MNI DATA ANALYSIS: Jan Trade Gap Widens; Q4 Gap Revised Down>

-UK Jan Total Deficit Stg3.074bn vs Stg2.492bn in Dec

-UK Q4 Total Trade Gap Stg7.770bn vs Stg10.808bn previously reported

     By Laurie Laird and Jamie Satchithanantham 

     London (MNI) - The UK trade gap widened in January, while trade 

over the fourth quarter was revised to show a smaller deficit, leaving 

the sector to exert a less dramatic negative influence on later 

estimates of gross domestic product. 

     In the first month of 2018, the total trade deficit rose to 

Stg3.074 billion, compared to the MNI median forecast of Stg3.3 billion, 

up from a revised shortfall of Stg2.492 billion in December. 

     Total exports rose by 1.6% to Stg53.650 billion in January, while 

imports increased by 2.6% to Stg56.724 billion. 

     Over the final three months of the year, the total trade gap 

expanded to Stg7.770 billion, compared to the Stg10.808 billion reported 

last month, from a Stg5.067 billion shortfall in the third quarter. 

     The revision stemmed from an upward revision to exports in services 

over the final three months of last year, although exports of goods were 

revised downward, according to a National Statistics official. 

     That means net trade could subtract 0.5 percentage points from 

fourth quarter GDP growth in later revisions to the data, compared to 

the 0.7 percentage point drag reported last month, according to the 

official. However, monthly trade data are not adjusted for price changes 

and are not directly comparable to figures included in calculation of 

GDP. 

     The deficit in goods widened to Stg12.325 billion in January, from 

a revised Stg11.771 billion gap in December, compared to the MNI median 

forecast of Stg11.9 billion. 

     The trade gap in goods with the 27 other nations of the European 

Union expanded to Stg8.457 billion in January from Stg7.880 billion in 

December. 

     The non-EU trade gap fell slightly to Stg3.868 billion in January, 

from Stg3.891 billion the previous month. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]