MNI DATA ANALYSIS: Q1 Trade Gap Narrows Despite March Increase>

-UK Q1 Total Deficit Falls to Stg6.890bn from Stg7.638bn in Q4

-UK March Total Deficit Stg3.091bn vs Stg1.176bn in Feb

-UK March Goods Trade Gap Stg12.287bn vs Stg10.414bn in Feb

     By Laurie Laird and Jamie Satchithanantham 

     London (MNI) - The UK trade gap narrowed in the first quarter, 

despite a widening of the deficit in the month of March, leaving net 

trade poised to exert a modest positive effect on first quarter gross 

domestic product. 

     The shortfall slimmed to Stg6.890 billion in the opening three 

months of the year, below the Stg7.638 gap recorded in the fourth 

quarter, leaving net trade to add 0.1 percentage point to first quarter 

GDP, according to a National Statistics official. 

     However, the official cautioned that monthly trade figures are not 

adjusted for inflation and are not directly comparable to data used to 

calculate GDP. Total output expanded by just 0.1% in the first three 

months of the year, with a revised estimated due at month end. 

     In the third month of 2018, the total trade deficit increased to 

Stg3.091 billion, compared to the MNI median forecast of Stg2.0 billion, 

up from a revised shortfall of Stg1.176 billion in February. That's the 

largest gap since June of 2017. 

     Exports rose by 2.2% in March to Stg52.934 billion, while imports 

jumped by 5.8% to Stg56.025 billion, with imports boosted by inward 

shipments of non-monetary gold, according to the official. 

     The deficit in goods widened to Stg12.287 billion in March, from a 

revised Stg10.414 billion gap in February, compared to the MNI median 

forecast of Stg11.1 billion. 

     Total goods exports rose by 4.4% to Stg28.927 billion in March, 

while imports surged by 8.1% to Stg41.214 billion. 

     The trade gap in goods with the 27 other nations of the European 

Union rose to Stg8.647 billion in March from Stg8.061 billion in 

February. 

     The non-EU trade gap widened sharply to Stg3.639 billion in March, 

from Stg2.354 billion the previous month. However, the non-EU trade 

deficit declined to Stg9.887 billion in the first quarter from Stg11.377 

billion in the closing three months of 2017, due to falling imports of 

ships, clothing and aircraft, according Rob Kent-Smith, Head of National 

Accounts. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]