MNI DATA ANALYSIS: Canada Sept Ivey PMI -11.5 Points To 50.4

By Yali N'Diaye

     OTTAWA (MNI) - The Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index dropped 11.5

points in September to 50.4, the Richard Ivey School of Business reported

Thursday. Despite the slower rate of growth indicated by the index, it continued

to point to economic expansion.

     The decline was the largest since February 2016, when the adjusted index

dropped to 53.4 from 66.0.

     Partly explaining the decline was the lower price index, which reached 68.8

in September, down 2.7 points from August. The PMI index indeed reflects the

change in the value of firms' purchases across economic sectors.

     The decline in the PMI Index took place during a month when trade-related

uncertainties increased as tensions intensified between the U.S. and Canada.

     That being said, on an unadjusted basis, the monthly decline to 56.5 from

61.3 was not out of line with prior months, noted Professor Fraser Johnson, the

director of the Ivey PMI. "I think you need to look at both," he told MNI,

playing down the two-digit drop in the adjusted index.

--EMPLOYMENT INDEX WEAKENS

     While most sub indices declined over the month, the employment index showed

the largest drop both on an adjusted and unadjusted basis. 

     The adjusted employment index declined 8.0 points to 51.6, and the

unadjusted index was down 6.6 points. 

     Statistics Canada will publish its Labor Force Survey on Friday, with

analysts in a MNI expecting employment to increase 16,700 in September after

falling 51,600 in August. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.9%

from 6.0%. 

     The Ivey PMI report showed that employment was higher for 22.6% of

respondents, lower for 11.9%, and stable for 65.5% for the adjusted reported.

     Elsewhere, the inventories index went down to 51.8 from 53.0, while

supplier deliveries was up 2.2 points to 47.5

--MNI Ottawa Bureau; +1 613 869-0916; email: yali.ndiaye@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MACDS$,M$C$$$]