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Free AccessMNI DATA ANALYSIS:Inflation, Retail Sales Beat Expectations>
By Yali N'Diaye
OTTAWA (MNI) - The pace of inflation accelerated to 2.1% in
November from 1.4% in October on a 12-month basis, Statistics Canada
reported Thursday.
This was slightly above analysts' expectations in a MNI survey,
which had centered on a 2.0% gain, and was the largest increase since
January 2017.
On a monthly basis, unadjusted CPI rose 0.3%, slightly above
expectations of a 0.2% increase.
Statistics Canada also reported strong retail sales in October,
with a monthly increase of 1.5% that was a full point above analysts'
expectations in a MNI survey. Excluding autos and parts, sales also
topped expectations with a 0.8% increase, while analysts had expected a
0.3% gain.
--CORE INFLATION UP
On the inflation front, while a jump in gasoline prices - 7.4% on
the month and 19.6% on the year - was the main positive contributor,
measures of underlying inflation also edged up, with one even
approaching 2.0%.
CPI-median rose 1.9%, CPI-trim was up 1.8%, both the highest rates
since October 2016. CPI-common rose 1.5%, down from 1.6% in October.
The overall range went to 1.5%-1.9% from 1.5%-1.7%, lifting the
average to 1.7% from 1.6%.
Excluding food and energy, total CPI was unchanged on the month and
was up 1.8% year-over-year, sharply up from 1.4% in October.
The 12-month CPI rate increased in seven of eight major components,
led by transportation (+5.9%) and shelter (+1.2%).
On a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI rose 0.5% on the month after
edging up 0.2% in October, with all major components up except health
and personal care.
Excluding food and energy, however, Canada's CPI continued to
increase at a steady pace of 0.2%.
--STRONG RETAIL VOLUMES
On the activity front, retail sales surprised on the upside with a
1.5% monthly gain, supported by a 1.4% increase in volumes.
Overall details of the report were robust, with sales widespread
across regions and sectors, starting the fourth quarter on a strong
footing.
Seven of 11 subsectors recorded higher sales, led by a 3.3% gain in
autos and parts, the largest since February 2016, supported by a 3.0%
increase in volumes.
Gasoline receipts decreased 0.6% on the month. Sales excluding
gasoline rose 1.7%.
Regionally, sales increased in all provinces.
--MNI Ottawa Bureau; email: yali.ndiaye@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MACDS$,M$C$$$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.