MNI DATA ANALYSIS: Nov Trade Gap >

-UK Nov Total Deficit Stg2.804bn Stg2.270bn in Oct

-UK Nov Goods Trade Gap Stg12.231bn vs Stg11.677bn in Oct

MNI medians:

Total: -Stg1.4 bn              vs Stg1.405 bn in Oct

Goods: -Stg10.7 bn             vs Stg10.781 bn in Oct

From Q3 GDP  - neutral effect on growth of +0.4%

     By Laurie Laird and Jamie Satchithanantham 

     London (MNI) - The UK trade gap widened in the month of November, 

courtesy of xxxxxxxx, leaving trade on track to contribute 

positively/negatively to gross domestic product in the fourth quarter. 

     CAR EXPORTS? 

     Over the month of November, the total trade gap rose to 

Stg2.804 billion, from a revised Stg2.270 billion in October, compared 

to the MNI median forecast of a Stg1.4 billion shortfall. 

     Total exports rose by 0.6% to Stg52.645 billion in November, 

while imports jumped by 1.6% to Stg55.449 billion. 

     That means the deficit must fall to Stg800 million in December to 

leave the fourth quarter shortfall on par with the third quarter trade 

gap, according to a National Statistics official. The deficit fell below 

that level, to Stg657 million in April of 2017. 

     However, the official warned that monthly trade figures are not 

adjusted for price changes and are not directly comparable to data 

included in the calculation of gross domestic product. 

     The deficit in goods widened to Stg12.231 in November, from 

a revised Stg11.677 billion gap in October, compared to the MNI median 

forecast of Stg10.7 billion. 

     Exports of goods rose by 1.0% to Stg29.108 billion in November, 

while imports increase by 2.1% to Stg41.339 billion. 

But the sharp fall in sterling since the vote to leave the European 

Union did boost exports over 2017. Between January and November, 

price-adjusted goods exports rose by 8.2%, while imports increased by 

just 4.1%, according to the official. 

 The trade gap in goods with the 27 other nations of the European 

Union declined to Stg7.556 billion in November from Stg8.303 billion in 

September. Exports to EU countries increased by 2.6%, while imports fell 

by 1.7%. 

     The non-EU trade gap widened to Stg4.675 billion in 

November, from Stg3.374 billion the previous month. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]