-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Global Macro Weekly -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI DATA ANALYSIS: Australia Labor Data Validates RBA Optimism
--Jobless Rate Lowest Since November 2012
--Unemployed Numbers Down Three Straight Months
By Sophia Rodrigues
SYDNEY (MNI) - The number of employed fell for the first time in five
months, but the unemployment rate fell to the lowest since November 2012 as
participation rate also dropped.
The data supports the Reserve Bank of Australia's view that the economy is
making progress towards its goal of lowering the jobless rate but given the
uncertainty around participation rate, this could change in the next few months.
Still, the August labor market data was solid despite the fall in employed
numbers.
Data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics Thursday showed the
economy lost 3,900 jobs in July, compared with MNI median forecast for a 11,000
gain. This was the first fall in five months, and only the second in 22 months.
The fall followed an upward revision in June employment to 58,200 from
50,900, and in the seven months so far this year, the economy has added jobs at
an average rate of 17,100. This outcome is in line with the RBA's expectation
that the pace of jobs growth could slow from last year's strong gain, but would
still remain solid.
In the latest month, the decline was due to fall in part-time jobs which
offset the solid 19,300 rise in full-time jobs.
The jobless rate fell to 5.3%, the lowest since November 2012 when the
unemployment rate was last seen at this level. The participation rate fell to
65.5%, a pullback to the level seen in May. The employment-to-population ratio
declined to 62.1% but this was still above May's 61.9%.
Hours worked rose 3.1 million hours to 1,748 million. The number of
unemployed fell 5,700 after a 3,300 drop in July. The number of unemployed has
fallen for three straight months with a total decline of 33,500 during this
period.
In the August Statement on Monetary Policy, the RBA said that leading
indicators suggest that employment will continue to grow faster than the working
age population but it is unclear whether the increase in labor demand will be
met by those who are currently unemployed finding jobs which would lead to a
reduction in the unemployment rate, those who are currently employed working
more hours, or an increase in the participation rate.
The RBA also said that it is possible that the forecast for above-trend GDP
growth over the next few years will result in a sharper decline in the
unemployment rate than expected, which could lead to a stronger pick-up in wages
growth than forecast.
But apart from uncertainty over how much the jobless rate would fall, the
RBA also said there is uncertainty about the level of the unemployment rate
that is consistent with stable inflation, which has to be inferred.
"International experience suggests that these estimates may decline as the
unemployment rate falls. If so, upward pressure on wages growth could be less
than expected," the RBA said.
Below are key details of the labor force data for August
August July
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(M/M, seasonally adjusted) (M/M, seasonally adjusted)
+58,200 (revised from
Employed Persons -3,900 +50,900)
+11,000 (range -22,000 to
MNI Consensus +30,000)
Full-time Employment +19,300 +43,200
Part-time Employment -23,200 +15,500
Unemployment Rate 5.3% 5.4% (no revision)
MNI Consensus 5.4% (range 5.3% to 5.4%)
Participation Rate 65.5% 65.7% (no revision)
65.7% (range from 65.6% to
MNI Consensus 65.7%)
Unemployed Persons -5,700 -3,300
Employment to
Population 62.1% 62.2%
--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MALDS$,MMLRB$,M$A$$$,M$L$$$,MT$$$$]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.