.88, the Apr 25 high where a break is required to ease bearish pressure and this would also highlight a potential reversal.

WTI TECHS: (M3) Bear Threat Still Present

  • RES 4: $85.54 - High Nov 8 2022
  • RES 3: $83.38 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: $81.24 - High Apr 19
  • RES 1: $79-18 - High Apr 24 and a key short-term resistance
  • PRICE: $75.46 @ 07:08 BST May 2
  • SUP 1: $73.93 - Low Apr 28
  • SUP 2: $72.76 - Low Mar 30
  • SUP 3: $71.76 - $61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 12 rally
  • SUP 4: $70.00 - Round number support

The outlook in WTI futures remains bearish and last Wednesday's strong sell-off reinforces the current theme. $73.98 was pierced late last week, the 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 12 rally. A clear break of this level would open $72.76, the Mar 30 low. A key short-term resistance has been defined at $79.18, the Apr 24 high where a breach is required to ease bearish pressure. This would also highlight a potential reversal.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

  • RES 4: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
  • RES 3: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
  • RES 2: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
  • RES 1: $2015.1/2048.7 - High Apr 17 / High Apr 13 and bull trigger
  • PRICE: $1983.9 @ 07:14 BST May 2
  • SUP 1: $1969.3 - Low Apr 19
  • SUP 2: $1952.6 - 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: $1934.3 - Low Mar 22
  • SUP 4: $1900.0 - Round number support

Gold remains in consolidation mode. The broader trend theme remains bullish, however, the yellow metal has recently entered a short-term corrective cycle. Price has pierced support at $1987.8, the 20-day EMA, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement. A move lower would open $1952.6, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $2048.7, the Apr 5 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

SILVER TECHS: Watching Support At The 20-Day EMA

  • RES 4: $26.943 - High Mar 8 2022 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
  • RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
  • RES 1: $26.088 - High Apr 14 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: $24.915 @ 07:21 BST May 2
  • SUP 1: $24.492 - Low Apr 25
  • SUP 2: $23.798 - 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: $23.572 - Low Apr 3
  • SUP 4: $22.828 - Low Mar 28

Silver remains in an uptrend and the recent pullback appears - for now - to be a correction. The recent break, on Apr 4, of resistance at $24.637, the Feb 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull trend that started early September 2022. This opens $26.222 next, the Apr 18 2022 high. On the downside, a key support to watch is seen at $24.783, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would signal scope for a deeper (corrective) pullback.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

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