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Free AccessMNI DATA ANALYSIS: Black Friday Fuels UK Retail Surge>
-UK Nov Total Sales +1.1% m/m, +1.6% y/y
-UK Nov Non-Fuel Sales +1.2% m/m, +1.5% y/y
-UK Nov Retail Prices +3.1% y/y, Matching October Increase
By Laurie Laird and Jamie Satchithanantham
LONDON (MNI) - UK retail activity surged in November, courtesy of a
rush of Black Friday sales, leaving retail poised to exert a positive
influence on gross domestic product in the fourth quarter.
Sales volumes leapt by 1.1% between October and November, far
exceeding the median MNI median forecast of a 0.4% gain. On an annual
basis, retail sales increased by 1.6%, beating the MNI median of a 0.3%
improvement.
Transactions at household goods stores jumped by 2.9% in November,
with electrical goods boosting sales, according to a National Statistics
official. However, the official admitted to the challenge in seasonally
adjusting November sales data in light of the changing characteristics
of Black Friday, a relatively new American import.
October sales were substantially stronger than originally reported,
rising by a revised 0.5% from September and recording no change over the
same month a year earlier, wiping out the initially-reported
year-on-year loss in October, which would have represented the first
annual decline since March of 2013.
That means sales could fall by 3.0% in December and still leave
fourth quarter volumes on level pegging with the third quarter. Sales
have not declined by such a large magnitude since January of 2010.
Retail sales comprise 5.4 percent of GDP after the latest revisions to
the National Accounts, down from 5.6% previously.
The implied price deflator rose by 3.1% in the year to November,
matching the October outturn, the thirteenth straight increase, but
below the peak of 3.3% recorded in September.
However, discounting associated with Black Friday reduced inflation
in the household goods sector, with the implied deflator rising by an
annual rate of 2.6%, the smallest increase since April.
Excluding fuel, sales rose by 1.2% last month, or by 1.5% compared
with November of 2016, above the MNI median forecast of a 0.4% monthly
gain and a 0.1% annual improvement.
October non-fuel sales were also stronger than originally reported,
rising by a revised 0.4% from September and recording no change over
October of 2016. Excluding fuel, sales growth was originally reported as
up 0.1% in October, and 0.3% below the same month of 2016.
-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]
To read the full story
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Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.