MNI DATA ANALYSIS: Black Friday Fuels UK Retail Surge>

-UK Nov Total Sales +1.1% m/m, +1.6% y/y

-UK Nov Non-Fuel Sales +1.2% m/m, +1.5% y/y

-UK Nov Retail Prices +3.1% y/y, Matching October Increase

By Laurie Laird and Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - UK retail activity surged in November, courtesy of a 

rush of Black Friday sales, leaving retail poised to exert a positive 

influence on gross domestic product in the fourth quarter. 

     Sales volumes leapt by 1.1% between October and November, far 

exceeding the median MNI median forecast of a 0.4% gain. On an annual 

basis, retail sales increased by 1.6%, beating the MNI median of a 0.3% 

improvement.   

     Transactions at household goods stores jumped by 2.9% in November, 

with electrical goods boosting sales, according to a National Statistics 

official. However, the official admitted to the challenge in seasonally 

adjusting November sales data in light of the changing characteristics 

of Black Friday, a relatively new American import. 

     October sales were substantially stronger than originally reported, 

rising by a revised 0.5% from September and recording no change over the 

same month a year earlier, wiping out the initially-reported 

year-on-year loss in October, which would have represented the first 

annual decline since March of 2013. 

     That means sales could fall by 3.0% in December and still leave 

fourth quarter volumes on level pegging with the third quarter. Sales 

have not declined by such a large magnitude since January of 2010.  

Retail sales comprise 5.4 percent of GDP after the latest revisions to 

the National Accounts, down from 5.6% previously. 

     The implied price deflator rose by 3.1% in the year to November, 

matching the October outturn, the thirteenth straight increase, but 

below the peak of 3.3% recorded in September. 

     However, discounting associated with Black Friday reduced inflation 

in the household goods sector, with the implied deflator rising by an 

annual rate of 2.6%, the smallest increase since April. 

     Excluding fuel, sales rose by 1.2% last month, or by 1.5% compared 

with November of 2016, above the MNI median forecast of a 0.4% monthly 

gain and a 0.1% annual improvement. 

     October non-fuel sales were also stronger than originally reported, 

rising by a revised 0.4% from September and recording no change over 

October of 2016. Excluding fuel, sales growth was originally reported as 

up 0.1% in October, and 0.3% below the same month of 2016. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]